Following up on Josh’s commentary about the SNS ban, I wanted to bolster the idea with a few tweets from Tokiwayama-beya (formerly Chiganoura) about their two new recruits. Social media is a great way to introduce fans to the wrestlers, particularly when they’re just starting out or in the lower divisions. But these official accounts will rarely feature the unpopular wrestlers and certainly will not allow us a glimpse into their personalities and the lifestyles of the stable. Their own personal accounts would.

Takashoki

First up is fifteen year old Takashoki, born Fujiwara Ikuto, who is graduating from Middle School in Toyota, Aichi prefecture. He likes tonkotsu ramen and is a pretty tall middle schooler. Your humble correspondent broke the 5-foot barrier his freshman year but young Takashoki is already 6 foot 2 and will have a distinct size advantage on Hattori… excuse me… Shonanzakura in May.

昨日無事新弟子検査に二人が合格致しました！

隆翔生 薫一 たかしょうき よしかつ
平成１７年１２月９日生まれ１５歳
愛知県豊田市出身
本名 藤原 生翔 ふじわら いくと
身長 １８８㎝ 体重 １２７kg
好きな食べ物 とんこつらーめん
応援よろしくお願いします！ pic.twitter.com/QpmBBd1KNJ

— 常盤山部屋 (@tokiwayamabeya) February 27, 2021

Surely that’s a typo? He’s 6’2″? Wow…

Yes, that Toyota is headquartered in Takashoki’s home town. Nagoya is also in Aichi prefecture so he will be going home for tournaments in July. Aside from the ninja-infested castle next door to the stadium, there’s an amazing museum there which I highly recommend for visitors to Nagoya, called the Toyota Commemorative Museum of Industry and Technology.

It guides visitors through Toyota’s past as it produced textiles and textile equipment (under the founder, Sakichi) and then added automobiles (under his son, Kiichi). The econ geek in me is eager to go back. There’s also great entertainment and games for young kids. My son didn’t quite figure out that he could change gears. Oh well.

Takatairiku

Next up we have Takatairiku. His name is Ito Riku, a fan of salmon sushi from neighboring Gifu prefecture. (Seriously, who doesn’t like salmon sushi? Mmmmm….) His hometown is Mizunami, a rural area with many luxurious-looking onsen and golf courses. Why on Earth is he leaving?

I do not (yet) have pictures of Gifu. However, I will — hopefully soon.

常盤山部屋に弟が二人ふえました。

隆太陸 真道 たかたいりく まさみち
平成１７年７月１日生まれ１５歳
岐阜県瑞浪市出身
本名 伊藤 太陸 いとう りく
身長１６５㎝ 体重 ９６kg
好きな食べ物 お寿司 サーモン
応援よろしくお願いします！ pic.twitter.com/YLxnXX7zMO

— 常盤山部屋 (@tokiwayamabeya) February 27, 2021

He just met the minimum height requirement for 15 year olds but as he’s so young, he’ll grow with his sumo. I’m eager to see both Takatairiku and Takashoki on the dohyo in May! As I’ve mentioned, I’m pretty bummed that these guys will miss out on the opportunity to wear kesho mawashi and participate in maezumo. I hope that changes in May.

The new rankings will be announced and mailed to supporters on March 1. In advance of this much-awaited event, let’s take a look at how they are likely to shake out.

The named ranks

These should be very straightforward. The absent Yokozuna will keep their positions, with Hakuho on the East side and Kakuryu on the West. As a consequence of his dismal 2-8-5 performance, Takakeisho will fall to East Ozeki 2, behind East Ozeki Shodai and West Ozeki Asanoyama, who will stay in their current order after identical 11-4 performances.

Just like in September, we will have 3 Sekiwake, and also like in September, the extra rank will go to Daieisho after his yusho-winning 13-2 performance from M1. He should be ranked behind the successful incumbents, East Sekiwake Terunofuji (11-4) and West Sekiwake Takanosho (9-6), with the slight wrinkle that his rank will be West Sekiwake 2 to balance out the solitary East Ozeki 2 rank on the banzuke.

Finally, East Komusubi Takayasu and West Komusubi Mitakeumi both went 9-6 and will stay at their ranks. Since the number of wrestlers in the top division is fixed at 42, 10 san’yaku ranks leaves room for only 32 maegashira, meaning that we won’t see an M17 rank for the first time since November 2019.

The rank-and-file

Scroll down if you just want to see the projected banzuke. I’ve written about my process for arriving at the predicted rankings before, so I won’t belabor it here, but I will make a few notes on this particular set of predictions.

• I left the five maegashira absent due to COVID outbreaks in their heya at their current ranks, as this did not seem unfair to any of the participating rikishi and in several instances helped avoid even bigger under-demotions or over-promotions.
• I’d be surprised to see any major departures from the official banzuke for the M1e-M7e ranks (Takarafuji through Kotonowaka), where the only decision I wrestled with was how to order Shimanoumi and Kiribayama.
• The trickiest area of the banzuke for me was M7w-M10e, especially the M7w rank. Placing the next available kachi-koshi rikishi here, M14e Hoshoryu, which is what I ended up doing, represents an extremely generous promotion of 6.5 ranks for someone with a 9-6 record. On the other hand, giving the slot to the best-positioned make-koshi rikishi, M6w Kagayaki, would mean only a one-rank demotion for a 6-9 record. Kagayaki has received some very lenient treatment recently, but this seemed like a step too far, so I placed him at M8e, splitting Hoshoryu and M14w Midorifuji (also 9-6). With Chiyonokuni locked in place at M9e, I have M4e Tochinoshin (4-11) at M9w, just ahead of M7w Tobizaru (6-9), but flipping these two wouldn’t surprise me, nor would any number of more extensive rearrangements among these rikishi.
• One rikishi is unquestionably going down to Juryo: M17e Sadanoumi (5-10). Highly likely to join him is M13e Akua (5-10). The Juryo promotion picture is complicated by a whopping 7 COVID-related absences in the top 10 ranks, but three rikishi made credible cases for promotion: the yusho winner J8e Tsurugisho (12-3), Tobizaru’s big brother J6w Hidenoumi (11-4), who is looking to return to the top division for the first time in three years, and the highest-ranked man competing, J1w Daiamami (8-7). I project that all three will be in Makuuchi in March, which means that I needed to find another demotion candidate, and I’ve gone with last January’s unlikely champion, M8e Tokushoryu (3-12). He could survive, but I’d hate to guess at whose expense. The only other remotely plausible promotion candidate is J8w Daishomaru (11-4), but he is clearly behind the other 3, and I don’t think his case is strong enough to push down M15e Yutakayama (7-8).

With all that out of the way, here’s the projection. Let me know what you think in the comments.

Once again, I need to give a huge “Thank you” to Herouth for the kensho data she has been sharing on Twitter. I have published a few visualizations that I hope you will enjoy. In November, with three Ozeki competing for almost the entire tournament, there were more envelopes up for grabs (a 20% bump). There were also fewer opportunities lost due to kyujo, since Takakeisho’s kyujo was the only one during the tournament. Almost all makuuchi bouts had kensho on senshuraku and there was a 33% payout increase over November’s final day…though the thrilling Takakeisho/Terunofuji playoff was certainly more exciting.

To prevent the visualization from loading for EVERYONE who visits, click through to read more and to see the visualization or click this link to go directly to the visualization. I apologize for the scrunched view, so I would advise scrolling to the bottom-right side of the visualization and clicking on the “Full Screen” icon.

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Sadly, the worrying news reel goes on. The sumo association released a statement that an unnamed rikishi has tested Covid positive. Fortunately, the wrestler does not have symptoms. We wish him a smooth recovery.

The rikishi belongs to the lower ranks. Few details have been released: he was last at the stable four days prior, and his stable mates are not considered close contacts.