Takekaze (豪風)

Natsu Banzuke Crystal Ball

lksumo Abi (阿炎), Aminishiki (安美錦), Aoiyama, Arawashi (荒鷲), Asanoyama (朝乃山), Banzuke, bcb, Chiyomaru, Chiyonokuni (千代の国), Chiyoshoma, Daiamami (大奄美), Daieisho (大栄翔), Daishomaru, Endo (遠藤), Forecasting, Gōeidō (豪栄道), Hakuho (白鵬), Haru Basho 2018 (Osaka), Hidenoumi, Hokutōfuji (北勝富士), Ichinojo (逸ノ城), Ikioi (勢), Japanese Culture, Juryo (十両), Kachi Koshi, Kagayaki (輝), Kaisei (魁聖), Kakuryu (鶴竜), Kisenosato (稀勢の里), Kotoshogiku (琴奨菊), Kotoyuki, Kyokutaisei, Make Kochi, Mitakeumi(御嶽海), Miyogiryu, Nishikigi, Okinoumi (隠岐の海), promotion, Ryuden (竜電), San'yaku (三役), Sekiwake (関脇), Shohozan, Shōdai (正代直也), Sōkokurai (蒼国来), Takakeishō (貴景勝), Takarafuji (宝富士), Takayasu (高安), Takekaze (豪風), Tamawashi (玉鷲), Tochinoshin (栃ノ心), Tochiozan (栃煌山), Yokozuna (横綱), Yoshikaze (嘉風), Yutakayama, Ōnoshō (阿武咲), Ōzeki (大関)

I started writing these prediction posts exactly a year ago, so this will be my seventh banzuke forecast for Tachiai. The accuracy has varied from basho to basho, though I think it’s fair to say that the forecasts give a very good idea of roughly where each rikishi will land—in most cases, within one rank or closer.

Upper San’yaku

Y1

Kakuryu

Hakuho

Y2

Kisenosato

O1

Takayasu

Goeido

No changes here from the Haru banzuke.

Lower San’yaku

S

Tochinoshin

Ichinojo

K

Endo

 Mitakeumi

With his 7-8 record, Mitakeumi will lose his Sekiwake rank, but should only fall to Komusubi. Tochinoshin moves over to the East side, while Ichinojo moves up to Sekiwake. Endo finally gets his San’yaku promotion, and is a sufficiently strong candidate with his 9-6 record at M1e that I have him on the East side, although the banzuke committee could certainly switch him and Mitakeumi.

Upper Maegashira

M1

Tamawashi

Kaisei

M2

Abi

Shohozan

M3

Daieisho

Yutakayama

M4

Chiyoshoma

Ikioi

M5

Shodai

Kotoshogiku

What’s certain is that there will be a lot of turnover in this area of the banzuke, as with the exception of Shohozan, everyone in the M2-M5 ranks checked in with a losing record, and only Shodai limited his losses to 8. Many in the ranks immediately below this group also did not distinguish themselves, meaning that we have to reach far down the banzuke for viable promotion candidates. Exactly how this will play out is much less certain, as there are many possible scenarios, and the considerations going into them are complex.

Let’s start with the easy part. Both Tamawashi and Kaisei did well enough to earn promotions to San’yaku, but since there are no open slots for them, they will have to be content with the top maegashira rank. Abi and Shohozan are the only plausible candidates for M2, although their ordering is uncertain. Abi will jump 5 ranks, and will join the joi in only his third top-division basho after earning 10-5 records in the first two. Similarly, Daieisho is the only plausible candidate for M3e. He will also jump 5 ranks, matching his highest career rank.

From here, things get complicated. The next best numerical score belongs to Shodai, but he can’t take the M3w slot due to his make-koshi record at M4w. The best he could do would be to remain at his current rank, though it’s more likely he gets a minimal demotion to M5e. Kotoshogiku could technically  be only demoted from M3e to M3w, but given his 6-9 record, this seems overly generous, and he should really be ranked below Shodai. The next best candidate for M3e is none other than Yutakayama, whose 10-5 record could vault him 8 ranks up the banzuke, all the way from M11.

If we put Shodai and M5e and Kotoshogiku right below him at M5w, who fills the M4 slots? The choice is between the next two strong kachi-koshi records, which belong to Chiyoshoma (9-6 at M10) and Ikioi (11-4 at M14), and the other two high-rankers due for big demotions, Komusubi Chiyotairyu (4-11) and M2 Takarafuji (5-10). My forecast favors the guys moving up the banzuke over those moving down. If the banzuke committee agrees, six out of the ten rikishi in this group would be moving up at least 5 ranks!

Mid-Maegashira

M6

Chiyotairyu

Takarafuji

M7

Chiyomaru

Ryuden

M8

Yoshikaze

Hokutofuji

M9

Kagayaki

Daishomaru

M10

Okinoumi

Daiamami

M11

Chiyonokuni

Takakeisho

At Natsu, this area of the banzuke will serve primarily as the landing zone for higher-ranked rikishi who achieved make-koshi records ranging from just below .500 (Yoshikaze, Kagayaki, Okinoumi, Chiyonokuni) to horrific (hello, Chiyotairyu and Takakeisho). The only bright spots are Ryuden, who moves up from M9 with a minimal kachi-koshi, and the Oitekaze stablemates Daishomaru and Daiamami, who vault up and out of the demotion danger zone with their 9-6 and 10-5 records.

Lower Maegashira

M12

Asanoyama

Arawashi

M13

Ishiura

Sadanoumi

M14

Takekaze

Tochiozan

M15

Aoiyama

Kyokutaisei

M16

Aminishiki

Kotoeko

M17

Gagamaru


The bottom of the banzuke is complicated by the fact that there are 6 Makuuchi rikishi who earned demotions by the usual criteria (in order from most to least deserving of demotion: Hedenoumi, Kotoyuki, Sokokurai, Onosho/Nishikigi, and Myogiryu), but only 3 Juryo rikishi who clearly earned promotion: Sadanoumi, Takekaze, and Kyokutaisei. Aminishiki is borderline, and the next two best candidates, Kotoeko (10-5 at J8) and Gagamaru (8-7 at J5), are ranked too low to be normally considered for promotion with those records. Obviously, the numbers moving up and down have to match. What to do?

My initial inclination was to demote Nishikigi in favor of Aminishiki, and save Onosho (who was kyujo) and Myogiryu. Over on the sumo forum, Asashosakari suggested that they could instead demote Onosho and save both Nishikigi and Myogiryu. The solution I’m currently favoring, given how poor their records were, is that both Nishikigi and Myogiryu will be demoted, as will Onosho. I’m guessing that the banzuke committee will be more likely to promote kachi-koshi Juryo rikishi with insufficiently strong records (after all, this has happened in the past) than to keep in the top division rikishi who failed to defend their places there. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see this play out in any number of ways. We’ll find out on April 26th!

 

Haru Day 10 Preview

Bruce H Aoiyama, Chiyomaru, Daiamami (大奄美), Daishomaru, Gōeidō (豪栄道), Haru Basho 2018 (Osaka), Hokutōfuji (北勝富士), Ichinojo (逸ノ城), Ikioi (勢), Kagayaki (輝), Kaisei (魁聖), Kakuryu (鶴竜), Kotoshogiku (琴奨菊), Mitakeumi(御嶽海), Shohozan, Shōdai (正代直也), Takakeishō (貴景勝), Takarafuji (宝富士), Takayasu (高安), Takekaze (豪風), Tochinoshin (栃ノ心), Tochiozan (栃煌山), Yutakayama

Goeido Kensho

We come to the end of act 2 with nearly complete success from the team that puts together the torikumi – the daily fight schedule. Their job in act 2, the middle five days of the tournament, was to narrow down the leaderboard, and to sort the rikishi into three groups: the contenders, the defeated and the survivors. Sumo fans can look across the standings at the end of today, and clearly see each of the three groups taking shape across the top division.

The ultimate score would be to get dirt on either or both of the leaders on the final day of Act 2. This would suddenly make the contender group far more viable, and launch us into act 3. In all basho, act 3 is focused on finding the yusho winner. In general, you want as many of your rikishi who made it into the “Contender” group to be fighting it out every day for their chance to take home the cup, while the rest of the crowd work to avoid being cast into the “defeated” group. We certainly have the crew on deck for this kind of act 3, but our leaders are 2 wins ahead of everyone else, and that makes it quite tough to open the yusho race to a fierce multi-way barnyard brawl. [Especially since one of them is Kakuryu. As the sole Yokozuna in the tournament, his schedule is largely fixed by tradition – he can be expected to fight almost all of the San’yaku in the final five days. The torikumi committee have little desire to change this. –PinkMawashi]

That leads us into day 10, which has some fantastic sumo action, and a number of bouts with “highlight reel” potential.

Haru Leaderboard

Leaders: Kakuryu, Kaisei
Chasers: None
Hunt Group: Takayasu, Tochinoshin, Ichinojo, Daishomaru, Ikioi, Daiamami, Aoiyama

6 Matches Remain

What We Are Watching Day 10

Aoiyama vs Takekaze – Takakaze is up checking out his return to Makuuchi for Natsu, facing off against a seemingly unstoppable wrecking machine in the form of Aoiyama. I am sorry, but I must beat this drum again. Had it not been for the shoddy call on day 5, he would be the sole man at 8-1. A big advantage for Aoiyama in this match.

Tochiozan vs Daiamami – First-time match between an injured and failing Tochiozan, and a rather genki Daiamami. Daiamami is still hanging tough only 2 losses back from the leaders, and his sumo is looking very solid this basho.

Ikioi vs Yutakayama – Ikioi has really been putting on a show for his hometown fans, and they are legion. In spite of his injuries and daily discomfort, this man puts on some solid sumo. Granted he’s down at Maegashira 14 right now and has an easier than normal fight card. But fans new to sumo may be getting a taste of why Ikioi is a big draw for many sumo followers.

Kagayaki vs Daishomaru – Kagayaki is in real danger of being sorted into the “Defeated” group, and he’s up against another of the surging Oitekaze heya team. Historically, it’s 6-2 in Kagayaki’s favor, but Daishomaru is on a roll right now.

Hokutofuji vs Takakeisho – I am going to be watching closely, as I suspect Takakeisho has injured his right thigh or pulled his groin muscle. Either way, he is not moving well and seems to be working to endure his matches. Hokutofuji desperately needs to regroup, and I wonder if the upcoming jungyo tour might actually help him, as he would be sparring daily with a larger variety of rikishi.

Kotoshogiku vs Takarafuji – This has the potential to be a solid bit of sumo, even though Takarafuji, sadly, has just one win. Takarafuji has been putting out a great effort each and every day, just not enough to earn white stars. We saw some great classic Kotoshogiku form on day 9, and if he can muster that again, we could be in for a real battle.

Ichinojo vs Kaisei – Quite possibly the match of the day here, can Kaisei overpower the Boulder? I think it’s mechanically possible, but how it plays out is going to be awesome to watch. Ichinojo still doing quite well and is part of the group 2 behind the leaders.

Mitakeumi vs Shohozan – Both men suffered greatly during act 2, and now both of them are struggling to stay above a 50% win mark. With double digits wins almost mathematically impossible now for Mitakeumi, it will mark another basho where his fans wonder what it will take for him to rise to the next level.

Takayasu vs Shodai – Oh good lord. Unless Shodai “Goes Hulk”, which he does sometimes, this is going to be a question of how long Takayasu wants to play with him before winning.

Tochinoshin vs Goeido – Another option for the match of the day. Goeido lost day 9 due to a poorly timed move. It’s time to see if he puts that aside or if it worries him into another loss. Goeido has a habit of letting one mistake throw off his sumo, and fans are all hoping he can keep steady. Tochinoshin’s sumo just seems to be stronger with each passing match, so this one has much potential with the Hatsu Yusho winner facing down Osaka’s hometown champ.

Kakuryu vs Chiyomaru – The biggest risk here, in my opinion, is an injury to the Yokozuna. Chiyomaru tends to start with a giant blast but rapidly lose stamina. With Kakuryu’s reactive sumo, I am looking for him to blunt Chiyomaru’s opening salvo and work to get him off balance and once again rolling westward. Look out Hiroshima, he’s coming through!

Juryo: Haru Storylines Week 2

Josh K Aminishiki (安美錦), Haru Basho 2018 (Osaka), Juryo (十両), Takanoiwa (貴ノ岩), Takekaze (豪風), Terunofuji (照ノ富士) , , , , , ,

EDION Arena - Enho vs Wakatakakage - Haru 2018 Day 8 Juryo

As we’re midway through the competition and have already revisited our “Ones to Watch” from the bottom four divisions, let’s check in on the storylines facing the men of the Juryo division heading into the second week of action:

1. Can Kyokutaisei win promotion?

Needs for success: 8 wins

Second week prognosis: He’s on the right path, but has been tested. He sits 4-4 after 8 days. He’s at a rank where you’re going to be called up to makuuchi to get tested and make up the numbers, and he’s failed both tests so far (against Aoiyama and Ikioi). His day 8 loss was maybe a bit unlucky in that he nearly pulled out the win, but he’s going to have to find four wins from former top division men like Terunofuji, Gagamaru, and Chiyonoo in the coming days.

2. Golden Oldie Revival?

Needs for success: Old timers show results that state their case for a return to the big time in circumstances where more questions are being asked about how much longer they’ll remain in the sport.

Second week prognosis: Of the five rikishi we’re picking on, Takekaze, Sadanoumi, and Gagamaru look as though they are positioning themselves for quick and perhaps once thought improbable returns to the top flight. All men have six wins after 8 days. Aminishiki, meanwhile, looks set for a rather longer stay in the second tier, clearly hobbled by injuries and destined for a potentially brutal make-koshi. Tokushoryu looks like he might be treading water at his level with a 3-5 start.

3. Whither Kaiju?

Needs for success: passing expectations with a competent kachi-koshi, exceeding expectations with a thunderous yusho challenge and return to makuuchi.

Second week prognosis: Terunofuji is going to run into a handful of guys looking to state their promotion claim in the second week which he starts at a record of 4-4. It’s been a mixed slate so far: the technique is still there, but the strength has eluded him as he looks to rebuild his status following injury and diabetes related issues. Odds are he pulls out four more wins from seven, but he may need another tournament at this level in Tokyo this May before making his return to the big time. Curiously, when I attended Day 8, the applause for Terunofuji during both the Juryo dohyo-iri and his own match was muted compared to many other former makuuchi men in the Juryo division. I would have thought he’d get a least a little more love than he did, all things considered.

4. Takanoiwa

Needs for success: passing expectations with a competent kachi-koshi to knock off the cobwebs, exceeding expectations with a yusho challenge.

Second week prognosis: He won’t challenge for the yusho or even much of a move up the rankings list at Natsu on current form. He finds himself 4-4 and shouldn’t be in any danger of demotion, but he needs to find at least 3 wins to keep himself in the division and regroup for next time. At times the strength of the Takanoiwa we are used to seeing has shown up, but he’s found himself amidst a group of young, hungry rikishi who aren’t giving any quarter in their own efforts to establish themselves as sekitori. The rest of his matches should be against mid-Juryo veterans having middling tournaments, so there’s an opportunity at least to build momentum – after Mitoryu he’ll have faced all the fierce young talents in his way this tournament.

5. The Second Wave

Needs for success: These talented youngsters either need to: Cobble together enough wins to consolidate place in division (Yago, Takagenji, Daishoho, Terutsuyoshi), limit damage and try to avoid demotion if possible (Enho, Takayoshitoshi), continue progress with good kachi-koshi (Mitoryu)

Second week prognosis: Mixed bag, as expected.

Out of the first group (Yago, Terutsuyoshi, Daishoho and Takagenji), only Daishoho looks safe right now with a 5-3 record. Yago’s 2-6 tally leaves him in immediate danger of demotion, and the others are 3-5 and need to find 4 wins from somewhere.

Unfortunately for all of them, they won’t come at the expense of Takayoshitoshi as the kyujo man has faced all of them (except his brother), so none of them will pick up a helpful fusen-sho from his abdication in light of pummeling his tsukebito (instead it will be Ms1 Hakuyozan who picks up the win). Takayoshitoshi was 3-5 and likely heading for the demotion that has now been all but confirmed, and should he indeed remain withdrawn from the entire tournament then he will likely face a drop steep enough to leave him without a tsukebito for at least a couple more tournaments.

Enho, meanwhile, has delivered on his excitement, but hasn’t delivered in terms of wins. His overpromotion has left him a little exposed at the level as he’s even dropped 2 matches to visiting makushita men (and future sekitori) Hakuyozan and Wakatakakage. You can’t do that if you’re trying to stay in the division, and it’s likely that he may face an equally steep demotion as Takayoshitoshi: on current form both men will probably find themselves somewhere between Ms8 and Ms10.

Finally, if there’s a silver lining, it’s been Mitoryu. Much like his progress in Makushita, after taking one basho to settle, he’s really found his form and posted a 7 win tally over the first 8 days. Guys like Takanosho, Kotoeko and Gagamaru are in his future, and possibly if he continues to lead the yusho arasoi, potentially even Takekaze. So, it’s possible that this week we may already get to see what the talented young Mongolian can do against men with top level pedigree, and I’ll go out on a limb and say that on current form he will pass  his compatriot Terunofuji on the May banzuke.

Haru Day 2 Highlights

Bruce H Abi (阿炎), Aoiyama, Arawashi (荒鷲), Chiyomaru, Chiyonokuni (千代の国), Chiyoshoma, Daiamami (大奄美), Daieisho (大栄翔), Daishomaru, Endo (遠藤), Gōeidō (豪栄道), Haru Basho 2018 (Osaka), Hidenoumi, Hokutōfuji (北勝富士), Ichinojo (逸ノ城), Ikioi (勢), Ishiura (石浦), Kagayaki (輝), Kaisei (魁聖), Kakuryu (鶴竜), Kotoshogiku (琴奨菊), Mitakeumi(御嶽海), Okinoumi (隠岐の海), Ryuden (竜電), Shohozan, Shōdai (正代直也), Takakeishō (貴景勝), Takarafuji (宝富士), Takayasu (高安), Takekaze (豪風), Tamawashi (玉鷲), Tochinoshin (栃ノ心), Tochiozan (栃煌山), Yoshikaze (嘉風), Yutakayama , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Kakuryu Osaka 2018

A quick recap of day two action from Osaka. Ichinojo looks to be the real spoiler for this basho, and as long as he keeps up this run, he’s going to be tough to beat. Takayasu seems to be off to a cold start, and Mitakeumi can smell the opportunity ripe in the air. Can he finally score double digits this time? We get to see Takakeisho unleash his wave-action attack, and Shohozan lands a beauty of a slap.

Highlight Matches

Aoiyama defeats Daiamami – It’s tough to know what plagued Aoiyama in Kyushu, but he looks to be back to his overpowering self now. At the very bottom of the Makuuchi division, he can do a lot of damage if he is healthy. The enormous left knee bandage is a worry, but he seems to be moving well enough for now.

Hidenoumi defeats Takekaze – Takekaze tries to hit and shift, but Hidenoumi stays low and engaged. Clearly, Hidenoumi knew what to expect, and read the situation well. This could be the twilight of veteran Takekaze’s time on camera.

Ikioi defeats Myogiryu – Myogiryu came out of the tachiai strong, but Ikioi very effectively blocked him, tied him up and shut him down. Myogiryu rallied, but Ikioi had the inside position and stepped back, forcing Myogiryu off balance. Ikioi charged and used his momentum to drive Myogiryu from the dohyo. Nicely done, in spite of Ikioi’s injuries.

Ishiura defeats Daishomaru – These Ishiura henkas are getting boring. This one had a nice variation, in that Ishiura rolled into a quick sukuinage.

Yutakayama defeats Chiyoshoma – Nice drive from Yutakayama, and Chiyoshoma can put up almost no resistance. Yutakayama had difficulty holding on to his Maegashira rank in his first few attempts, but he seems to have settled into the top division.

Chiyonokuni defeats Tochiozan – Tochiozan is clearly still injured, but Chiyonokuni drives hard (as he always does), and dominates Tochiozan.

Kagayaki defeats Okinoumi – Some nice work here by Kagayaki, who fights hard to get inside, and focuses on keeping control of Okinoumi’s upper body while relentlessly driving forward. The veteran can’t recover, and it’s Kagayaki’s win.

Daieisho defeats Ryuden – Daieisho came off the line hard and was nothing short of fierce in his bout today against Ryuden. At no point did he let Ryuden mount an effective defense or offense. A half step ahead from the start, Daieisho drove Ryuden from the ring.

Kaisei defeats Abi – It’s really interesting to see Abi work at this higher rank. He is encountering some big men who are fairly genki this tournament. Abi starts with nodowa and tries to convert that into a slap down, but Kaisei is too massive and too stable. Once Abi starts moving backward, Kaisei chases him down for the win.

Yoshikaze defeats Hokutofuji – Hokutofuji really applies himself in this match and has Yoshikaze back in a hurry, and off balance. But the Berserker rallies and gets Hokutofuji in retreat. Both of them take a dive off the lip of the dohyo, with an unfortunate tea-bag delivered by Yozhikaze in the lap of a shimpan.

Shohozan defeats Chiyomaru – Trading blows from the tachiai, this match features a really energetic slap delivered to Chiyomaru’s face, which seems to disrupt his thrusting attack. From there it’s all Shohozan for the win.

Takakeisho defeats Shodai – Takakeisho takes full advantage of Shodai’s weak and high tachiai, coming in low, strong and fast. From there, he fires up the “wave action” and Shodai is doomed. Shodai tries a wave himself and receives a pride obliterating face-slap from Takakeisho. This was all Takakeisho’s sumo.

Kotoshogiku defeats Chiyotairyu – While it looked like Kotoshogiku was going to set up the Hug-N-Chug, he rolled to his right for a nice sukuinage. Chiyotairyu was defeated before he knew what happened.

Mitakeumi defeats Takarafuji – Mitakeumi battles hard immediately to block Takarafuji landing a controlling grip, and for a time the two of them struggle almost motionless in the middle of the dohyo. You can see the extreme exertion as each man tries to overpower the other. To Mitakeumi’s credit, Takarafuji breaks the scrum and manages to get Mitakeumi moving backward, but Mitakeumi takes his time and counter-attacks. Nice sumo from both men.

Tamawashi defeats Tochinoshin – Tochinoshin was driving hard for a grip, and Tamawashi used that to his advantage. Unable to get the match on his terms, Tochinoshin battled hard but it was Tamawashi who called the tune.

Ichinojo defeats Takayasu – I fear that Pooh-Bear has gotten so used to using that shoulder blast, he is not sure how to engage someone like Ichinojo. Clearly, he is off the pace and out of his element from the start, and Ichinojo gives him no quarter. Takayasu drives forward against Ichinojo’s immovable bulk, and Ichinojo helps him continue in motion all the way to the clay. The big Mongolian made it look easy.

Goeido defeats Arawashi – Good thing, too! Goeido launched early, and it should have probably been a matta. He was in Arawashi’s chest in no time and drove him back and out.

Kakuryu defeats Endo – Endo made him work hard for this win, and really put up a strong fight against the sole surviving Yokozuna. Endo drove Kakuryu back to the tawara within the first few moments, but the Yokozuna’s reactive sumo took over and got Endo off balance and moving towards the center of the ring. A well-timed hatakikomi sent Endo to the clay.