The Kyokai’s delivered us a wonderful banzuke, lksumo has explained its relation to the Crystal Ball and now the countdown to sumo begins. Enough of this scandalous talk, how about some of our Tachiai Always Regrettable Predictions™ in literary format?
Y Terunofuji (last result: 13-2, yusho): That was a big yusho for the Yokozuna. I think he bought himself – and the sport – quite a bit of time with his results at the Hatsu basho. It was a very confident performance and quite a few of the wins didn’t appear to even need max effort, which is critical for him. Remember those idiots grumbling a few years ago about all of the “part time Yokozuna?” You should be careful what you wish for, we used to have four and now we’re lucky to have one part time Yokozuna. He is never fully fit, and I don’t think he’s going to need to finish this basho if he starts it. But he’s still – for now – the best. Prediction: Kyujo
O1E Kirishima (11-4): I’ve written recently that Kirishima’s hatsu could have gone a very different way and altered the immediate future of the sport entirely. It didn’t, but it’s a credit to him that, on a rope run, he put up a very competent performance over 15 days. I think he’s in contention this time until the end as well, although it’s not going to get any easier. This is his last tournament under the current shisho before he moves stables, and he will want to punctuate it with Yusho number 3. I think he will get it, with some bumps along the way. Prediction: 13-2 Yusho (or 12-3 and a playoff win).
O1W Hoshoryu (10-4-1): I think he was wise to withdraw following his injury in the last tournament once it was clear he couldn’t win it, having already been safely kachi-koshi. The injury will be a question mark, and his mentals always seem to mean he lets himself down in a match or two, but he has taken another step forward and I think he is in the yusho race. Prediction: 12-3 jun yusho.
O2E Takakeisho (2-2-11, kadoban): He needs 8 wins to retain his ozeki rank and I am going to make a big non-call here and say it’s a coin flip. At his best, he is an immediate yusho contender, but his chronic injury problems are difficult to ignore. I do think he will get his 5th yusho at some point, but it won’t be here. His shisho retires in 2 years and while it’s questionable whether the Kyokai would give the keys to a 29 year old (especially in light of recent events), it wouldn’t surprise me if he hung up the mawashi at that point. In any case, the schedulers have been wont to pull Ozeki from the big matches late on if they are out of contention (“doing a Shodai”), and Takakeisho could get a similar favour (or indignity) here. Prediction: 8-7.
O2W Kotonowaka (13-2 playoff loss, promoted to Ozeki): We’ve seen big names struggle upon promotion or to come back after a yusho win, after all of the various festivities. Kotonowaka has been on a big promo tour recently, but I think not winning the yusho actually helps him here: there will have been enough fanfare, but I also think he’s probably mentally strong enough to deal with it, and he comes from a vaunted sumo family. He already made plans to dispose of his father’s shikona when he took it on Juryo promotion, saying he’d take his grandfather’s name when he became an Ozeki. Big words, and he’ll allegedly back them up in May when he takes the Kotozakura name. Some folks on Sumo Forum have been slinging around a lot of “what if he’s kadoban” chat. If he’s healthy, he won’t be. Prediction: 11-4.
SE Daieisho (9-6): He’s riding a streak of 7 consecutive kachi-koshi, all with at least 9 wins and 4 in the double digits. He has been so good and so consistent and it sometimes goes a bit under the radar. It was tough to see his Ozeki run fall apart last summer, and the heat might get turned up a bit over these next few tournaments. I think he’s replaced Tamawashi as the serial thruster of the lower-san’yaku ranks. Prediction: 9-6.
SW Wakamotoharu (10-5): He’s deservedly back in san’yaku after a very competent tournament last time out where he took several scalps (including the Yokozuna’s in order to clinch his first kinboshi). I think the level is now too high for him to mount a serious Ozeki challenge but these brothers are for real. If Kirishima opts for Arashio beya after his stable closes down, it could be a real powerhouse for the next few years with the Onami brothers and the Ozeki getting crucial torikumi advantages. Wakamotoharu was a late bloomer and all the Ozeki ahead of him are his junior but I think he’ll do OK here. Prediction: 9-6.
KE Abi (8-7): I do love Abi and on every occasion that he’s been demoted from san’yaku, he’s bounced straight back with a winning record. A lot of his wins last time were against guys having awful tournaments and at this rank, I don’t know that you can really count on that to get you through. I think he’s going to yo-yo back down to the rank-and-file. Prediction: 6-9.
KW Nishikigi (8-7): Late in his career, he’s had a real blossoming into someone who’s been able to take advantage of the dearth of upwardly mobile stars over the past few years while the top division was in stasis. That period seems to be coming to an end (despite the extremely generous “there wasn’t anyone else” promotion). When you compare his dance card from last basho with what he’s likely to encounter this time, I’d be fearful he’s headed for double digit losses, at least. But I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt due to his track record, and hold him at an even ten. Prediction: 5-10.
M1E Ura (6-9): Last tournament’s respectable record on his Komusubi debut leaves him squarely in the joi and I’m just not sure that’s the place to be right now. He will spring a shock or two and I think he will be highly motivated to get back to Komusubi or better, but I don’t think it’s going to happen here. My gut tells me to tip him for 11 losses or more. If it was anywhere other than his home basho in Osaka with the crowd 200% behind him and creating a raucous atmosphere, I do think it would be a lot uglier. Prediction: 6-9.
M1W Asanoyama (9-3-3): He was firmly in the yusho hunt last time with seven straight wins, before his loss to Tamawashi took him out of the tournament. He did well to come back and get kachi-koshi. He is starting to look sharper although it will be a worry that he’s only completed two of the five top division tournaments he’s entered since returning from suspension. Turning 30 before the basho, there’s a real danger he lost his best years and he’ll be desperate to get himself back among the honours. I wouldn’t be surprised if he notches another special prize here and he also seems like a good candidate to beat the Yokozuna early in the basho, but I don’t fancy him for the yusho. Prediction: 10-5.
M2E Atamifuji (6-9): Three straight 11 win tournaments were always going to be tough to follow up, especially for someone making such a big jump forward having never previously competed higher than M8. A 6 win performance really isn’t all that bad. I think he’ll go one better this time as he acclimates. Prediction: 7-8.
M2W Meisei (9-6): It feels like he’s been established at this level for a while now, and his true talent level is much higher than where he fought the previous basho. I like his style of sumo a lot, I think the danger when looking at where he can go from here is that he has been passed along the way by a handful of top talents. He’s another one whose career, to me, reads Myogiryu: similar style of sumo, will probably bother the san’yaku ranks on occasion until he gets into his mid 30s. I’ll back him for a narrow KK here. Prediction: 8-7.
M3E Oho (10-5): He’s just so inconsistent. At first we thought maybe he’ll be a rival for Hoshoryu as they came up together, then maybe Kotonowaka as he was coming up. When I originally wrote this I thought it looked like maybe Hokuseiho would the guy who settles in for a long career of bouts against him in the rank and file, so he’ll have to find another rival again. Oho reached the top division early enough that he should easily qualify for an elder share and in 15 years we may all be talking about how exciting it is that he’s reviving his grandfather’s stable. But I wouldn’t want to be him in the joi right now. None of his previous trips above M10 ended with winning records and he never even faced san’yaku guys in those tournaments. He won’t be able to avoid it this time, and if he outperforms this score by any number of wins it’ll be a real credit to him. Prediction: 3-12.
M3W Takanosho (10-5): He turns 30 later this year, but he’s still good enough on his day that it’s staggering to think he’s been in the lower half of the rank and file for much of the last 18 months. One big issue is his inconsistency, which has long been a factor, and even more so after the 2022 injury that knocked him out of the joi after a decent run in the division’s upper reaches. His game planning also seems to be a bit faulty, as evidenced by the bout against Hoshoryu in the last basho where his tachiai gift wrapped the Ozeki one of his signature throws. He does “his brand of sumo” to a fault, even when he won’t beat a better opponent strength to strength. He probably also suffers from having his main training partner in the stable unavailable for long stretches of time due to the Ozeki’s own injury woes. Saying all of that, I think Takanosho will more or less get the job done – but it could go horribly wrong. Prediction: An 8-7 that could just as easily be a 4-11.
M4E Tobizaru (7-8): The worst thing for Tobizaru is probably that he’s not got a demotion here. Don’t get me wrong, he’s definitely shown he’s capable of producing the goods at this level, but I just think the upper tiers of the division are healthier now than they were when he was taking scalps from a listless Ichinojo and Mitakeumi in san’yaku back in 2022. Since he first reached the joi he’s been remarkably consistent, but I think he’s due a clanger and it’s coming this time. Prediction: 5-10.
M4W Hiradoumi (8-7): He’s still only 23 and finding his way. I really like his style of sumo, it’s classic Sakaigawa-beya sumo, fast tachiai, in and under the opponent’s arms. We’ve seen it from Goeido and Myogiryu and Sadanoumi and now Hiradoumi. At his age, I think he can probably shoot to replicate Myogiryu’s career. He might just about hold serve this time as long as he doesn’t crumble if and when he drops bouts against the top, top opponents. Prediction: 7-8.
M5E Midorifuji (5-10): The question mark here is over how many matches he gets sucked into against the big guns. He’s shown he can beat absolutely anyone on his day, and he’s not a one trick pony although everyone does know his signature move. He’s started poorly in four of the last five tournaments, and when you’re in the top half it’s hard to see past that. Prediction: 6-9.
M5W Onosato (11-4): It was as good of a debut basho as he reasonably could have hoped for last time, in yusho contention but for his run-ins with the big dogs in week two when his inexperience showed. To be totally honest, I don’t think he’s looked absolutely amazing in any of his basho so far, but he has continued to get better. Haters seem to think he’s the next Ichinojo, dreamers think he’s the next dai-Yokozuna. The truth is probably somewhere in between. Prediction: 10-5.
M6E Tsurugisho (9-6): Whatever you say about him, you can’t deny he’s a fighter. With maybe one good leg, the big man has shown a variety of skills to overcome his physical limitations and get the job done. Remember: this isn’t survival of the fittest, it’s survival of the fit enough. That all being said, he’s gone north of M10 twice in his career and has 20 losses to show for it, and I think that will be at least 30 after this basho at his new career high rank. Prediction: 5-10.
M6W Gonoyama (5-10): By his standards you’d say it was an awful tournament in January, but the truth is that he’d been slowing down with each tournament and clearly it has been a challenge to adjust to life in the joi. I think he’s very, very good and could be a star but it might take another year or so until he’s in his prime. He’s 3 for 3 on kachi-koshi in his hometown basho and I think he’ll do it again, just. Prediction: 8-7.
M7E Kinbozan (7-8): The last ten months haven’t been especially kind to the Kazakhstani, with most of his wins coming against those ranked lower than him. He should be able to mostly avoid the big hitters this time out. There’s something just a bit awkward about his sumo right now, he hasn’t been a great watch. Prediction: 8-7.
M7W Tamawashi (8-7): The iron man just continues to do what he does. It’s been a couple years since that magical 2022 where he notched a flurry of kinboshi and a yusho. I still don’t think the Yokozuna will be keen to see the 39 year old again soon, but I think that won’t happen for a while yet unless he puts on another yusho challenge from the lower reaches of the division this year. It’s been almost six years since he put together three consecutive winning tournaments, and I bet that stretch will continue, if only just. Prediction: 7-8.
M8E Onosho (10-5): Here’s a guy who can have an absolutely tragic score and still look pretty good, or put up double digit wins without looking like he got out of first gear. Apart from Kotoshoho, it was only the absolute top guys who put dirt on him last time (including a hilariously naive loss to the Yokozuna). It’s very rare for him to notch back to back kachi-koshi but I probably have too much faith. Prediction: 9-6.
M8W Takayasu (2-4-9): By and large, he starts pretty well in tournaments and then the wheels come off in the second week, either due to stamina and injury or the increase in competition. I’d back him for a decent tournament if he’s good enough to get through 15 days. He’s 34 but he’s still good enough for this level. Prediction: 10-5.
M9E Hokutofuji (4-5-6): Like Takayasu, he’s one where if he’s fit, he’s just too good for the lower half of the division, even as he’s now almost 32. There’s a little more competition for places now though, so I do question whether he can properly assert himself now that makuuchi is slightly healthier than it has been the last few years. Prediction: 9-6.
M9W Kotoshoho (9-6): He’s still fairly young at 24 but needless to say, things have not worked out quite the way we envisioned when he rocketed to the top of the division after his debut. It’s possible he went too fast too soon as – fitness aside – he never really seems to have recovered in terms of form since that brutal 2-13 three years ago. He’s got some super training partners in the heya and his brother is on the way, but it’s hard for me to buy the upside right now. Prediction: 8-7.
M10E Shodai (4-11): Only Shodai could simultaneously grab a kinboshi off the champion and also put in a performance so bad that he’s at one of the three lowest ranks of his entire top division career. He can’t be happy to be at this level, but the last 18 months have been tragic and he’ll do well to stop the rot. I think he will, temporarily. He’s never had a make-koshi when ranked below Maegashira 5 so it would be absolutely shocking for him not to turn things around in Osaka. Prediction: 9-6.
M10W Mitakeumi (6-9): Two former Ozeki at Maegashira 10. Some days he still has it, but when he hasn’t got it, he looks really awful. There is no “if he gets healthy,” stage of his career to follow: this is about how he manages his injuries on the decline. He’s put up two winning tournaments in the past two years, but I do think he’ll get a third here. Prediction: 9-6.
M11E Ichiyamamoto (5-10): In one sense it’s mission complete as we finally saw the space-time continuum ripped apart by his match against Abi. He’s never had a kachi-koshi above M14 in his thirteen top division tournaments and I don’t think he gets one in the fourteenth. Prediction: 6-9.
M11W Sadanoumi (6-9): Somehow, this is his 51st basho in the top division and so he only needs to hang on for another year and a half to qualify to open his own heya. Whether he has the backing for that is another question, but it has been a remarkable late career resurgence from a guy who spent most of his career in the lower reaches of the division. Of course, much of that run across 2022 and early 2023 is probably also attributable to the drop in quality in the division in that period, but you can only beat what’s in front of you. He’ll be 37 when Natsu approaches but he can still do a job here if – and it’s a big if – he manages his fitness. Prediction: 8-7.
M12E Shonannoumi (4-11): He took an absolute beating in Tokyo and a lot of the losses were racked up against lower ranking opponents. That’s three make-koshi in four top division basho and I think he’s going to get another one. Prediction: 7-8.
M12W Shimazuumi (9-6) – The story of his career has mostly been solid, steady, slow progress, and he looked impressive enough in his debut basho. The competition this time out might be a bit too steep. Prediction: 6-9.
M13E Ryuden (3-12): He’s been all over the place in terms of his top division performances since his return from bad boy status. He’s just so inconsistent, and when he gets on a bad run you ask when it’s ever going to end. Equally, when he’s on, he’s one of the most tenacious fighters you’ll see in sumo. But I think he’s lost a bit of that spark. I think he’s in a Darwin match on Day 15: it could go either way but I’m calling tails. Prediction: 7-8.
M13W Churanoumi (7-8): He looked fairly assured in the first weeks of his two top division basho, but faded a bit in the second week of both. He had a good 2023, but based on what I’d seen of him in Juryo it’s hard to be totally convinced. He could be in trouble. Prediction: 5-10.
M14E Nishikifuji (10-5 at J2): He made a promising enough start to his top division career but then the wheels absolutely fell off. He stopped the rot in a Juryo division he clearly doesn’t want any part of. I don’t think he gets a kachi-koshi, but I do think he’ll get a result that keeps him up for another go. Prediction: 7-8.
M14W Kitanowaka (10-5 at J3): He certainly has his fans as I saw in person at Kokugikan in January, although I also see a guy who is very talented but hasn’t quite been able to put it all together. He could well reach san’yaku before his boss Hakkaku retires in a few years, but I think it’s a gradual process. His most common score in Juryo was 8-7 and that feels about right here. In any case, I think he’ll stay up. Prediction: 8-7.
M15E Myogiryu (5-10): He had a dip to Juryo a few years ago, but by and large, anytime he’s really been in danger he’s been able to pull out a positive result to sustain him for 6 more months, until he needs another one. Always a fan favourite and even more so in front of his “home” crowd, the man from Hyogo-ken actually hasn’t had a winning record in Osaka in 8 years. I’d back him to snap that streak here, maybe even on senshuraku. Prediction: 8-7.
M15W Roga (9-6 at J3): Marginal gains is a buzzword in sport these days and that seems to be the order of the day for Roga, whose rise has been steady if unspectacular since those in the biz were tipping him for big things five years ago. He still has great potential, but since his first promotion to Makushita, he has a 14-21 record in the matches after he attains kachi-koshi. That’s approaching a meaningful sample size that, to these eyes, shows a real lack of killer instinct and raises a question mark over whether he could ever win a yusho at any level. I think it’s a coin flip here as to whether he gets the wins he needs to stay up. Prediction: 7-8.
M16E Endo (5-10): No one will be cheering louder for him than the friendly Tenkaiho, whose seat in the Kyokai (thought to be on loan from Endo) must be feeling rather warm, as Endo spent the last basho dancing around the trap door. A veteran of precisely four basho outside the top division in his entire career, it seems potentially unlikely that the 33 year old would want to mess around outside of the big stage (especially as he’s already met the requirements to open his own stable some day). He did just about enough to keep himself up last time, but two consecutive double-digit make-koshi has him in a dangerous spot and his sumo has looked at times listless. I don’t think this is going to be a comfortable ride but I think he’ll do enough. Prediction: 8-7.
M16W Daiamami (8-7 at J1): He’s spent 11 tournaments in the top division, posted losing records in 8 of them and double digit losses or the equivalent in 5 of those. The eye test both recently and over the longer term doesn’t convince me either. If I’m going to bet on these other guys to stay up, someone needs to go back down. Prediction: 4-11.
M17E Takerufuji (13-2 Yusho at J10): He’s been more or less dominant to this point with a career record of 56-8. This is going to be the biggest one-basho leap – in terms of opponent quality – of his career to-date. This might be some bias based on the Isegahama-beya track record, but he hasn’t been overawed or overmatched at any level yet and I’m going to tip him for a sansho. Prediction: 10-5.
