San’yaku (三役)

Kyushu Day 11 Preview

Bruce H Gōeidō (豪栄道), Hakuho (白鵬), Harumafuji (日馬富士), Ichinojo (逸ノ城), Kakuryu (鶴竜), Kisenosato (稀勢の里), Kyushu Basho 2016, San'yaku (三役), Takarafuji (宝富士), Takayasu (高安) , , , , , , , , ,

ishura-day10

Finish Strong.

We now start the last 5 days of sumo for 2016. It’s fascinating that Harumafuji and Kisenosato are stilled tied at the top of total wins for 2016, a tie that will be broken soon, possibly on day 11. After watching Kisenosato dismantle Hakuho on the NHK highlight reel, the accomplishment is ever more impressive. Again, the sumo Kisenosato brought to day 10 was some of the best I have seen in some time, and I think the fans in Fukuoka and watching around the world were amazed.

To be fair, Kisenosato finally laid bare the extent of Hakuho’s recovery from surgery this past September. It is clear that the Boss has been artfully keeping the true extent of the remaining weakness in his foot and knee hidden through outstanding technique and clever tactics. But Kisenosato brought a full power maneuver battle to day 10, and in the end Hakuho lost.

But there are some really ugly questions left to resolve. First and foremost in my mind is how badly will this end for Takayasu. Mathematically, he cannot even reach 10 wins this basho. Had he gotten 10, his Ozeki run would have carried forward to Hatsu in January. But now the best he can hope for is 9, and that requires him defeating at least 2 Yokozuna. Realistically he is going make-koshi, and headed down in rank, at least to Komusubi for January. If he somehow manages 9, he remains Sekiwake – but his Ozeki count to 33 starts over again at zero.

Speaking of which, we can start to see who will advance, and who will be demoted for January. In short, it’s a Makuuchi blood bath:

  • Day 10 Makuuchi Kachi-koshi : Kakuryu, Harumafuji, Ishiura, Hakuho, Kisenosato, Arawashi
  • Day 10 Makuuchi Make-Koshi : Okinoumi, Yoshikaze, Sadanoumi, Hidenoumi, Aoiyama, Kyokushuho, Kaisei

For Juryo – There is a lot more bunched up int he middle, showing that for Kyushu, Juryo is much more balanced than the upper division Makuuchi

  • Day 10 Juryo Kachi-koshi : Osunaarashi, Seiro
  • Day 10 Juryo Make-koshi : Tokushoryu, Asasekiryu, Sadanofuji

There is still time to derail the Osunaarashi Juryo Yusho train, but that mighty Egyptian locomotive shows no sign of slowing down.

Notable Matches

Daishomaru vs Ichinojo – First time match up between these two, both of them in the middle of the pack pushing to exit Kyushu with a winning record. Both rikishi are at risk of demotion back to Juryo if they finish with losing records.

Chiyoshoma vs Sokokurai – Chiyoshoma bringing oshi-zumō vs Sokokurai’s yotsu-zumō. Their only prior meeting went to Chiyoshoma, but this is going to be an even match. I expect Sokokurai will prevail on this one.

Myogiryu vs Ishiura – Ishiura, please no mini-henka today. You are facing someone 6 steps up the banzuke, and everyone wants to see if you can handle the harder matches. The degree of your coming promotion is defined by the next 3 matches. This is the first match between these two.

Shohozan vs Takarafuji – These two are fairly even in Kyushu, but historically Takarafuji has yet to win against Shohozan in any of their prior 6 matches.

Ikioi vs Shodai – Winner is kachi-koshi from this bout. Slight edge to Shodai on this, they have only faced each other 3 times. They will be slapping each other around for a few seconds, grapple and figure out the winner.

Day 11 Battle of the Sanyaku Fleet

Goeido vs Terunofuji – First, a resurgent Terunofuji facing a very inconsistent Goeido. Goeido was back to his winning ways, and in good form on day 10. Terunofuji, though still injured, seems to be in very competitive form. Terunofuji, once he gets set, is very tough to move. He has legs like tree trunks and a back that could lift an ox. To win, Goeido needs to take him off balance in the first few seconds before he can get his stance planted, and his attack underway.

Harumafuji vs Kotoshogiku – Kotoshogiku make-koshi today. I am hoping that Harumafuji uses him to practice the kind of sumo he deployed on day 10. Statistically a slight edge to Kotoshogiku, with history showing a 33-27 lifetime between the two. But let’s get serious, Kotoshogiku is going make-kochi, and will once again be kadoban.

Hakuho vs Takayasu – Chances are very small that Takayasu can rally and defeat Hakuho, in spite of the fact that Kisenosato showed his stable mate Takayasu the recipe. Takayasu is still very capable, but he is likely going back to Komusubi with a 7-8 record.

Kisenosato vs Kakuryu – Likely the highlight match of the day. Career statistics, it’s advantage Kisenosato, 30-17. Kakuryu would love to go Zensho Yusho for the last match of 2016, and everyone is hoping that he can suffer at least one loss to open up the yusho race. Kakuryu will have watched the Hakuho match multiple times, and will be studying this new fearsome, mobile Kisenosato.

Kyushu Day 10 Preview

Bruce H Gōeidō (豪栄道), Hakuho (白鵬), Harumafuji (日馬富士), Ichinojo (逸ノ城), Kakuryu (鶴竜), Kyushu Basho 2016, San'yaku (三役), Takarafuji (宝富士), Takayasu (高安), Yokozuna (横綱) , , , , , , , ,

kisenosato-day9-kyushu

We Close Out The Second Act.

Day 10 brings us to the end of the middle third of the last basho of the year. While there is a huge amount of attention being payed to who will win the Emperor’s Cup, one fascinating metric is total wins for calendar year 2016. In the past several years, the winner has been Hakuho. Due to his surgery and recovery, the statistic for total wins this year is (as of day 10) a tie between Harumafuji and Kisenosato.

Notable Matches

Sokokurai vs Ishiura – First time meeting between these two, so who knows what to expect. Ishiura has been unstoppable thus far, I can’t wait to see what Sokokurai will bring. He is normally a yori-kiri kind of guy, so lets see if they grapple or push.

Ichinojo vs Toyohibiki – Prior meet ups between these two have been all Ichinojo’s game, and he tends to want to throw Toyohibiki.

Ikioi vs Chiyootori – Ikioi has been having a good basho so far. On day 8 he had a tooth knocked out (I think the Japanese press said it was a crown) via a collision during tachiai with Chiyokuni. Day 9 he looked vague and lost. His record against Chiyootori is a losing one, so Ikioi must apply himself.

Arawashi vs Takanoiwa – Arawashi is one win away from kachi-koshi, but he may have his hand full with Takanoiwa, who has a track record of overpowering the lighter Arawashi.

Chiyoshoma vs Tochinoshin – Chiyoshoma is also one win from kachi-koshi, but Tochinoshin seems newly energized by the Shimpan debacle of day 8. This will be the first time he has faced Chiyoshoma, who has been favoring pull downs early in the match. Tochinoshin tends to have a very careful tachiai approach, so I look for him to get a solid left hand grip early if he wants to win.

Endo vs Nishikigi – Nishikigi is having a terrible basho, with a losing 3-6 record going into day 10. His chances of improvement are slim, as Endo tends to fold him up and put him away dirty.

Takarafuji vs Shodai – Match up of thrusting attacks, would be my guess. Shodai has been favoring belt sumo more this tournament, and he is also in the ranks of one win from kachi-koshi. He has a slight edge on this match in terms of trend and form for Kyushu, but Takarafuji has to be feeling the pressure now.

Today’s Sanyaku Buffet

Goeido vs Kotoshogiku – Goeido, will he settle down and return to the form of the good Goeido, or stay in the form of the bad Goeido? We at Tachiai always want to see the good Goeido, that guy is amazing. In facing Kotoshogiku, if ‘Ku gets set and starts to hug-n-chug, it usually ends up with Kotoshogiku winning. Goeido will look to stay mobile and attack at the first weakness. Record slightly favors Goeido. Kotoshogiku is starting to worry me that he is going kadoban again.

Hakuho vs Kisenosato – These two have a long history of outstanding sumo, and many of their matches have been worthy of highlight reels. History favors Hakuho by a 3x margin, so it’s up to Kisenosato to surprise and confound the Yokozuna. Kisenosato is not known for invention, so it’s likely we see Hakuho package and ship the Great Pumpkin into the seats quickly.

Terunofuji vs Kakuryu – Oh please, Great Sumo Cat of the Kokugikan, let it be Terunofuji who breaks Kakuryu’s winning streak. That would be so wonderful, so amazing and the sumo world would shout for joy. Not only would it give the injured Terunofuji his kachi-koshi, but it would blow the yusho race wide open. History shows that Terunofuji actually wins against Kakuryu most of the time, but Terunofuji is still hurt.

Harumafuji vs Takayasu – I worry that Takayasu is going make-koshi in Kyushu, which would be a great tragedy. Day 10 he faces Harumafuji, who he seldom wins against. I am just hoping that Harumafuji puts away some of his tired moves and shows us his Yokozuna talents.

Makuuchi Mostly Former Sanyaku

Andy San'yaku (三役)

We’ve been talking a lot recently about promotions and demotions. Generally as we wonder how long we will have the current Yokozuna and Ozeki match up. It hit me the other day that many of the current makuuchi have at some point been sanyaku. Of the current makuuchi, 26 wrestlers have at some point been sanyaku, 16 have not achieved the rank of Komusubi. Perhaps the most prolific of the current batch of non-champions is Myogiryu. He’s been Sekiwake for a total of 8 tournaments; three times he’s been Sekiwake for consecutive tournaments. With all these veterans, throw some young up-and-comers into the mix (Ishiura, Hidenoumi & Hokutofuji, to Shodai & Endo) and we get some great matches, even in the lower reaches of the division. Gagamaru, Chiyotairyu, Chiyoootori have all been komusubi but are fighting to stay out of Juryo.

Kyushu Day 5 Preview

Bruce H Gōeidō (豪栄道), Hakuho (白鵬), Harumafuji (日馬富士), Ichinojo (逸ノ城), Kakuryu (鶴竜), Kisenosato (稀勢の里), Kyushu Basho 2016, San'yaku (三役), Sekiwake (関脇), Takarafuji (宝富士), Takayasu (高安), Yokozuna (横綱), Yoshikaze (嘉風), Ōzeki (大関) , , , , ,

harumafuji
First Act Ends As Action Intensifies

At the end of day 5, Kyushu will be ⅓ complete. Andy and I laid out some of the story lines that would be unfolding during Kyushu, and many of them are unfolding in amazing ways. Before we look at the pivotal matches on Thursday, let’s see how things are developing

Endo is clearly in the running for a Sanyaku spot. Short of a complete, Okinoumi style week 2 collapse, he is actually thriving at Maegashira 3. As of Thursday they are pairing him against Yokozuna, as he has already overwhelmed the Ozeki ranks. This is his audition, with week 2 likely to be other Maegashira rank and file sumotori. A kachi-koshi would place him in consideration for the top slot of sumo for the new year basho (which I am going to try to attend)

Takayasu’s Ozeki run is in trouble. But wait, you say – he is on a winning streak with only one loss. Let’s look at the math – firstly, he lost to Goeido. I am still troubled by that match. But to make Ozeki, he needs 13 wins, in part because he lost a few easy matches at the end of Aki. That means he can only lose 2 bouts. One is already lost to Goeido. This means that he has to win everything, beat the other 2 Ozeki (not a tall order, as they are flagging), and only lose to 1 Yokozuna. Unless Harumafuji goes kyujo with that ankle, he faces 3 fairly amped up Yokozuna, all tuned up and ready for battle. That slippi-toshi against Goiedo is probably a deciding factor in his promotion.

Speaking of Goeido – he’s got trouble, because of that really smelly bout with Takayasu, and the one that followed with Yoshikaze. If he wants his rope, he has to overcome the same obstacles. He has to find a way to beat at least Hakuho and Kakuryu. He is certainly capable, but the first act of Kyushu is really to warm up the top talent, and give the lower ranked Makuuchi a chance to shine. If the top talent gets easy / fall-down matches, they are not really ready for the rigors of the closing 10 days. Goeido needs challenges, but his brethren Ozeki are playing wounded, except for Kisenosato.

Terunofuji looks doomed, really. He may get some mercy wins from scheduling, but as Andy has correctly pointed out, he needs medical treatment and recovery. I personally want the really scary good, nobody’s safe Terunofuji back.

Aoiyama has the best 0-4 record in sumo. He has taking a beating from the top ranks, and he gives it everything he’s got. That was especially on display day 4 where he made Harumafuji work, and work more to defeat him. I worry that his massive size is making is joints fail. Clearly the man has talent, but like any arms race, he may have gone too far. (also Kaisei)

Harumafuji is damaged, at least his ankle, maybe his knee as well. If you recall, he was hurt in Nagoya, and that injury limited him during Aki – which opened the door for Goeido. The ankle took damage on his loss day one to Tamawashi during that awkward exit from the dohyo. Depending on how well they can manage his damage, don’t be surprised if he goes kyujo.

Day 5 Notable Matches

Ishiura vs Ichinojo – It’s muscle man vs sumo robot time!

Ikioi vs Takarafuji – This could be mighty fine. Let’s see who wants it more, as both are 3-1

Takayasu vs Tamawashi – Sekiwake vs Komusubi, this could be fun too!

Kotoshogiku vs Yoshikaze – The berserker can’t seem to buy a win right now. This will be an indicator on how degraded Ku is, and how rough the match up with Goeido will be

Goeido vs Aoiyama – Aoiyama is going to give it everything, but right now Goeido is still in super attack mode.

Harumafuji vs Endo – This is probably the highlight match of the day. How hurt is Harumafuji? How ready is Endo? Time to find out!