With the preview of day 11, we start the third and final act of the Haru basho. Act 3 is to crown the yusho winner, and sort everyone into make and kachi-koshi. This is also about the time we can start thinking about which rikishi might be demoted back to Juryo, and which Juryo rikishi might appear in the top division for the Natsu basho in Tokyo.

Ishiura is back in action, the banzuke is balanced once more, and we will stop seeing folks from Juryo in the top division for the first match each day. I am hoping his pinched nerve is good enough for him to fight, it looks like he was in quite a lot of pain.

With Mitakeumi taking a 2nd loss, the yusho race gets a bit more chaotic. Up until that point, Mitakeumi had been favored as the challenger as soon as Takayasu picks up his first loss. That is still possible, but quite a bit more unlikely now that he is 2 losses behind. This leaves Wakatakakage and Kotonowaka to be first in line to challenge, should the opportunity present itself.

One last note, though it is late in starting, it does seem that the schedulers are going to try some level of “Darwin’s Funnel” now in act 3. There is a preponderance of matches between rikishi with middling records, and maybe they are going to see if they can herd a bunch of them to 7-7 records to start day 15.

Haru Leaderboard

Everyone is waiting to see if someone can put dirt on Takayasu – I am sure it will happen before long, but who will be the one?

Leader: Takayasu
Hunt Group: Wakatakakage, Kotonowaka
Chaser: Mitakeumi

5 matches remain

What We Are Watching Day 11

Chiyomaru vs Ichiyamamoto – This will be a tough match, if Ichiyamamoto loses, he is make-koshi, and basically automatically demoted to Juryo except for some kind of miracle. I can’t say that he has really shown much in the way of effective sumo this month, and maybe he needs to re-group in the lower division. Chiyomaru is not doing well either, but may be safe at this rank and score from any speculation of demotion.

Nishikigi vs Chiyotairyu – A win today, and Nishikigi will have his first top division kachi-koshi since 2018. I kind of want him to do it. It will come down to him getting his hands on Chiyotairyu’s belt and shutting down the thunder-god’s oshi-zumo. Chiyotairyu has a 5-3 career lead.

Tochinoshin vs Terutsuyoshi – The second in the “win and in” series, Tochinoshin could pick up kachi-koshi today with a win over Terutsuyoshi. Terutsuyoshi still seems to be having wrist problems since that match earlier in the basho that saw him flexing his hands after a win. He will need to get inside on Tochinoshin and avoid the “sky-crane” effect.

Myogiryu vs Kagayaki – Both of these guys are 4-6, and are setting a pretty solid course for make-koshi right now. In the case of Kagayaki, it’s back to Juryo for him along side Ichiyamamoto unless he can take 3 wins from his final 5 matches. AT M11, Myogiryu should be safe from demotion, so I think Kagayaki is going to have much stronger motivation today. Both are good candidates for Darwin matches, if they can get that far.

Kotokuzan vs Aoiyama – Two more that are headed into Darwin territory, if they are lucky. This is their first ever match, and the sheer bulk of Aoiyama may be somewhat of a surprise to Kotokuzan. Kotokuzan is no dainty dumpling himself, but I must imagine being confronted with a wall of pasty flesh might unsettle even the strongest constitution.

Tobizaru vs Akua – Tobizaru at an even 5-5 to start today, and Akua already make-koshi. He has a number of folks below him on the banzuke in tough shape, but if he loses several more, he may find himself nominated to return to Juryo on the barge of the damned. Tobizaru has a 6-3 career lead, and there are rumors afoot that he is now able to levitate….

Kotoshoho vs Sadanoumi – Kotoshoho seems to have a good shot of reaching his 8, and cementing his spot in the top division for May. Sadanoumi is already a disimal 2-8, but at this rank unlikely to be considered for a demotion. This may, however, be a bit of an “exchange” match it see how Kotoshoho might fight against someone around mid level.

Chiyoshoma vs Yutakayama – Another match that just screams “Darwin” are these two. Both of them are fighting ok, but not great. Chiyoshoma is 4-6, Yutakayama 5-5. Both are susceptible to lose on any given day for any reason or no reason at all. In terms of the funnel, the ideal result here would be a Chiyoshoma win, leaving both with 5-6 records.

Hokutofuji vs Shimanoumi – After giving Mitakeumi the business, Hokutofuji is here to join the crowd trying out for Darwin’s Funnel. This time it’s Hokutofuji with 5-5, and Shimanoumi with 6-4. They have an even 2-2 record, so I would give Shimanoumi a fair chance of getting his 7th win and avoiding the funnel all together.

Okinoumi vs Ishiura – Oh man, Okinoumi at 2-8 facing a returning Ishiura, who has a composite score of 1-9. In addition, Okinoumi has a 6-2 career record. As is frequently the case, returning rikishi are skewered lengthwise and roasted over a crackling fire for their first day back./ It could be a lot worse, but it’s bad enough.

Kotoeko vs Endo – I really want to see Kotoeko pick up his 8th win today. He’s been showing a lot of drive and determination, and I think that kind of rikishi must prevail. Endo has not managed a win in either of their prior matches, and in fact a loss today might push him into the funnel.

Kiribayama vs Wakamotoharu – As with the match above, we have Kiribayama at 7-3 against 6-4 Wakamotoharu. I would be delighted to see Wakamotoharu win this one and surprise Kiribayama. Both top division Oname brothers seem to have having a banner tournament, and I hope it will motivate them to solid gains in their sumo.

Ichinojo vs Meisei – I am calling this a gimme for Ichinojo. He seems to have come to terms with his own immensity, and if he is clam, huge, patient and immobile today, the much smaller Meisei (who is only 1-9) will be less fun to toss than your average pony.

Tamawashi vs Ura – Also firmly in the 1-9 camp is Ura. May not matter much, everyone loves him anyhow. So I wonder how low his score is going to go. Hopefully not too far into double digits. Tamawashi has a 3-1 career win over Ura, so Ura is more or less oshidashi bait today.

Daieisho vs Hoshoryu – Daieisho has a 2-0 record over Hoshoryu, and in general both rikishi are finding the going a bit tough in the second half of Haru. This might be considered another funnel match, except I don’t really think they will end up 7-7 on the final day. I give a bit of an edge to Daieisho today as I think Hoshoryu is running low on mojo.

Takanosho vs Onosho – Takanosho at 2-8 is already out of the named ranks. I think he has a chance to cushion the fall but putting up as many white stars as he can in the last 5 matches, starting with today’s slap and push fest with Onosho. Takanosho holds a 7-3 career advantage in their match ups, and Onosho continues to have balance problems.

Wakatakakage vs Takayasu – I consider this to be the big match of the day, maybe the biggest match of the next couple of days. Takayasu needs to win this one, and it will be tough. Wakatakakage has a 5-2 career advantage, and has been fighting at or near his best ever form. I won’t even hazard a guess on what form the match will take. I am not certain that even if Takayasu locks Wakatakakage into a giant hairy battle-hug that he would be able to prevail in a stamina contest, as the lighter and smaller Wakatakakage has shown himself capable of escaping that trap.

Shodai vs Takarafuji – Shodai needs to win 3 of the last 5 matches, and sets up an ugly possibility. A final day contest where he is 7-7 and must win to preserve his rank. There have been a few Ozeki Darwin matches in the past, and they are usually heartbreakers. He has a 15-3 career record against Takarafuji, who is having one of his “bad” basho. So maybe a win for him again today?

Abi vs Mitakeumi – Both of Mitakeumi’s losses this basho came directly from him underestimating his opponent in the early moments of a match. Allowing Hokutofuji to surprise him with a solid yotsu match leaves no one but himself to blame. For him to have any chance at the yusho, he needs Takayasu to win against Wakatakakage, and then someone to take down Kotonowaka while Takayasu fades out with 2 losses. Yeah, not quite likely at this point. But at least he can run up the score and try for Ozeki 1 East in May.

Kotonowaka vs Takakeisho – On the subject of Kotonowaka, here he is against Takakeisho who needs just one more win to clear kadoban. Kotonowaka would be at less risk standing between Ichinojo and an ice cream truck. I am quite impressed with Kotonowaka’s sumo this March, I think they sent him up here to “face the music” and start collecting a few losses. Note – wins today from both Takakeisho and Takayasu would leave Takayasu 2 wins or more ahead of everyone.

I continue to marvel that Shodai is somehow able to find the power and strength not just to compete, but to dominate the last 4 matches. They have all been fairly quick, so maybe he does what he can before he runs out of juice and for now that is good enough. He is still kadboan, but now needs 3 more wins out of his final 5 matches to clear and retain Ozeki. He has Takarafuji day 11, whose defensive style of sumo is purpose built to keep opponents from a quick win.

Much to my surprise, Mitakeumi took a loss today, and in doing so lowered his odds that he might compete for the cup in the final days of the tournament. While I still think someone is going to put dirt on Takayasu before the yusho is awarded in 5 days, the race is more complicated now, as neither of the two chasers have prior yusho experience, and may have challenges with the mental focus required to finish strong.

Highlight Matches

Tochinoshin defeats Kaisei – They went chest to chest straight away, and it was Tochinoshin who proved to have the advantage today. Both of these guys are absolutely huge, and exerted significant force in that yotsu battle, but it seems that with that ankle injury, Kaisei is a bit less able to transmit power to ground than Tochinoshin is, so the former Ozeki picked up his 7th win. Wow, kachi-koshi for him tomorrow?

Kotoshoho defeats Kotokuzan – Kotoshoho tried twice to get a hand inside, but could not overcome Kotokuzan’s slapping attack, one of which connected with Kotoshoho’s head. That head slap left Kotokuzan’s chest wide open, and a single powerful thrust to the center of that chest was enough to put Kotokuzan out, improving Kotoshoho to 6-4.

Yutakayama defeats Akua – Two matta to front load this match, with the third attempt setting off a furious slapping / thrusting volley that saw Akua’s right knee crumple, and he hit the clay. Akua hits his 8th loss and is make-koshi for March while Yutakayama advances to 5-5.

Nishikigi defeats Chiyomaru – Blink and you will miss it. Nishikigi gave ground to Chiyomaru’s tachiai, but his right hand found its mark, and by the third step he was rolling Chiyomaru to the ground. Nishikigi improves to 7-3.

Kotoeko defeats Ichiyamamoto – Ichiyamamoto opened with his thrusting attack, and had control. But I love that quarter step to the side and grab move Kotoeko applied to go chest to chest against the much larger Ichiyamamoto. The fight shifted to yotsu, and Kotoeko could contain Ichiyamamoto, but lacked the last bit of power to send him out. A mutual throw attempt at the bales paid off, giving Kotoeko his 7th win to advance to 7-3, and picked up a bloody nose for his efforts.

Shimanoumi defeats Kagayaki – After a whopper of a matta, that flattened Shimanoumi, Kagayaki’s sumo was still, and largely ineffective. He could not get good hand placement, and struggled to do much other than hunch forward and advance. With his balance skewed this badly, it was easy for Shimanoumi to pull him farther forward, and send him down. Shimanoumi advances to 6-4.

Tobizaru defeats Chiyotairyu – Chiyotairyu tried for his formulaic “stand him up, pull him down” routine. Tobizaru was ready for each stage of it, and pushed strongly into the pull. Chiyotairyu had no choice but to step back, and then step out. Tobizaru improves to 5-5.

Terutsuyoshi defeats Wakamotoharu – One of the factors to keep in mind when fighting Terutsuyoshi, keep your arms and legs inside the ride at all times. Wakamotoharu had a right arm left behind for a moment after a thrust attack, and it was an easy attachment point for Terutsuyoshi. Arms make wonderful levers, and one step later Wakamotoharu was tumbling forward as Terutsuyoshi pulled the arm and rotated. Both end the day with 6-4 scores thanks to that glorious katasukashi.

Chiyoshoma defeats Myogiryu – Again we get a matta. When the match did get started, the two danced about the ring exchanging blows, shoves and even a few kicks. It would not be unfair to call this a “kitchen sink” match, that ended with Chiyoshoma pulling Myogiryu forward and rotating him down. Matching scores to finish this match as well, both are 4-6.

Aoiyama defeats Sadanoumi – Another very sloppy “come as you are” match. They started with a bit of shoving, a bit of hitting and a bit of everything in between. Aoiyama grabbed Sadanoumi’s head and applied a pull, which only served to bring Sadanoumi closer, and Sadanoumi found a double inside position. With both men terribly off balance, Aoiyama pivoted and rotated Sadanoumi out. That’s loss 8 for Sadanoumi, and he is make-koshi for March, as Aoiyama advances to 4-6.

Kiribayama defeats Onosho – Not sure why Onosho decided he was going to fight this one chest to chest. But it worked out poorly, and his only real offensive move just fed power into Kiribayama throw that ultimately won the match. Kiribayama up to 7-3 now.

Okinoumi defeats Meisei – The battle of the battle damaged goes to Okinoumi, who picks up his second win of the tournament. Meisei opened with thrusting, but once Okinoumi captured him and established a hold, it was a fast walk to the bales, followed by a gentle escort out of the ring. Okinoumi now 2-8.

Ichinojo defeats Tamawashi – We got to see the “good” Ichinojo again today. Huge, patient, immobile, and in control. Tamawashi tried to apply some power to The Boulder’s upper body, but it went nowhere. Ichinojo calmly consolidated his hold, and took a nice stroll with Tamawashi in his arms, improving to 6-4.

Kotonowaka defeats Daieisho – Daieisho applied maximum forward power, most of which went straight into a series of nodowa. With his center of gravity so far forward, it was trivial for Kotonowaka to set up and execute the side step and thrust to win by hatakikomi. Kotonowaka improves to 9-1.

Takanosho defeats Ura – Another battle of the defeated, it seems that Takanosho is in slighting better condition that Ura right now. Ura continues to try to fight very low, and cannot really produce much offense, but is half way to the the clay already. Takanosho applies a few solid shoves, and gets Ura tumbling out of the ring. Takanosho improves to 2-8.

Takayasu defeats Hoshoryu – Hoshoryu opened really well, a nice hazu-oishi attack to Takayasu’s armpits, and he moved Takayasu back a few steps. Hoshoryu’s advantage was short lived, as Takayasu tangled up his arms and hands, and then gave him time to consider his sumo. Hoshoryu broke contact, and Hoshoryu tried to find the hand placement for some kind of throw, thwarted again by Takayasu. Break contact again and re-engaged with a right hand inside. No, Takayasu is immobile today, and you are going nowhere with that sumo, sir. Hoshoryu tries still more great responses, none of them are doing anything but inching him toward his 6th loss. Takayasu shoves the remainders over the west side, and remains unbeaten at 10-0.

Wakatakakage defeats Abi – Oh, that’s right. Its been a few matches since the last matta, and it is matta day, so Abi, feel free to launch early. Abi has some good power today, but then pulls into Wakatakakage’s forward advance, and is quickly out. Wakatakakage 9-1, and remains in the hunt behind Takayasu.

Hokutofuji defeats Mitakeumi – That was going to be a tough match no matter what, and when I saw that both men squared their shoulders and their hips, it was Hokutofuji’s match to win. He was lower, his arms were better positioned, and he had Mitakeumi bracketed. Mitakeumi realized this almost at once, but could not lower his hips fast enough to counter Hokutofuji’s push forward. Hokutofuji advances to 5-5.

Takakeisho defeats Takarafuji – Is Takakeisho nursing some injury? This form of sumo is quite different for him. I am all in for experiments and expanding the technique catalog, but I wonder about trying to clear kadoban and doing that at the same time. Takakeisho won with a grab/hold technique, katasukashi, which is quite out of character for him. He’s 7-3 now, needing just one more win out of the remaining 5 matches to clear kadoban.

Shodai defeats Endo – Yeah, he did it again. That’s 4 in a row. Even if he does not make his 8, he is scoring very high marks for tenacity and embodiment of ganbarimasu. Endo did get a grip, but there was enough daikon power rattling around Shodai’s COVID riddled body that he powered through Endo’s attempt to drop his hips and set up control. 5-5 for Shodai, 3 to go.