The yusho race

The race for the Emperor’s Cup is going down to the wire! The sole leader, once-and-future Ozeki Terunofuji (11-3), can claim the title outright with a victory over Ozeki Takakeisho (10-4). Should the latter prevail, the pair will head into their second playoff in three tournaments, only this time joined by the winner of the bout between Komusubi Takayasu and under-the-radar contender M12 Aoiyama, both 10-4. Takayasu, loser of 3 of his last 4 bouts, has gone from leading the yusho race by 2 wins after Day 10 to trailing by a win after Day 14, while Aoiyama is riding a 6-day winning streak. Oh, and the lifetime series between the two is tied at 11 wins apiece!

The Ozeki

Terunofuji, with 13, 11, and either 11 or 12 wins in his past three tournaments, should now be an absolute lock to regain the second-highest rank in sumo. Shodai (7-7) must defeat fellow Ozeki Asanoyama (9-5) in the musubi-no-ichiban to avoid kadoban status in May.

The san’yaku ranks

East Sekiwake Terunofuji will free up his slot via promotion. Takayasu is guaranteed a Sekiwake rank, and may take Terunofuji’s spot on the next banzuke. West Sekiwake Takanosho (7-7) needs to win his “Darwin bout” against M7 Tochinoshin (7-7) to hang on to his rank, but he would only drop to Komusubi with a loss. That’s two san’yaku slots spoken for. The other two will go to the incumbent Komusubi, Mitakeumi and Daieisho, both 7-7, if they can prevail over M6 Ichinojo (7-7) and M12 Akiseyama (7-7), respectively, in their own “Darwin bouts.” Should one or both falter, any open slots will be fought over by the three upper maegashira with 9-5 records: M2e Hokutofuji, M2w Wakatakakage, and M3e Meisei. The M2’s are matched up in a first-ever meeting, and the winner of that bout will lead the promotion queue. Meisei can leapfrog the loser by winning what seems like an easy bout against M14 Tsurugisho (9-5), but suprisingly, the latter leads their head-to-head 6-1.

Makuuchi-Juryo exchanges

One extra slot in the top division is opened up by Kakuryu’s retirement. Two others will be vacated by Kotoshoho and Yutakayama. Conveniently, the three openings have now been claimed by J2e Ishiura (9-5), J3e Chiyomaru (9-5), and J1w Akua (8-6). The only other endangered incumbent in M10e Midorifuji (4-10), who will be safe if he can best the much-higher-ranked M5 Okinoumi (3-11). If Midorifuji loses, he should still be safe unless J4e Enho (8-6) wins; in that scenario, it’s not clear which of the pair would get the final spot.

Juryo-Makushita exchanges

There are two near-certain demotions from Juryo: Yago and newcomer Bushozan. Still looking for victories on the final day are Chiyonoumi, Nishikifuji, and Nishikigi. So that’s a least three openings in the salaried ranks, and possibly as many as six. Remember that fully half of the 10 rikishi in the Ms1-Ms5 promotion zone are absent due to virus precautions, so things are looking good for those competing and kachi-koshi. Ms2e Oho (4-3) should bounce right back up to sekitori, and he’ll be joined by Ms2w Daishoho (5-1) and Ms3e Kotokuzan (4-2). Ms4e Tochimaru (4-3) will be hoping for losses among the endangered Juryo incumbents, and should more than one of them stumble, slots may even open for men not normally in line for promotion: Ms6e Roga (4-3) and either Ms6w Murata (4-3) or Ms7w Kaisho (5-2).

The yusho race

We have two leaders with 10-3 records, followed by no fewer than five chasers at 9-4, and 6 additional rikishi who are still mathematically alive at 8-5 (although one of them, Chiyonokuni, has pulled out with injuries). The two leaders, Terunofuji and Takayasu, have already met, and the other matchups are such that a 10-win yusho is still technically possible, although this has never happened in the top division (it is, however, not uncommon in Juryo). Even an 11-4 winning score is rare, having happened only 3 times in the 6-basho era, most recently during Harumafuji’s famous comeback at Aki 2017. Should the leaders blink, two Ozeki, Asanoyama and Takakeisho, who hold matching 9-4 records, could be right back in the race, as could the winner of Aoiyama vs. Wakatakakage, as well as lowly M15w Hidenoumi. Senshuraku chaos, anyone?

The Ozeki

We should have four Ozeki in May. Whether or not one of them will be kadoban depends on whether Shodai (7-6) can best at least one of the other two other incumbents, who still nurse championship hopes, on the final weekend.

The san’yaku ranks

Currently, we have 5 rikishi occupying 2 Sekiwake and 3 Komusubi slots. One of them, East Sekiwake Terunofuji, is all but certain to move up to Ozeki, freeing up a promotion for the only other member of the quintet to clinch a winning record: his co-leader in the yusho race, East Komusubi Takayasu. West Sekiwake Takanosho (6-7) needs to win his final two bouts, including the potential yusho decider against Takayasu on Sunday, to hang on to his rank. One win would limit his demotion to Komusubi, while two losses would end his three-basho run in the named ranks. Of the other two Komusubi, Mitakeumi (6-7) must win out to remain in san’yaku for a 6th tournament, while Daieisho (7-6) only needs one win to hold rank.

So we could have as many as 3 open slots, which would take two losses by both Takanosho and Daieisho and one by Mitakuemi, and as few as none. Three maegashira have clearly separated themselves from the rest in the race for any openings: M2w Wakatakakage (9-4), M2e Hokutofuji (8-5) and M3e Meisei (8-5).

Makuuchi-Juryo exchanges

One extra slot in the top division is opened up by Kakuryu’s retirement. Two others will be vacated by Kotoshoho and Yutakayama. The M16 duo of Kaisei and Daiamami sport matching 7-6 records, and could really use another win apiece to ensure a stay in Makuuchi. The only other endangered incumbent in M10e Midorifuji, whose mere 4 wins place him at risk even at his mid-maegashira rank.

His Roundness, J3e Chiyomaru (9-4), should be assured of a return to the top division. J2e Ishiura (8-5) may also have already done enough, and another win will make promotion a certainty. Likewise, J1w Akua (7-6) should return if he can reach 8 wins in either of his remaining bouts. J4e Enho (8-5) has lost 5 of 7 after starting 6-0, and needs another victory to have a shot at promotion, and two to clinch it. One of the four could still miss out if Kaisei, Daiamami, and Midorifuji all save themselves.

After the release of the banzuke for the upcoming Haru 2021 basho, a great deal of attention has been paid (with good reason) to the goings-on atop the makuuchi division. But, that shouldn’t preclude you, dear reader, from gaining further knowledge of the lower depths of the banzuke. Come with me, as I guide you through the picturesque landscape of the juryo division.

 

The first thing you might notice is that Hatsu 2020 champion Tokushoryu finds himself back in juryo, only 14 months removed from his first top flight championship. A rather inauspicious accolade for the veteran, but I can’t say I’m surprised by his demotion. He’s only managed one winning record since lifting the Emperor’s Cup. However, if the 34-year-old from Kise-beya can score eight victories from J1E this month, the Kinki University alum will certainly find himself back up top come May.

 

The remainder of the top of juryo consists of several makuuchi mainstays who missed time due to COVID-19 as well as recent demotees: including Akua, Ishiura, Chiyomaru, Enho, and Sadanoumi. These five, along with Tokushoryu, will be itching to get back into the top division and perhaps claim a juryo yusho along the way.

 

All eyes will be on Ura as well, hanging out at J7E for this month’s tournament. The only person more excited to see Ura’s return to the top division than sumo fans is Ura himself. He put together a solid 10-5 outing in January, and has not had a make koshi since returning from injury in November of 2019. Our esteemed friend in the pink mawashi is doing good work on the comeback trail.

 

Speaking of comebacks, the Jokoryu Revenge Tour hit a snag last time out when the Joker posted a feeble  5-10 record, including seven straight losses to take him out of the yusho race for good after a not-entirely-horrific 5-3 start. Let’s all pray that Jokoryu is able to find the form that brought him to a komusubi debut back in 2014.

 

You’ll also notice that the widely discussed Oho juryo debut did not go particularly well. The 21 year old prospect has fallen out of the salaried ranks after going 5-10 and once again will have to spend a tournament in makushita. Fingers crossed we see him back up in juryo soon, and making his makuuchi debut shortly thereafter.

 

Finally, there are two juryo debutants this month. Both 25 years old, Takakento and Bushozan come into this basho without much fanfare. They have both Goeido’d their way to juryo, with each rikishi slapping together strings of 4 and 5 win scores to slowly but surely climb their way up. However, it is always nice to see new guys, and who knows? Maybe they can make some noise from the bottom of the division.

 

Got any thoughts on the outlook for March’s juryo field? Have we seen the last of Shohozan? Is Ichiyamamoto the best shikona in the division? Who do you miss having in juryo more — Ikioi or Kotoyuki? Let me know. I’m dying to hear from you.

The March rankings have been released. Let’s take a look at how they compare to the forecast I posted a week ago.

The upper ranks are exactly as predicted, with one glaring exception. That, of course, is the yusho winner M1w Daieisho (13-2) being ranked K2w instead of S2w as everyone expected. It’s difficult to know how to explain the snub. No yusho winner ranked M4 or higher had ever failed to make Sekiwake, nor had any M1 with a record of 13-2 or better. Since no one has ever been promoted to Ozeki from a rank below Sekiwake, is this perhaps an unnecessarily harsh reminder that the NSK does not consider Daieisho to be on an Ozeki run?

My prediction had the upper maegashira ranks (M1-M6) exactly right. However, I had reason to worry about the mid-maegashira ranks. While I expected the trouble area to extend from M7w to M10e, it in fact covered M7e to M11w, where the only prediction I got right was the absent Chiyonokuni and Chiyotairyu maintaining their positions at M9e and M11e, respectively. Among other oddities, this part of the banzuke is characterized by historically lenient demotions: only 3 ranks for Tochinoshin after a 4-11 record, and only one rank for Kagayaki and Tobizaru after their 6-9 performances.

From there, my forecast got back on track, getting all the ranks from M12 to M16 right and only placing Hidenoumi and Yutakayama on the wrong sides at M15. In particular, Tokushoryu will indeed join Sadanoumi and Akua down in Juryo, with Hidenoumi, Tsurugisho, and Daiamami taking their places in the top division.

Despite getting the middle of the banzuke completely wrong, your humble prognosticator now holds the top rank in GTB, based on a weighted average of the last 6 predictions.