Natsu Basho 2019

Coverage of the May 2019 tournament

All’s Well That Ends Well

lksumo Natsu Basho 2019

Many of the storylines we’ve been following were resolved by the outcomes of today’s bouts, but for a number of rikishi, plenty is at stake on the final day. First off, congratulations to Asanoyama on a well-deserved victory! He becomes only the 19th maegashira to claim the yusho in the six-basho era, and the lowest-ranked winner in 19 years. Although he did not fight a full slate of San’yaku rikishi, Asanoyama’s fight card was by no means light and includes victories over many of the top performers of this tournament, punctuated by the clinching win against the strongest Ozeki, Goeido. Tachiai hopes that this is only the first of many big fish we see him lift.

Yesterday’s debacle prevented us from seeing the yusho come down to exciting final-day bouts, and I’m sad not to see Tochinoshin (or for that matter, Tamawashi, who improved to 10-4 under the radar) get a shot at his second top-division championship (I’m sure fans of Kakuryu feel the same way). But Tochinoshin did get his crucial 10th victory and will once again be Ozeki in Nagoya, and it’s hard to argue that any of the three jun-yusho leaders have been in championship form recently.

San’yaku Scenarios

Today’s matches really clarified the San’yaku picture for Nagoya. Tochinoshin’s victory guarantees that he will vacate his Sekiwake West slot via promotion. Ichinojo’s demotion to the rank-and-file got even more certain with his 10th loss/absence, which removed any chance of him only dropping to Komusubi. And Mitakeumi locked down his modern-record 15th consecutive tournament in lower San’yaku when he picked up his 8th win. That’s one slot claimed, and two guaranteed to open. The remaining questions revolve around the occupants of those slots, their order, and the final Komusubi slot.

These questions should be resolved tomorrow by the outcomes of three key bouts matching up all six rikishi still in the conversation: M4 Abi (9-5) vs. M3 Tamawashi (10-4), M8 Asanoyama (12-2) vs. K Mitakeumi (8-6), and K Aoiyama (6-8) vs. M5 Ryuden (9-5). Mitakeumi, Tamawashi, and Asanoyama should be ranked in San’yaku no matter what. The final slot is Abi’s with a win. Should he lose to Tamawashi, a Ryuden victory over Aoiyama would make Ryuden West Komusubi. If Abi and Ryuden both lose, then it’s not clear whether Abi’s 9-6 record at M4 would be sufficient to relegate a 7-8 Aoiyama to the rank-and-file, or if he’d get to merely slide over to the West side a la Mitakeumi last basho.

Mitakeumi will be ranked Sekiwake with a win, and possibly with a loss and a loss by Tamawashi; otherwise, he should stay East Komusubi. Likewise, Tamawashi will be Sekiwake with a win, and possibly with a loss if Mitakeumi loses. I’ll make my predictions for the exact order after tomorrow’s results are in.

Kachi-koshi and Make-koshi

Six rikishi have left their banzuke fate until the final day. And of course, the schedulers have paired them up in “Darwin bouts,” so that three of them will fall on each side of the line between winning and losing records. It’ll be Tomokaze vs. Sadanoumi, Onosho vs. Chiyomaru, and Shohozan vs. Enho. None are involved in the promotion/demotion scenarios discussed above and below, so the biggest things at stake are Tomokaze’s record of never recording a make koshi as a professional, and Enho’s health. Take care of yourself, pixie.

Juryo Demotions and Makuuchi Promotions

After today, this looks quite clear. Toyonoshima, visiting from Juryo, got his 8th win and will be back in the top division in July. He defeated Ishiura, who sealed a trip to Juryo with his 9th loss. He joins Chiyoshoma and Tokushoryu on the down elevator. (Tochinoshin’s re-promotion means that the M17e rank will be going away along with Chiyoshoma.) Coming up with Toyonoshima will be the Juryo yusho winner, Takagenji (13-1), and Kotoyuki (10-4). Kagayaki removed himself from demotion danger with his 4th win, and while Terutsuyoshi still needs one win, he will probably survive for the second straight time even with a 6-9 record near the bottom of the division, as the next-best candidates for promotion, the J4 duo of Takanosho and Azumaryu, both 7-7, won’t have a strong enough claim even with a final-day win.

Several of tomorrow’s matchups can only be described as “bouts of sadness”: slated-for-demotion Chiyoshoma vs. Juryo visitor Ikioi, both 4-10, just-barely-safe Kagayaki (4-10) vs. slated-for-demotion Ishiura (5-9), and slated-for-demotion Tokushoryu (3-11) vs. the ghost of Yoshikaze (4-10).

Come back tomorrow for a full wrap-up of the Natsu basho and predictions for Nagoya!

Lower divisions – Days 13 and 14

Herouth Natsu Basho 2019 , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Hey, Hoshoryu, Asashoryu called and asked for his game face to be returned

Hey, I owe you readers two days of randomly picked lower division bouts!

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Natsu Day 14 Highlights

Bruce H Abi (阿炎), Aoiyama, Asanoyama (朝乃山), Chiyomaru, Chiyotairyū (千代大龍), Daieisho (大栄翔), Daishoho, Endo (遠藤), Enho, Gōeidō (豪栄道), Hokutōfuji (北勝富士), Ichinojo (逸ノ城), Ishiura (石浦), Kagayaki (輝), Kakuryu (鶴竜), Kotoeko, Kotoshogiku (琴奨菊), Meisei, Mitakeumi(御嶽海), Myogiryu (妙義龍), Natsu Basho 2019, Nishikigi, Okinoumi (隠岐の海), Ryuden (竜電), Sadanoumi (佐田の海), Shimanoumi, Shohozan, Shōdai (正代直也), Takarafuji (宝富士), Takayasu (高安), Tamawashi (玉鷲), Tochinoshin (栃ノ心), Tochiozan (栃煌山), Yoshikaze (嘉風), Ōnoshō (阿武咲) , ,
Edo or Tokyo? – The Classic Stylings of Asanoyama

Day 14 showed us another look at the future of sumo. We have been getting these a few times a year since Hakuho has gone into an on again / off again mode, and can no longer be counted on to dominate a basho. With Harumafuji out of sumo all together, the mainstays that would keep the lower ranks beat down have been removed, and new champions are free to emerge. We have moved from the homogenized “Every yusho is Hakuho” world into an environment where a hard working, dedicated and skilled Maegashira 8 can take the yusho. Our hearty congratulations to Asanoyama.

We noticed Asanoyama some time ago, and he distinguished himself early with his solid sumo, and his fantastic attitude. Every day he mounted the dohyo, no matter what the score, he was just happy to be doing sumo that day. Since his top division debut, I made and used the somewhat humorous tag “Asanoyama ❤️ Sumo”, but it really shows. Some time in the past year, he has dialed in a classic style that looks straight out of a 19th century wood block print, and has used it this May with great effect.

Congratulations to Asanoyama, it could not have happened to a nicer guy.

Highlight Matches

Toyonoshima defeats Ishiura – Toyonoshima picks up his 8th win, and more or less ensures that Ishiura will be headed back to Juryo. Ishiura is still struggling to enact a working pixie sumo formula, and Juryo is a fine place to sort that out once again. But Hakuho’s dream of having a dohyo-iri with Enho and Ishiura is on hold for a while longer.

Shimanoumi defeats Enho – After a cold start, Shimanoumi comes roaring back to score at least 9 wins for Natsu, and putting Enho on the make/kachi-koshi line. Enho is clearly still suffering from whatever happened to his right thigh, and it may have gotten worse in his day 14 loss.

Shohozan defeats Terutsuyoshi – That’s 2 of the 3 pixies with make-koshi records for May. The entire cohort faded into week 2, but I hope nobody thinks this is a repudiation of the pixie sumo style. They will be back after some tune-ups. But this many losing records at the bottom of the banzuke raises the question of who is going back to Juryo.

Daishoho defeats Tochiozan – Daishoho once again executes well, picking up his 9th win while giving Tochiozan his make-koshi. The match was really all Daishoho, who took the inside road at the tachiai, and did as he pleased with Tochiozan.

Kagayaki defeats Sadanoumi – Sadanoumi’s opening gambit fails, and he finds himself without workable defensive foot placement. Kagayaki plows ahead and bodily removes Sadanoumi from the dohyo for the win.

Yago defeats Nishikigi – Nishikigi’s preferred arm-bar hold seems to have run out of gas at least for this basho. He manages to pin Yago’s left arm, but after consoldiatinlg his position, Yago uses a maemitsu grip to maneuver Nishikigi over and out for a loss.

Tomokaze defeats Chiyoshoma – Chiyoshoma goes down to his 10th loss, and will be deep back in the Juryo pack for July. Tomokaze has one more day to secure his 12th consecutive kachi-koshi.

Abi defeats Meisei – I cringe now when I see a monoii in the top division. It’s like “What kind of nonsense is Onomatsu oyakata going to utter this time?”. They give the win to Abi, both men advance to a respectable 9-5.

Chiyotairyu defeats Tokushoryu – Out running Chiyoshoma in the race back to Juryo is Tokushoryu, who has looked absolutely terrible this basho. His sumo is so much better than this, and I just have to assume some new or old injury has limited him.

Tamawashi defeats Kotoeko – Tamawashi goes to double digits, and complicates the Nagoya San’yaku picture somewhat. His sumo is back to being strong, focused and able to overcome quite a bit. Will he he turn it up to 11?

Endo defeats Onosho – Did you see the point where Onosho is driving forward, and decides he wants to try to pull Endo down? Yes, that’s the moment where the match was lost. Endo is too sharp to throw that kind of opportunity away.

Daieisho defeats Chiyomaru – Chiyomaru seemed to have zero power today, and Daieisho was fully charged. Solid center-mass thrusting attack from Daieisho for the win. Although he is make-koshi, his sumo is holding up well into the end of the second week.

Hokutofuji defeats Yoshikaze – Yoshikaze’s sumo is completely broken right now. His style is usually fast paced strike-and-move combos that leave his opponents reacting, usually at least a half step behind. Whatever is plaguing you, Yoshikaze, we hope you can heal.

Myogiryu defeats Kotoshogiku – Kotoshogiku held the advantage in this match until he got a bit too eager to close the deal, giving Myogiryu a narrow window to rally and execute a throw. Great kubinage in a tight spot from Myogiryu.

Okinoumi defeats Aoiyama – Aoiyama decides to pull, and gets it stuffed in his mawashi by Okinoumi. Cut it out guys!

Mitakeumi defeats Takarafuji – Mitakeumi picks up his 8th win and secures a return to at least Komusubi for July. This match was all Mitakeumi, with him gaining the inside grip at the tachiai, staying low and just driving ahead.

Ryuden defeats Ichinojo – Ryuden picks up win 9 in this well executed match against Ichinojo, who is fighting better than I expected given his injury. I think we are just starting to see what Ryuden is capable of.

Shodai defeats Takayasu – Takayasu is a complete wreck this basho. He seems to have neglected the superior lateral mobility that Shodai brings to nearly every match, and finds his forward pressure against Shodai’s chest instantly transformed into a tumbling move into thin air.

Asanoyama defeats Goeido – Good sumo today from Goeido, but Asanoyama was better. Congratulations to overcoming both an Ozeki and an Ozekiwake to take the cup! His only losses where to hard core oshi-power rikishi (Tamawashi and Onosho) who shut down Asanoyama’s yotsu attack. Goeido took him on chest-to-chest, but Asanoyama kept low and focused his power forward.

Tochinoshin defeats Kakuryu – Well, can’t put it off any more. That henka had really no place at this level of sumo. I get why he did it; he’s hurt, he needed one more win to get back to Ozeki, and he thinks he was robbed day 13. He needed one more white star by any means he could get one. Kakuryu should have known this and made him eat it, but Kakuryu is himself at only about 80% genki, and is probably expecting the left hand outside followed by the sky crane. Welcome back to Ozeki Tochinoshin. If you don’t get your body back in fighting shape, you are going to be right back here again by Kyushu.

The Choice To “Pull”

Andy Natsu Basho 2019, Tochinoshin (栃ノ心) ,
“Back, and To the Left”

For the facts and the debate about the Tochinoshin-Asanoyama match, I will refer you to Herouth’s thorough, Oliver Stone-esque, examination of the Zapruder film. There was one more decision that I want to look at, Tochi’s decision to “pull.” When I refer to “pulling,” it’s the act of moving backwards, with the hand cupped around the back of the opponent’s head, in an attempt to drag him down for a hatakikomi victory. For example, Abi used this tactic to defeat Tochinoshin on Day 11, starting this three bout losing streak.

In the bout against Abi, there was no doubt as Abi’s heel remained high in the air when he backed up against the tawara. But in all honesty, when a rikishi makes the decision to pull, he is frequently putting his fate in the hands of video review. Either someone steps out, falls first, or there’s a hair pull. I wish there was a way to query the SumoDB for failed pulls because we’ve all seen them cost Kakuryu and Goeido shots at titles.

The move often begins in the center of the ring, or sometimes even closer to the straw bales. In many instances, the “attacker/retreater” springs off the dohyo hoping the opponent falls before he himself plummets beneath the plane of the dohyo and onto an unlucky ojisan in the front row. This was the case of Abi’s attempt in yesterday’s bout against Aoiyama, immediately prior to the Tochinoshin/Asanoyama bout.

Watch the replay from the opposite, original angle and watch Tochinoshin’s foot twist in recoil immediately after his heel goes over the boundary. From the head on angle you don’t see whether it touches and it’s honestly a moot point. He knows that outside the dohyo is “hot lava” and he got close enough to get singed.

Followers of Tachiai’s reporting will likely be familiar with the rather dimly held view we have of “pulling”…particularly when employed by members of the elite corps of Yokozuna and Ozeki. When it’s used by Goeido, Kakuryu, or even Hakuho and Takayasu, it’s a signal that a nagging injury may have cropped up. Lower ranked guys like Abi get a bit of a pass. In Abi’s case, it is one of his preferred attacks, accounting for nearly a fifth of his wins. This fact will likely keep him from progressing further up the banzuke unless he develops stronger thrusting approaches or adds some belt work to his repertoire.

If Tochinoshin wants to regain his ozeki rank in a few hours, he will use the brand of sumo that got him here. Or, Kakuryu may tempt fate by employing his own disastrous pull as he’s been known to do at times. While Kakuryu dominates their long term head-to-head rivalry, over the last year they’ve been very evenly matched, trading wins over the past few basho, and it may be Tochi’s turn.

The bottom line is, Tochinoshin put himself in great position to get his 10 wins and hopefully he’ll get there. He will have the best chance, doing it on his terms, using the brand of sumo that got him where he is. Clinching his rank against a Yokozuna or Ozeki, when his win against Takakeisho came by fusen, is honestly more deserving and poetic than against a maegashira. He’ll get there. I gotta keep telling myself, “he’ll get there.”