I wanted to take this opportunity to announce Tachiai’s Hatsu Basho contest winner, Andrew B.! Congratulations, Andrew! And thank you to BuySumoTickets for sponsoring the contest! I’m looking thinking up a new contest for March, possibly Ochiai’s record as a Juryo debutant? What do you all think?
Andrew has watched a sumo tournament in person before, watching multiple days of the Natsu 2019 tournament — where Asanoyama actually won. Unfortunately, he’d missed out on his next opportunity because of the pandemic. But he feels May is a great time to go since it avoids January’s cold and the heat of August. He actually also already had tickets to Hakuho’s retirement ceremony, an event which I will summarize in my next post (along with Toyohibiki’s ceremony). He does not expect to see Yokozuna Takakeisho at Natsu, quite yet. With so much instability at Ozeki at the moment, other chances may come. I, for one, am eager to learn of the T-Rex’s new yotsu skills will develop into a reliable weapon, especially for opponents above Maegashira 13. If he’s got that second weapon, it might put him over the edge and turn a nay-sayer, like myself into Yeasayer.
Yes, I made a terrible pun in order to have an excuse to share a song that I have been absolutely obsessed with…even if the video is a bit weird (even for a Tool fan). I go a little stir-crazy in between tournaments. Once again, Congratulations to Andrew for winning, and good luck to all future contestants in March! Stay tuned for more details on this weekend’s activities.
The Juryo promotions have been announced. We have two returnees: Tokushoryu, after a single basho in Makushita, and Tomokaze, who makes his long-awaited sekitori return after a long road back from a horrific leg injury in Kyushu 2019, just when he seemed to be on the cusp of top-division stardom.
And two rikishi make their salaried debuts. The first is 29-year-old Tamashoho, one of Tamawashi’s few stablemates as well as his brother-in-law. After 11 years in professional sumo, just making it to Juryo is a major career achievement for him.
Much more is expected of the other debutant, 19-year old Ochiai. The amateur star makes history by becoming the first modern rikishi to make it to Juryo after a single basho. He debuted at Ms15TD, and there was much debate regarding whether even a 7-0 record at that rank would be enough for promotion. Ochiai did his part by going undefeated to take the Makushita yusho, and looked dominant doing so. Now the banzuke committee has confirmed that Ms15TD is indeed within the extended promotion zone, and we can conclude that the reason Shimoda, the only previous man to go 7-0 at that rank, wasn’t promoted back in 2006 was lack of space. Tachiai looks forward to following Ochiai’s sekitori career with great interest.
The corresponding demotions are not announced, but looking at the records in Juryo, we can infer that in addition to the slot opened up by Okinoumi’s intai, three spots are being made available by dropping J13w Kaisho, J11e Chiyosakae, and J10w Terutsuyoshi, all 5-10, to the third division. The former two had their fates sealed before the final day, while Terutsuyoshi lost an exchange bout to Tamashoho, completing his fall from Makuuchi in November to Makushita in March. Tachiai wishes salt bae a speedy return to good health and the sekitori ranks, where his talent and fighting spirit belong.
First of all, I don’t understand why the need to rush what would be the weakest Yokozuna promotion in decades — not only based on the record of (12-3)x2 but based on strength of schedule. Terunofuji, the lone Yokozuna has been at home recovering for the last two tournaments, so that has meant Takakeisho fighting for the yusho in the musubi-no-ichiban twice in a row. That’s supposed to be thrilling, right? His senshuraku bouts have been against M9 Abi (he went 1 for 2) and M13 Kotoshoho. He has obviously faced zero Ozeki and zero Yokozuna over that time span yet still racked up three losses in each tournament.
A year ago, I was frankly worried that Takakeisho would be the next Ozeki to earn demotion. Thank God I was wrong about that. Over the last four tournaments, he’s turned in that impressive consistency that we expect from an Ozeki, with 45 wins or an average of just over 11 wins per tournament. Double-digit wins is what we expect from an Ozeki and he has accomplished it four tournaments in a row. Not bad. His last makekoshi record was a year ago, of which he’s had just six during his 21-tournament tenure at the rank (28.6%). That’s much better than Shodai’s 7 of 14.
But the comparisons to Kisenosato are unfair. Kisenosato was a staggeringly consistent Ozeki. Before his Yokozuna promotion, he had one make-koshi tournament out of, get this, 31 tournaments at the rank (3.2%). He averaged more than 10 wins per tournament over that entire span. That one make-koshi was a 7-8. And he did this against a full slate of Yokozuna and Ozeki, from Hakuho and Harumafuji to Kotoshogiku. In fact, a loss to Kotoshogiku was the only blemish on his 14-1 Yusho run, where he beat Ozeki Terunofuji and Yokozuna Hakuho on senshuraku. Let me say that again. He beat Hakuho on senshuraku to earn his rope. His tsuna-tori was accomplished with a storybook win over the GOAT. Let’s compare that to…checks notes…Kotoshoho? Come on.
Further, it would be a mistake to skip over the 12-3 Jun-Yusho and it’s a mistake to poo-poo that feat. He defeated each of the three Yokozuna, in succession — including obviously the yusho-winner, Kakuryu. Sadly, for Kisenosato, the storybook really ended after the next tournament with that dual victory over Terunofuji. The almost two years of kyujo is unfortunately how many remember his career but he was certainly deserving of the tsuna.
In my humble opinion, Takakeisho has not got there — yet. His 12-3 playoff loss cannot be compared to Kisenosato’s — and certainly not to Kakuryu’s 14-1 playoff loss to Hakuho. But Takakeisho is now, deserving of his tsunatori (Rope Run). If he wins in Osaka, he will certainly be promoted. I’d put the odds at 50-50. Nishikifuji yusho, anyone?
With the tournament now complete, I am eager to see what becomes of Takakeisho. There was a thought at the beginning of all of this, that he might begin March as the second Yokozuna alongside Terunofuji. Most likely that would have been contingent on a strong performance and a yusho. Some readers have pointed out that at 12-3 yusho against a Maegashira 13 is not at all strong. They are correct, but allow me to present the case why he many get the rope anyhow
Merit – At the end of Hatsu, Takakeisho had earned his third yusho, he had also just had a yusho doten, and the jun-yusho in July of 2022. Is that Hakuho level? Of course not, but it’s pretty close to Kakuryu level. But looking across the landscape of ozumo right now, who else is dominant in any sort of consistent fashion? No one, that’s who. There was a time a few tournaments ago, where it looked like Wakatakakage was going to hit and sustain a higher level of dominance, but he has since receded closer to his averages. Which takes us to our next point.
Safety – The Sumo Kyokai has a kanban rikishi problem. They have a Yokozuna, for as long as they can keep him going. There are likely regular update from Isegahama on his status, and they are well aware how his recovery is going. For a time they thought they might mint a new Ozeki this basho, and it would solve a thorny issue for them. Right now, they need Takakeisho if they are going to uphold the tradition of having at minimum 2 Ozeki on the banzuke. It may seem odd to westerners, but the sumo world really does love their traditions. There is a risk that Takakeisho might become injured in training, or worse yet in a match, and be 2 tournaments away from following Mitakeumi and Shodai down the banzuke. With no successor yet apparent, they need to give themselves some time should that happen. So, make Takakeisho a Yokozuna, and he can be on the banzuke even if he is taking a few months off to recover from some injury. Problem solved. It could also bring some beneifts…
Support – Sumo is largely a Japanese sport made for Japanese speaking fans living in Japan. Those who know and love Japan, understand that having a Japanese yokozuna is a big deal for the popularity of the sport nationally. Minting a new Yokozuna would boost interest and visibility of the sport, as it increasingly competes for attention of fans in a crowded media market. Simply put, it may be worth some much needed cash to mint a Japanese Yokozuna right now.
So there are my three points, I think he’s earned it, it solves a problem with the banzuke until such time as one of the next generation can get their sumo together, and it will be good for business. Feel free to chime in in the comment section below.
UPDATE: The Yokozuna Deliberation Council has now met, and while some members felt there should have been a promotion discussion by the JSA (there wasn’t one), most members believed that it wasn’t a high-level yusho, so there wasn’t much to discuss. The run is on for Haru, with promotion conditions unspecified. -lksumo, via Kintamayama over on Sumo Forum.
