What’s at stake on the final day? A lot!
The Yusho Race
Komusubi Daiesho (12-2) is the sole leader, chased by Sekiwake Kiribayama (11-3). Everyone else is out of the running. And the leaders face off in the musubi-no-ichiban! Kiribayama must win to force a playoff rematch for the cup.
The San’yaku
We’ll have at least 3 Sekiwake: S1w Hoshoryu (10-4) and S2e Kiribayama (11-3) by virtue of their winning records, and K2e Daieisho (12-2) by virtue of reaching the requisite 11 wins. K1e Wakamotoharu (10-4) can join them by winning tomorrow against K1w Kotonowaka (9-5), who will remain at Komusubi, where he will be joined by injured S1e Wakatakakage (7-7-1).
So the incumbents will sort themselves into 3S/3K or 4S/2K, leaving no open slots. If M1w Shodai (9-5) can beat erstwhile leader M5w Midorifuji (10-4), 10 wins might be enough to create an extra Komusubi position; otherwise, I don’t think we’ll see any promotions.
Makuuchi-Juryo Exchanges
J1e Asanoyama (12-2) and J3e Ichinojo (13-1) have definitely earned promotion. The Juryo yusho race also comes down to these two; Asanoyama has to beat boy wonder J14w Ochiai (10-4) and hope that J9e Tsushimanada (4-10) is sufficiently motivated to avoid demotion to Makushita to hand a loss to Ichinojo—a big ask indeed. If this transpires, the two head to a playoff in a rematch of their Day 4 bout won by Ichinojo; any other outcome hands the title to the big man.
Whose spots will they take? M14w Bushozan (4-10) is definitely on his way back to Juryo. M11e Azumaryu (3-11) has a demotable record, and must win and hope for a loss by Mitoryu for any chance of a reprieve. M17e Mitoryu (7-7) and M16w Tsurugisho (7-7) each need a win for safety, while losses would put them in serious danger. I think M12e Kagayaki (5-9) has done enough, but I’d be trying hard to beat Tsurugisho to make certain if I were him.
If those in danger start piling up losses, the door could open to J1w Tohakuryu (7-7) if he wins, J6e Gonoyama (10-4), or J3w Shonannoumi (8-6).
Juryo-Makushita Exchanges
The promotion queue looks like this:
- Ms2w Chiyosakae (5-1)
- Ms2e Fujiseiun (4-3)
- Ms3e Tokihayate (4-3)
- Ms3w Kawazoe (4-3)
- Ms5e Chiyonoumi (4-3) or Ms6e Shiden (5-1) with a win
J14e Tokushoryu (4-10) and J12e Tochimusashi (4-10) are toast, making room for Chiyosakae and Fujiseiun. J10e Kotokuzan (4-10), J11e Shimanoumi (5-9), and J9e Tsushimanada (4-10) will all be toast with a loss. Tsushimanada and Shimanoumi will be safe with a win. For Kotokuzan, a win would put him on the bubble, depending on where he is in the demotion queue. I think he’d go down for Tokihayate if he’s 3rd, maybe for Kawazoe if he’s 4th, and almost certainly not for Shiden or Chiyonoumi if he’s 5th.
I wonder if it could be beneficial for Kotonowaka to lose. In this case, Wakamotoharu would move up to Sekiwake, and Kotonowaka could claim the K1e spot.
If Kotonowaka wins, both stay where they are.
No real difference between being ranked K1e and K1w, and 10 wins is a better start for an ozeki run.