Natsu Day 12 Highlights

In the day 12 preview, I made reference to an attempt to funnel as many rikishi as possible toward a 7-7 record at the end of day 14, to set up a series of “Darwin Matches”. To get there, the scheduling committee sometimes works to pair rikishi with middling records against each other, in hopes of steering as many of them as possible to that 7-7 outcome. If that had been going on, it was blown up today as many who needed a win lost, and many who needed a loss won. Does that mean no 7-7 “Darwin” matches on Sunday? Not at all. But I think the active effort to herd rikishi to that score fell apart today.

The two leaders, Asanoyama and Terunofuji, split their matches today, with Asanoyama losing to Daieisho, and Terunofuji beating Wakamotoharu. This gives Terunofuji sole possession of the yusho lead. But you will note when you watch the video of today’s senshuraku, Terunofuji had to leap from the dohyo at the end of his match, and you can see the pain written over his body. We just hope his knees hold out for another 3 days.

Highlight Matches

Ichiyamamoto defeats Chiyoshoma – Ichiyamamoto picks up a very welcome win in an even match that was lost when Chiyoshoma lost his stance and dropped to the clay. There was at least two Ichiyamamoto pull attempts in there too, and it was a chaotic mess of a match. Ichiyamamoto now 4-8.

Myogiryu defeats Daishoho – It took a few matta to get them started, I don’t know if Daishoho was trying to throw Myogiryu off, or if Daishoho chugged a dozen coffees before mounting the dohyo. It did not help Daishoho at all, and he was quickly out by yorikiri. Myogiryu now 7-5 and could reach kachi-koshi tomorrow.

Takarafuji defeats Mitoryu – I know that Takarafuji has struggled with maintaining forward pressure for most of Natsu, but he was able to stave off Mitoryu for a fair amount of time. After they were both tired enough, Mitoryu charged ahead, Takarafuji escaped and they both stepped out. A monoii declared a rematch. In the second attempt, we got to see the spectacle of Mitoryu attempting an henka. He actually caught a surprising amount of air in that leap. It failed and Takarafuji never let Mitoryu get balance back or place his feet. Mitoryu now make-koshi as both end the day 4-8.

Oho defeats Onosho – Oho has now won 7 of the last 8, and 4 in a row. Like many of his matches, he let Onosho do most of the work. But superb timing counts for quite a bit more than power forward at times. Onosho is convinced he is about to drive Oho out, but Oho steps aside and applies the hatakikomi to get his 8th win. He is now kachi-koshi for Natsu.

Tsurugisho defeats Hiradoumi – I feel for Hiradoumi, who has lost 3 days in a row trying to get his 8th. Hiradoumi finds his left hand blocked by an ottsuke, and can never quite get a working grip. Plus there is quite a lot of Tsurugisho to try and overcome. Tsurugisho finds his hold, and just powers through Hiradoumi’s defenses for a yorikiri to improve to 9-3.

Kotoeko defeats Sadanoumi – A funnel match that went on the rocks, Sadanoumi showed us some speed today, but perhaps more than he should have employed. He was all forward power when Kotoeko pivoted at the bales and sent him into the salt basket for a loss by tsukiotoshi. Kotoeko now 7-5.

Hokutofuji defeats Ryuden – Hokutofuji not ready to accept his obligatory make-koshi just yet. Ryuden had a few good combo attacks, but Hokutofuji took control at the tachiai and kept the pressure on. Ryuden ended the match falling sideways off of the dohyo by oshitaoshi, and Hokutofuji improves to 5-7.

Tamawashi defeats Aoiyama – In this battle of the grizzled veterans, it’s clear that Aoiyama is a bit more banged up than Tamawashi. Tamawashi is able to power through what passes for defense this month from Aoiyama, and the moment it is clear he is at the bales, Aoiyama goes soft and steps out. This is sumo from an injured man. Tamawashi takes the much needed win and is now 6-6, Aoiyama earns his 8th loss and is now make-koshi.

Mitakeumi defeats Kagayaki – Happy to say that Mitakeumi is not yet so far gone that he can be beaten by Kagayaki. Kagayaki gave it a good effort at the tachiai, but once Mitakeumi had him to his chest, he was all forward power to walk Kagayaki out. Mitakeumi now 7-5.

Ura defeats Tobizaru – These two are very inventive rikishi, and so it was surprising to see them throw more or less the same combos at each other time and again for the duration of this lengthy match. Don’t get me wrong, it’s a good fight and the crowd loved it. But I was looking for more nonsense than we got – at least at first. That ending exchange – you have Tobizaru off axis pushing into an unbalanced Ura, who plants his feet, ducks down and head rams a charging Tobizaru. Tobizaru grabs Ura’s head, and Ura lifts with his back and pivots. Down goes Tobizaru and Ura crumples to the clay, with his knees clearly a concern. Kimarite is listed as zubuneri – a head pivot throw, which was last seen in the top division in 1998 when Asahiyutaka used it to defeat Terao on day 5 in Osaka. Ura now 6-6.

Nishikifuji defeats Takanosho – When you are fighting as poorly as Nishikifuji has been this month, winning in reverse gear is “good enough” to be sure. He lets Takanosho supply the energy to power the uwatenage that wins the match, sealing Takanosho’s make-koshi at 4-8, while Nishikifuji advances to 3-9.

Abi defeats Meisei – Abi’s henka catches Meisei at the right time, and sets up the oshitaoshi one step later that wins the match. Meisei looks a bit hurt, or just knocked about and is slow to get up. Abi now 6-6.

Midorifuji defeats Takayasu – The powerful Takayasu of yesterday is nowhere to be seen today, as Midorifuji gets underneath and drives Takayasu out at a gallop. Midorifuji now 4-8.

Nishikigi defeats Kotonowaka – That’s 5 wins in a row for Nishikigi – what on earth? Nishikigi gets his preferred arm bar hold early, and Kotonowaka swaps to defense. With Kotonowaka moving back, Nishikigi keeps up the pressure and finds center mass. The results are an oshidashi that improves his score to 6-6.

Shodai defeats Kinbozan – The version of Shodai with some level of sumo skill mounted the dohyo today. Kinbozan had a good opening attack, but found Shodai reverse his position and grapple in for a quick yorikiri. Shodai now 6-6, and I wish I could buy that man some consistency.

Daieisho defeats Asanoyama – Daieisho takes Asanoyama out of his tie for the lead with a quick mega-thrust win. This is the sumo I expected from Daieisho I expected yesterday against Takakeisho, but good enough here. Because Asanoyama had the easier route to double digits, I wonder if maybe he is not quite ready to fight the san’yaku again just yet. The give away was that pull attempt that opened the door for Daieisho’s oshidashi. I am sure he will improve his sumo a bit more for Nagoya. Daieisho kachi-koshi at 8-4.

Hoshoryu defeats Hokuseiho – I did enjoy watching Hoshoryu come to grips with the size difference in real time. His body and his movements communicated “wow, what the hell is going on?” at least twice. To his credit he kept trying things until he found one that worked, and forced it to his advantage. The attempt at shitatenage fell apart, but broke Hokuseiho grip, and set up the okuridashi. Both end the day 8-4.
Hoshoryu: 8-4

Kiribayama defeats Takakeisho – As soon as Kiribayama got that right hand belt grip, it was two quick steps to the yorkikiri, and double digits for Kiribayama. Will it be enough for him to reach Ozeki for July? I think we will find out shortly after the tournament ends. He is now 10-2.

Terunofuji defeats Wakamotoharu – Wakamotoharu boldly goes chest to chest with the Yokozuna, and does an admirable job of keeping Terunofuji away from his belt. With a working hold Wakamotoharu surges forward toward the bales, but catches a pivot from Terunofuji and drops as he is placed out for Terunofuji’s 11th win. But the Yokozuna is badly off balanced, and hops down from the dohyo. He looks shocked with pain, and I have to wonder if maybe he did not just end his efforts for May. Terunofuji is 11-1 by yoritaoshi.

Natsu Day 12 Preview

We are about to start day 12, and only a handful of matches remain in the 2022 Natsu basho. It’s going to be intense as we have a lot of high interest matches today including an extended tour of the upper ranks by the Miyagino giant Hokuseiho. The second to last match has a lot of attention from fans, some of them saying that whomever wins will be Ozeki in July. I am not yet convinced that Kiribayama will get the nod this basho if he only beats an injured Takakeisho. Of course the whole matter is up to the Sumo Kyokai, and I am sure we will hear about it shortly after the final match on Sunday.

For Sunday, there is now a Darwin’s Funnel in effect. We can clearly see the schedulers working to herd as many rikishi with middling scores towards a day 14 finishing score of 7-7, setting up a spread of single elimination matches. As nasty and cruel as it may seem, it underscores the zero sumo game that is sumo. Every time someone gets a white star, the other rikishi gets a black star. Thus there are only so many wins in any division at the end of day 15. Those that accumulate a lot, like Terunofuji and Asanoyama, have to pull them from their opponents.\

Natsu Leaderboard

We are nearly to the point where the only path to the cup will be with Terunofuji, Asanoyama and Kiribayama. I still favor Terunofuji to win it all, but the last 4 matches are likely to be brutal. I also wonder how many more upper rank challenges Hokuseiho will face. It’s one thing to throw the former Ozeki M14 Asanoyama at the san’yaku, he more or less belongs there right now, but it’s another thing for Hokuseiho to have a daily diet of sumo’s best right now. For having such challenges in his path, he has done remarkably well.

Leaders: Terunofuji, Asanoyama
Chasers: Kiribayama
Hunt Group: Wakamotoharu, Meisei, Hokuseiho, Tsurugisho

4 Matches Remain

What We Are Watching Day 12

Chiyoshoma (6-5) vs Ichiyamamoto (3-8) – Ichiyamamoto is already make-koshi, and may be employed here to donate a win to Chiyoshoma. He is the Kokonoe heyagashira, and it would be good to keep him in the top division. They have a fairly even 2-3 record, so this is far from a certain win for Chiyoshoma. He still needs 2 wins to reach his 8.

Myogiryu (6-5) vs Daishoho (5-6) – An excellent funnel match, as both of these rikishi are straddling the center line. Ideally Myogiryu would lose and they would both end the day 6-6. The wrinkle in that plan is that Myogiryu has beaten Daishoho in both prior matches.

Mitoryu (4-7) vs Takarafuji (3-8) – Mitoryu is one loss away from make-koshi, and he goes up against already make-koshi Takarafuji, who seems completely unable to execute anything other than the motions of a sumo match, without any of the required power to make it work.

Onosho (6-5) vs Oho (7-4) – As unlikely as it may seem, an Oho win today would be kachi-koshi for him. It would mean an amazing 7 wins out of the last 8 matches, which given how lethargic his sumo has been just does not seem plausible. Onosho won their prior match this year against an overall 1-2 career record. Maybe Onosho can come in ready to grab his 7th win today.

Tsurugisho (8-3) vs Hiradoumi (7-4) – I don’t recall ever seeing Tsurugisho fight this well in the top division. Today’s match will test out just how genki he is during act 3. He gets to face hot shot Hiradoumi, who has beaten Tsurugisho in all 3 prior matches. A win today for Hiradoumi would be kachi-koshi.

Sadanoumi (5-6) vs Kotoeko (6-5) – Both of these rikishi have fought well this basho, but not well enough to escape the funnel. They are straddling the center line and the recommended outcome is both are 6-6 at the end of today. Kotoeko does have a career 9-5 record against Sadanoumi, having won the last 6 matches in a row.

Hokutofuji (4-7) vs Ryuden (4-7) – One of these two will leave the dohyo today with a fresh new make-koshi. We all know that Hokutofuji is the man with the most powerful make-koshi in all of sumo, and that might make him a favorite to lose today. But in fact, he has a 10-5 career lead over Ryuden, who seems to be suffering once more from a chronic hip injury.

Aoiyama (4-7) vs Tamawashi (5-6) – A pair of grizzled old vets with 4 working tendons between them. Both are fighting at maybe 50% intensity, and it’s kind of tough to watch. Sure Aoiyama has a 9-7 career record against Tamawashi, but that’s not likely to matter right now given how banged up they both are. A loss today would be make-koshi for Aoiyama.

Kagayaki (5-6) vs Mitakeumi (6-5) – Another Darwin’s funnel match, with both rikishi straddling the center line. But Kagayaki has never won against Mitakeumi, and if Mitakeumi loses today, I am going to consider revoking his Tadpole status.

Tobizaru (5-6) vs Ura (5-6) – More funnel madness! Both men are 5-6, the winner gets to keep on track for a day 15 Darwin match, the loser is one black star away from make-koshi. Tobizaru holds a 5-1 career advantage, but I try to keep in mind that Ura seems to have found a reserve of reality distortion cream, and is using it to win matches the last 2 days.

Takanosho (4-7) vs Nishikifuji (2-9) – You combine Takanosho’s record, and his 0-3 history against Nishikifuji, and you get a likely outcome of make-koshi for Takanosho today. Nishikifuji is already there, so he is likely happy to bring another into the losing side of the roster. The only problem to that is how poorly Nishikifuji has been fighting this month.

Abi (5-6) vs Meisei (8-3) – Sadly once red hot Meisei has faded into the second week, and has now lost 3 of the last 4 after dropping a match to Hiradoumi on day 8. He has a tough fight against Abi today, who has a 6-4 history of taking his lunch money. In addition, Meisei has lost all prior matches to Abi this year. An Abi win would put him at 6-6, a prime position for the funnel.

Takayasu (1-1-9) vs Midorifuji (3-8) – Takayasu is already at a 10 loss make-koshi, so he’s really just trying to cushion the fall at this point. He’s got size and skill over Midorifuji on a good day, but Midorifuji is not looking anything like his normal self. He’s already make-koshi, and has lost 3 straight matches coming into today.

Kotonowaka (5-6) vs Nishikigi (5-6) – Both are 5-6, so this is a prime funnel match. Kotonowaka has the well earned reputation for being a tough competitor, but I hope he does not underestimate what Nishikigi can do if he gets the right opening. The winner will advance to 6-6 and be in the middle of the funnel for day 13.

Shodai (5-6) vs Kinbozan (4-7) – I am not sure who should win here. I know that if Kinbozan loses he is make-koshi, but that’s going to happen anyhow. If Shodai wins, he’s in the middle of the funnel. Oh my, such temptations. I think it would be best if Kinbozan can stave off make-koshi for another day. This is their first ever match.

Daieisho (7-4) vs Asanoyama (10-1) – Daieisho can reach kachi-koshi and knock Asanoyama out of the lead at the same time. That’s quite a nice ripe peach to be picked. He has a 9-7 career advantage against the former Ozeki, so maybe he can make it work. Their last match was day 12 of Natsu 2021, which Asanoyama won. Let the deja-vu commence!

Hokuseiho (8-3) vs Hoshoryu (7-4) – They are not giving Maegashira 11 Hokuseiho any breaks, he is now stomping up to battle against Hoshoryu, who needs to overcome a ludicrous size advantage to pick up his 8th win and reach kachi-koshi. Hopefully he watch the footage of how Wakamotoharu did it, but I would guess that Hakuho / Miyagino is loading his giant up with some explicit things to try in todays match. Should be worth staying up to watch.

Kiribayama (9-2) vs Takakeisho (7-4) – A big battle in the second to last match. If Takakeisho wins, he clears kadoban. If Kiribayama wins, he reaches double digits and has a fairly strong case to be promoted to Ozeki. If Takakeisho was healthy, he would have the advantage, but we know he is not. I expect Kiribayama is going to capture a belt hold early and toss the Grand Tadpole out of the pond.

Terunofuji (10-1) vs Wakamotoharu (8-3) – They have only fought twice before, with both going to Terunofuji. He’s holding in tough for the final 4 matches, and he’s still the favorite to take the cup. But Wakamotoharu has made a step change improvement to his sumo, and I want to see him give the Yokozuna a challenging fight today.

Makushita Yusho and Promotion Races, Day 11

We’re down to two yusho contenders in Makushita. In the semifinals, Ms2w Shishi was upset by Ms26w Kiryuko, while Ms42e Daishomaru took care of Ms58e Okinohama. So the title will be decided on Day 13 in a match between Kiryuko, a rising prospect, and Daishomaru, a former maegashira who’s broken a streak of 9 straight make-koshi.

At least three Juryo slots are open due to the retirements of Ichinojo and Tochinoshin and the withdrawal of winless Chiyonokuni. Several others may still open. The three open slots are spoken for by Ms1e Shiden (4-2), Ms1w Kawazoe (4-2), and Shishi (5-1). The next-best promotion case belongs to Ms5e Yuma (5-1), who could still use one more win given his relatively low rank. Ms3w Chiyonoumi (3-3), Ms4e Tochimusashi (3-3), and Ms4w Hayatefuji (3-3) all need a win and open slots. They’re likely to be matched with Juryo demotion contenders down the stretch in a series of potential “exchange bouts.”

Oh, and mega-prospect Ms10TD Onosato shook off his opening loss to Ishizaki and now has a 5-1 record.

Promotion/Demotion Picture, Day 11

Ozeki Watch

Kadoban Ozeki Takakeisho (7-4) is within a win of saving his rank. Tomorrow he faces the main promotion contender, Sekiwake Kiribayama (9-2), who is likewise one win away from the promotion target he was set. Daieisho (7-4), who entered the tournament with 22 wins in his previous two basho, could still reach the 11 wins he needs to total 33 over 3, but he must win out, and it’s not clear in his case that 33 would be enough. Wakamotoharu (8-3) and Hoshoryu (7-4) will be looking to post double-digit totals to keep their runs going into July.

San’yaku

All four Sekiwake have done enough to remain in san’yaku, and barring a complete collapse down the stretch by Daieisho and Hoshoryu, should at the very least hold their ranks. But we might be looking for some new Komusubi, with absent Wakatakakage guaranteed to fall deep into the rank and file, while Kotonowaka and Shodai, both 5-6, can only afford a single loss apiece from here on out. At the moment, M6e Meisei (8-3) and M1e Abi (5-6) lead the potential promotion queue; they are matched up tomorrow.

Makuuchi Men in Danger

M13w Ichinojo has retired. Ms15e Ichiyamamoto (3-8) must win out to avoid a demotable score. Ms16e Mitoryu (4-7) and M17e Kagayaki (5-6) each need 3 wins for safety. While a few others (including absent 1-9-1 M5w Kotoshoho) are not completely out of the woods yet, I don’t expect more than four slots to open.

Juryo Promotion Contenders

At the moment, we have only one open slot in the top division, but at least two very strong promotion cases. J1e Gonoyama (10-1), who showed no ill effects from yesterday’s bout and extended his record against J8w Ochiai (10-1) to 2-0, is a lock. J1w Shonannoumi (9-2) will be hard to deny, though whose place he would take is an open question. Ochiai and J3e Bushozan (7-4) still need a couple of wins apiece to mount a real promotion challenge, and even then their chances will depend on how the endangered men in Makuuchi fare the rest of the way. Also on the outskirts of the promotion picture are J4w Roga (7-4), J8e Atamifuji (9-2), and J4e Oshoma (6-5).

Juryo Men in Danger

J5e Tochinoshin has retired. His intai and Ichinojo’s create two openings in the second division. Winless veteran J9w Chiyonokuni (0-10-2), who may be next on the intai watch, has pulled out, and is facing certain demotion. The other winless rikishi, J3w Enho, is also kyujo, though his higher rank holds out some hope that he could survive, depending on the number of promotion cases in Makushita. Last tournament’s lucky escapee, J14w Tsushimanada (4-6), still needs 4 more wins for safety. The others in most danger are J10e Chiyomaru (3-8), J11e Hidenoumi (4-7) and J14e Tokihayate (6-5). As for who is vying to replace them, see today’s Makushita update.