Year: 2023

Banzuke Crystal Ball Postmortem

lksumo Aki Basho 2022

This is a bit late due to the holidays, but I thought I’d briefly review my banzuke forecast. Thanks to Andy for filling in and for the kinds words! The Crystal Ball really lived up to its name this time around: of the 42 Makuuchi wrestlers, my guess had 40 (!!) at the correct rank, with 31 placed exactly at the right rank and side. My only big miss was giving some leniency to M1e Asanoyama (4-4-7) by placing him at M6w, ahead of Shonannoumi and Ichiyamamoto; the banzuke committee placed him behind both, which is the correct choice if you go purely by rank and record. Asanoyama is the only rikishi I missed by one full rank, and Shonannoumi was the only other rikisihi I didn’t have at the correct rank (7e instead of 6w). My other misses were limited to 4 East-West swaps, two of which I consider completely unpredictable, and two of which I called out in my prediction post (quoted in italics):

  • I may not have been lenient enough to Wakamotoharu: Correct. He’s at M1e, ahead of Atamifuji.
  • I went against the math and moved Endo ahead of Churanoumi, which could well turn out to be a mistake: Indeed. If I had stuck with the math here and for Asanoyama, I would have tied for the winning score in Guess The Banzuke. Frustrating, since I tried to anticipate how the banzuke committee might favor higher-ranked rikishi, instead of sticking with my own quantitative approach.

One swap that I don’t think most people anticipated was S2e Kotonowaka (11-4) leapfrogging S1e Daieisho (9-6) for the top Sekiwake rank, something the committee hasn’t been doing since 2011. The best guess here, courtesy of Ryan from Grand Sumo Breakdown, is that the deciding factor was Kotonowaka’s jun-yusho. The other switch no one saw coming was the placement of Kotoshoho, who is coming up from Juryo, ahead of M5e Onosho (3-12), who not only didn’t get any leniency despite his high rank, but got bumped down half a rank more than the math called for in favor of someone being promoted from the second division.

Now on to the basho, which promises to be an exciting one across the board, especially if some of the recently injured rikishi (Terunofuji, Asanoyama, Hakuoho…) are back and in fighting form. I might do a follow-up post on what I’m most excited about across the different divisions. Given the quirks of the calendar, the January tournament starts on the latest possible day, January 14, so we have some time to cover the top storylines!

Winter Update 2023.12.29

Andy Hatsu 2024, Heya, Stables (Heya)

There are a couple more news-worthy items which have come up that I must share with you all, both related to heya. First up, Kakuryu has secured a kabu and will branch out with his own, independent stable: Otowayama. He takes Tokotsuru, the top-ranked Tokoyama (hairdresser) along with a couple of deshi, Hagane and his new recruit. Hagane is the only banzuke-ranked wrestler currently listed on the heya profile. This is fantastic news as the search has been a running drama for a few years with the 5-year shot clock running down.

Secondly, former Homasho (Tatsutagawa-oyakata) has officially been named acting stablemaster at Shikoroyama-beya, following the passing of Terao. Both he and Kakuryu…oops, Otowayama… will be gearing up in earnest for Hatsubasho once the New Year holidays calm down.

These machinations are often difficult for me to track in my head, so I am in the process of building a visualization based on the Kabu history pages at the SumoDB. There are a bunch of ways to look at these and I’m starting off with several different Gantt-style charts to look at the changes through time.

This first one that I would like to share is a list of all kabu, with color indicating whether the kabu holder is the stable master or a coach within another heya. What becomes apparent is that several names have long histories of being independent (Izutsu, Nishonoseki, Sadogatake) while others do not, like Otowayama and Ikazuchi. Homasho’s Tatsutagawa kabu has had a bit of a history as an independent heya but not as storied as Isegahama, obviously.

One thing that I would like to do is to tie the heya to exactly how storied or successful they were (have been). I’m trying to work out a defensible metric that I can use to gage such success through time. Maybe with the number of sanyaku wrestlers or top division wrestlers? It’s a tough call. Would you say that Oitekaze tops Isegahama as the most dominant heya, currently? Another tab on the visual already shows the holder by rank, as pictured on the left. Yokozuna are yellow, with lower ranking wrestlers darker shades of green. It’s interesting to see that according to the SumoDB data, gyoji had owned some of the kabu in the past.

I’ve got a draft version of another visualization that tracks the kabu by holder so that we can see how often some of these swap hands. Kobo, one of Hakuho’s former stablemates at Miyagino-beya, traded five different kabu during the ten years he remained a coach. Sanoyama is another kabu which seems to trade hands frequently, being held by Konishiki, Chiyotaikai, and recently Satoyama. However, with that visualization, there are so many holders and so few colors that it looks a bit crazy. Once I figure out a clean way to pair that down, it will be more helpful.

Winter News Update 2023.12.27

Andy Banzuke (番付), Hatsu 2024 ,

We sumo fans get a bit of a Christmas present this year with the release of the banzuke for Hatsu 2024. That probably goes double for the big Ura fans out there as he was promoted to Komusubi for the first time. Congratulations, Ura, and welcome to sanyaku! And, Congratulations to Leonid, too, for really knocking this banzuke guess out of the park. A few swaps here and there but his forecast really hit the mark.

Other big stories from the new ranking list are the first time promotions of Onosato and Shimazuumi to the top division, while Aoiyama, Kotoshoho and Bushozan make their returns. Takayasu also makes a return…to sanyaku! The former Ozeki ended the year strong and may see 2024 as his best shot to reclaim his rank and/or win a yusho. Well, at least his fans hold out hopes.

Obviously, at the top of the banzuke we have the lone Yokozuna, Terunofuji. Hoping to join him is Kirishima. By virtue of his 13-2 yusho in November, the Ozeki is on his first tsunatori or “rope-run”. If he wins in Tokyo, he will be a lock for elevation to the sport’s highest rank. If he can do it with Terunofuji’s full participation, it could cement his legitimacy.

With Terunofuji’s third consecutive kyujo in November, his seventh in eight tournaments, one wonders if he can not only come back in fighting shape but last another year and a half until Isegahama’s retirement. Or, what is probably more likely is that he could come back and shut me up, entirely, by competing for the yusho. Flame me for being the Debbie Downer, if you will, but I really do wonder what the plan is here and how it might be impacted by a new Yokozuna.

Speaking of promotion candidates, we definitely have a couple of eager Sekiwake here. Either would likely require a yusho for any long-shot promotion after Hatsu; but both can set themselves up for some real promotion chatter in Osaka with strong performances here. I think we would really want to see a strong first week from Daieisho, in particular. He has faltered early in each of his last two tournaments. Beating maegashira with consistency will be a strong sign.

At the other end of the banzuke, we will get to see the first action of Ajigawa-beya recruit, Anhibiki. It will be interesting to see if he can follow the lead of Aonishiki and Anosho and claim the lower division crown. Anosho has already cracked his way into Makushita and Aonishiki will be one to watch in Jonidan. Ex-Aminishiki is developing a nice outfit there to fill up this great looking building.

Well, we here at Tachiai are just eager for the action to start!

Hatsu Banzuke Crystal Ball

lksumo Aki Basho 2022

I don’t have time for a long banzuke post, but for the record, here is my official Guess The Banzuke entry, with a few comments below.

Based on other publicly posted entries, I may not have been lenient enough to Wakamotoharu and Abi, as some guesses have them either at M1e and M2e, respectively, or even at M1e and M1w. Ryuden and Nishikigi could easily be swapped. Putting Meisei all the way down at M9w seems harsh, but I didn’t see a clean way to move him higher without being unfair to Hiradoumi and Mitakeumi. I went against the math and moved Endo ahead of Churanoumi, which could well turn out to be a mistake. And it seems fairly popular to rank Takarafuji above Onosato. Of course, the banzuke committee is known for throwing in some wrinkles none of the guessers anticipate. The official banzuke comes out on Christmas Day; I probably won’t review it until after the new year.

EDIT: For completeness, since I have 5 rikishi coming up from Juryo (Kotoshoho, Onosato, Bushozan, Shimazuumi, Aoiyama), 5 Makuuchi rikishi will be dropping down: Kitanowaka, Roga, Kotoeko, Tohakuryu, Nishikifuji. The 5 promotion claims are all strong, and the 5 demotion cases are clear-cut, so I would be very surprised if any of these exchanges did not take place.