Well, that was an unbelievable basho, in a lot of ways. It had everything, including some incredible individual moments and performances. It had the best guys in the sport putting up the biggest wins and the best results, it had both the predictable and the unpredictable. Probably the only real regrettable things about the basho were that Asanoyama and (predictably) Takayasu’s fitness couldn’t sustain themselves for 15 days. Asanoyama is otherwise in the yusho race or at least putting up a score that vaults him to the top of the rank-and-file.
Two of my other top moments were scenes you could just telegraph: Terunofuji reading Onosho’s tachiai perfectly to showcase his ability to win with the minimum of hit points to his beleaguered physique, and Hoshoryu’s perfect read of Takanosho’s in-and-under-the-arms tachiai into what has become his signature throw. Kirishima of course was involved in two of the most significant bouts of the tournament, against the other top dogs.
Sumo has a lot of these “Sliding Doors” moments, incredible victories that signal a turn in results or that have an impact on the banzuke or a rikishi’s career well into the future. Moments that could have well gone another way. These incidents are normally forgotten. In sumo, it’s not really about what almost happened, it either happened or it didn’t. You get no points for “almost.”
Heading into senshuraku, there was an altogether other set of events that could have occurred and profoundly altered the future of sumo in 2024 (and beyond) as we know it. But neither match broke in the direction that was required: Kotonowaka knocked off a stubborn Tobizaru to deal the flying monkey his makekoshi, clinching Kotonowaka his Ozeki promotion and – at least – a trip to the yusho playoff. Terunofuji, of course, won against the Ozeki Kirishima in dominant fashion to clinch his own playoff spot.
Kirishima entered the final day one off the pace, at 11-3. A win and a 12-3 record would not ordinarily be the kind of result that would set the weavers in motion, but had these results broken the other way, it would have landed him in a three way yusho playoff and with the chance to seal a second consecutive yusho (and third overall) which would have certainly established an overwhelming claim to promote him to the sport’s highest rank.
After all, Terunofuji entered this basho following a run of seven kyujo from his previous eight tournaments, and with increasing speculation as to his long term future in the sport. Most observers – including the NHK Sumo Preview team – didn’t seem to place much faith in him still being in the sport at year’s end, and with Terunofuji’s shisho set to step down in 2025 (upon reaching mandatory retirement age, presumably leaving the heya in the Yokozuna’s care after Ajigawa-beya’s recent branch-out), it is likely that there will be a need for a new Yokozuna sooner than later. It’s possible that a Kirishima defeat of the Yokozuna and his presence in a playoff (win or lose, but probably contingent on a win) might have been enough to see the Michinoku-beya man promoted and the long term future of the rank secured.
However, for that to have happened, Kirishima would also have needed Tobizaru to have secured kachi-koshi against Kotonowaka. While the feisty underdog put forward a spirited challenge, the Sadogatake man-mountain was simply immovable.
In the end, of course, Kirishima’s 11-4 restarts his challenge. But, it certainly is the best performance we’ve seen from a yusho-winning Ozeki under the circumstances since Terunofuji’s own yokozuna promotion. It is difficult to say that Kirishima didn’t take the challenge all the way to the death, although he is doubtlessly counting the cost of losses to Midorifuji and Tobizaru, which in the end are the reason why his promotion challenge was so cruelly undermined.
A reversal of Tobizaru’s fortunes wouldn’t have done much for his own standing in Osaka, but Kotonowaka would have been sitting on a less attractive 32 wins from the previous three basho. While there is no de facto standard for Ozeki promotion, it can be argued that the Kyokai might have asked for another strong tournament in light of the fact he’d only need to upgrade on the 9 wins in the tournament at the beginning of the run. As is, the 9-11-13 nature of improvement, all at the Sekiwake rank, and taking the Yokozuna literally to the edge (in a playoff that was in fact closer than it might have looked), was enough to get the job done.
While Kotonowaka will fight at least one more basho under the ring name of his father and shisho (before presumably succeeding to the vaunted name of his grandfather Kotozakura), the future propects of another man carrying the weight of his shisho’s shikona are less certain. Kirishima will again enter the Haru basho as one of the favourites, but now on level standing with three other Ozeki who will all have hopes of fulfilling the criteria to become the 74th Yokozuna this year.
The upcoming Haru basho will be the final basho to take place with the current iteration of Michinoku beya intact, and Kirishima will not have be able to make the step up to the sumo’s ultimate rank before his stablemaster reaches retirement age: had the fates aligned differently, Kirishima II would have reached Yokozuna in Kirishima I’s final basho as head of Michinoku beya. If the Ozeki ever does make it, it will be under yet-to-be determined leadership at a different heya (presumably, one of the five other heya within the ichimon) at some point in the future.
Looking forward, Takakeisho will be looking for a repeat of his fourth yusho, which also took place in a basho he entered kadoban following a kyujo withdrawal from the previous tournament. Hoshoryu will have correctly decided that his late injury withdrawal from Hatsu will give him better chance to fully recover and challenge for honours in March. And Kotonowaka will want to prove worthy of the Kotozakura name. It will not be easy for Kirishima.
Going forward, we won’t think about another future that might have been possible. Takakeisho himself has had multiple near-misses over the years, but going into senshuraku a different future was very much in play. Instead, Kirishima’s 11-4 record is all that, more likely that not, will barely be remembered about this tournament. What might have been won’t matter when the next basho begins. This was a basho where Kotonowaka punched his ticket to the big time and Terunofuji let us all know he was still the man to beat. Everything else is just a subtext for those of us desperately seeking narrative in this mad world of sumo. And for that, let’s hope the next affair at the EDION Arena can match the outstanding tournament just gone.
