Sōkokurai (蒼国来)

Natsu Day 8 Preview

Bruce H Abi (阿炎), Arawashi (荒鷲), Chiyonokuni (千代の国), Chiyoshoma, Daieisho (大栄翔), Endo (遠藤), Gōeidō (豪栄道), Hakuho (白鵬), Hokutōfuji (北勝富士), Ichinojo (逸ノ城), Ikioi (勢), Ishiura (石浦), Kagayaki (輝), Kakuryu (鶴竜), Kotoshogiku (琴奨菊), Kyokutaisei, Mitakeumi(御嶽海), Natsu Basho 2018, Nishikigi, Shohozan, Sōkokurai (蒼国来), Takakeishō (貴景勝), Tochinoshin (栃ノ心), Yoshikaze (嘉風), Yutakayama ,

Natsu Day 8.jpg

Time To Go Live

Overnight US time, NHK World will be broadcasting the last 50 minutes of Makuuchi live, and we will be live blogging during the event. Now, you may think it’s crazy to be awake in the middle of the night for sumo, but we sumo fans are an odd, dedicated lot. Our sport is televised some 8-11 hours different, and so Japan’s afternoon is the middle of the night for us. I will caution that all manner of calamities may take place that cause things to go poorly or not happen at all, but to the best of our ability, we will be adding our own brand of commentary, insight and inappropriate humor.

With Endo’s shocking withdrawal from the tournament, a gap has opened in the torikumi. Until someone else goes kyujo or Endo returns, we will be seeing daily visitors from Juryo to fill the open slot in the fight card. Today it’s long term veteran Sokokurai. Yes, the guy with the cat. But we are likely to see Onosho as well later this week.

Natsu Leaderboard

Leader – Tochinoshin
Chasers – Kakuryu, Hakuho, Daishomaru, Chiyonokuni
Hunt Group – Shodai, Kotoshogiku, Ikioi, Kagayaki, Asanoyama, Kyokutaisei, Myogiryu

8 Matches Remain.

What We Are Watching Day 8

No, let’s be honest here – we are live blogging this beast, we are watching the whole thing. But here are some comments.

Nishikigi vs Sokokurai – Will the “Mole Boss” show up and attack Nishikigi while his glasses are off? I doubt it, but should that happen look for Hakuho to task one of his tsukebito to chase the beast away before he comes out for his match. Nishikigi holds a 3-1 career lead, making the “Mole Boss Gambit” more credible. In our records, the Mole Boss holds an 8-0 or better advantage over all opponents.

Arawashi vs Kyokutaisei – Kyokutaisei hit a speed bump day 7, but is still just 3 wins away from a kachi-koshi in his first posting to the top divisions. Arawashi has a mirror record and needs to start putting white stars on the board today.

Ishiura vs Chiyonokuni – Ishiura has shown some fire in the the last few days, and Chiyonokuni is always ready for a brawl. If Ishiura brings his real sumo to the dohyo, this match could be a frantic recreation of the battle of Sekigahara.

Yoshikaze vs Takakeisho – If day 8 did not support my “Takakeisho is a poorly constructed Mandroid” theory, I don’t know what does. The real Takakeisho would be a complete handful for the somewhat un-genki berskerer, but this one… who can tell? They are tied 2-2 over their career, but both are quite a bit off their par performances.

Chiyoshoma vs Hokutofuji – Hokutofuji is starting to rally, and his day 8 match against Chiyoshoma might allow him to pull even. Chiyoshoma’s record for Natsu is nearly a lost cause now, and it’s probably down to injuries.

Kagayaki vs Ikioi – What keeps Ikioi going? Electric shocks? Really good chanko? Fear of being chased down and cuddled to death by a legion of sumo grannies? It matter not, as I predict his day 8 match with Kagayaki will be a great display of sumo fundamentals executed with strength and determination. No matter who wins, they are probably going to look good doing it. Then again Kagayaki has never won against Ikioi, so let’s say it’s probably Ikioi’s to lose.

Kotoshogiku vs Abi – What’s going to happen here? Abi seems to have borrowed Ura’s improbability module, and its causing all kinds of havoc among the top end of the banzuke. They have split their prior 2 matches, but I would point out that Kotoshogiku is having his best tournament since Aki of last year.

Mitakeumi vs Shohozan – Shohozan showed surprising versatility on day 7, and hopefully Mitakeumi was taking notes. Mitakeumi likes to open fast and endure any punishment to either get an inside tsuppari position, or get his opponent on the move. Shohozan holds a slight 3-4 career lead.

Tochinoshin vs Ichinojo – Look big man, we need you to rally here. Tochinoshin needs some dirt to really make this basho exciting. I know you have doubts now because you racked up a string of losses, but you are the biggest man on the dohyo this afternoon. He can in fact lift you, but you can use that to open a weakness in his attack. While this would be fun, Tochinoshin holds an 11-5 advantage over the Boulder, so I think we know where this is headed.

Daieisho vs Goeido – This had better be an easy win for Goeido.

Kakuryu vs Chiyotairyu – Big K holds an 8-0 advantage over the man with a kami in his sideburns. But given Chiyotairyu’s proclivity to cannonball tachiai, I am going to put money on Kakuryu pulling.

Yutakayama vs Hakuho – Winless Yutakayama goes up against the dai-Yokozuna. Sucks to be Yutakayama today.

Natsu Banzuke Crystal Ball

lksumo Abi (阿炎), Aminishiki (安美錦), Aoiyama, Arawashi (荒鷲), Asanoyama (朝乃山), Banzuke, bcb, Chiyomaru, Chiyonokuni (千代の国), Chiyoshoma, Daiamami (大奄美), Daieisho (大栄翔), Daishomaru, Endo (遠藤), Forecasting, Gōeidō (豪栄道), Hakuho (白鵬), Haru Basho 2018 (Osaka), Hidenoumi, Hokutōfuji (北勝富士), Ichinojo (逸ノ城), Ikioi (勢), Japanese Culture, Juryo (十両), Kachi Koshi, Kagayaki (輝), Kaisei (魁聖), Kakuryu (鶴竜), Kisenosato (稀勢の里), Kotoshogiku (琴奨菊), Kotoyuki, Kyokutaisei, Make Kochi, Mitakeumi(御嶽海), Miyogiryu, Nishikigi, Okinoumi (隠岐の海), promotion, Ryuden (竜電), San'yaku (三役), Sekiwake (関脇), Shohozan, Shōdai (正代直也), Sōkokurai (蒼国来), Takakeishō (貴景勝), Takarafuji (宝富士), Takayasu (高安), Takekaze (豪風), Tamawashi (玉鷲), Tochinoshin (栃ノ心), Tochiozan (栃煌山), Yokozuna (横綱), Yoshikaze (嘉風), Yutakayama, Ōnoshō (阿武咲), Ōzeki (大関)

I started writing these prediction posts exactly a year ago, so this will be my seventh banzuke forecast for Tachiai. The accuracy has varied from basho to basho, though I think it’s fair to say that the forecasts give a very good idea of roughly where each rikishi will land—in most cases, within one rank or closer.

Upper San’yaku

Y1

Kakuryu

Hakuho

Y2

Kisenosato

O1

Takayasu

Goeido

No changes here from the Haru banzuke.

Lower San’yaku

S

Tochinoshin

Ichinojo

K

Endo

 Mitakeumi

With his 7-8 record, Mitakeumi will lose his Sekiwake rank, but should only fall to Komusubi. Tochinoshin moves over to the East side, while Ichinojo moves up to Sekiwake. Endo finally gets his San’yaku promotion, and is a sufficiently strong candidate with his 9-6 record at M1e that I have him on the East side, although the banzuke committee could certainly switch him and Mitakeumi.

Upper Maegashira

M1

Tamawashi

Kaisei

M2

Abi

Shohozan

M3

Daieisho

Yutakayama

M4

Chiyoshoma

Ikioi

M5

Shodai

Kotoshogiku

What’s certain is that there will be a lot of turnover in this area of the banzuke, as with the exception of Shohozan, everyone in the M2-M5 ranks checked in with a losing record, and only Shodai limited his losses to 8. Many in the ranks immediately below this group also did not distinguish themselves, meaning that we have to reach far down the banzuke for viable promotion candidates. Exactly how this will play out is much less certain, as there are many possible scenarios, and the considerations going into them are complex.

Let’s start with the easy part. Both Tamawashi and Kaisei did well enough to earn promotions to San’yaku, but since there are no open slots for them, they will have to be content with the top maegashira rank. Abi and Shohozan are the only plausible candidates for M2, although their ordering is uncertain. Abi will jump 5 ranks, and will join the joi in only his third top-division basho after earning 10-5 records in the first two. Similarly, Daieisho is the only plausible candidate for M3e. He will also jump 5 ranks, matching his highest career rank.

From here, things get complicated. The next best numerical score belongs to Shodai, but he can’t take the M3w slot due to his make-koshi record at M4w. The best he could do would be to remain at his current rank, though it’s more likely he gets a minimal demotion to M5e. Kotoshogiku could technically  be only demoted from M3e to M3w, but given his 6-9 record, this seems overly generous, and he should really be ranked below Shodai. The next best candidate for M3e is none other than Yutakayama, whose 10-5 record could vault him 8 ranks up the banzuke, all the way from M11.

If we put Shodai and M5e and Kotoshogiku right below him at M5w, who fills the M4 slots? The choice is between the next two strong kachi-koshi records, which belong to Chiyoshoma (9-6 at M10) and Ikioi (11-4 at M14), and the other two high-rankers due for big demotions, Komusubi Chiyotairyu (4-11) and M2 Takarafuji (5-10). My forecast favors the guys moving up the banzuke over those moving down. If the banzuke committee agrees, six out of the ten rikishi in this group would be moving up at least 5 ranks!

Mid-Maegashira

M6

Chiyotairyu

Takarafuji

M7

Chiyomaru

Ryuden

M8

Yoshikaze

Hokutofuji

M9

Kagayaki

Daishomaru

M10

Okinoumi

Daiamami

M11

Chiyonokuni

Takakeisho

At Natsu, this area of the banzuke will serve primarily as the landing zone for higher-ranked rikishi who achieved make-koshi records ranging from just below .500 (Yoshikaze, Kagayaki, Okinoumi, Chiyonokuni) to horrific (hello, Chiyotairyu and Takakeisho). The only bright spots are Ryuden, who moves up from M9 with a minimal kachi-koshi, and the Oitekaze stablemates Daishomaru and Daiamami, who vault up and out of the demotion danger zone with their 9-6 and 10-5 records.

Lower Maegashira

M12

Asanoyama

Arawashi

M13

Ishiura

Sadanoumi

M14

Takekaze

Tochiozan

M15

Aoiyama

Kyokutaisei

M16

Aminishiki

Kotoeko

M17

Gagamaru


The bottom of the banzuke is complicated by the fact that there are 6 Makuuchi rikishi who earned demotions by the usual criteria (in order from most to least deserving of demotion: Hedenoumi, Kotoyuki, Sokokurai, Onosho/Nishikigi, and Myogiryu), but only 3 Juryo rikishi who clearly earned promotion: Sadanoumi, Takekaze, and Kyokutaisei. Aminishiki is borderline, and the next two best candidates, Kotoeko (10-5 at J8) and Gagamaru (8-7 at J5), are ranked too low to be normally considered for promotion with those records. Obviously, the numbers moving up and down have to match. What to do?

My initial inclination was to demote Nishikigi in favor of Aminishiki, and save Onosho (who was kyujo) and Myogiryu. Over on the sumo forum, Asashosakari suggested that they could instead demote Onosho and save both Nishikigi and Myogiryu. The solution I’m currently favoring, given how poor their records were, is that both Nishikigi and Myogiryu will be demoted, as will Onosho. I’m guessing that the banzuke committee will be more likely to promote kachi-koshi Juryo rikishi with insufficiently strong records (after all, this has happened in the past) than to keep in the top division rikishi who failed to defend their places there. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see this play out in any number of ways. We’ll find out on April 26th!

 

Sokokurai Withdraws from 2018 Haru Basho

Liam R Haru Basho 2018 (Osaka), Kyujo (休場), Sōkokurai (蒼国来)

Image result for sokokurai

Following a very painful looking fall in his Day 11 victory over Okinoumi, veteran rikishi Sokokurai has announced his withdrawal from the 2018 Haru Basho. Ranked at maegashira 15 and with only five wins to his name, Sokokurai will once again find himself in Juryo for the 2018 Natsu Basho. This may be a blessing in disguise for the man from Inner Mongolia, who took home the Yusho last time he was in the second division.

With this development, Sokokurai’s Day 12 opponent Ryuden picks up a much needed 5th win.

Haru Day 12 Preview

Bruce H Abi (阿炎), Aoiyama, Asanoyama (朝乃山), Chiyomaru, Daiamami (大奄美), Daieisho (大栄翔), Endo (遠藤), Gōeidō (豪栄道), Haru Basho 2018 (Osaka), Hokutōfuji (北勝富士), Ichinojo (逸ノ城), Ishiura (石浦), Kagayaki (輝), Kaisei (魁聖), Kakuryu (鶴竜), Mitakeumi(御嶽海), Nishikigi, Ryuden (竜電), Shohozan, Shōdai (正代直也), Sōkokurai (蒼国来), Takarafuji (宝富士), Takayasu (高安), Tamawashi (玉鷲), Tochinoshin (栃ノ心), Yutakayama

kakuryu-kensho

For the third time (at least) this Haru basho, sumo fans are roiled by discussions over a controversial call from the shimpan. This time it was Tochinoshin seeming to defeat Takayasu, but it was ruled that his heel had stepped out several seconds before he tossed Takayasu to the clay. For myself, after looking at multiple sources, it was inconclusive, and quite impossible for me to decide what I think happened.

By sealing his 11th win, Yokozuna Kakuryu is looking very good indeed now. Even if he should re-injure himself and withdraw, all but the harshest critics would admit he had done his duty as a Yokozuna well. It’s clear, though, that such an outcome is the last thing on his mind. He wants to win, and win as big as he can. He stated prior to the basho when it was known he was injured and in pain, that it was his goal to win a basho as Yokozuna 1E, and he is only a few more wins from making that real.

Day 12 has a fantastic set of matches, with the challenges for the Yokozuna and Ozeki ramping up in difficulty. The drama is playing out further down the torikumi, as the schedule continues to grind on, sorting rikishi into the defeated and the survivors. As with the end of most recent basho, we are seeing matches between rikishi of widely different ranks now, and some of the matches are interesting, while some are likely comical.

Haru Leaderboard

Leader: Kakuryu
Chaser: Kaisei
Hunt Group: Takayasu

4 Matches Remain

What We Are Watching Day 12

Ishiura vs Aoiyama – Ishiura is very fond of his henkas, and I do hope that Aoiyama knows not to rush headlong into him. Ishiura has yet to win a match over Aoiyama, so I am going to guess we get a tachiai where Aoiyama stands up and starts round-house blasting Ishiura on his head and neck.

Sokokurai vs Ryuden – Ryuden is getting dangerously close to make-koshi, and he’s going up against Sokokurai who had a rough start, but has won 3 of his last 4.

Kagayaki vs Nishikigi – If Nishikigi loses, he is make-koshi, and is a candidate for return to Juryo. He has been trying everything he can for the last 3 basho to avoid that outcome, and it may finally be time to face the music.

Asanoyama vs Daieisho – Asanoyama could pick up kachi-koshi, but he faces a much higher ranked Daieisho. Daieisho is not looking as genki as his fellow Oitekaze stable mates, but he is ranked well above Asanoyama.

Abi vs Yutakayama – Abi has yet to ever beat Yutakayama, and at 6-5, Abi needs every win he can get. But his sumo has become repetitive, and everyone is predicting his next move correctly. The man has talent, but he needs to broaden his approach. Yutakayama is already kachi-koshi, but I expect he is pushing for 10.

Daiamami vs Hokutofuji – The big crazy spread of the day, Daiamami (M16) takes on Hokutofuji (M6), whom he has fought twice but never beaten. A win here would not only be a surprise, but would give Daiamami a well earned kachi-koshi.

Endo vs Kaisei – Big match of the day. Endo can remove Kaisei from contention if he wins, and move a step closer in his bid to finally make it to san’yaku. Kaisei wants to maintain his pace just behind Kakuryu, but Endo holds a 6-4 career edge. Both men are looking their best right now, so I expect some solid sumo from this match.

Takarafuji vs Tamawashi – Takarafuji will end make-koshi, which belies the fact that he put up a strong match each day, win or lose. Tamawashi is on a campaign to return to san’yaku, and it’s still well within reach. Takarafuji holds a 11-7 career advantage.

Shohozan vs Chiyotairyu – Historically, Shohozan’s brute-oshi style has struggled to beat Chiyotairyu (2-5), and both men are fighting well this tournament. Chiyotairyu already has 9 losses, so this is for pride, and to soften his landing.

Mitakeumi vs Shodai – Mitakeumi is fading like a 1980’s poster in a shop window, and for some reason, I think Shodai is going to give him a good fight today. Many fans still have hope that some day Shodai can elevate his sumo, and be a contender in the uppermost ranks.

Takayasu vs Chiyomaru – A battle of big round men who are fond or blasting off the line with overwhelming force. Takayasu won their only prior meeting, and I expect he will win this one unless Chiyomaru gets a lucky hit at the tachiai.

Ichinojo vs Goeido – I think I speak for many sumo fans when I say I am praying there is not another Goeido henka. I think he can take Ichinojo, and I want to see him try it in direct battle. They are tied 6-6 over their career matches, so it could actually be a good bout.

Kakuryu vs Tochinoshin – Tochinoshin has had a rough ride this basho. A number of tough calls went against him, and he has struggled to repeat his outstanding performance at Hatsu. I expect Kakuryu to stay mobile, and keep Tochinoshin from landing a mawashi grip. Out of their 22 prior matches, Tochinoshin has only won one.