The changing of the sumo guard is now in full swing. How rude, you say! Terunofuji is still a potent technician in the ring and a yusho threat every time he steps on the dohyo. In fact, over his yokozuna tenure (so far) he has an almost 50% yusho win rate if he shows up on day 1 of the basho, but he is also at a stage in his career where he misses more tournaments than he makes, and the end draws nearer every day. Now, with the retirement in September of his main rival, Takakeisho, who was himself a several-time candidate for the white rope, I think it’s fair that we be allowed to turn our attentions to the next generation and have some fun speculating over the big question on everyone’s minds:

Who is next in line for sumo’s throne?

A few fun facts before we get started. Yokozuna promotions are a regular occurrence in sumo, but they are not frequent. There have only been 73 in the last 275 years, which is an average of 1 yokozuna every 3.77 years. Spoken another way, that’s a new yokozuna every 23ish basho.

Recent history seems to maintain this trend. If we only consider the last 10 yokozuna promotions (starting with the elevation of the late, great Akebono in March 1993), then we see the average gap between yokozuna promotions shrink only marginally, to 3.098 years, or just over 18 basho. The shortest gap during that time was exactly one year, between the promotions of Wakanohana and Musashimaru. The longest gap was between Hakuho and Harumafuji, a span of 5 years and 4 months, or 32 basho(!), which I believe can be easily explained by Hakuho’s (and until 2010, Asashoryu’s) utter dominance during that period.

So where does that leave us? Looking at the numbers, it would appear we are due, as it has now been just over 3 years since Terunofuji’s promotion. Who will next rise to claim the title? There are several contenders, some more likely than others, and I have separated them into 3 categories: front runners, dark horses, and prospects.

Front runners:

Onosato, Kotozakura, Hoshoryu

It should come as no surprise that the most promising candidates are our three current ozeki. They are all still young, and Aki’s lackluster performances notwithstanding, appear increasingly strong in their sumo. Onosato’s rise to ozeki is the fastest in professional history, and with 2 yusho already in 5 top division basho he is my runaway favorite, but I would not sleep on his ozeki rivals either. Both Kotozakura and Hoshoryu have jun-yusho in the last year, and neither have logged a losing record / gone kadoban since attaining their ozeki rank. Not every yokozuna breezes through ozeki (Harumafuji took 22 basho to earn the rope; Musashimaru took 32).

I’d say all three current ozeki have the makings of a grand champion—it is simply down to them to execute. With his size, strength, and overwhelming style, Onosato seems not a question of “if” but “when.” Kotozakura reminds me of Kisenosato with his disciplined, patient sumo—let’s hope he doesn’t also share the former yokozuna’s yusho woes. Hoshoryu, meanwhile, has always held an athleticism edge over his foes, beating them to the punch and pulling off spectacular counters, but now he seems to be bulking to match their size. Let’s hope his gains don’t come at the expense of his agility and finesse.

Dark horses:

Kirishima, Wakatakakage

Hear me out. Yes, both men are closer to age 30 than the front runners, and neither are currently ozeki due to unfortunate injuries—Wakatakakage’s coming before he could earn promotion and Kirishima’s, sadly, coming just after his ozeki rise.

BUT, both men, when healthy, are strong, technical, and tenacious. Both are former yusho winners (Kirishima won two just last year, don’t forget), and both had identical 12-3 records in this most recent Aki basho. To me this signals potential, even if the likelihood is not high. Both would have to earn (or re-earn) promotion to ozeki first, and then elevate their wrestling further while fending off a host of talented rivals, but crazier things have happened (see: Terunofuji’s career). If both men can preserve their good health long enough to sustain the runs they started in September, their shot at ozeki—and subsequently yokozuna—will be better than most.

Prospects:

Takerufuji, Atamifuji, Hakuoho

There are dozens of young rikishi who may unexpectedly become the next world beater in sumo, but Leonid won’t lend me his banzuke crystal ball, so there’s no point in making wild guesses.

Aw heck, let’s do it anyway. There are a trio of rikishi who, in my opinion, pass “the smell test” of a sumo star in the making, and they are debutant yusho winner Takerufuji, his baby-faced teammate Atamifuji, and the Boss’s protégé, Hakuoho.

Because he’s already held the Emperor’s Cup, it makes sense to me to start with Takerufuji, even though he’s (at the time of this writing) the lowest ranked of the three. The same age as Hoshoryu, he would likely already be making his own run at ozeki if not for that fateful ankle injury, but the good news is that the recovery process seems not to have diminished him whatsoever. His official comeback in Aki took the form of a dominant Juryo yusho, and if he’s not back in Makuuchi next basho, I fear for the second tier. He looks that strong, the proverbial unstoppable force who has yet to meet the immovable object, and unless another injury sidelines him, I think his bullet train oshi style could carry him all the way to sumo’s peak.

His teammate, Atamifuji, has had a quieter—yet more steady—rise, but he’s already got a pair of jun-yusho to his name and is now threatening for sanyaku promotion at the tender age of 22. Don’t let the baby face or the goofy pre-bout dance routine fool you. He’s BIG, he’s strong, and he’s exceptionally patient in his sumo for one so young. I fully expect Atami to threaten for ozeki promotion within the next two years, and from there, who knows his ceiling? Not I.

Lastly, I’d like to speak briefly on Hakuoho, the pride of (temporarily disbanded) Miyagino stable. The best sumo wrestler to ever do it thinks this kid’s got what it takes, so who am I to gainsay him? The only thing standing in this young man’s way is injuries, and to see all the tape on him, you can’t help but feel his hurt. Hakuoho’s initial rise into the salaried ranks was nothing short of impressive, with displays of technical polish you just don’t see in rikishi that young, and if he can get healthy, I fully expect to see him reassert that prowess against the top division again.

There are of course others with promise—Hiradoumi and Oho come to mind, as well as a slew of lower division youngsters who appear to have a future in the top division—but we haven’t the time for them all. I’m sure many will also protest the exclusion of the likes of Wakamotoharu and Daieisho, but in my opinion both are too old and too limited to make a legitimate run at ozeki, let alone yokozuna. As I said up above, this is my smell test and nothing more. Feel free to tell me in the comments who’s on your olfactory radar, and if 5 years down the road you happen to be right, save this post and rub my nose in it.