Sumo fans all over the world can’t wait for the Day 15 clash between the two top-ranked men on the banzuke, both 14-0 for only the 6th such matchup in sumo history. Let’s look at what is at stake further down the banzuke.
Ozeki Shodai (7-7) needs one more win to avoid going kadoban. He will have to get it in what is set to be one heck of an undercard “Darwin bout” against Takayasu (7-5-2) on senshuraku.
Two Sekiwake slots are spoken for: one by the demotion of suspended Ozeki Asanoyama and the other by the newly kachi-koshi incumbent Mitakeumi (8-6). Takayasu (7-4-2) can claim a third by defeating Shodai. A loss would drop him to Komusubi. If Takayasu wins and shin-Komusubi Meisei (7-7) loses his own “Darwin bout” against Kagayaki, two Komusubi slots will open. The opposite set of results would leave none, while anything in between will leave just one.
M2w Ichinojo (9-5) has now locked up the first slot, should one open. If a second Komusubi slot becomes available, it will go to the winner of the bout between M3e Hokutofuji (8-6) and M5w Hoshoryu (9-5).
At the other end of the scale, we have one guaranteed exchange between Makuuchi and Juryo, with M14e Daiamami (4-10) going down and J1e Yutakayama (10-4) taking his place. Beyond that, things are less clear. J6w Mitoryu (11-3) has a promotable record, but there isn’t yet a second demotable top-division rikishi. The candidates for the infamous “Juryo barge” are M15w Tokushoryu (6-8), the last man on the banzuke—M17e Ichiyamamoto (7-7)—and potentially M16e Chiyonokuni (7-7), who faces a man 14 ranks above him, M2e Takanosho (7-7), in—you guessed it—another Darwin bout. A loss there and wins by Mitoryu, Ichiyamamoto, and Tokushoryu could yet send Chiyonokuni down.
The only other man in the mix for promotion is J2w Akua (8-6), who most likely needs to beat Ishiura and have Ichiyamamoto and Tokushoryu lose in order to return to the top division.
Finally, we have an exciting yusho race in Juryo. In addition to Mitoryu, former top-division mainstay Abi also sports an 11-3 record. The two have already faced off, so if one wins and the other loses, there’s your champion. If both win, we’ll have a playoff rematch, while if both lose, the playoff will be joined by the winner of the bout between Yutakayama and Kaisho (10-4), who is having a breakout tournament. Tune in tomorrow to find out!
Over the course of day 14, a magical feast of sumo was set for us to enjoy on senshuraku, the final day. Four Darwin matches, rank battles and the “Brawl to end it all” to finish it all off for the Emperor’s Cup. For the first basho in a year to feature Hakuho on day 15, the Sumo kyokai milked it for every drop, and I could not be happier with how it has unfolded.
Four more rikishi hit kachi-koshi today, and the safety of 8 wins, and a total of eight who enter day 15 with 7-7 records.
No matter what happens tomorrow, the yusho will go to a perfect 15-0 score, which has not happened since March of 2019, when Hakuho took the cup in Osaka. From the two leaders, this has been nothing short of maximum sumo for the full 14 days, and sumo fans around the world are happy to see such dominant execution from not just one, but two rikishi during this Nagoya basho. It’s been a hell of a ride so far, with day 15 yet to come.
Highlight Matches
Daiamami defeats Wakamotoharu – Nice ottsuke from Daiamami today shut down any attempt by Wakamotoharu to get that left hand inside to set up an attack. Daiamami shuts it down, and then marches him out. Simple, clean, effective. Daiamami improves to 4-10.
Tochinoshin defeats Ichiyamamoto – Tochinoshin found a way to stay in the ring as Ichiyamamoto attacked well early. But then his left hand found its mark. That right knee is still little more than gristle and old UCC coffee cans taped together, but out came the sky-crane. Ichiyamamoto had never faced Tochinoshin before, so he had no idea what this guy was capable of. 140kg of rikishi left the clay as Tochinoshin bodily carried him out to advance to 6-8. Ichiyamamoto ends the day at 7-7, and will face his first top division Darwin match to decide if he gets to stay in Makuuchi.
Tokushoryu defeats Kaisei – Tokushoryu hit and shift left at the tachiai by Tokushoryu had almost zero effect, and Kaisei responded by landing a deep left hand grip. Kaisei appeared to have advantage as the two pressed forward against each other. Tokushoryu lifted with his right, got Kaisei off balance and threw him down with a sukuinage for the win. Tokushoryu improves to 6-8, Kaisei picks up his 8th loss, and he is make-koshi.
Tsurugisho defeats Terutsuyoshi – Terutsuyoshi hits fast at the tachiai, and latches on with his left hand, his head buried in Tsurugisho’s chest. This only slows Tsurugisho down for a moment, who is strong enough to lift Terutsuyoshi and carry him over the bales. Tsurugisho improves to 8-6 and is kachi-koshi for July.
Shimanoumi defeats Chiyonokuni – I once again marvel at just how frantic Chiyonokuni’s thrusting attacks can be. Shimanoumi tries to respond, but Chiyonokuni is delivering 3 hits for every 1 he receives. Shimanoumi decides thats not going to work and takes Chiyonokuni to his chest. Shimanoumi’s left hand drives the rest of the match, setting up the uwatenage that drops Chiyonokuni to the clay. Shimanoumi improves to 8-6 and is kachi-koshi. Chiyonokuni is 7-7 and it’s Darwin for him.
Kotonowaka defeats Takarafuji – Kotonowaka is really on his sumo this July, and we have not seen anything like this level of performance from him since January during his second tournament in the top division. Takarafuji got his preferred grip at the tachiai, and even the esteemed Murray Johnson said of Kotonowaka, “Now, he’s in trouble”, and for a moment it looked like he was. But Kotonowaka was able to blunt each of Takarafuji’s probing attacks, as the veteran inched Kotonowaka closer to the bales. But Kotonowaka was well aware of the edge of the ring. He lifted and pivoted and placed Takarafuji out to rack his 11th win. Wow, the sky’s the limit for you sir.
Chiyoshoma defeats Ishiura – Chiyoshoma had his hands up early at the tachiai, in an attempt to keep Ishiura at a good distance while the Chiyoshoma set up his match plan. Chiyoshoma gets the right hand deep, near the mawashi knot, and finds a shallow right hand grip. He did not wait a moment for Ishiura to defend, as Chiyoshoma has the uwatenage cocked, and he lets it fly with glorious effect. That’s Chiyoshoma’s 8th win and he picks up a well deserved kachi-koshi.
Onosho defeats Chiyonoo – Chiyonoo let Onosho get both hands inside and square his shoulders. At that point, Onosho could push forward with all of his considerable strength without fear of slap down, and he drove Chiyonoo quickly out. Chiyonoo drops to 7-7 and will enjoy a day 15 Darwin match, while Onosho improves to 6-8.
Kagayaki defeats Okinoumi – Okinoumi picks up his 6th consecutive loss, as he yielded the inside route to Kagayaki. Perhaps he was looking to get a hand hold on Kagayaki’s mawashi and work for a belt attack? None of it was working for him, he tried a pull, which failed as well. All this time Kagayaki keeps up the pressure against center mass, and Okinoumi finds himself pushed out to drop to 5-9. Kagayaki improves to 7-7, and joins the Darwin group.
Chiyomaru defeats Kotoeko – I don’t know whats broken inside of Kotoeko, but I do hope that he can get it fixed. As with all other matches of this basho, Kotoeko attacked with vigor, but Chiyomaru endured and gave as well as he received, up to the point where Kotoeko was off balance, and then Chiyomaru delivered the hatakikomi. Chiyomaru improves to 6-8.
Tamawashi defeats Hokutofuji – Woah! Hokutofuji charges in at full power, Tamawashi puts a left on Hokutofuji’s shoulder, and a right hand on his neck and just tosses 162kg of Hokutofuji bodily to the clay. Tamawashi improves to 11-3. One of the biggest oshitaoshi I have seen in a while.
Myogiryu defeats Tobizaru – Tobizaru really put some effort into today’s match, but he left sense center of balance back in the heya again today, and found himself stumbling at the moment he should have put the doom on Myogiryu. Myogiryu obliges with a hatakikomi to send Tobizaru to a blistering 11th loss for Nagoya. Myogiryu improves to 4-10.
Takanosho defeats Hidenoumi – The schedulers made sure there were no winners to this match, only someone who lost somewhat more than the other. Takanosho opened strong, landed a nodowa, and drove Hidenoumi out for his 8th loss and make-koshi. Takanosho picks up his 7th win and joins the Darwin clan for day 15 special treatment.
Ichinojo defeats Kiribayama – The Ichinojo matta is almost obligatory now. I think he’s had one almost every day this week. When the fight gets underway, it’s all a contest for hand placement. Ichinojo manages to get a right hand inside, but Kiribayama establishes an arm bar, and it’s stalemate. Another volley of grip change and struggle for placement, now Ichinojo has right hand outside. But still no one has enough leverage to attack, stalemate again. Ichinojo executes a grip shift to go right hand inside, consolidates his stance, lowers his hips and delivers the yorikiri. Ichinojo improves to 9-5.
Aoiyama defeats Daieisho – Aoiyama reaches in for an immediate pull down in the tachiai, catching Daieisho before he can take his first step, and drops him to the clay. Ugly win, but it worked. Aoiyama improves to 6-8.
Chiyotairyu defeats Wakatakakage – Chiyotairyu, where has that been for the last 2 weeks? That’s traditional cannonball tachiai from him, straight into a thrusting combo delivered center mass. Wakatakakage can’t withstand that much force, and finds himself thrusted out of the ring. Both end the day with dismal 4-10 records.
Ura defeats Meisei – We mused about Ura appearing so late in the day when he is ranked at only Maegashira 13, but the schedulers knew what they were doing with this one. Meisei comes in hard and fast, and nearly overpowers Ura in the opening salvo. Ura is forced back and has to absorb a volley to his chin to stay in the match. But Meisei can’t finish him. Ura goes low, gets a left hand outside grip, and goes to work. The key to what happened here seems to be a right hand grab and tug against Meisei’s left, which caused Meisei to pull that left arm back, opening up a route for Ura’s right hand to find Meisei’s mawashi. Meisei was too high following his opening attack, Ura drops his hips, and rushes him out for the win. Ura improves to 9-5, and Meisei joins the Darwin crowd.
Mitakeumi defeats Hoshoryu – Points to Hoshoryu for a well executed match. He comes in hard with a straight ahead opening gambit, but there is just too much Mitakeumi for him to really move. Mitakeumi absorbs this first salvo, closes the distance and grapples. With Hoshoryu pinned against his body, he marches forward to score his 8th win, and secure kachi-koshi in Nagoya.
Terunofuji defeats Takayasu – Takayasu opened well, getting his hands inside and piling up the pressure against the Ozeki’s chest and neck. But as we have seen several times in the past week, Terunofuji has remarkable hip flexibility and power. He shifts his upper body to the right and shuts down Takayasu’s attacks. The two stalemate for a minute, neither able to get any hand placement or deliver power into their opponent’s body. Again Terunofuji’s hips come into play as he applies a lot of lateral force into Takayasu, which turns him just a bit to the side. With Takayasu turned and off balance, Terunofuji attacks and runs Takayasu out. 14-0 for Terunofuji, just amazing sumo this month. If they don’t give this man a rope, they will wish they had.
Hakuho defeats Shodai – A number of commenters on Twitter wondered what Hakuho was up to with this match. He lined up at the tawara, and had to take two steps to first contact. I thought it was brilliant, as it shut down all manner of Shodai cartoon sumo. In fact, you could imagine that Hakuho wanted to use cartoon sumo himself against Shodai. As his frequently the case with Hakuho, he delights in using his opponent’s favorite techiques against them to win. It clearly confounded Shodai, and whatever he had in mind for a fight plan was out the window. Hakuho keeps out of Shodai’s battle-embrace, and keeps slapping him in the face. When Hakuho does dive in, he outright tackles Shodai for the win. 14-0 for the Boss. Frankly I loved this match. I am quite certain Shodai had no idea what to do with Hakuho’s sumo today. Bloody brilliant.
Oh, final weekend, here you are! What a joy and delight this July tournament has been. We have two top men in sumo going into day 14 undefeated, and the winning score will be at least 14 or 15 wins, a worthy tournament indeed. Both Hakuho and Terunofuji have fought very well, and I am delighted that they have a big show down at the end of day 15.
While we have two who are flying towards sumo’s stratospheric heights, there is a broad set of 14 rikishi caught in what I have named “Darwin’s funnel”. The schedulers clearly are trying to shape the field to have as many rikishi as possible start day 15 with 7-7 records, setting up a series of “Darwin matches”, where one man takes home a winning record, and the other a losing record. Survival of the fittest in a pure and brutal form. Its tough to guess how many of these rikishi will end today at 7-7, but the list of candidates includes kanban names like Takayasu, Shodai, Mitakeumi, Chiyoshoma, Chiyonokuni, Takanosho and Kagayaki. What a roster!
The final question left unanswered, will Terunofuji get promoted to Yokozuna. It seems that the Shimpan, who have the final say, are already thinking this one over, including his oyakata who is the lead. Herouth brings us the details
Isegahama: "This is only a personal opinion, but today Terunofuji ensured at least a jun-yusho. While it's better if he wins the yusho proper, as far as results go I think he has enough for promotion". https://t.co/gQA1AagEpS
No matter what happens in his match against Takayasu today, the last match on Sunday will decide the yusho, it only means that Terunofuji would need to beat Hakuho twice to take the cup. This means that no matter what, Terunofuji has achieved the jun-yusho for Nagoya 2021. This will be his 6th yusho or jun-yusho since his return to the top division, out of 7 basho. Honestly, a 13-0 record with that count in the past year screams “Yokozuna”, but I suspect that Terunofuji is not quite done with Nagoya yet. But he may, in fact, have convinced the judges that he is ready.
What We Are Watching Day 14
Daiamami vs Wakamotoharu – I have to wonder if Wakamotoharu (7-6) might end up in the top division for November. One of the big factors that has kept turnover from Makuuchi back down to Juryo low is the tendency to have a lack of demoteable or promotable records at the end of the basho. We may be heading to that again in July. Wakamotoharu has a 4-0 career advantage over Daiamami, who at 3-10 is unlikely to reverse that trend today.
Tochinoshin vs Ichiyamamoto – A first ever match, and I am sure Ichiyamamoto (7-6) knows enough to attack from his left against Tochinoshin’s (5-8) right. We saw that the former Ozeki can still muster a fractional sky-crane if he can get his hands set and his feet planted. So Ichiyamamoto will be wise to keep moving and not let Tochinoshin get that left hand outside grip.
Kaisei vs Tokushoryu – Kaisei (6-7) is in the heart of the funnel right now, and can only exit it by accepting make-koshi, or winning out. He has make-koshi Tokushoryu (5-8) today, whom he dominates with at 10-5 career record. They both will want to go chest to chest, so this will be a straight up mega-fauna yotsu battle. Yosh!
Tsurugisho vs Terutsuyoshi – Terutsuyoshi (8-5) has a solid chance to send Tsurugisho (7-6) to Darwin land today. Sure Tsurugisho has a 8-6 career advantage, but Terutsuyoshi has a 6 match winning streak, and is already kachi-koshi. He finally found his sumo in week 2, and he has been belting out the wins.
Chiyonokuni vs Shimanoumi – The winner of this match will be kachi-koshi, the loser will be eligible for a Darwin match tomorrow. I love it, this is brutal stuff and only one of them is going to make it to 8 today. They have a 1-1 career history, but to my eye, Chiyonokuni is fighting better this tournament. Both are 7-6.
Takarafuji vs Kotonowaka – Both Takarafuji (8-5) and Kotonowaka (10-3) will leave Nagoya with winning records, but it seems Kotonowaka is looking to run up the score. The Great Sumo Cat approves of this kind of behavior, and I would love to see if Takarafuji can employ the “frustration defense” against Kotonowaka today.
Ishiura vs Chiyoshoma – Oh lord, what a great match. Might we see the blazing double henka today? I think perhaps not. But Ishiura at 8-5 has less motivation than 7-6 Chiyoshoma. A win today and he gets a well deserved kachi-koshi. A loss, and it’s Darwin time for him.
Onosho vs Chiyonoo – Onosho (5-8) has a chance to toss Chiyonoo (7-6) bodily back into Darwin’s funnel, if he manages to summon his best sumo and attack with measured aggression. They have never faced off in the top division, but during their tenure in Juryo then went 4-4. Their last match was in 2016.
Okinoumi vs Kagayaki – The best that Kagayaki (6-7) can manage coming out of today would be a 7-7 score, and a trip to a Darwin match tomorrow. He has a 6-6 record against Okinoumi (5-8), and the things that catche my eye are the 5 straight losses Okinoumi has sustained since day 9’s loss to Terunofuji.
Kotoeko vs Chiyomaru – A make-koshi battle, with Kotoeko (2-11) looking to be in free fall territory in terms of rank. It’s a real shame, as I think that for starters, he a solid rikishi. But I also think due to the odd results coming from Natsu, he was over promoted on the back of his 9-6 record in May. Chiyomaru (5-8) is likewise make-koshi, so this match is really all about figuring out who gets the bigger demotion.
Hokutofuji vs Tamawashi – I am certain that this match is going to be fun. They are both kachi-koshi, so there is no real threat in any loss. Both are expert thrusters with a strong mobility aspect to their sumo. They have a 13 match history with a 1 match lead to Tamawashi (10-3). I am looking forward to see if Hokutofuji (8-5) can continue his good sumo that we have seen since opening day.
Myogiryu vs Tobizaru – Matching 3-10 records. The only good news about this match is that one of these dismal and roundly defeated rikishi gets to pick up their 4th win. But I worry that Tobizaru can find some way to foul that up.
Takanosho vs Hidenoumi – One of these guys gets make-koshi, the winner gets invited to play Darwin on Sunday. I kind of like Takanosho’s chances on this one.
Kiribayama vs Ichinojo – This pair have matching 8-5 records, and following lksumo’s write up, I am going to guess they are looking to see if Ichinojo can rack up enough wins to make a bid for an san’yaku rank in September. They have only had 1 prior match, which went to Ichinojo.
Aoiyama vs Daieisho – Another battle of the make-koshi duds. One of these guys may end up with a 5-10 record at the end of the basho. I do like that we saw some of the old fire from Daieisho (4-9) on day 13. Maybe he can rally again and dispatch Aoiyama (5-8) for good measure.
Wakatakakage vs Chiyotairyu – More candidates for double-digit losses. Rising star Wakatakakage (4-9) is going to take a few tournaments before he can get his sumo together enough to try the joi-jin again. I think he’s another rikishi who, thanks to the crazy results in May, ended up over promoted and is getting hammered. My only thought for Chiyotairyu (3-10) is that he’s got to be injured in some way, and that’s a shame given the improvement to his sumo from last tournament.
Ura vs Meisei – Someone decided to haul crowd favorite Ura (8-5) up the banzuke form M13 to face a Komusubi. In addition, this is their first ever match. Meisei (7-6) needs one more win to hit kachi-koshi. Should he fail to get his 8th today, it’s a Darwin match for him on Sunday.
Hoshoryu vs Mitakeumi – I am sensing a bit of a theme here, and I DO like it. We have san’yaku hopeful Hoshoryu (9-4), needing a few more wins to raise the chances up against Mitakeumi (7-6) for the first time. Mitakeumi is on the bubble as well, and needs a win today to escape a Darwin match on Sunday. Mitakeumi is in his traditional week 2 fade, having lost 4 of his last 5 matches, and generally showing us scruffy sumo.
Terunofuji vs Takayasu – Takayasu has a 12-8 career advantage over Terunofuji. Yes, most of that is from before 2018, and since returning to the top division, the score has been 4-1 in favor of Terunofuji. This matters only just a little bit, as Terunofuji seems to be operating at the highest levels of sumo right now, and I would guess that Takayasu is going to be Darwin fodder on day 15.
Hakuho vs Shodai – Shodai showed us on day 13 that he has not lost all of his cartoon sumo moves. He nearly got the upper hand against Terunofuji, causing the Yokozuna hopeful to shift into 3rd gear to dispatch the human daikon. His record of 2-9 against Hakuho portends a pasty, blubbery mess taken airborne for a 7th loss, and a Darwin match against Takayasu.
The yusho race won’t be decided until the Day 15 clash between the two top-ranked men on the banzuke, both undefeated going into the final weekend. Let’s look at what is at stake further down the banzuke.
Ozeki Shodai (7-6) needs one more win to avoid going kadoban, and unless he can upset Hakuho, he may have to get it against Takayasu on senshuraku.
Takayasu (7-4-2) similarly needs one more win to stay Sekiwake. He faces Terunofuji tomorrow and may also be in a must-win position on Day 15. On the bright side, he is guaranteed to fall no lower than Komusubi. Fellow Sekiwake Mitakeumi (7-6) needs one victory to hold rank, and has also already done enough to stay in san’yaku. Shin-Komusubi Meisei (7-6) is looking for a win to avoid an immediate return to the rank-and-file, while the other newcomer to the rank, Wakatakakage (3-9), has already failed to stave off demotion.
An interesting wrinkle here is that despite Wakatakakage‘s upcoming demotion, a san’yaku slot is not yet guaranteed to open. One or both Sekiwake could still finish with 7 wins, which would mean a drop to Komusubi. Suspended Asanoyama will be demoted from Ozeki to fill one Sekiwake slot, and if Meisei gets to 8 wins, that’s all four slots spoken for.
M2w Ichinojo (8-5) is the front-runner for the first open slot, but two consecutive losses, combined with victories by his pursuers, have greatly narrowed his lead. Promotion now seems most likely to go to whichever rikishi from among Ichinojo, M3e Hokutofuji (8-5), and M5w Hoshoryu (9-4) performs best on the final weekend. In the event that two losses by Meisei (plus wins by Mitakeumi and Takayasu) open up a second slot, other promotion candidates include M2e Takanosho (6-7), M6w Kiribayama (8-5), and even the double-digit duo M10e Tamawashi and M11w Kotonowaka, both 10-3.
At the other end of the scale, M14e Daiamami (3-10) now has a demotable record, and it will take two wins and a lot of banzuke luck to keep him in the top division. M15w Tokushoryu (5-8) needs to win out to lock down a place in Makuuchi. M13e Chiyomaru (5-8) and M17e Ichiyamamoto (7-6) are each looking for a victory to reach safety, while everyone else should be back in September.
Down in Juryo, J1e Yutakayama (10-3) is assured of promotion, while Juryo co-leader J6w Mitoryu (10-3) is one win away. J2e Kyokutaisei (7-6), J2w Akua (7-6) and J3 Wakamotoharu (7-6) must win out and hope for losses by the endangered incumbents.
A sad update: Kyokutaisei is kyujo after what looked like a bad landing in his loss to Tokushoryu, ending (at least for the moment) his quest to return to Makuuchi, after his two previous appearances there were both derailed by injury.
At the bottom of Juryo, injured Akiseyama and suspended Ryuden will be falling to Makushita along with J13w Kotokuzan (2-11). J12e Daishoho (5-8) is the other most-endangered sekitori, and probably needs to win out to keep his salary. Also not out of danger are J10w Kyokushuho (5-8) and J9w Midorifuji (4-9).
The race for promotion from the third division to the second will be fierce, with as many as 6 contenders for between 2 and 5 slots, and will feature a number of exchange bouts between those hoping to earn a salary and those hoping to keep theirs. One thing is for certain though: Hakuho’s protege Ms2w Hokuseiho (7-0) will be making his much-awaited sekitori debut after only six professional tournaments (not counting the one he sat out with the rest of his stable due to the virus). Hokuseiho’s record in the lower divisions stands at 39-3, with the full set of 7-0 yusho in Jonokuchi, Jonidan, Sandanme, and Makushita. Oh, did I mention he’s only 19?
