Kyushu Day 10 Preview

Here we are at the final day of act 2. Act 2 is where we narrow the field to find out who has what it takes to compete for the yusho, and to start sorting the survivors from the damned. We can look back at the prior 4 days, and note that this mission has indeed been accomplished, though the formation of the yusho race was, for the third straight basho, delayed by a few days because nobody really stood out from the crowd in the middle weekend.

The last day of act 2 has a tremendous amount at stake, and is almost a mini-senshuraku in some ways. Some of the decision points teed up today:

  • Mitakeumi (4-5) – With 6 matches remaining, he must win them all or he loses his one chance to return to Ozeki. A loss today would end that bid
  • Wakatakakage (5-4) – With 5 wins, he needs 5 out of the last 6 matches to give any credibility to his hopes of stamping his ticket to Ozeki promotion at Hatsu. Given how inconsistent his performance has been this November, I would expect the NSK to extend his period of review by one basho anyhow
  • Takayasu, Nishikifuji, Abi (7-2) – All three could secure their kachi-koshi today with a win. None of them are out of the yusho race yet, but would need both leaders to stumble
  • Hoshoryu, Oho (8-1) – Currently leading the yusho race. They should expect everyone to be looking for them to eat at least one loss between now and Sunday, just to spice things up.

Kyushu Leaderboard

At last, I think it’s time for our leader board. Hoshoryu has to be marked as in the pole position for the cup, and while he’s tenuous at best, he’s currently the man to beat.

Leaders: Hoshoryu, Oho
Chasers
: Takayasu, Nishikifuji, Abi
Hunt Group: Takakeisho, Kiribayama, Hokutofuji, many others

6 matches remain

What We Are Watching Day 10

Kotoeko vs Azumaryu – A pair of 5-4 rikishi start off the top division today, with what could likely be a quick win for Kotoeko, who holds a 6-1 career advantage over Azumaryu. Azumaryu is looking for 8 wins by any route he can to finally secure his first top division kachi-koshi.

Onosho vs Ichiyamamoto – Onosho (5-4) had a solid 4-1 start to this basho, then proceeded to fight poorly and has gone 1-3 since day 5. Now sitting at a middling 5-4 record, he’s going to hope that Ichiyamamoto (6-3) stands still long enough that he can connect his big, tadpole style forward push a few times. If anything, Ichiyamamoto has shown in the past few days how he is incorporating more lateral motion into his sumo. Onosho should be careful.

Hiradoumi vs Kotoshoho – As the last man on the banzuke, Hiradoumi (6-3) has been a surprise this tournament. He has shown he can take on some top division regulars, and come out of if with a winning record. He has Kotoshoho (5-4) today, who won their only prior match on day 10 in September.

Aoiyama vs Oho – Now that Oho (8-1) has his kachi-koshi, I think his road to being knocked off the leaderboard starts today. Aoiyama (4-5) won their only prior match in January, by giving him the tent peg vs mallet treatment. I am certain he has a similar match plan today, and may be able to slug Oho around even though he is injured.

Takanosho vs Okinoumi – Under normal conditions, Takanosho (3-6) wins this one easily. But Takanosho is fighting a few notches below his normal, and will likely struggle against technician Okinoumi (4-5). They share an even 5-5 match history.

Takarafuji vs Chiyoshoma – The zero at the start of Takarafuji’s (0-9) score is like an abyssal well, a boundless source of unhappiness and trepidation. At least that’s how I see it. For him it may just be a natural consequence of fighting while injured. I think that Chiyoshoma (3-6) will be happy to pick up a win today.

Terutsuyoshi vs Tochinoshin – Terutsuyoshi (0-9) has already reported for orientation for the Juryo barge of the damned. As the plank-holder for this November edition, he will be responsible for sailing it safely from Fukuoka all the way back to Tokyo. As with the match above, 3-6 Tochinoshin will be thankful for the win.

Endo vs Atamifuji – As with most of Atamifuji’s matches this tournament, this is a first time bought. Endo is only fighting at at best 80%, but I would guess Atamifuji’s no better right now, so I would give Endo the edge. Both are 3-6.

Kagayaki vs Myogiryu – Although both of them are 6-3, I am fairly certain that this time out Myogiryu has the edge. Not only has he been fighting better, their 5-5 career record masks the fact that Myogiryu has won 3 of the last 4.

Abi vs Ryuden – Part of me really wants to see Abi (7-2) stay in the hunt for the Emperor’s cup, or at least hit double digits this time out. A win today against Ryuden (6-3) would be kachi-koshi for him. Abi holds a narrow 5-3 lead in their career series.

Ura vs Nishikigi – With Ura’s (1-8) knees likely in bad shape, I am not expecting him to offer much of a fight to yotsu-zumo connoisseur Nishikigi (4-5). Already make-koshi, I am fairly sure Ura will hit double digit losses this November. Hope you can heal up and come back strong in January, sir.

Meisei vs Hokutofuji – Hokutofuji (6-3) is on a bit of a hot streak right now, having won his last 4 in a row. I think that Meisei (5-4) is going to get the business today, and end up on the clay. Their career record is 4-3 in favor of Hokutofuji.

Nishikifuji vs Ichinojo – First ever match up, between 7-2 Nishikifuji and 2-7 Ichinojo. A loss today by the Boulder would be his 8th, and make-koshi for Kyushu. Hopefully if he does decide to go soft and let Nishikifuji execute “his brand of sumo”, he does not land too hard.

Tamawashi vs Wakamotoharu – Tamawashi (2-7) is struggling this tournament, no doubt about it. After taking the yusho in September, it would seem he came to Fukuoka injured, and has been grinding through the matches as best he can. He faces Wakamotoharu (5-4), who won their only prior match.

Kotonowaka vs Daieisho – This could be the most brutal match of the day if both rikishi employ their best sumo. We have 5-4 Kotonowaka against 4-5 Daieisho. Both of them can deliver big sumo action, and I would like nothing better than to see these two try to push each other to defeat.

Tobizaru vs Takayasu – Takayasu (7-2) has been an excellent spoiler this November, but today he faces the other spoiler, Tobizaru (5-4). As we saw on day 8, Tobizaru can be more frantic than even Takayasu, and still maintain a level of control and stability that Takayasu lacks. They have split their 4 prior matches, and a win today would be kachi-koshi for Takayasu.

Midorifuji vs Mitakeumi – Is it for Midorifuji to put an end to Mitakeumi’s aspirations for returning to the Ozeki rank? Mitakeumi won their only prior match, day 1 of Aki. But a loss today by Mitakeumi would make it impossible for him to reach the 10 wins he would need to return to sumo’s second highest rank. Both men are 4-5.

Wakatakakage vs Sadanoumi – Sadanoumi (4-5) has never won against Wakatakakage (5-4), and I don’t know of any reason for that to change today. But should his speed and bold sumo prevail, it will put a possibly fatal dent in Wakatakakage’s bid to be promoted to Ozeki early in 2023.

Takakeisho vs Kiribayama – Both men come into today with 6-3 records, and that means one of them is about to be knocked out of contention for the cup, even though both are 2 wins behind the leader pair. Takakeisho has a 7-4 career lead on the clay, but I think if Kiribayama is going to take one from the Grand Tadpole, this is going to be the time to do it. He has been on a bit of a win streak, with only the loss to Takayasu to blemish his run since the middle of act 1.

Hoshoryu vs Shodai – Well, Shodai. We know you can beat Hoshoryu, in fact you have won 5 of the prior 8 matches with the guy. You are bigger, you are strong, and believe it or not, you are still an Ozeki (at least for 6 more days). Gather your mojo and give Hoshoryu a big, pasty booger blast followed by a “Wall of Daikon”. Knock him back from the pole position, and open up the race.

Ozekipocalypse Now?

The photo above harkens back to the days, no so long ago, when sumo’s second-highest rank was stocked with multiple strong wrestlers. We also had Yokozuna above them on the banzuke. But the upper ranks have been dwindling ever since Asanoyama got suspended, getting bolstered only briefly by Mitakeumi’s promotion.

As Thomas laid out in his great post, we need at least two Ozeki and/or Yokozuna on the banzuke to convene a honbasho. No one is quite sure what would happen if the number dropped below this, and we probably don’t want to find out, but we are getting perilously close. For the moment, one spot is accounted for by Yokozuna Terunofuji, and we can only hope that his recent knee surgery will significantly extend his career. Ozeki Takakeisho (6-3) has been mostly solid, although he’s had his own injury issues. These two may very soon be the only rikishi standing between us and the Ozekipocalypse. For the record, the number has gotten this low exactly once in modern history, for a single basho in January of 1993.

Six days remain in the Kyushu basho, and our best bet to avoid matching this low is … Shodai? After a decent start, the kadoban Ozeki lost his last two bouts in a fairly listless fashion to drop to 4-5, and needs to finish 4-2 or better to avoid dropping to Sekiwake. Desperation-mode Shodai may yet pull another rabbit out of his hat, but with his highest-ranked opponents left to fight, the odds aren’t great.

Long as those odds may be, they are better than those that Mitakeumi (4-5) will go 6-0 to regain Ozeki, or that Wakatakakage (5-4) will win out and get promoted after a 3-basho run of 8-11-11. At this point, Hoshoryu might actually be a better bet to go 14-1 and get promoted off of 9-8-14 Y, but we are really in the realm of fantasy here. Any cavalry in the form of these two or the likes of Kiribayama, Takayasu, or (reaching here) Tobizaru won’t arrive before March or May at the earliest.

At this point, the likeliest scenario is that Hatsu will feature Terunofuji at the rare Yokozuna/Ozeki rank, with Takakeisho the sole Ozeki, Shodai seeking to rebound with 10 wins, and all eyes on who the next Ozeki might be.

Makushita Final Four

Please see my previous posts for background on the Makushita yusho and promotion races. Key bouts in the lower divisions are usually scheduled on odd-numbered days, meaning that elimination round 5 was completed on Day 9.

Here’s how things played out:

Ms1w Shonannoumi put up a very good fight and briefly had former Ozeki Asanoyama (Ms4e) in trouble, but the latter prevailed to move on.

Ms23e Tamashoho got a belt grip, and that spelled the end for Ms15w Tanabe. Tamashoho will fight Asanoyama, who has a big advantage in size and talent, and matches up well on the belt, but will have to watch out for the smaller man’s leg trips.

Ms41w Mineyaiba blew away teenager Ms26e Setonoumi and will fight Ms49w Chiyonokatsu, who overcame Ms60e Omoto.

So on Day 11 we will have two semifinals, whose winners will fight on Day 13 for all the marbles:

Asanoyama vs. Tamashoho

Mineyaiba vs. Chiyonokatsu

With no undefeated rikishi left at Ms6-Ms15, any promotions to Juryo will come from the Ms1-Ms5 promotion zone. We know at least one spot will be open due to Chiyotairyu’s sudden retirement. It’s too early to tell how many other openings there might be. Asanoyama can guarantee promotion by winning out, and is all but certain to go up with 6 wins, but things would get a lot more dicey should he somehow end the basho 5-2. Shonannoumi is also in good shape despite his loss, but needs one more win to solidify his case. The other one-loss man is former Juryo regular Ms5w Hakuyozan, whose rank at the very bottom of the promotion zone likely means he needs to win out.

Top-ranked Ms1e Shiden (2-3) lost his first crossover bout yesterday to J14e Tsushimanada, and now he must win out. I am expecting his next bout to come against another endangered Juryo rikishi. Ms2w Fujiseiun (3-2) probably also needs to win out to have a realistic shot at promotion. The M3 duo of Tokihayate and Daiseiryu, must win out to keep chair chances alive and hope for favorable results elsewhere.

None of the contenders are in action on Day 10, so the next update should come after Day 11 bouts are completed.

Kyushu Day 9 Highlights

Image shamelessly stolen from the NSK’s Twitter feed

Ozeki: Sumo’s second highest rank. It’s an elite group that have made it to this level, and today those that have or have worn the Ozeki rank took it in the pants. Ozeki are some of the most motivated and ambitious rikishi in the sport, they have to be to get to Sekiwake, and then press for 33 wins. But today’s action on the clay saw the Ozeki, and at least one Ozeki hopeful, lose their matches. Brutal stuff.

Highlight Matches

Ichiyamamoto defeats Okinoumi – Ichiyamamoto set up his tsuppari train, and kept landing blows against Okinoumi’s chest. The pressure was enough that Okinoumi tried a pull, and that ended his offense, and three steps later, the match. Ichiyamamoto improves to 6-3.

Kotoeko defeats Atamifuji – Atamifuji attacked well, getting a right hand inside grip, and taking Kotoeko to his chest. He looked to be in control, and set about getting Kotoeko backed up to the tawara. Atamifuji rotated to throw, and Kotoeko collapsed the move, sending Atamifuji onto his back. Nice come from behind win for Kotoeko, and he is 5-4.

Kagayaki defeats Kotoshoho – Kotoshoho showed that he had the better attack form, getting his hands inside and pushing Kagayaki with good effect. As Kotoshoho moved to deliver a finishing push to Kagayaki, Kagayaki was able to set to the side, sending Kotoshoho out. Kagayaki improves to 6-3.

Oho defeats Onosho – Solid match, beautifully played by Oho. He allowed Onosho to open with his big forward attack, and even to absorb the follow up attack too. By that time, Onosho was over committed, too far forward, and ripe for defeat. Oho steps to the side, and gives Onosho a shove from behind to take the match. That’s win number 8 for Oho, and he is kachi-koshi for November.

Hiradoumi defeats Aoiyama – Hiradoumi was clearly paying attention on prior days. He endured Aoiyama’s hitting about the head and neck, stepped inside and pushed Big Dan around. This did not take too much effort once he was able to make contact, and he put Aoiyama out by oshidashi. Hiradoumi now 6-3.

Azumaryu defeats Takarafuji – Probably the best match for Takarafuji thus far, he was able to get a left hand inside grip, and lock up Azumaryu chest to chest. From that stalemate, both men tested each other out a bit, but mostly stayed in the center of the ring for a good amount of time. But in time Azumaryu lifted and marched forward, carrying Takarafuji over the tawara. Azumaryu advances to 5-4.

Myogiryu defeats Chiyoshoma – Myogiryu immediately set up a right hand outside grip, and Chiyoshoma responded with a weak pull attempt before settling in chest to chest. Myogiryu took a moment to consolidate his position, then lifted and moved forward, carrying Chiyoshoma out from the side. Myogiryu now 6-3.

Endo defeats Terutsuyoshi – As with Takarafuji, this is the closest Terutsuyoshi has come to actually competing so far this November. He had a couple of good combos, and genuinely had Endo working to overcome his attacks. But Terutsuyoshi paused for a moment, Endo settled into the match, then counter attacked from the side, driving Terutsuyoshi out and dumping him into the salt basket. Endo with the much needed win at 3-6.

Ryuden defeats Takanosho – Takanosho with a strong initial effort, but Ryuden sets up a strong left hand frontal grip, and he is easily able to lift Takanosho up, and run him out. Easy payday for Ryuden who is now 6-3.

Nishikigi defeats Tochinoshin – Tochinoshin came out of the tachiai to find Nishikigi immediately at his chest with a right hand inside grip. Rather than place his own hands, Tochinoshin tried to pull, and that took him out of match. Nishikigi improves to 4-5.

Nishikifuji defeats Abi – Nishikifuji expertly gets in between Abi’s thrusting attacks, get a hold of an arm and pulls. Abi is completely disrupted, staggers forward, off balance. Nishikifuji finishes him with a push from the side, and Abi is knocked out of the leader group. Both end the day 7-2.

Hokutofuji defeats Ichinojo – Hokutofuji getting low and attacking big Ichinojo from underneath never gets old. He does it with such flair, and a little flourish at the end. Ichinojo lands in the front row with an audible thud, as Hokutofuji improves to 6-3.

Meisei defeats Takayasu – Impressive sumo from Meisei, he kept Takayasu off balance, and out of sync with his offense. By the time that Takayasu started to set up a grip and get himself in fighting position, Meisei already had him one step from the tawara. Takayasu drops out of the leader group, and Meisei advances to 5-4 by spoiling the spoiler on day 9.

Kiribayama defeats Kotonowaka – Kotonowaka genuinely did not look ready to fight as Kiribayama gave him two good volleys, and Kotonowaka did not really respond. Kiribayama established a hold, and still Kotonowaka did not look ready to fight, so Kiribayama threw him to the clay, taking the win and is now 6-3.

Tamawashi defeats Ura – Ura gets in some mischief at the tachiai, and nearly upends Tamawashi with a leg grab. But Tamawashi breaks contact and snaps into his attack form. Three quick moves later, he throws Ura down with the seldom seen kimarite gasshohineri, a clasped hand twist down. Ura hits the deck and is make-koshi while Tamawashi improves to 2-7.

Hoshoryu defeats Sadanoumi – Well, Hoshoryu, that was some weak sauce, sir. Not quite a henka, but close enough. He picks up his 8th win and is kachi-koshi.

Midorifuji defeats Wakatakakage – Trouble came early as Midorifuji set up a double inside grip on the second step after the tachiai. Wakatakakage worked hard to break contact, probably too hard, and lost his balance. At the moment he was unweighted, and attempting to recover, Midorifuji presented one of his delightful katasukashi, and Wakatakakage hits the deck. That “oof” noise you heard was Wakatakakage’s Ozeki run gasping for air.

Wakamotoharu defeats Mitakeumi – Wakamotoharu endured Mitakeumi’s initial disrupting attack, and kept contact, getting a left hand inside grip on Mitakeumi’s belt. At that moment, Wakamotoharu had the initiative, and chose to lift and push forward. Mitakeumi was able to resist for a moment, but lost traction and stepped out. Mitakeumi’s return to Ozeki joins Wakatakakage’s Ozeki bid in the emergency room, Wakamotoharu now 5-4.

Daieisho defeats Shodai – Daieisho continues his dominance over Shodai, now 14-8. Daieisho delivers a quick opening combo, raising Shodai up, then repeats adding pressure, which walks Shodai back. On the final shove, Shodai seems to go soft and just embrace his defeat. Both end the day 4-5.

Tobizaru defeats Takakeisho – Oh wow, Tobizaru was able to out push Takakeisho. I even thing I saw that crazy flying monkey use a volley of the old “wave action tsuppari”. A tough day in Ozeki and former Ozeki land indeed, and Tobizaru improves to 5-4.