The Haru banzuke is out! Despite not nailing all the details, the Crystal Ball certainly lived up to its goal of giving us a good idea of where everyone would land. It got the san’yaku entirely correct, including the tricky call of Nishikigi over Asanoyama for the West Komusubi rank. The other occupants of the named ranks were straightforward: East Yokozuna Terunofuji, followed by Ozeki Kirishima, Hoshoryu, Takakeisho, and Kotonowaka in that order, then East Sekiwake Daieisho, West Sekiwake Wakamotoharu, and East Komusubi Abi.
The run of perfect predictions continued through M1e Ura, M1w Asanoyama, and M2e Atamifuji. The crystal ball had 10-win Oho at M2w, ahead of 9-win Meisei, while the banzuke committee’s coin flip came up the other way. I also placed Midorifuji at M4w and Hiradoumi at M5e, while the banzuke committee flipped them, apparently feeling that Midorifuji’s 5-10 record warranted a bigger demotion. And then came the only real surprise, and the only rank where the prediction was off by more than a single rank: hot newcomer Onosato landed all the way up at M5w, while I expected him to be ranked M7e. This also led to incorrect guesses for the placement of Tsurugisho and Kinbozan. After that, the prediction got back on track, only getting Ryuden and Shimazuumi the wrong way around between M7w and M14w.
And then we get to the bottom. The crystal ball correctly predicted the 5 exchanges between Makuuchi and Juryo, with Nishikifuji, Kitanowaka, Roga, Daiamami, and Takerufuji taking the places of Aoiyama, Bushozan, Tomokaze, Takarafuji, and Hokuseiho. This ends Takarafuji’s 11-year run in the top division, as well as the longest active Makuuchi streak without an absence (this honor now goes to Tamawashi). Hokuseiho will officially finish his career at J3e. Although the Crystal Ball got the rank order of the rikishi coming up from Juryo right, it did not anticipate the leniency given to 10-loss Myogiryu and Endo, who could have easily ended up in the second division but instead landed at M15e and M16e, respectively.
Let me know what you think of the banzuke in the comments, and then it’s on to the basho! It’ll be nice to have some actual sumo back as a palate cleanser after recent news.
Endo’s reprieve is a surprise. I hope he can capitalize. He had a terrible Hatsu. I thought Hokuseiho would be erased. I guess the calligraphy had already been done? I’m sad about Takarafuji but it gives a good reason to track the Takarabune’s new course.
I called Endo staying; he had a better case than any of the guys who went down, and Tokihayate and Tohakuryu didn’t do quite enough. One more win by either of them would have sent Endo down.
I’m pretty sure Hokuseiho wouldn’t have left a blank spot in any case since he was “allowed” to retire like any departing rikishi, but that aside, surely even the print run of the banzuke was long done by last Friday, let alone the calligraphy.
Is there any benefit for Hokuseiho for being allowed to retire instead of just quitting? I personally would had given my resignation letter and leave the Heya immediately, I don’t see the point of going through the humiliation process of meeting journalists and attending the final hearing. As everybody knew by Thursday, if not by Wednesday that he was finished
I think he gets to have a retirement ceremony, for one. Not sure if there are financial considerations…
Or gets chased out of the Heya by an angry vengeful mob of lower ranked Rikishi…
Or super-glued to his Rolls Royce.
Interesting banzuke! I’ve also guessed the joi and the division exchanges almost perfectly, but the placement of Takayasu and Shodai + Onosato’s 10 rank jump made all my prediction shift one rank.
I’m really looking forward to this torunament now. Outside the obvious san’yaku (+Asanoyama) storylines, I’m curious to see:
– how Onosato (and also Atamifuji and Oho) perform up there
– if Takayasu can make the most of a mid-banzuke ranking and get 10+ wins (feels familiar…)
– if Takerufuji will storm through the lower Maegashira or not quite yet
– Meisei and Takanosho had generous promotions but have been in the upper ranks before – can they threaten this san’yaku or not really?
Did anyone get Onosato’s placement right?
Looking back, its not that extraordinary – by the numbers it was a toss-up between several rikishi. Just a surprise that he leap-frogged some higher-rankers with similar cases plus had such a big jump. A somewhat similar story for Roga vs Daiamami, although at least there Roga won their matchup (not sure if that really means anything, though)..
Some GTB players did, not sure how many. He was half a rank behind Gonoyama and Tsurugisho by the numbers, so not sure what the logic was for placing him above them. He was also a rank and a half behind Kinbozan, who really didn’t have to eat his full demotion (Tobizaru stayed in place). The working hypothesis is that he got credit for being in the yusho races and facing 3 top-rankers, but Onosho faced 4 and didn’t get the same love.
I expected Roga ahead of Daiamami since they were exactly tied and Roga had more wins.