Aki Basho 2021

Things We Learned That Don’t Really Mean Much

Josh K Aki Basho 2021, Asanoyama (朝乃山), Myogiryu (妙義龍), Shōdai (正代直也), Ōzeki (大関) , , , , , ,
Veterans at the ready. Photo credit @nicolaah

In some ways, Wacky Aki lived up to its name. Not because it was a see-saw title race until the end or because there was some kind of crazy left-field title challenger. Indeed, all of the “dark horses” were more or less known entities, or people that could have been expected to run up a double digit score from their respective ranks.

Maybe you’ll say Myogiryu or Onosho aren’t expected to contend, but they’re not Kotoeko or Tsurugisho, or, dare I say it, Tokushoryu. None of the contenders were strangers to the musubi-no-ichiban. There were a few other talking points from the basho though that might fly under the radar, so I’ve assembled some of them here:

Shodai’s kachikoshi

This may not seem like much, but while the Ozeki was maddeningly inconsistent and underwhelming, this kachikoshi means that Shodai will officially have a longer tenure as Ozeki than either recent Ozeki Tochinoshin or Asanoyama.

Tochinoshin is of course in the decline phase of his career and won’t be returning to the rank, and Asanoyama can make it back to Ozeki in 2024 at the earliest following his suspension and fall down the banzuke. While Terunofuji has taught us not to rule anything out, that ain’t likely (even if it does happen, it will likely take more time).

So, Shodai will soldier on. Among other “recent” (last 25 years or so) Ozeki, he can topple Miyabiyama with another kachikoshi in the next tournament, and if he can hang around for another year at the level he can attempt to surpass the likes of Takayasu and Baruto. This is where it’s worth reminding you: we’re talking about Shodai here. He’s always had the talent, but his top division career – including his Ozeki stint – (apart from that magical 12 month run from November 2019 to November 2020, before which he was a .500 rank and filer) could be best described as mediocre.

Takasago beya

Feast or famine for the beleaguered heya. With the former stable master now gone and Asanoyama in the midst of a suspension that eventually will punt the former Ozeki down to Sandanme, there was yet more bad news in the form of shin-Juryo Asashiyu (moto-Murata)’s debut which went all wrong in the form of a 1-14 record. At least it wasn’t as bad as Shikoroyama’s Oki, in his recent Juryo bow. But it continues a worrying trend for in this particular stable, after Asagyokusei similarly not being able to manage a kachi-koshi in the penultimate division in three attempts, and veteran Asabenkei’s last four attempts at the division all ending in double digit losses. At least if you’re a tsukebito, your servitude may not last particularly long.

We shouldn’t feel too bad though. Asashiyu-Murata’s debut itself was something of a feat. Having reached the edge of heaven at Makushita 1, injuries knocked him all the way back down to Jonokuchi where he was forced to restart his career. Now 27, he’ll need to regroup if he’s going to shift through the gears once more, but you suspect having a top heyagashira with something to actually fight for (as opposed to a suspended heyagashira still miles away from his return) might be helpful for the whole stable.

The stable might have a new heyagashira before long though, and it could be one of Asanoyama’s old tsukebito. The rikishi formerly known as Terasawa will make his sekitori debut in the next basho, and as Takasago beya normally gives its rikishi their morning shikona following Juryo promotion, I’m disappointed he hasn’t got Asanousagi. Having instead curiously taken the name Asanowaka, Terasawa was one of two success stories for Takasago in makushita last tournament. You might remember him as the guy who had his practise mawashi stolen with the remains of his dead rabbit inside.

Finally, that second success story would have been the makushita yusho of Fukai, the former Sandanme Tsukedashi debutant who’s made solid if unsteady progress over the past year and a half. Fukai’s yusho sensationally denied the much vaunted Kitanowaka of an automatic promotion (and it was a nice looking win at that, with one of those very satisfying endings that see everyone crash down the side of the dohyo), and the two will hopefully duke it out again next basho from the makushita joi, where they will both be ranked, presumably with promotion on the line.

Oldies Keep Swinging

While recent generations had their one-offs who performed well into their late 30’s (Terao, Kaio, Kyokutenho), one could be forgiven for thinking that the time would come when the current crop of vets would start to get pumped.

Eight participants in the top division are aged 34 or over (including last week’s birthday man Tochinoshin – happy birthday!). Those eight rikishi combined for a record of 59-61.

For sure, this number is propped up by Myogiryu’s championship challenge, but the only really poor result was Tokushoryu’s 4-11 which isn’t all that unexpected from anyone who’s spent part of the year in Juryo.

That almost-.500 record for the vets is reflective of the current mediocre top division quality and it means their decline – which is certainly evident relative to their younger selves in terms of the eye test – has more of a flatline.

As Andy teases a new “birthday” feature for the site, it will be curious to watch the average age of the top division continue to get ever older. You’d think that subtracting a 36 year old retiring yokozuna might help this, but while Hakuho will remain on the November banzuke if not the dohyo, the top division will likely be joined by a trio of 30+ veterans in Akua (30), Sadanoumi (34), Shohozan (37!!), and the 27 year old Abi.

The youth movement that had threatened to wash away the detritus has so far failed to really materialise. Credit must go to Hoshoryu and Kotonowaka for consolidating their positions in the top division for now, but Kotoshoho and Oho haven’t been able to break through or stay through doing to injury or ability respectively, and Onoe-beya’s once heavily hyped 23-year old Ryuko has just sadly announced his intai after a couple of injury plagued Juryo appearances.

The Kyushu basho will, at least, provide some looks in Juryo for Kotoshoho, Hokuseiho and Hiradoumi to hopefully show that there are youngsters who have got what it takes to keep moving up into the top division and establish themselves.

And this may actually be the more telling thing. We know that the age at which a rikishi can break into and stick in the top division is often an indicator of their ultimate final destination in the sport. That inability recently of many to skip through Juryo also owes much to an aged veteran presence in that division. The Mongolian duo of 33 year old Kyokushuho and 34 year old Azumaryu continue to rack up enough wins to hang around the place, and will be joined by Tokushoryu next tournament as he replaces the tricenarian trio who look likely to head up.

Or, it may not be that telling. These are, after all, things that don’t really mean much.

Aki 2021 Kensho Roundup

Andy Aki Basho 2021, kensho kin

Once again, thank you, Herouth for providing the data on Kensho for the basho. It provides a very interesting metric which may be a bit of a proxy for commercial (possibly public) interest in particular wrestlers or even the sport as a whole, though these Covid times are not exactly comparable to “The Before Times.” That’s admittedly a rather massive caveat and hopefully normal times resume soon.

As Herouth mentioned prior to the tournament, pledges this basho were way up compared to July. In fact, they were higher than any tournament over the past year, surpassing the tally at Hatsu by 8%. The increased interest was not only for the musubi-no-ichiban, either, as more of the earlier bouts had pledges (233). The amount of envelopes pledged on those bouts was 8.25% higher than in July.

Notably, interest in the new Yokozuna led to a substantial increase in pledges made on the final bout of the day. While the musubi-no-ichiban attracted 192 banners in Nagoya, it more than doubled that tally back in Tokyo (385). Interestingly, that’s not quite as much as the amount pledged last Aki in the drama-filled showdown won by Shodai (415). In that tournament, the musubi cycled through the three Ozeki as they each took turns fighting the final (often the most lucrative) bout of the day.

Terunofuji crushed the field by taking home more than triple the kensho when compared to his closest competitor, Mitakeumi. That fat stack on senshuraku helped but it was really a story of 13 of 15 paydays. Takakeisho, on the other hand, let the most pledges slip through his fingers, followed by Shodai.

Myogiryu, the dark horse of the basho, did quite well, too. His win over Takakeisho provided him with an even fatter stack of kensho than when he beat Terunofuji in May. He also beat Shodai and scored a nice haul there, as well. That’s quite a different story than in November and March when he lost all of those big payday bouts against Ozeki.

I’ve updated the kensho-kin visualization and put it after the “read more” link to keep it from loading every time anyone visits the site. I know you love my data viz but if you’re trying to read more about Hakuho, you probably don’t want this thing rendering every time.

Continue reading →

Looking Toward the November Banzuke

lksumo Aki Basho 2021

All the hardware has been handed out, but that’s really secondary—the primary purpose of a honbasho is to set the banzuke for the following tournament. How will the Aki results reshuffle the rankings?

Yokozuna and Ozeki

The only change I expect here is a move by the Aki champion, shin-Yokozuna Terunofuji, over to the East side. I am assuming that the rank protection that has generally been given to those forced to sit out due to pandemic precautions will not extend to Hakuho keeping the Y1e rank. Our Ozeki duo did not exactly distinguish themselves, doing just enough to avoid kadoban or demotion, and their matching 8-7 scores mean that we will once again have Shodai on the East side and Takakeisho on the West.

Hakuho Retirement Update

Assuming the GOAT’s intai is made official before Wednesday’s banzuke meeting, a few things below will change. The rare M18e rank will make only its second appearance since the 1950s (Kotonowaka held it in March 2020), and will be occupied by Tsurugisho, who would get a lucky reprieve, as I don’t see J3 Wakamotoharu (8-7) pushing him down. Jokoryu will definitely be in Juryo, and either Kyukushuho will be too or his slot will go to Ms4 Kotoyusho (4-3) for his first sekitori appearance.

Sekiwake and Komusubi

Little change here too. East Sekiwake Mitakeumi (9-6) and West Sekiwake Meisei (8-7) will stay where they are. West Sekiwake Ichinojo (8-7) will move over to the East side, into the slot being vacated by Takayasu (4-8-3). M2w Kiribayama (9-6) and M4w Daieisho (10-5) finished in a virtual tie in the race for the one open Komusubi slot, and I assume that the former will make his san’yaku debut by virtue of his higher rank, unless the banzuke committee opts to weigh Daieisho’s previous san’yaku experience more heavily.

Upper Maegashira

At Aki, rank-and-filers down to M4w faced the Yokozuna and a full san’yaku slate of opponents. I expect these ranks at Kyushu to be occupied by Daieisho (or Kiribayama), Wakatakakage, Onosho, Takanosho, Okinoumi, Myogiryu, Takarafuji, and Endo. Other than Takanosho, who just missed out on a winning record with a 7-8 score, this group all had winning records and contains all the outstanding maegashira performances at Aki. This should translate into exciting bouts near the top of the torikumi in November.

Juryo-Makuuchi Exchanges

We had three clear demotions going into Day 15—Tokushoryu, Chiyonoo, and Ichiyamamoto—and two men on the bubble—Kaisei and Tsurugisho. We also had three clear promotions—Juryo champion Abi, who matched Terunofuji’s 13-2 score, Akua, and Sadanoumi—as well as two other possible candidates for promotion—Shohozan and Daiamami. And of course the schedulers paired up the bubble rikishi across the divisions in what were arguably the real “Darwin bouts.” M14e Kaisei (6-9) prevailed in his matchup against J2 Daiamami (7-8), saving his spot in the top division and eliminating the Juryo man. M13w Tsurugisho (5-10) fought like his life depended on it, but could not overcome J4 Shohozan (10-5), so we should see the veteran brawler and oldest sekitori make an unexpected late-career return to Makuuchi after a full year toiling in the second division.

Makushita-Juryo Exchanges

Dropping out of the salaried ranks are the two M13s, Takakento and Asashiyu. Making their sekitori debuts are Ms1 Terasawa and Ms2 Hiradoumi, both 5-2. Returning to Juryo (thanks to the slot vacated by Takagenji, who is mentioned here for the last time) is Ms2 Kotokuzan (4-3). The only question mark is whether his head-to-head victory yesterday will be enough for Ms4 Jokoryu (4-3) to trade places with J12 Kyokushuho (6-9). We’ll find out on Wednesday, when promotions to sekitori are announced.

Kyushu Banzuke Questions

  • Just how high up will Abi be ranked? His sterling performance at Aki and his career-high rank of Komusubi weigh in his favor, while a general Makuuchi bias and perhaps the lingering shadow of his suspension could count against him. Anything from M10 to M15 seems possible.
  • Conversely, how far will suspended Asanoyama drop? His Sekiwake rank would normally cushion the fall, but the circumstances of his demotion may more than balance that out. I see him ending up in the M13-M15 range; will he be ranked above or below Abi?
  • In a similar vein, how much leniency will be shown to the injured upper-rankers Takayasu (4 wins, 2 of them by fusen), M3 Kotonowaka (3 wins), and M2 Hokutofuji (2 wins)?
  • How many of the whopping 8 rikishi who finished with a minimal 7-8 make-koshi will get to keep their ranks?
  • Will Hakuho’s stablemates—M12e Ishiura, J11e Enho, and J12w Hokuseiho—have their ranks frozen?

Do you have other questions? Let me know in the comments, and thanks for following Tachiai’s coverage of the Aki basho!

Aki Day 15 Highlights

Bruce H Aki Basho 2021, Aoiyama, Chiyomaru, Chiyonokuni (千代の国), Chiyonoo (千代ノ皇), Chiyoshoma, Chiyotairyū (千代大龍), Daieisho (大栄翔), Endo (遠藤), Hidenoumi, Hokutōfuji (北勝富士), Hoshoryu, Ichinojo (逸ノ城), Ichiyamamoto (一山本), Kagayaki (輝), Kaisei (魁聖), Kiribayama (霧馬山), Kotoeko, Kotonowaka, Meisei, Mitakeumi(御嶽海), Myogiryu (妙義龍), Okinoumi (隠岐の海), Shimanoumi, Shōdai (正代直也), Takakeishō (貴景勝), Takanosho, Takarafuji (宝富士), Takayasu (高安), Tamawashi (玉鷲), Terunofuji (照ノ富士), Terutsuyoshi, Tobizaru, Tochinoshin (栃ノ心), Tokushoryu, Tsurugisho, Ura (宇良), Wakatakakage, Yutakayama, Ōnoshō (阿武咲)

Thus ends the 2021 Aki basho, what a tournament! We hope that you have enjoyed the last 15 days as much as Team Tachiai has. Solid sumo, and some truly amazing scores. I can’t even begin to imagine just how much churn there will be on the banzuke for November.

Congratulations to Yokozuna Terunofuji, who wins his debut tournament as a Yokozuna, an elite group that have been able to do that, the last one being Kisenosato, who did so at a hideous cost. We hope that Terunofuji serves long and happily, and that his knees are able to give him a few more years on the dohyo.

No fewer than six rikishi finished with double digit wins, none of which were in the lower third of the banzuke, which is a smoking radioactive crater of double digit losses. Ten men went home with double digit losses, including 3 men with 11 losses from the bottom margin of the banzuke. That sad fog horn you hear in the distance? It’s the Juryo barge of the damned, captained by Tokushoryu, setting sail down the Sumida.s

Highlight Matches

Kaisei defeats Daiamami – This was a good match for Kaisei, he did not have to compensate for a lot of lateral movement, as Daiamami is also very much an East-West kind of fighter. He was able to dig in and take his time, working to get enough leverage, and quality hand placement, to overcome Daiamami’s defenses and walk him out. Kaisei finishes Aki at 6-9.

Shohozan defeats Tsurugisho – I think the late called matta was the right move, it was clear that the two were not really ready to fight when Shohozan launched. I am surprised that the gyoji did not pick up on that. The second round was about the same as the first. I like the amount of effort Tsurugisho put into trying anything is body could support to stave off the loss. Shohozan could not find a way to push or force Tsurugisho out, and gave into the temptation to toss him to the clay. Shohozan finishes with double digits wins, 10-5, in Juryo, and maybe he will make a triumphant return to the top division in November.

Yutakayama defeats Chiyotairyu – Darwin match time! As expected, both of them had he sumo dialed up to 11 today. It was a mad thrusting battle, with Chiyotairyu moving his arms side to side, but Yutakayama focusing center-mass. No need to guess which one was more effective. Chiyotairyu realized this too, and moved to go chest to chest with a right hand inside. Yutakayama responded in kind, but pivoted into a throw that put Chiyotairyu down. Make-koshi for Chiyotairyu, kachi-koshi for Yutakayama

Kotoeko defeats Aoiyama – The second Darwin match, Kotoeko took a lot of punishmen from Aoiyama applied directly to his face. Kotoeko, to his credit, absorbed the pounding and focused center-mass. It was slow to take effect, but once Aoiyama took that first step back, it was all Kotoeko. I am so very pleased that Kotoeko was able to reverse his losing streak, rally and finish September with a winning record. Aoiyama finishes make-koshi at 7-8.

Tobizaru defeats Chiyonoo – Not sure where Chiyonoo was today, but it was Tobizaru time after a matta stopped the action on the first launch. Tobizaru finishes 7-8, Chiyonoo at 4-11, and needs to go pack his bags for the Juryo barge.

Endo defeats Okinoumi – It came down to who could get superior hand placement first, and it was Endo. He always puts a lot his fortunes into that frontal grab at the tachiai, and today he was able to convert it against Okinoumi. I did like the pulling variant of the uwatenage he used today. Nice touch as there was no way he was going to get that going forward against Okinoumi. Endo finishes Aki 11-4, Okinoumi ends with a respectable 10-5.

Kagayaki defeats Terutsuyoshi – Terutsuyoshi looked like he was attempting to channel Ura, and it fell to bits in an inglorious fashion. Kagayaki was very much “What the hell” as it unfolded, but too his credit he stayed into his attack plan, and crushed Terutsuyoshi to the clay. Kagayaki improves to 7-8.

Ura defeats Ichiyamamoto – Given Ichiyamamoto’s condition, there was only ever one way this one was going to end. Ichiyamamoto put up a reasonable defense to start against Ura’s probing attacks. But once the man in pink settled on a plan, it was high power delivered to center mass, and Ichiyamamoto did not have the lower body power to stop him. Ura improves to 7-8, Ichiyamamoto takes his hurt lower body home with a dismal 4-11, and a first class cabin on the Juryo barge.

Takarafuji defeats Tochinoshin – Another Darwin match. Tochinoshin allowed Takarafuji to set his feet, and get his lower body in position. At that point, there were few options that the big Georgian had, short of a throw, to overcome Takarafuji. He worked to get his hands set up for such a move, but all the while Takarafuji was moving him back. Takarafuji kachi-koshi at 8-7, Tochinoshin make-koshi at 7-8.

Chiyoshoma defeats Tokushoryu – Holy crap, it’s not like Team Tachiai did not spell out that the henka was coming some 12 hours prior. We could see it all way way from the United States! Ah well, better luck in November, Tokushoryu. We will always have your charming yusho speech. Chiyoshoma improves to 5-10.

Tamawashi defeats Onosho – Onosho’s opening volley did not connect with enough power to put Tamawashi on defense, and Tamawashi responded with a rapid fire combo. Onosho never recovered and ends Aki with a loss, missing out on a chance at a special prize. Tamawashi improves to 6-9.

Wakatakakage defeats Chiyonokuni – Wakatakakage caught Chiyonokuni off balance moments after the tachiai, and a single blow on the upper back brought him down. Both end Aki with matching 9-6 scores. Great run for Wakatakakage, and I am looking forward to him near the top of the rank and file in November.

Kiribayama defeats Chiyomaru – The one fact to know here, Kiribayama lifted Chiyomaru out for the win. I think everyone, including Kiribayama, were a bit surprised. Check out the smile as he awaits the kensho for his win. Kiribayama improves to 9-6 to end Aki.

Shimanoumi defeats Takanosho – Final Darwin match, and it was great to see Shimanoumi finish out with a kachi-koshi on a 4 match winning run. He’s been struggling since his 11-4 last November, and we saw a bit of that old fire today. Shimanoumi finishes 8-7 and is kachi-koshi, Takanosho make-koshi at 7-8.

Hidenoumi defeats Hoshoryu – I guess I would say – where the hell did that come from, Hidenoumi? That was a high quality move against a pretty tough opponent, ranked 8 slots above you on the banzuke. The twist down was a thing of beauty, and I wish he would be able to use this kind of sumo every day. Hidenoumi improves to 7-8, while Hoshoryu drops to 5-10 as a final score for Aki.

Daieisho defeats Ichinojo – Daieisho caps a 10-5 score at Aki with outstanding performance special prize. He found center-mass on Ichinojo (its about the same size as the broad side of a barn), and unloaded full force into the big man’s chest. I counted 4 steps to send him over the bales, and score his concluding win.

Meisei defeats Myogiryu – The yusho decider, Meisei gets his 8th win and knocks Myogiryu out of contention for the cup with a lightning fast katasukashi. Meisei finishes Aki at 8-7, and Myogiryu will have to settle for an awesome 11-4 and the gino-sho special prize. Nice work sir!

Mitakeumi defeats Takakeisho – Takakeisho went for an immediate pull into Mitakeumi’s second step. A disastrous mistake and the Ozeki exited in a hurry. 8-7 is kind of a crummy score for an Ozeki, but given that I think Takakeisho is still hurt, I don’t fault him for not putting up too tough of a fight. Survive and improve for November. Mitakeumi finishes with 9-6.

Terunofuji defeats Shodai – Terunofuji stepped on the dohyo with the yusho secure, but he still had some sumo to share with Shodai. The Yokozuna exploited Shodai’s tachiai, and tucked in before the third step. Shodai looked like he wanted to change his plan, and you just can’t do that once Terunofuji has a hold of you. Shodai ends Aki with a 4 match losing streak, and looked like hell the whole way to the end. Terunofuji wins his 5th yusho with a solid 13-2.

This concludes Tachiai’s day-by-day coverage of the Aki Basho. Thank you dear readers for sharing the September tournament with us. We have had a lot of fun bringing you coverage of what has been a satisfying and thrilling basho.