Haru Basho 2023

Always Regrettable Predictions: Haru XL Edition

Josh K Abi (阿炎), Asanoyama (朝乃山), Atamifuji (熱海富士), Churanoumi (美ノ海), Daiamami (大奄美), Daieisho (大栄翔), Endo (遠藤), Gonoyama, Haru Basho 2023, Hiradoumi (平戸海), Hokutōfuji (北勝富士), Hoshoryu, Ichiyamamoto (一山本), Kinbozan (金峰山), Kirishima, Kitanowaka (北の若), Kotonowaka, Kotoshoho, Meisei, Midorifuji, Mitakeumi(御嶽海), Myogiryu (妙義龍), Nishikifuji (錦富士), Nishikigi, Oho (王鵬), Onosato (大の里), Roga (狼雅), Ryuden (竜電), Sadanoumi (佐田の海), Shimazuumi (島津海), Shonannoumi, Shōdai (正代直也), Takakeishō (貴景勝), Takanosho, Takayasu (高安), Takerufuji (尊富士), Tamawashi (玉鷲), Terunofuji (照ノ富士), Tobizaru, Tsurugisho, Ura (宇良), Wakamotoharu (若元春), Ōnoshō (阿武咲)

The Kyokai’s delivered us a wonderful banzuke, lksumo has explained its relation to the Crystal Ball and now the countdown to sumo begins. Enough of this scandalous talk, how about some of our Tachiai Always Regrettable Predictions™ in literary format?

Y Terunofuji (last result: 13-2, yusho): That was a big yusho for the Yokozuna. I think he bought himself – and the sport – quite a bit of time with his results at the Hatsu basho. It was a very confident performance and quite a few of the wins didn’t appear to even need max effort, which is critical for him. Remember those idiots grumbling a few years ago about all of the “part time Yokozuna?” You should be careful what you wish for, we used to have four and now we’re lucky to have one part time Yokozuna. He is never fully fit, and I don’t think he’s going to need to finish this basho if he starts it. But he’s still – for now – the best. Prediction: Kyujo

O1E Kirishima (11-4): I’ve written recently that Kirishima’s hatsu could have gone a very different way and altered the immediate future of the sport entirely. It didn’t, but it’s a credit to him that, on a rope run, he put up a very competent performance over 15 days. I think he’s in contention this time until the end as well, although it’s not going to get any easier. This is his last tournament under the current shisho before he moves stables, and he will want to punctuate it with Yusho number 3. I think he will get it, with some bumps along the way. Prediction: 13-2 Yusho (or 12-3 and a playoff win).

O1W Hoshoryu (10-4-1): I think he was wise to withdraw following his injury in the last tournament once it was clear he couldn’t win it, having already been safely kachi-koshi. The injury will be a question mark, and his mentals always seem to mean he lets himself down in a match or two, but he has taken another step forward and I think he is in the yusho race. Prediction: 12-3 jun yusho.

O2E Takakeisho (2-2-11, kadoban): He needs 8 wins to retain his ozeki rank and I am going to make a big non-call here and say it’s a coin flip. At his best, he is an immediate yusho contender, but his chronic injury problems are difficult to ignore. I do think he will get his 5th yusho at some point, but it won’t be here. His shisho retires in 2 years and while it’s questionable whether the Kyokai would give the keys to a 29 year old (especially in light of recent events), it wouldn’t surprise me if he hung up the mawashi at that point. In any case, the schedulers have been wont to pull Ozeki from the big matches late on if they are out of contention (“doing a Shodai”), and Takakeisho could get a similar favour (or indignity) here. Prediction: 8-7.

O2W Kotonowaka (13-2 playoff loss, promoted to Ozeki): We’ve seen big names struggle upon promotion or to come back after a yusho win, after all of the various festivities. Kotonowaka has been on a big promo tour recently, but I think not winning the yusho actually helps him here: there will have been enough fanfare, but I also think he’s probably mentally strong enough to deal with it, and he comes from a vaunted sumo family. He already made plans to dispose of his father’s shikona when he took it on Juryo promotion, saying he’d take his grandfather’s name when he became an Ozeki. Big words, and he’ll allegedly back them up in May when he takes the Kotozakura name. Some folks on Sumo Forum have been slinging around a lot of “what if he’s kadoban” chat. If he’s healthy, he won’t be. Prediction: 11-4.

SE Daieisho (9-6): He’s riding a streak of 7 consecutive kachi-koshi, all with at least 9 wins and 4 in the double digits. He has been so good and so consistent and it sometimes goes a bit under the radar. It was tough to see his Ozeki run fall apart last summer, and the heat might get turned up a bit over these next few tournaments. I think he’s replaced Tamawashi as the serial thruster of the lower-san’yaku ranks. Prediction: 9-6.

SW Wakamotoharu (10-5): He’s deservedly back in san’yaku after a very competent tournament last time out where he took several scalps (including the Yokozuna’s in order to clinch his first kinboshi). I think the level is now too high for him to mount a serious Ozeki challenge but these brothers are for real. If Kirishima opts for Arashio beya after his stable closes down, it could be a real powerhouse for the next few years with the Onami brothers and the Ozeki getting crucial torikumi advantages. Wakamotoharu was a late bloomer and all the Ozeki ahead of him are his junior but I think he’ll do OK here. Prediction: 9-6.

KE Abi (8-7): I do love Abi and on every occasion that he’s been demoted from san’yaku, he’s bounced straight back with a winning record. A lot of his wins last time were against guys having awful tournaments and at this rank, I don’t know that you can really count on that to get you through. I think he’s going to yo-yo back down to the rank-and-file. Prediction: 6-9.

KW Nishikigi (8-7): Late in his career, he’s had a real blossoming into someone who’s been able to take advantage of the dearth of upwardly mobile stars over the past few years while the top division was in stasis. That period seems to be coming to an end (despite the extremely generous “there wasn’t anyone else” promotion). When you compare his dance card from last basho with what he’s likely to encounter this time, I’d be fearful he’s headed for double digit losses, at least. But I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt due to his track record, and hold him at an even ten. Prediction: 5-10.

M1E Ura (6-9): Last tournament’s respectable record on his Komusubi debut leaves him squarely in the joi and I’m just not sure that’s the place to be right now. He will spring a shock or two and I think he will be highly motivated to get back to Komusubi or better, but I don’t think it’s going to happen here. My gut tells me to tip him for 11 losses or more. If it was anywhere other than his home basho in Osaka with the crowd 200% behind him and creating a raucous atmosphere, I do think it would be a lot uglier. Prediction: 6-9.

M1W Asanoyama (9-3-3): He was firmly in the yusho hunt last time with seven straight wins, before his loss to Tamawashi took him out of the tournament. He did well to come back and get kachi-koshi. He is starting to look sharper although it will be a worry that he’s only completed two of the five top division tournaments he’s entered since returning from suspension. Turning 30 before the basho, there’s a real danger he lost his best years and he’ll be desperate to get himself back among the honours. I wouldn’t be surprised if he notches another special prize here and he also seems like a good candidate to beat the Yokozuna early in the basho, but I don’t fancy him for the yusho. Prediction: 10-5.

M2E Atamifuji (6-9): Three straight 11 win tournaments were always going to be tough to follow up, especially for someone making such a big jump forward having never previously competed higher than M8. A 6 win performance really isn’t all that bad. I think he’ll go one better this time as he acclimates. Prediction: 7-8.

M2W Meisei (9-6): It feels like he’s been established at this level for a while now, and his true talent level is much higher than where he fought the previous basho. I like his style of sumo a lot, I think the danger when looking at where he can go from here is that he has been passed along the way by a handful of top talents. He’s another one whose career, to me, reads Myogiryu: similar style of sumo, will probably bother the san’yaku ranks on occasion until he gets into his mid 30s. I’ll back him for a narrow KK here. Prediction: 8-7.

M3E Oho (10-5): He’s just so inconsistent. At first we thought maybe he’ll be a rival for Hoshoryu as they came up together, then maybe Kotonowaka as he was coming up. When I originally wrote this I thought it looked like maybe Hokuseiho would the guy who settles in for a long career of bouts against him in the rank and file, so he’ll have to find another rival again. Oho reached the top division early enough that he should easily qualify for an elder share and in 15 years we may all be talking about how exciting it is that he’s reviving his grandfather’s stable. But I wouldn’t want to be him in the joi right now. None of his previous trips above M10 ended with winning records and he never even faced san’yaku guys in those tournaments. He won’t be able to avoid it this time, and if he outperforms this score by any number of wins it’ll be a real credit to him. Prediction: 3-12.

M3W Takanosho (10-5): He turns 30 later this year, but he’s still good enough on his day that it’s staggering to think he’s been in the lower half of the rank and file for much of the last 18 months. One big issue is his inconsistency, which has long been a factor, and even more so after the 2022 injury that knocked him out of the joi after a decent run in the division’s upper reaches. His game planning also seems to be a bit faulty, as evidenced by the bout against Hoshoryu in the last basho where his tachiai gift wrapped the Ozeki one of his signature throws. He does “his brand of sumo” to a fault, even when he won’t beat a better opponent strength to strength. He probably also suffers from having his main training partner in the stable unavailable for long stretches of time due to the Ozeki’s own injury woes. Saying all of that, I think Takanosho will more or less get the job done – but it could go horribly wrong. Prediction: An 8-7 that could just as easily be a 4-11.

M4E Tobizaru (7-8): The worst thing for Tobizaru is probably that he’s not got a demotion here. Don’t get me wrong, he’s definitely shown he’s capable of producing the goods at this level, but I just think the upper tiers of the division are healthier now than they were when he was taking scalps from a listless Ichinojo and Mitakeumi in san’yaku back in 2022. Since he first reached the joi he’s been remarkably consistent, but I think he’s due a clanger and it’s coming this time. Prediction: 5-10.

M4W Hiradoumi (8-7): He’s still only 23 and finding his way. I really like his style of sumo, it’s classic Sakaigawa-beya sumo, fast tachiai, in and under the opponent’s arms. We’ve seen it from Goeido and Myogiryu and Sadanoumi and now Hiradoumi. At his age, I think he can probably shoot to replicate Myogiryu’s career. He might just about hold serve this time as long as he doesn’t crumble if and when he drops bouts against the top, top opponents. Prediction: 7-8.

M5E Midorifuji (5-10): The question mark here is over how many matches he gets sucked into against the big guns. He’s shown he can beat absolutely anyone on his day, and he’s not a one trick pony although everyone does know his signature move. He’s started poorly in four of the last five tournaments, and when you’re in the top half it’s hard to see past that. Prediction: 6-9.

M5W Onosato (11-4): It was as good of a debut basho as he reasonably could have hoped for last time, in yusho contention but for his run-ins with the big dogs in week two when his inexperience showed. To be totally honest, I don’t think he’s looked absolutely amazing in any of his basho so far, but he has continued to get better. Haters seem to think he’s the next Ichinojo, dreamers think he’s the next dai-Yokozuna. The truth is probably somewhere in between. Prediction: 10-5.

M6E Tsurugisho (9-6): Whatever you say about him, you can’t deny he’s a fighter. With maybe one good leg, the big man has shown a variety of skills to overcome his physical limitations and get the job done. Remember: this isn’t survival of the fittest, it’s survival of the fit enough. That all being said, he’s gone north of M10 twice in his career and has 20 losses to show for it, and I think that will be at least 30 after this basho at his new career high rank. Prediction: 5-10.

M6W Gonoyama (5-10): By his standards you’d say it was an awful tournament in January, but the truth is that he’d been slowing down with each tournament and clearly it has been a challenge to adjust to life in the joi. I think he’s very, very good and could be a star but it might take another year or so until he’s in his prime. He’s 3 for 3 on kachi-koshi in his hometown basho and I think he’ll do it again, just. Prediction: 8-7.

M7E Kinbozan (7-8): The last ten months haven’t been especially kind to the Kazakhstani, with most of his wins coming against those ranked lower than him. He should be able to mostly avoid the big hitters this time out. There’s something just a bit awkward about his sumo right now, he hasn’t been a great watch. Prediction: 8-7.

M7W Tamawashi (8-7): The iron man just continues to do what he does. It’s been a couple years since that magical 2022 where he notched a flurry of kinboshi and a yusho. I still don’t think the Yokozuna will be keen to see the 39 year old again soon, but I think that won’t happen for a while yet unless he puts on another yusho challenge from the lower reaches of the division this year. It’s been almost six years since he put together three consecutive winning tournaments, and I bet that stretch will continue, if only just. Prediction: 7-8.

M8E Onosho (10-5): Here’s a guy who can have an absolutely tragic score and still look pretty good, or put up double digit wins without looking like he got out of first gear. Apart from Kotoshoho, it was only the absolute top guys who put dirt on him last time (including a hilariously naive loss to the Yokozuna). It’s very rare for him to notch back to back kachi-koshi but I probably have too much faith. Prediction: 9-6.

M8W Takayasu (2-4-9): By and large, he starts pretty well in tournaments and then the wheels come off in the second week, either due to stamina and injury or the increase in competition. I’d back him for a decent tournament if he’s good enough to get through 15 days. He’s 34 but he’s still good enough for this level. Prediction: 10-5.

M9E Hokutofuji (4-5-6): Like Takayasu, he’s one where if he’s fit, he’s just too good for the lower half of the division, even as he’s now almost 32. There’s a little more competition for places now though, so I do question whether he can properly assert himself now that makuuchi is slightly healthier than it has been the last few years. Prediction: 9-6.

M9W Kotoshoho (9-6): He’s still fairly young at 24 but needless to say, things have not worked out quite the way we envisioned when he rocketed to the top of the division after his debut. It’s possible he went too fast too soon as – fitness aside – he never really seems to have recovered in terms of form since that brutal 2-13 three years ago. He’s got some super training partners in the heya and his brother is on the way, but it’s hard for me to buy the upside right now. Prediction: 8-7.

M10E Shodai (4-11): Only Shodai could simultaneously grab a kinboshi off the champion and also put in a performance so bad that he’s at one of the three lowest ranks of his entire top division career. He can’t be happy to be at this level, but the last 18 months have been tragic and he’ll do well to stop the rot. I think he will, temporarily. He’s never had a make-koshi when ranked below Maegashira 5 so it would be absolutely shocking for him not to turn things around in Osaka. Prediction: 9-6.

M10W Mitakeumi (6-9): Two former Ozeki at Maegashira 10. Some days he still has it, but when he hasn’t got it, he looks really awful. There is no “if he gets healthy,” stage of his career to follow: this is about how he manages his injuries on the decline. He’s put up two winning tournaments in the past two years, but I do think he’ll get a third here. Prediction: 9-6.

M11E Ichiyamamoto (5-10): In one sense it’s mission complete as we finally saw the space-time continuum ripped apart by his match against Abi. He’s never had a kachi-koshi above M14 in his thirteen top division tournaments and I don’t think he gets one in the fourteenth. Prediction: 6-9.

M11W Sadanoumi (6-9): Somehow, this is his 51st basho in the top division and so he only needs to hang on for another year and a half to qualify to open his own heya. Whether he has the backing for that is another question, but it has been a remarkable late career resurgence from a guy who spent most of his career in the lower reaches of the division. Of course, much of that run across 2022 and early 2023 is probably also attributable to the drop in quality in the division in that period, but you can only beat what’s in front of you. He’ll be 37 when Natsu approaches but he can still do a job here if – and it’s a big if – he manages his fitness. Prediction: 8-7.

M12E Shonannoumi (4-11): He took an absolute beating in Tokyo and a lot of the losses were racked up against lower ranking opponents. That’s three make-koshi in four top division basho and I think he’s going to get another one. Prediction: 7-8.

M12W Shimazuumi (9-6) – The story of his career has mostly been solid, steady, slow progress, and he looked impressive enough in his debut basho. The competition this time out might be a bit too steep. Prediction: 6-9.

M13E Ryuden (3-12): He’s been all over the place in terms of his top division performances since his return from bad boy status. He’s just so inconsistent, and when he gets on a bad run you ask when it’s ever going to end. Equally, when he’s on, he’s one of the most tenacious fighters you’ll see in sumo. But I think he’s lost a bit of that spark. I think he’s in a Darwin match on Day 15: it could go either way but I’m calling tails. Prediction: 7-8.

M13W Churanoumi (7-8): He looked fairly assured in the first weeks of his two top division basho, but faded a bit in the second week of both. He had a good 2023, but based on what I’d seen of him in Juryo it’s hard to be totally convinced. He could be in trouble. Prediction: 5-10.

M14E Nishikifuji (10-5 at J2): He made a promising enough start to his top division career but then the wheels absolutely fell off. He stopped the rot in a Juryo division he clearly doesn’t want any part of. I don’t think he gets a kachi-koshi, but I do think he’ll get a result that keeps him up for another go. Prediction: 7-8.

M14W Kitanowaka (10-5 at J3): He certainly has his fans as I saw in person at Kokugikan in January, although I also see a guy who is very talented but hasn’t quite been able to put it all together. He could well reach san’yaku before his boss Hakkaku retires in a few years, but I think it’s a gradual process. His most common score in Juryo was 8-7 and that feels about right here. In any case, I think he’ll stay up. Prediction: 8-7.

M15E Myogiryu (5-10): He had a dip to Juryo a few years ago, but by and large, anytime he’s really been in danger he’s been able to pull out a positive result to sustain him for 6 more months, until he needs another one. Always a fan favourite and even more so in front of his “home” crowd, the man from Hyogo-ken actually hasn’t had a winning record in Osaka in 8 years. I’d back him to snap that streak here, maybe even on senshuraku. Prediction: 8-7.

M15W Roga (9-6 at J3): Marginal gains is a buzzword in sport these days and that seems to be the order of the day for Roga, whose rise has been steady if unspectacular since those in the biz were tipping him for big things five years ago. He still has great potential, but since his first promotion to Makushita, he has a 14-21 record in the matches after he attains kachi-koshi. That’s approaching a meaningful sample size that, to these eyes, shows a real lack of killer instinct and raises a question mark over whether he could ever win a yusho at any level. I think it’s a coin flip here as to whether he gets the wins he needs to stay up. Prediction: 7-8.

M16E Endo (5-10): No one will be cheering louder for him than the friendly Tenkaiho, whose seat in the Kyokai (thought to be on loan from Endo) must be feeling rather warm, as Endo spent the last basho dancing around the trap door. A veteran of precisely four basho outside the top division in his entire career, it seems potentially unlikely that the 33 year old would want to mess around outside of the big stage (especially as he’s already met the requirements to open his own stable some day). He did just about enough to keep himself up last time, but two consecutive double-digit make-koshi has him in a dangerous spot and his sumo has looked at times listless. I don’t think this is going to be a comfortable ride but I think he’ll do enough. Prediction: 8-7.

M16W Daiamami (8-7 at J1): He’s spent 11 tournaments in the top division, posted losing records in 8 of them and double digit losses or the equivalent in 5 of those. The eye test both recently and over the longer term doesn’t convince me either. If I’m going to bet on these other guys to stay up, someone needs to go back down. Prediction: 4-11.

M17E Takerufuji (13-2 Yusho at J10): He’s been more or less dominant to this point with a career record of 56-8. This is going to be the biggest one-basho leap – in terms of opponent quality – of his career to-date. This might be some bias based on the Isegahama-beya track record, but he hasn’t been overawed or overmatched at any level yet and I’m going to tip him for a sansho. Prediction: 10-5.

The Updated Haru Basho Experience

Josh K Haru Basho 2023, Ura (宇良) , ,

I’ve long been open about the fact that I view the Osaka honbasho as one of the more definitive sumo experiences. While the hallowed ground of the Kokugikan in Ryogoku is the ultimate destination for any pilgrim seeking dosukoi action, the EDION Arena in Osaka in some ways showcases the most romantic elements of sumo. Or at least it did.

Before the pandemic, the Osaka tournament was notable for many things. Among them, the raucous nature of the Kansai match-going fanbase, and also the proximity of spectators to the rikishi as they emerge from the shitakubeya and make their way down the hanamichi to the side of the dohyo.

This last feature was also a staple of the year-end Kyushu basho in Fukuoka, but the EDION Arena’s layout had long been unique for the fact that souvenir shoppers in the hallways would likely end up intoxicated from the scent of binzuke as combatants of all shapes and sizes made their way to and from the arena throughout the day. It was not uncommon for fans to mix it with rikishi or even get handshakes, autographs or photos with sekitori at the business end of the torikumi.

And speaking of intoxication, before the edict to “cheer inside of your heart” went into place as a mitigating strategy in the fight against the spread of the coronavirus, you’d often find dyed-in-the-wool (or dyed-in-the-cotton-cheer-towel) supporters of a particular rikishi or heya screaming out messages of support or instruction to “GANBATTE!” for hours on end from the pacy schedule of Sandanme right through to the lengthy rituals leading up to a top division bout.

Before the basho, I remarked on these pages that I had some trepidation for what I might find. Osaka has always been my favourite basho. Maybe it lacks of a bit of depth compared to the three Tokyo tournaments in terms of the fan experience that you can find inside the venue itself. But the personality, feeling and emotion of the basho – never more showcased than when a Kansai native mounts the dohyo in front of a full house, lights and cameras – for me is more than worth the annual pilgrimage. I had ringed the first week of the tournament on the calendar ever since Japan announced its reopening to foreign visitors, and could not wait to reintroduce it as a staple of my travel calendar.

So, what did we find?

A bit of a mixed bag, truth be told, but it was mostly a return to the experience I knew and loved. Some elements were missing, while others improved on my past memories.

First let’s talk logistics. I flew directly into Osaka’s Kansai International Airport from elsewhere in Asia and this was the correct decision. Post-pandemic, Japan has had mixed reviews for the entry experience into the country. In some places it is easy, others convoluted, and some ports like Tokyo’s Narita have been plagued by hours-long queues. Entering the country at Kansai was a relatively smooth experience, amplified by an express train taking me to my hotel 2 blocks from the venue near Osaka’s Namba hub in the Naniwa district of the second city.

Tickets were procured through Tachiai’s partner BuySumoTickets.com. I’ve long been a user of their service and could not be happier with the seats or the special gift bags we received for our business. I had the tickets delivered directly to the hotel in Osaka on the day before my arrival, and after presenting my detailed delivery confirmation from Japan Post which BuySumoTickets provided, the front desk team was able to track down the envelope in the back room.

A word here about sumo tickets – they are the equivalent of cash, and can only be issued once, so coordination and attention to the package is key. A lot of first time visitors to a basho really seem to struggle with this. We’ve heard stories of people losing or failing to turn up with tickets, bringing their receipts and expecting to have it honoured by the Kyokai. They won’t. But once inside, they are very accommodating of foreign visitors and brought us directly to our box.

I went back and forth before the basho about whether to order the “Arena S” seats (hardback chairs with a removable cushion) or a 2 person masu-seki. I don’t find the boxes to normally be comfortable for a full day’s viewing, but the 2 person box is a great feature of Osaka’s venue. Most fans that I know don’t travel in groups of 4 and don’t have a need for the 4 person boxes which are most prevalent across the venues. While I was a little worried about the distance from the box to the dohyo, I shouldn’t have been. BuySumoTickets managed to secure an absolutely outstanding view from our seats.

One note about the layout of the EDION Arena is that unlike in Tokyo, which has the faux-cherry blossom lined chaya-michi alley where the various tea-houses supply luxury gift packages to tanimachi and other fans, the section of the EDION Arena housing the chaya’s booths is actually outside the main gate of the arena. Osaka tickets grant you one re-entry, so if you have ordered a lunch set or gift set and don’t pick it up on the way in, you will have to use your one re-entry in order to go out the front gate and retrieve it. After this, you won’t have any more exit and entry privileges.

Our gift sets came replete with a very generously portioned bento, a traditional dessert, program, various other souvenirs including sumo chocolates, and of course, the famous sumo yakitori. While I normally will want to sample food from the venue throughout the day, this package was simply so filling that there was no need to report on other options available within the venue. I can report however that the various gift shops were full with the usual omiyage gift boxes of sumo themed cookies and snacks, and yakitori, chips and drinks were available at points in the venue. Chankonabe did not however appear to be available in the venue, at least as far as I could tell.

The Arena’s hallways, so well-known for its previous ability to interact with rikishi, had been re-organised since the pandemic. Rikishi walkways to the hanamichi had now been fully segregated, with all of the previous shopping areas in the vicinity of the shitakubeya moved to other areas of the venue. This is obviously meant to limit casual interaction between rikishi and members of the general public, although it is still possible to linger outside the shitakubeya entrances from a distance. But there is no longer any casual engagement with sumotori that’s possible inside the venue. It’s possible that those wishing to engage with very low rankers could have more luck earlier in the day, but punters should be aware that there is a security presence in this area. You will, however, still see lower-rankers entering and leaving the venue throughout the day by the front entrance.

While rikishi are less-spotted, oyakata are still very much milling around and tending to their various duties. Once inside, the very first blue-jacketed-giant we came across was Tomozuna-oyakata, the recently retired Brazilian fan favourite Kaisei. He was happy to pose for photos with fans in the hallways. Word also travelled around the venue that former Sekiwake Okinoumi was performing fansa in an effort to drum up interest and ticket sales ahead of his forthcoming danpatsushiki, although I didn’t personally see him.

As I’ve said many times, Osaka’s atmosphere, for me, is unmatched. The crowd warmed up gradually throughout the day until eventually exploding into life late on. I can’t say it was exactly like the basho that I used to know, but you could see flashes of it here and there. It’s not sumo without a heavily drunken uncle veering between punching the air, slumping over half asleep or effing and blinding in reaction to the day’s events. Happily, the next box contained a local karaoke bar owner who was happy to oblige in all of these things and also engage in some spirited banter about which rikishi had been bad boys in recent years for their misadventures in the company of deep-pocketed sponsors or in gambling dens or with alcohol or ladies or all of the above. Some of the conjecture was too hot for TV, but you’ll just have to believe me.

I attended Day 3 of the basho, and its first week coincided with Japan’s loosening of mask restrictions. While mask observance was obviously still heavily prevalent throughout the venue (and Osaka and Tokyo generally), it was also clear that fans were starting to feel more comfortable eating, drinking, socialising and cheering in the public space. After a couple years of tournaments plagued by a lack of real fan engagement and cheering, where drinking beverages apart from water had been forbidden and thunderous winning moves were met with timid clapping, it was good to see the arena sparking back to life.

While the sumo continued on for several matches after, I think the highlight in terms of atmosphere will have been the match contested and won by Osaka native Ura. As I have said already, I felt in this basho that he rubber-stamped his position as heir-and-successor to Osaka’s Ikioi as local hero. While this may have felt obvious for sometime, it just isn’t right to see an exciting victory met by golf claps. The magic of Osaka is when the venue explodes into life as the flashbulbs pop from the side of the dohyo at a moment that fills the fans with pride for the performance of a native son. The sakura-tinted mawashi wearing man from Kise beta duly obliged to ensure no matter what else took place, the locals would be sent home happy.

All in all, it did not disappoint. It would be inaccurate to say that I felt the frisson that I used to before going to a basho. But I think that will come, perhaps whenever I am next able to visit the Kokugikan. I think more than anything the prevailing feeling was one of relief, of being able to return to something we used to know and love. Of feeling thankful to be back at sumo again.

Haru Basho Contest Winner

Andy Haru Basho 2023

We have a winner for the BuySumoTickets contest! We actually had five entrants who correctly guessed BOTH Osaka-native Ura’s wins (9) AND that of the tie-breaker, Ochiai (10). Kirk, aka Shussekiyama, was also eligible for the tickets since he will be in Japan. But I still want to give recognition to the full list of correct entries:

  • Kirk (Shussekiyama)
  • Jonathan Wagner
  • Daniel Hazelrigg
  • Aric Wu
  • Boris Cardinale

I must say, I was way off with my own pick. But pretty much everyone thought both men would secure kachi-koshi, winning records. There were only a handful of more pessimistic entries, including mine. I know Ura had fallen down the banzuke but I didn’t think he would be that successful. I’d possibly underestimated the home crowd boost in Ura’s favor.

Juryo is also far from a cake walk, so Ochiai’s impressive 10-win debut will lift him into the meat of the division. How many tournaments do you think it will take for him to make it to Makuuchi? Nakamura, now known as Onosato, will be nipping at his heels this year as both try to rocket into the top division.

Thank you to the winners, and thank you to all of the participants. I will need to come up with something a little more difficult for the tie breaker next time. Maybe guess the number of wins by yorikiri?

Haru 2023 Winners & Losers

Josh K Daieisho (大栄翔), Enho, Hakuho (白鵬), Haru Basho 2023, Hokuseiho (北青鵬), Hokutōfuji (北勝富士), Hoshoryu, Ichinojo (逸ノ城), Kakuryu (鶴竜), Kinbozan (金峰山), Kiribayama (霧馬山), Kisenosato (稀勢の里), Midorifuji, Mitakeumi(御嶽海), Ryuden (竜電), Takakeishō (貴景勝), Takayasu (高安), Ura (宇良), Wakamotoharu (若元春), Wakatakakage

In the past, I’ve chanced my arm at a rundown of all of the 42 rikishi in the top division and their performance in the preceding tournament. The problem with doing these kinds of posts is that there are an awful of lot of guys whose performance doesn’t really bear writing about. If you’re a rikishi that was swirling around the Darwin Funnel™ going into the final weekend, then there are good chances I’m talking about you.

So instead, this time, I’m going to give my thoughts on who won and didn’t win in this basho. It will be controversial and some people will be angry! I can’t wait. We’ll save the best for last, and start with the…

Losers

Sumo – But for some final day drama, this was a forgettable makuuchi tournament. It will not be referenced among the all time greats. Sumo is the loser when its top rankers do not challenge. The way the sport is set up requires big performances from big names or other guys dethroning big names. The title race changed hands twice in 15 days. Yikes.

Takakeisho – As Andy remarked, he went from rope run to kadoban in a matter of days. There’s no way to spin that positively.

Daieisho – He will move up to Sekiwake and posted a very strong basho, but he lost the yusho in horrific fashion: two virtually identical losses on the final day to the same opponent, having only needed to win one. Then, in the second defeat, he was given the hope of redemption by a monoii, only for that hope to be cruelly dashed upon confirmation of the final result. Woof.

Takayasu – His confident, assured, 6-0 start raised the idea that this might finally be his basho, but an awful fade took the dream away. Again. A couple of extremely convincing wins towards the end signalled what could have been. 10-5 is in no way a bad result, but finishing 4-5 in yet another basho that was his for the taking was extremely disappointing. When people reference Takayasu being the bridesmaid, they often reference his mighty collection of Jun-Yusho scorelines – but there are just as many of these tournaments that don’t show up in any Sumo Reference box score and where Takayasu had it all to lose and then did just that. As fans, we cannot alter fate, so the best we can do is just cheer him on whole-heartedly and hope that one day it will change.

Hoshoryu – You might think I’m crazy putting a couple ten-win guys and a twelve-win guy in the loser category. To be fair, you could put 41 guys in the loser category and you’d have a case for all of them. That’s how sports works. This is another case of “what could have been?” I firmly agreed with Herouth’s tweet early in the basho that Hoshoryu needs to shelve his niramiai until he’s got a couple Emperor’s Cups in the bag. Staring down a former Ozeki in Takayasu as if he’s the top dog, only to get embarrassingly dropped on the chief shimpan – and a cocky approach to a Nishikigi match that ended in defeat – showed a rikishi who’s simply not ready for the top two ranks.

He could have won this yusho outright with a more professional approach to his sumo. It may seem like we’re being hard on a rikishi who once again displayed some fabulous sumo, but whatever, if anything, is between his ears continues to let him down. The best thing he can take from this basho is that he’ll probably be S1E and he’s potentially just put down the first basho of an ozeki run. But I’ll come right out and say it: he’s frittered away losses in the last two tournaments which would have had him at the rank already. While he’s still young, more top prospects are coming and he will not want to look back on this period as the golden opportunity that he missed.

Hokutofuji – He’s been the master of come-from-behind kachikoshi in the past, and looked to be well on his way with 7 straight wins after digging himself an 0-4 hole. Alas, he couldn’t find the one win in his last four days to get the job done, and continues a slide that will leave him outside the joi for an entire calendar year.

Wakatakakage – I left a stat in the comments here this week that since his sekiwake promotion, he’s been 15-20 over days 1-5 of tournaments, and 31-11 over days 6-11 (before the final, most difficult matches for a sekiwake). If he could start better when his schedule was lightest, he’d have already been an Ozeki. When you consistently start so poorly, the issue is either preparation or mental or both. This tournament proved to be one escape act too far, with an 0-5 hole proving too much to overcome. His 7-1 rescue attempt over days 6 to 13 looked to have him on solid ground until the injury that led to a late kyujo. One early win and this all would have been a non issue with kachikoshi in hand, but instead he’ll have to completely rebuild from komusubi next basho – if indeed he’s able to return (reports are that he may not).

Mitakeumi – His body hasn’t looked right since the injuries that zapped his chance at an Ozeki career upon his promotion to the rank. This tournament was ghastly to watch, a 4-11 that left me wondering at the end where the 4 wins could ever have come from.

Ryuden – I think this was just a basho too far on the meteoric comeback trail for one of sumo’s latest bad boys. It’s a credit to him that he mostly looked very genki en route to his 13 loss campaign. Every rikishi fights hurt, some more than others, but Ryuden’s performances were vastly superior to the results that he got (the eye test would credit him with a 6-9 or 5-10 at worst). But nevertheless, he will take a massive demotion after this basho. You have to call that what it is.

Winners

Sumo – Sumo can be the loser and also be the winner. You can have grey areas in life, deal with it! With makuuchi being the equivalent of pulling a green turban out of your fishing net when you were expecting a sea urchin, Juryo emerged as a thrilling division. We also can’t overlook the top division’s final day drama, a new yusho winner whose rank and profile is good for sumo, and the fact that much of lower san’yaku managed to hang around the title race in its final days.

Kiribayama – He’s now one of the most technically proficient top rankers. Some could be forgiven for looking at an 8-11-12 Ozeki promotion after this basho as reasonable given the current state of the sport (and some Tachiai commenters have already posed it as an idea), but with two fusen-sho in there he’s always going to need another strong tournament. You’d think 9 next time could be enough to make things interesting, but 10 should bank it.

Small guys doing crazy stuff – Ura, Midorifuji, and Enho all had highly entertaining tournaments, even if it did fizzle a bit from Midorifuji after his first loss. Credit to these guys and their weird sumo for giving us box office entertainment.

Juryo – it was always going to be a good tournament with 4 former makuuchi yusho winners in the division plus a catalogue of top prospects, but strong performances from big names made this one of the marquee collections of second division talent in ages.

Ichinojo – Everyone expected another Asanoyama yusho, but the big man blasted his way to a 14-1, making his Juryo return brief.

Ura – He was king of the dohyo in his native Osaka, and highly entertaining and mostly successful in the ring. He received rapturous applause and a thunderous reception in the EDION arena. His comeback has firmly sealed his place as successor to Ikioi as Osaka’s hometown hero.

Nishonoseki-beya/Kisenosato – The mid-basho announcement of the recruitment of generational talent Nakamura stole all the headlines (more on that later), but his squad also grabbed the makushita yusho through journeyman Ryuo, had a handful of other good prospect results (Kayo, Takahashi, Miyagi) and a successful return to sekitori level for Tomokaze.

Kakuryu-oyakata – Much has been made of the close attentions the former Yokozuna has paid Kiribayama since his retirement, having taken his compatriot under his wing after moving from Izutsu to Michinoku beya. Kiribayama’s rise has corresponded with this tutelage, and it bodes well for Kakuryu’s future as shisho – be that in his own heya someday or a Michinoku-beya (including Kiribayama) that he could yet inherit upon the incumbent’s retirement.

Miyagino-beya/Hakuho – the top 8 rankers in the stable all scored winning records, with Enho starting to close in on a comeback to the top division and Ochiai putting out a very solid and entertaining sekitori debut. Hokuseiho’s 9 wins on his top flight debut were overshadowed by Kinbozan’s debut, and it’s clear that his ponderous sumo may lead him to struggle for consistency as he approaches the joi for the first time. I’d probably revise his ceiling to be a more technical version of Ichinojo. But for now, all good.

Isegahama-beya – Midorifuji took the headlines, but Nishikifuji put up another very solid basho. Meanwhile, an initially hopeless looking Takarafuji found his patented defend-and-extend technique late on to clinch a kachi-koshi when the conversation on nakabi was about whether he could really be demoted to Juryo. Plus, the heya boasted winning records for top prospects Hayatefuji and Takerufuji. As for the Yokozuna? Even he’s a bit of a winner in absentia, as Takakeisho’s rope-run collapsing amid the removal of Wakatakakage from the Ozeki conversation (for the time being) means that Terunofuji’s seat isn’t especially hot in spite of his lengthy absence.

Wakamotoharu – His 11 win basho will see him overtake his brother as heyagashira. He has grown gradually into the top division and looked at points to have an outside shot at the Haru yusho. It will be curious to now see whether he or Wakatakakage can mount an ozeki run soonest – if he’s able to get the yusho in May, one would think Wakamotoharu could even grab it in his next basho.

Kinbozan – In a tournament that boasted three fairly high(ish) profile debutants in the top division, some props should be due to Kinbozan for his excellent performance. While it’s not unusual to see talents who have blown through Juryo come up and grab double digits in their first top division tournament, Kinbozan did it with a minimum of fuss and some excellent sumo. He (and Juryo’s Gonoyama) still looks like a rikishi that has a lot of physical development until he finds his final competitive physique, and it will be interesting to see how he takes on higher challenges in the division. With Hokuseiho impressing but also lumbering at times to victory, and Bushozan being mostly overmatched, we should put some credit on Kise-beya’s Kazakhstani special prize winner.

Who are we forgetting? Who are you angry about me calling a loser? Let’s hear it in the comments!