Well, with the sumo media, fans and others already writing the obituary of a thoroughly weird basho and what it means for the sport, it’s worth remembering we’re not even halfway home.

That being said, this is clearly a tournament for the underdogs and one where hitting top form at the right moment could pay off in a massive way for one of sumo’s new starlets.

One of the most refreshing things about the Hatsu Basho this year was the fact that so many top, top performers put in top, top performances. While I don’t think we’re nearing a return to the bad old days of the past few years, the current big names have fluffed a chance to illustrate their dominance. That being said, a Maegashira yusho is no certainty: the likes of Abi and Hoshoryu in particular appear as they could at least be in the conversation deep into the basho.

Day 6 Matches

Takarafuji (3-2 at J1) vs Daiamami (1-4): It’s too early for this to be any kind of de facto exchange bout, but it is a match that will impact both the challenger’s promotion prospects and the incumbent’s demotion prospects. Uncle Takarafuji (and yes he is the uncle now that Aminishiki runs a stable) has won all three previous meetings. It is a bit weird to call a veteran of 12 years in the top division the challenger, and he probably should be favoured to win this in any case.

Nishikifuji (3-2) vs Roga (3-2): Nishikifuji turned up the juice in his last bout and if he can continue to fight with that level of engagement and determination, we won’t need to worry about any kind of demotion for him. The manner of Roga’s defeat on Day 5 was a disappointment. Nishikifuji has taken two from three against him previously, and despite the small sample size I’ll back him here in what should be a yotsu-zumo bout.

Ryuden (4-1) vs Myogiryu (2-3): Ryuden continues to look well up for it, and he meets a Myogiryu who doesn’t seem 100% dialed in. Ryuden has a 7-6 edge but five of those wins have come in the last six meetings, so he gets the tip this time. He could be a dark horse into the second week.

Takerufuji (5-0) vs Churanoumi (3-2): You can only beat what’s in front of you, but Takerufuji is probably going to get opponents who are a step up in quality from here on in. I do think that Churanoumi is a level above what Takerufuji has faced so far, whether that’s in terms of current form or overall ability. If you’re an Isegahama beya fan you’ll certainly get your fix with three of the first four matches today featuring their rikishi. This will be a tricky one for Takerufuji and they’ve never met before. Surprise is a powerful element and I’ll give the rookie the nod again here.

Shonannoumi (4-1) vs Endo (2-3): What has impressed me about Shonannoumi is his ability to stay calm and unruffled and just go about his business. Endo has also been staying calm, maybe too calm. Maybe this match should take place in a quiet kissaten near the arena. In any case, given the protagonists, this should be a belt duel.

Kitanowaka (1-4) vs Sadanoumi (3-2): A tale of two Day 5 losers. Kitanowaka was desperately disappointing against Daiamami, where I had said that a win for the latter would probably consign them both to the drop and I didn’t see anything to change my opinion. Sadanoumi, on the other hand, was valiant and determined despite going down to Ryuden. The veteran has won their only prior matchup and I think Sadanoumi picks up win number 4 this time.

Hokutofuji (1-4) vs Ichiyamamoto (2-3): I correctly tipped Hokutofuji to finally get off the mark yesterday, but it gives me no pleasure to see him at this position. I once felt he could be a future Ozeki, fulfilling the same kind of role as Takakeisho. Those days ended due to injury, and per a chat in the comments yesterday, it’s worth remembering as we gauge the potential of new talents. The disciple of the association chairman has won his only previous meeting with Ichiyamamoto, a guy who runs very hot and cold. I think Hokutofuji might just go on a run from here.

Onoshodai (both 3-2): Shodai is infuriating. I couldn’t believe how easily he was beaten again by Mitakeumi. I thought that Onosho might go on a losing run and he’s lost two in a row, but having seen yesterday’s bouts, I just get the feeling that he has a shot here. Shodai leads their head-to-head matchup 8-4, but they haven’t met in a couple years since he was an Ozeki. These days, it’s hard to know who to trust.

Mitakeumi (3-2) vs Takayasu (4-1): Takayasu has an absolutely dominant 22-9 record against Mitakeumi which has been pretty consistent throughout both of their glory years and has continued through the latter’s downfall. Only a crazy person would back Takayasu to yusho after so many collapses – I don’t even think Andy is that brave – but I do have a feeling that with the mess unraveling at the top of the banzuke, he can get himself in the conversation and in any case has a good shot in this match.

Kotoshoho (2-3) vs Tamawashi (1-4): Just because Kotoshoho lost in disappointing fashion to a pusher-thruster yesterday doesn’t mean the same fate will befall him today. But in a match like this where there’s not a lot to choose between the two (3-3 lifetime rivalry), I think Tamawashi’s experience will give him the edge.

Midorifuji (2-3) vs Gonoyama (3-2): Gonoyama should be the aggressor in this match. He lost their only meeting in January and to beat the wily Midorifuji, he needs to keep the smaller man well clear of his mawashi. I think the day off will reinvigorate him and we’ll see some powerful sumo from the Osaka rikishi.

Onosato (5-0) vs Meisei (2-3): When the schedules came out yesterday, this won’t have been a match that Onosato would necessarily have wanted. That being said, with the possible exception of his first match, he’s already seen off a number of high octane fighters who are not totally dissimilar to Meisei in their approach. We know that Onosato is going to look for a massive hit at the tachiai and look to blast his opponent away before switching to yotsu only if necessary once he gets near the edge. Meisei is going to want to get both hands inside as soon as possible in order to execute his style of sumo, and unless Onosato gets is unbalanced, I can’t see that happening.

Atamifuji (3-2) vs Asanoyama (2-3): The veteran has won both prior meetings. Atamifuji notched a wonderful win over his Ozeki foe on Day 5, whereas Asanoyama’s approach could hardly have been more predictable (Hoshoryu must have thought so as well). Both of these guys have seen all four Ozeki already (and the Yokozuna in Asanoyama’s case, and of course Atamifuji won’t fight him), so from here it should get quite a bit easier and both look good bets for a kachi-koshi. I think Asanoyama will even up both their records.

Daieisho (2-3) vs Ura (3-2): I’m going to tip against the local Kansai man here, but Ura is providing us with a wonderful tournament. Ura has also seen all of the top 5 men on the banzuke, so things should get somewhat better for him in the second week and he’s provided himself with a great platform to challenge to return to san’yaku. I must admit, I feared for him before the basho. That being said, Daieisho owns him to the tune of an 11-3 advantage in their matchups, seems to have awakened, and I can foresee a round man in a pink mawashi with a happy face bouncing off the dohyo and into the crowd.

Nishikigi (1-4) vs Wakamotoharu (3-2): Wakamotoharu leads their series 8-3 and will be relieved to get an opponent who wants to invite him in close to demonstrate his considerable belt skill after the last two days of oshi-madness. Nishikigi has looked a bit lost since his outstanding defeat of the Yokozuna, so I think the sekiwake gets the nod here.

Kirishima (1-4) vs Oho (2-3): I felt Oho could cause the Yokozuna problems and just had a feeling in the back of my mind that he actually might, but the kinboshi wasn’t shocking or surprising. That doesn’t take away from the achievement, and he’ll probably have been up all night reliving that and getting ready to go out and do it again. Kirishima has got himself up and running finally, and I think Oho winning this might even be a bigger shock, despite the fact that the Ozeki does give up the odd match to pusher-thrusters.

Abi (5-0) vs Kotonowaka (3-2): Somehow, Kotonowaka leads this series 7-2 and has won the last six in a row. So from that perspective, it’s Abi’s stiffest test yet in the basho. He has almost completed his san’yaku tour, but I think this might be where the perfect start comes to an end. While I can see Abi beating Hoshoryu and the Yokozuna (if he gets that far), Kotonowaka’s problems arise when he comes unbalanced and while Abi possesses great lateral movement, he’s been at his best when plowing forward in this basho. He got a bit lucky against Nishikigi and an opponent like Kotonowaka is more likely to punish him, however disappointing the latter’s sloppiness was against the trickery of Ura. So, I’m going to go for Kotonowaka here.

Takakeisho (3-2) vs Hiradoumi (3-2): This is a first time meeting of two guys who have completely opposite identities. Hiradoumi wants to fly forward and get both hands inside as soon as possible, Takakeisho is a man who looks like he wants to keep the whole world away. While Hiradoumi isn’t a belt specialist per se, I think Takakeisho is going to be wary here and I can see him winning with one of his big swats. Tsukiotoshi or something.

Tobizaru (2-3) vs Hoshoryu (4-1): Somehow, this is the 21st meeting of these two guys, and it’s closer than you might think with Hoshoryu leading the rivalry 12-8. Tobizaru is just a giant pain in the side of everyone he faces and he certainly looks up for this basho. Hoshoryu has quietly been putting up the results. While I think there will be opponents who can trouble him (the Saitama Boyz Abi and Daieisho being two prime candidates), he certainly looks like the most composed of the Ozeki and Yokozuna at this stage. For that reason I think this is a must-win match for him. Hoshoryu has been doing some fairly reactive sumo, luring his opponents in to set up his trademark throw with minimum fuss, or waiting for the opponent to make the mistake. I think he will win here despite that again being the case. Tobizaru will try and stick all over him, but I think the Ozeki will know what to do with that.

Terunofuji (2-3) vs Takanosho (1-4): At the time of writing, no kyujo has been announced for the Yokozuna but I absolutely would not be surprised to see this be a much needed fusen-sho for Takanosho. While I wasn’t shocked by the manner of Oho’s kinboshi against Terunofuji, given that it was a first time encounter with a fired up opponent who fights in a style that the Yokozuna has had issues with in the past (hello, Tamawashi), I was disappointed and I did think the Yokozuna would do enough to win. At this point this question of his withdrawal seems like when, not if, as he seems unlikely to now go undefeated the rest of the way through the san’yaku ranks. He and Isegahama will know better. If they don’t know better already, however, Takanosho likes to get both hands inside, the Yokozuna will clamp down on them, and then it’s just a matter of who has the fitness and ability to execute.

Whew, for a minute there I lost myself. Apologies for not supplying this type of preview yesterday, I was on a red eye that was delayed. It was not fun. It was more fun than being Tsurugisho. At the time of writing, no kyujo have been announced for Day 5. That may change by the time you read this. We’re all doing our best, although whether the same can be said for the san’yaku, I’m not so sure.

We are hearing that there are massive numbers of foreign fans in the crowd at this basho, so if you’re one of those new fans who have just discovered sumo and are trying to figure out what’s going on and googled your way to us, welcome! We have lots of information here for you. And if you have questions, that’s why the comments section is there!

On Day 5 we will get both the Komusubi and Sekiwake showdowns, and a handful of real highlight bouts. In other news, the remaining boys of Miyagino beya are starting to rally and are collectively up to 14-15.

Day 5 Matchups

Takerufuji (4-0) vs Tokihayate (3-1): Remember a couple of days ago when I joked about the Maegashira 17 yusho coming back? Yeah, uh… let’s not get carried away yet, but anyway, Tokihayate is our first Juryo visitor of the basho. He flirted with sekitori status under the name Tokisakae before a change of shikona did the trick and finally got him out of makushita. Don’t tell Shodai, but he might be heyagashira before too long. He has largely looked good in Juryo, although Takerufuji won their only previous meeting and on form it’s tough to tip against the Isegahama man until he meets Onosato at some point in the near future.

Daiamami (0-4) vs Kitanowaka (1-3): Daiamami isn’t going to zenpai unless he goes kyujo, but it wouldn’t be surprising to hear that opponents in need of a win might be licking their lips when they get drawn against him. Kitanowaka hasn’t been as bad as his scoreline suggests, although he has made some poor choices in his approach play. Endo was who he thought he was, but he let him off the hook! Anyway, while my predictions have been in large part accurate, I will swerve on making a call here apart from to say that if Kitanowaka doesn’t win this, then I think both of them are going straight back to Juryo.

Nishikifuji (2-2) vs Endo (2-2): All the headlines (if there were any) would be about Endo’s heroic table turning victory on Day 4, but truthfully a better rikishi would have put Endo away. It looked like he was playing an RPG and summoned some kind of momentary power boost. He’s having serious trouble committing power to ground and making headway in matches against opponents. Nishikifuji hasn’t been very good either and is coming off a fusen-sho, but as these guys are a couple of technicians who have had recent trouble overwhelming opponents, it should be an interesting tactical battle.

Roga (3-1) vs Churanoumi (2-2): Even rivalry at 2 apiece, which I think is a fair reflection of the relatively even level of their current ability. Roga’s going to want this match to take place on the belt, Churanoumi – while he is capable on the belt – is probably going to look to keep him away. Unlike the Daiamami/Kitanowaka match, I would say instead that a win for either of these guys would likely signal that they’re going to stay up. And a kuroboshi won’t be devastating for the loser.

Shonannoumi (3-1) vs Myogiryu (2-2): For some reason Shonannoumi feels a lot more mature in his sumo approach than his 25 years would suggest. Perhaps that’s a reflection of the fact that he’s been in the game for a decade already and so his approach has been refined, quite a lot, over time, by a shisho who has been quite accomplished in recent years at developing products. He did well to stay in the match against Mitakeumi and might need similar stamina against Myogiryu who will probably come out of the traps a bit stronger. I think Shonannoumi is a very narrow favourite for this, having won both previous encounters.

Ryuden (3-1) vs Sadanoumi (3-1): I don’t really like this matchup for Ryuden, although he leads the all time tally 8-7 and has taken the last 2 from the old dog Sadanoumi. If Sadanoumi can get Ryuden wrapped up, this is over, but if Ryuden is able to land a belt grip then he’s looking like he’s feisty enough in this basho to deal with most opponents. In terms of style and application I just like Sadanoumi a little bit better in this contest, but it wouldn’t surprise me for the match to break the other way, either.

Shodai (3-1) vs Mitakeumi (2-2): Where there is a Shodai match to predict, there is danger ahead, so tread carefully. Shodai is clearly in the better form of these two, although I am still burned by his complete collapse against Ichiyamamoto. Hopefully that woke him up. Mitakeumi is of course an all-rounder and would do well to engage an oshi-attack here for two reasons: first, he’s not going to win a stamina battle against Shodai in his current condition, and second, I think Shodai is probably also more able to execute a winning throw against Mitakeumi than vice versa. Mitakeumi should be watching the tape and throwing everything forward, because Ichiyamamoto showed that if Shodai is just going to stand up at the tachiai, then you can make him pay. Shodai is the favourite here, though, in the 34th meeting of the two.

Ichiyamamoto (1-3) vs Kotoshoho (2-2): Kotoshoho has got the feel of a bit of a flat-track bully right now, and that probably suits him down to the ground. Ichiyamamoto has not been short of effort but the finishing has largely been lacking. I think he could blow Kotoshoho away but Kotoshoho is also adept in oshi-zumo and for that reason, I think he’ll be the favourite here. Ichiyamamoto leads the series 6-4, but Kotoshoho has taken 3 of 4 lately.

Onosho (3-1) vs Takayasu (3-1): We know that Onosho is streaky, and I think his day 4 loss might have started a bad streak for him. Both of these guys just got beaten by the better opponent on the day. If Takayasu isn’t physically at it, we know that Onosho has the ability to blast him out with his tachiai, but Takayasu also possesses a tachiai which is good enough to defuse Onosho’s main weapon. This is a fairly even matchup at 5-4 in Onosho’s favour, but Takayasu has looked good enough so far that he should be favourite here.

Hokutofuji (0-4) vs Tamawashi (1-3): The only thing giving me pause right now about writing off Hokutofuji is that he has form for turning around terrible positions in the second week, and he doesn’t look quite as bad as his record suggests. Tamawashi looks like he’s heading for a narrow make-koshi but he’ll eke out enough wins against poor opponents to keep things respectable. If Tamawashi can execute a strong nodowa here then I think he’ll win, but if it’s a straight up oshi-battle between the two, I think strength against strength that Hokutofuji has enough to get off the mark.

Tsurugisho (2-2) vs Gonoyama (2-2): I fully expect this to be a fusen-sho for Gonoyama. In the very unlikely event that Tsurugisho does show up, he’s not going to have enough to deal with Gonoyama’s thrusting attack anyway, after the ugly injury yesterday.

Kinbozan (1-3) vs Onosato (4-0): I don’t expect to see Kinbozan back for this match either. I actually think that would be the worst case for Onosato, because in his current form, he doesn’t really need a day off. Sometimes, you need to keep going and carrying forward with momentum. Again, in either case, Onosato should be 5-0 after this.

Tobizaru (2-2) vs Hiradoumi (2-2): This should be the match of the day. Hiradoumi is putting in some astonishingly high octane performances, and I hope he has enough left in the tank when it’s time to match up against san’yaku opponents. He has a very different style of sumo to Daieisho, but his current approach reminds me a lot of when Tobizaru’s stablemate made his move from joi chancer to san’yaku regular. Tobizaru himself would like to make a similar move, and I think his application has largely been very good in this basho. This is too close to call, and it’s a question of Hiradoumi’s ability to quickly get inside and overwhelm against Tobizaru’s desire to lead him on a merry dance.

Midorifuji (1-3) vs Takanosho (1-3): Both of these guys are in some tough form, but Takanosho pushed the Ozeki all the way on Day 4 and looks to be in decent shape. Midorifuji has won their only previous bout and Takanosho’s relentless forward movement seems like a very good candidate for a Midorifuji katasukashi. That being said, Takanosho looks like he’s up for it this basho, and that’s a very good sign.

Abi (4-0) vs Nishikigi (1-3): Nishikigi has been a bit unfortunate with the opposition since his stunning win on shonichi, but he’s coming up against an opponent who can smell blood in the water right now. Abi will look at Daieisho’s win against Nishikigi has a template for the pusher-thruster to try and blow Nishikigi away. Nishikigi is clearly an intelligent fighter and one does wonder if he’ll be looking at that last bout to try and modify something in his approach for a very similar opponent. But by and large, these guys try to do “their brand of sumo” and if they both do that, Abi should win.

Daieisho (1-3) vs Wakamotoharu (3-1): Daieisho’s decision to informally enter the basho on Day 4 (after three days of being present, but basically absent) is bad news for Wakamotoharu, as Abi exposed his susceptibility to a strong thrusting attack. These guys have split their ten matches evenly, and have even traded wins back and forth in the last eight encounters. Daieisho won the last one, suggesting it’s Wakamotoharu’s turn. Wakamotoharu is in much the better form, but I think Daieisho is a very dangerous opponent for him, and Wakamotoharu’s approach to the tachiai will be very intriguing.

Ura (2-2) vs Kotonowaka (3-1): Kotonowaka has taken 4 out of 6 from Ura, but he will be wary and know what Ura can conjure, especially in front of an Osaka crowd baying for another upset. I have likened Kotonowaka’s recent approach to that of Kisenosato and I think that calm, composed, balance in the face of chaos will serve him well. I don’t think Kotonowaka will give the crowd what they want today, and that’s good news for him to run his score to 4-1.

Takakeisho (3-1) vs Atamifuji (2-2): Takakeisho has taken all three previous matches from Atamifuji. I think he’s starting to look like a decent bet to get his 8 wins and clear kadoban, but I wouldn’t be surprised if things fall apart after that when he starts to see the higher rankers (his second week matchups could be wildly impacted by Terunofuji’s and maybe even Kirishima’s decisions to hang around this basho). Atamifuji is going to be looking at wins like his Day 4 opponent Tobizaru and seeing those as the must-win matchups. Not that going up against Takakeisho is a free hit: Atamifuji can win this, and maybe even should win this, but the Ozeki is showing that even with diminished physicals right now, he’s still very, very good.

Asanoyama (2-2) vs Hoshoryu (3-1): Asanoyama has looked decent and had an absolutely hellish first few days in terms of opponents, but I think Hoshoryu’s got his number. The (current) Ozeki has won all four previous matchups. This will be a yotsu-zumo matchup, and Asanoyama’s match against the Yokozuna showed us that if he’s going to take these guys on at his and their strong point, he’s running a risk as he’s just a bit short of his best right now.

Kirishima (0-4) vs Meisei (2-2): This is a fairly even rivalry with the Ozeki leading by the odd win in 13. Kirishima has won the last four encounters and should be the odds-on favourite, but he’s looked awful so far. Meisei is not a guy who’s going to just give up easily, so this is a question of whether Kirishima can rally and try and go on a run for his kachi-koshi or if this is just a lost basho for him. If it’s the latter case, then he’s probably best to withdraw and take the kadoban tag. He can then look forward to focusing on the tutelage of his soon to be new shisho, the former Kakuryu, whose coaching served him well in the past.

Terunofuji (2-2) vs Oho (1-3): I tell you what, Oho certainly made a go of it against his one-time rival Hoshoryu. I think he’s going to be extremely up for it in his first ever match against Terunofuji, and by extension of that, his first chance to snag a kinboshi. Terunofuji does not physically look to be in yusho-challenging condition. His approach to Meisei wasn’t bad but his body did not appear to be able to execute what his brain was attempting. As a result of that, you’d say he might be an easy mark for the type of pusher-thruster that causes him problems. For the Yokozuna, there is no point in staying in the basho if he can’t challenge to win it. We could get the verdict on that as soon as tomorrow. In the meantime, I do just have a sneaky feeling Terunofuji will pull this one out, even if it’s too close for comfort.