With only four days remaining, I thought I’d take a look at the likely promotion/demotion scenarios.
As we know, Terunofuji will be dropping to sekiwake in November (well, ozekiwake). He’ll either take one of the two normal sekiwake slots or force the creation of an extra one if both current sekiwake defend their rank (see below).
Yoshikaze is 7-4 and needs only one more win to get his kachi-koshi and defend his rank, so he is in a strong position. Not so for Mitakeumi, who is 5-6 and needs 3 wins to defend his rank, and probably 2 to keep from dropping out of sanyaku altogether.
Tamawashi is also 5-6 and needs 3 wins to defend his komusubi rank and extend his sanyaku streak. Tochiozan is in an even tougher position at 4-7 and needs to run the table to stay at komusubi.
At least one sanyaku slot is likely to open up, and possibly 2. The main candidates for promotion are none other than 7-4 M1 Kotoshogiku, after one basho back in the maegashira ranks, and 8-3 M3 Chiyotairyu, who is still mathematically in the yusho race. The outcome of their bout tomorrow will determine who is in the pole position for the first open sanyaku slot. Fading 7-4 M3 Onosho is next in line. And don’t sleep on M5 Takakeisho, who’s quietly worked his way into contention with a 7-4 record.
Down on the other end of the banzuke, M16 Asonoyama, M14 Endo, and M13 Kaisei are all safely in Makuuchi for another basho. M10 Takekaze, at 4-7, and M10 Nishikigi, at 5-6, each probably need one more win to secure their places in the top division (although this also depends on the currently underwhelming state of things down in Juryo—how many promotion candidates will there be?)
M14 Okinoumi (5-6) probably needs two more wins to lock down a top-division stay. M10 Ishiura (2-9) is in a deeper hole, needing to go 3-1, and M15 Yutakayama (4-7) needs to win out.
M12 Sadanoumi (0-6-5) came back from kyujo for nought, and will be down in Juryo in November, as will M15 Tokushoryu (2-9), who should have been there for Aki.
Who is the frontrunner to return to Makuuchi, you ask? Why, it’s uncle (grandfather?) sumo, Aminishiki!
We are working our way towards the conclusion of this really crazy Aki basho, and it’s clear that another loss by Chiyotairyu, and Goeido will be able to claim the yusho. Short of injury, there is very little chance that Goeido can be derailed. Many sumo fans will grouse about his early match strategy of avoiding the fight, but a win is a win, and this yusho will be just as valid as all the others. In fact, having a well known rikishi able to step up and dominate the field of newcomers is probably quite important for fans and actually for the newcomers too. Too much fame too soon can be a poison to any athlete or performers career.
Goeido is now fighting daily like his old self from Aki 2016, and in this mode he is a worthy champion indeed. At one point a few days ago, a reader on Facebook accused Tachiai of “Goeido Bashing”. Some thoughts on that (Bruce’s opinion only here):
I have heard from some readers and fans that they are weary of Tachiai’s Goeido bashing. I welcome all comments and opinions here that come from our readers, as truly the site is nothing without you. So perhaps I can offer an explanation. Let’s start with a contrast.
Take a look at our coverage from Aki last year. We were unabashed raging Goeido enthusiasts, his sumo was amazing, and his accomplishment was literally record-setting. Some links for those who may not have been with us then
The team at Tachiai more or less love everything about sumo, and we think that every rikishi has a part to play in this wonderful and amazing sport. We have expectations of the top men of sumo, and we don’t feel they are unfounded, and when there is someone who is amazing as Goeido who choses to win easy rather than win big, we call him on it.
You can bank on the fact that when he does use his amazing offensive techniques to win, we are cheering him on. Tachiai loves sumo. Good, action packed, burly, crazy sumo. We cheer those who deliver, and chide those who would rather not.
Aki Leader board
Short of injury, there is very little chance that Goeido can be derailed from claiming his second yusho. Many sumo fans will grouse about his early match strategy of avoiding the fight, but a win is a win, and this yusho will be just as valid as all the others.
Leader – Goeido Chaser – Chiyotairyu
4 Matches Remain
What We Are Watching Day 12
Endo vs. Sadanoumi – Endo has kachi-koshi on the line today, while there are few reasons for Sadanoumi not to worry about a fast ramp down to Juryo for November. Their career record is 4-3 favoriting Endo, but in this tournament, Endo has been looking fairly strong.
Yutakayama vs. Chiyomaru – Yutakayama looking at maki-koshi and a return to Juryo as well should he lose today’s bout. Chiyomaru has faded in the second week, but should be able to give Yutakayama a good fight.
Ishiura vs. Daishomaru – Hapless Ishiura will likely be the prey for Daishomaru’s kachi-koshi bout. I am going to have to assume that at this point Ishiura is damaged in some why, and we just don’t know about it. He can’t seem to buy a win.
Asanoyama vs. Arawashi – Time to see if Mr Happy is going to be able to press for a sansho special prize. He will need to get two more wins before the end of the tournament for consideration, but day 12 against a resurgent Arawashi will be a stiff test. This is their first time meeting, but I would give the advantage to Arawashi.
Kaisei vs. Takarafuji – Takarafuji looks for his kachi-koshi win against a much improved Kaisei. Their career record is 11-9, with Kaisei in the lead, though Takarafuji holds the bulk of the more recent wins. I am expecting a somewhat methodical match between these two.
Onosho vs. Chiyonokuni – Onosho, like many of the tadpoles, faded in week 2. The brutal rotation of this bottom heavy basho has taken its toll on the newcomers, and Onosho is still looking to pick up his 8th win to secure his place for Kyushu. Chiyonokuni has been fighting well, but not winning as much as his frantic action on they dohyo might indicate. Chiyonokuni took their only prior match.
Tochinoshin vs. Hokutofuji – Hokutofuji is facing his second career make-koshi today. But Tochinoshin is in “limp home” mode now to be certain. It’s still possible for Hokutofuji to turn things around and eek out a winning record, but he needs to win everything from here on out.
Chiyotairyu vs. Kotoshogiku – Interesting strategic play here. A Chiyotairyu loss would hand the yusho to Goiedo. If you are Kotoshogiku, do you throttle back? I am going to say “no”. A win here today and Kotoshogiku also secures his winning record, and begins to make the case for his return to San’yaku. The Kyushu Bulldozer leads their career totals 5-1, so if Chiyotairyu does not blast him at the tachiai, I look for the hug-and-chug express to be applied with gusto.
Mitakeumi vs. Shodai – Another match of the disappointments. Both are at 5-6, both are looking really stale and ineffective. Shodai holds a slights 5-4 advantage in their career stats, but that may not matter too much for day 12. For Mitakeumi fans, don’t fear for him. Even if he is maki-koshi this time, he will be back. He is an excellent sumotori, but setbacks are to be expected along his road.
Takakeisho vs. Yoshikaze – Now this one has a lot of potential. Both of them are high intensity mobile attack platforms. Takakeisho has shown a preference for yo-yo maneuvers on his opponents, a repeated pattern of strike and retreat. We know that Yoshikaze has a deep bag of kimarite that he does not always reach too deeply into, but I am hoping he can uncork some fun attack got quell Takakeisho. Yoshikazen won their only prior match.
Shohozan vs. Goeido – Big Guns Shohozan will be against Goeido 2.0 or maybe even 2.1 on day 12. I love me some Shohozan power sumo, but Goeido is allowing himself to really execute his attacks at full power now. Goeido holds a clear series advantage at 10-5 against Shohozan.
Tamawashi vs. Harumafuji – Tamawashi has been delivering some really burly sumo the past week, and we know that Harumafuji is soldering on in spite of the pain and the problems. I think all of Harumafuji’s fans just want him to win 3 more and be able to exit Aki with some Yokozuna dignity in place.
Chapter 1, in which we congratulate Kachi-Koshi winners
Especially this one. Hello Asanoyama! Welcome to Makuuchi! It’s not easy to get your feet planted in this division, especially when you still don’t have your Oichomage. And in this crazy tournament, in which on day 11 only four wrestlers have a kachi-koshi, even more so. But sunny obachan-favorite Asanoyama quietly ascended the dohyo on each day, and delivered. He still has a lot to polish in his sumo, but he definitely has his sea legs. Today Kaisei wasn’t really much of a challenge for Takasago’s sole Sekitori.
Another kachi-koshi winner, joining the Ozeki and Chiyotairyu, is Takanoiwa, beating Daishomaru. Only a few days ago, Daishomaru was in the Yusho race… but he faded completely in the second half.
And another one who faded, with three straight losses, is the mighty Yokozuna slayer, Ozeki queller, Onosho. He will secure his kachi koshi for sure, and I still believe he can win double-digits. But something there has faded. This time it wasn’t even overcommitment. He just pulled a bit after the tachiai, and let Tochiozan take the initiative from there.
Chapter 2, in which we acknowledge the inevitable
Yep. Go-away-do has all but ordered the movers to pick up the Emperor’s Cup for him this Sunday. Chiyotairyu drops one (in case you are wondering, he is the one the title refers to), and the Ozeki now leads by those two infamous henka. If he had shown the same kind of sumo that he showed today throughout the tournament, I’d be cheering for him with all the enthusiasm I have left after the rain of torn tissue and kinboshi this basho has been. But for now, all I can do is sigh and shake my head. Please, young aspiring rikishi, don’t take the Aki 2017 champion as your role model. And yes, Mitakeumi, where is your sumo? Are you saving it up for the Yokozuna?
Chapter 3, in which we dissect our surviving yokozuna
So the Yokozuna faced Ichinojo today, and it was not as easy as some would think. On the one hand, Ichinojo is hard to beat on the mawashi, and on the other, he weighs too much to be moved easily. Eventually Harumafuji gave up on the mawashi grip on one side, sacrificed his pained left elbow, and pulled the 200kg Ichinojo around the dohyo and out. I’m not sure if the grimace at the end of the bout was because of the pain or because he managed a straight bullzeye at Shiranui oyakata – which, I believe, is his second time padding a rikishi’s fall this bout. If the kyokai comes to vote on padding around the dohyo, I’m sure Shiranui will be among the enthusiastic “yea” sayers.
His own Shiranui knot safe for the moment, tomorrow the Yokozuna of Pain gets to meet a rather genki Tamawashi. Rock, paper, or scissors?
Chapter 4, in which we engage in random thoughts and comments
I’ll drop for a second into Sandanme, to inform you that Enho won his 6th bout. Still lossless in his short career, he beat his chief rival, Honda, dealing him his first loss. The Sandanme Yusho race now has only three contenders left with perfect records, and the two others, Matsuda(#82) and Tanabe (#71) are ranked way below Enho. One more bout for Sandanme to complete, and we may expect another Yusho interview from this young one.
I have been musing about Ishiura. Could it be that he is getting a lot less Hakuho love now that the master has a new shiny toy? Both of them are Hakuho’s uchi-deshi (personal disciples, who, if he drops his nationality and takes on a kabu, will leave Miyagino and follow him to his new heya).
Climb up a little, of course I will not skip Aminishiki’s short and sweet hatakikomi:
Aminishiki is one win short of a Kachi-Koshi and return to Makuuchi, where he will depose Takekaze of his position as the eldest of the clan. Gambare, sly old fox!
Tochinoshin managed to grab a second white star off of the poor Kagayaki, and show a little of the stuff that brought him up to the joi this tournament. His stablemate, Aoiyama, tries to do the same as yesterday, stand up and fight, but Yoshikaze is having none of that. Between them, the two Kasugano guys can perhaps form a single, healthy Bulgeorgian rikishi, complete with hairy moobs, who will actually be a challenge at maegashira #1½.
Chiyomaru regains his enthusiasm, not that Sadanoumi is much of a challenge at this stage. In a slow day for the Kokonoe guys, Chiyomaru’s genki is a ray of sunshine. Which brings me to Chiyonokuni, who seemed to have been, out-tachiai’ed by, er, Shodai? How do you do that? Shodai just got up as he is used to, and Chiyonokuni leaped at him, bet somehow Shodai just swept him out of the dohyo like he was a fistful of salt.
To sum up the Kokonoe luckluster day (their two Juryo men also lost), Chiyoshoma does nicely against Takekaze, but they fall together. Monoii. Torinaoshi. And now the Takekazaur pulls Chiyoshoma down. Then there is Chiyotairyu, who starts enthusiastically, but Tamawashi seems unfazed and shows him what Sanyaku is all about.
Which leads me to Kotoshogiku, who is intent on getting back to Sanyaku, now that he has made the most of being a maegashira (hey, you can’t get kinboshi in sanyaku). Only one win to secure his first kachi-koshi in I don’t know how many basho.
Takarafuji seems to have run out of ATP in his romp with Ishiura yesterday. I’ll embed the video here again because some of the crowd that requested it may have missed it:
Courtesy of Kintamayama, blessed be he.
Anyway, Takarafuji was out of breath, and was unable to avenge his yokozuna. His kachi-koshi will have to wait a little more, and I hope that the injury in his elbow will not limit him. He does not deserve a demotion with the sumo he did this basho. He is the only Isegahama sekitori to lose today, with both Homarefuji and Legless Terutsuyoshi grabbing white stars.
Early news from Tokyo that American sumotori Wakaichiro won his day 11 match against Jonidan 9 Kiryu. With this win, Wakaichiro has secured a winning record, and will likely be ranked in Sandanme for the November basho in Kyushu.
