Tochinoshin (栃ノ心)

Heya Power Rankings: Hatsu-Haru 18

Josh K Haru Basho 2018 (Osaka), Hatsubasho 2018, Stables (Heya), Tochinoshin (栃ノ心) ,

 

Tochinoshin Victorious
“Look at all those points you’ve got in the Tachiai Heya Power Rankings,” presumably.

Before the opening of another tournament, let’s check in with the latest Heya power rankings. This time out we’ve seen some wild variance in the results of a few stables, while many stables following a period of much change have consolidated amongst some more consistent performance. Are you ready for some charts? Me too:

Heya power rankings hatsu 2018

There are a few major stories from the various stables’ performance last time out as we identify areas of improvement ahead of Haru, but let’s look at this in “Billboard” style Top 20 chart form:

  1. (+3) Tagonoura. 95 points (+30)
  2. (+12) Kasugano. 94 points (+71)
  3. (+3) Sakaigawa. 60 points (+19)
  4. (+3) Kokonoe. 49 points (+9)
  5. (+4) Oitekaze. 46 points (+8)
  6. (-5) Miyagino. 45 points (-56)
  7. (+3) Izutsu. 45 points (+15)
  8. (**) Takadagawa. 30 points (+20)
  9. (+4) Dewanoumi. 25 points (even)
  10. (**) Shikoroyama. 24 points (+18)
  11. (+5) Tomozuna. 23 points (+3)
  12. (-9) Isegahama. 21 points (-62)
  13. (-11) Hakkaku. 20 points (-75)
  14. (-6) Kataonami. 20 points (-20)
  15. (+3) Tokitsukaze. 20 points (+2)
  16. (-11) Takanohana. 19 points (-35)
  17. (-6) Oguruma. 19 points (-9)
  18. (-6) Sadogatake. 19 points (-8)
  19. (+-) Isenoumi. 18 points (even)
  20. (**) Kise. 16 points (+5)

Movers

Takadagawa and Shikoroyama rejoin the ranks with decent scores due to good debuts and special prizes for Ryuden and Abi respectively.

It’s all change, however, at the top with Tagonoura regaining top position basically off the back of Takayasu’s jun-yusho. While this may seem unfair in light of the fact that he’s the only Tagonoura rikishi to have finished the tournament, the heya scores points for having a competing Yokozuna – if Kisenosato doesn’t show up and goes full-kyujo for Haru, it’ll be tough for them to maintain this position short of a Takayasu yusho.

Of course, there’s no surprise in seeing the enormous gain for Kasugano-beya, off the back of Maegashira 3 Tochinoshin’s incredible yusho and double special prize winning performance. While that wasn’t quite enough to vault the stable to the top of the chart, given that they have a few rikishi in the banzuke who could be primed for good tournaments next time out, they should still remain in the top 10 even if they don’t score an unlikely consecutive yusho. And in a “No-kozuna” scenario, Tochinoshin should still be a good bet to perform well as a Sekiwake.

Losers

Miyagino falls here owing to the loss of its usual yusho threat Hakuho to kyujo status. Should he show in Haru, the stable could be due a nice rebound with Enho joining the sekitori ranks, especially if Ishiura can turn up genki enough to threaten a kachi-koshi.

Of the three other big stables to tumble, Hakkaku takes a drop due to Hokutofuji and Okinoumi’s inability to register even a winning record following their dual jun-yusho/special prize winning Kyushu. Takanohana, meanwhile, should be a decent rebound candidate if Takakeisho can get back to winning ways and Takanoiwa can return to action as he should be a real yusho threat in Juryo, but that remains unclear.

Finally, there’s no glossing over the incredible fall from grace for Isegahama-beya on our rankings. This is the first tournament where they’ve not featured a Yokozuna even for part of the tournament since we’ve put the Power Rankings together, and of course Terunofuji continues to tumble down the banzuke, Aminishiki was partially kyujo and Terutsuyoshi had dropped from the professional ranks in Hatsu. While it would have seemed improbable not long ago, over half of the stable’s points were registered by Takarafuji and, with most of their rikishi now in Juryo, it may be up to him to arrest a further slide. Let’s take a look at all this in visual form:

isegahama power rankings 2018.1

Incredibly, the recent high performance water mark for Isegahama was just three tournaments ago as Harumafuji won Aki, showing just how severe the slide has been. Obviously our metrics for performance measurement have not been the end-all-be-all, but this does at least give some reflection of the stable’s banzuke presence and on-dohyo performance in the last year, relative to itself.

Haru Story 3 – The Advancers

Bruce H Endo (遠藤), Haru Basho 2018 (Osaka), Ichinojo (逸ノ城), Injuries, Tochinoshin (栃ノ心) ,

Endo-Kokugikan

The 2018 Hatsu basho included some solid performance from rikishi who have struggled in the last year. Above all, three rikishi who have worked hard to overcome injury stand out above the rest, and for each man, may mark a turn around in their career. For Haru, they are ranked at the upper end of Makuuchi, most of them for the first time in more than a year.

Tochinoshin – The Hatsu basho winner battled back from a series of injuries, the most critical to his right knee. IN 2013, he dropped out of the Nagoya tournament and spent the following 8 months recovering and re-training after surgery to rebuild his right knee. He re-entered professional sumo ranked near the middle of Makushita, and proceeded to tear up every competitor in Makushita and Juryo. Though he battled back to Sekiwake, he could not maintain the rank, most likely due to continued pain and discomfort in his knee. Now at Sekiwake for the second time in his career, fans are hoping that he can return strong and continue his dominance from Hatsu. Whatever may come, it will all depend on him keeping his knees stable and healthy. With his knees healthy, he is tough to beat.

Ichinojo – There are many superlatives that can and should be applied to the Mongolian giant Ichinojo. His tall and massive body is nearly impossible for smaller men to move. When he first arrived in professional sumo, he was unstoppable. In his first basho in Makuuchi, he took Jun-Yusho with a 13-2 record, along with 2 special prizes. But like Tochinoshin, injuries put a halt to his meteoric rise. Since then he has struggled and frequently seemed to be going through the motions, unsure of his sumo, and unable to dominate in the ring. Something changed in November. For the last two tournaments, he turned in 10-5 records and has generally seemed to have regained mastery of his sumo.

Endo – Although you may not know it watching the NHK highlight shows, but Endo has a huge following the show-up day after day to cheer him on. It’s not just ladies swooning over his looks, serious sumo fans always keep their eye on Endo. Like the other two rikishi, he rose fast through the ranks at the start of his career but ran into troubles with nagging, chronic injuries. Last summer, he dropped out of Nagoya and underwent surgery to repair his damaged ankle. Since returning, he has been fighting well, and seems to have resolved his chronic problems. Endo is an excellent technical fighter, he has fantastic moves and very good balance between offense and defense. He struggled post-surgery mostly due to de-conditioning of his body, but that has been improving over time. Now back at Maegashira 1 East, a winning record here might put him in the San’yaku for the first time ever.

 

Bruce’s Haru 2018 Banzuke Commentary

Bruce H Abi (阿炎), Aminishiki (安美錦), Hakuho (白鵬), Haru Basho 2018 (Osaka), Ichinojo (逸ノ城), Mitakeumi(御嶽海), Ryuden (竜電), Takekaze (豪風), Terunofuji (照ノ富士), Tochinoshin (栃ノ心) , , ,
Banzuke 2017
Yes, A Banzuke from 2017…

First and up-front, the normal Tachiai banzuke podcast has been delayed due to yours-truly being away on business. We will work to have it ready for your viewing and listening pleasure on Friday.

With the publication of the Haru banzuke, Hakuho has set a new record by appearing for 64 consecutive tournaments as a Yokozuna. The man continues to rack up records, and although age is starting to nip at his heels, he refuses to slow down.

Mitakeumi holds on for a fifth consecutive tournament at the Sekiwake slot. Sadly he has yet to summon the mojo to start an Ozeki campaign, but fans are impressed that he is proving quite resilient at this rank. He is joined by Hatsu yusho winner Tochinoshin. The big Georgian has been out of the Sekiwake slot since July of 2016, and returns in glorious fashion. Fans are eager to see if he can run his score to double digits once again.

As lksumo posted, his banzuke forecast was once again amazingly good, but what surprised me was just how far down former Ozeki Terunofuji dropped. Now down at Juryo 5 (which he shares with Gagamaru), his fans cringe and wonder if his damaged body can even hold this rank. We all want our kaiju back. Fortunately for Takekaze, his drop was only to Juryo 1, and with a winning record he will be back in the top division by May. The road for Uncle Sumo (Aminishiki) is almost the same, but with his damaged knees, the task is much harder.

Abi and Ryuden seem to be carrying the banner for the “Freshmen” (as I have taken to calling them). Ranked in mid-Maegashira, they are going to have their hands full with a number of veterans who had a terrible tournament in January. If Yoshikaze is over whatever illness plagued him at Hatsu, we are likely to see a lot of great, madcap sumo in the middle tier this time.

Of course I have my eye on the giant at Komusubi 1 East, our favorite boulder, Ichinojo. He was last in the San’yaku at Nagoya 2015, and has not been able to maintain consistant good sumo since. This could be a huge turning point for the Mongolian giant, and everyone is eager to see if he continues his excellent performance from Kyushu and Hatsu. It’s been an even longer drought for Chiyotairyu, who was last Komusubi in September of 2014.

Much further down, Tachiai congratulates Texas sumotori Wakaichiro on his return to Sandanme. After an outstanding performance at Hatsu, the man from Nagasaki finds himself Sandanme 89 East. We can be certain that his coaches at Musashigawa have been tuning him up for his second run at this rank.

A great tournament starts two weeks from today, and Tachiai’s wall-to-wall coverage starts now!

Haru Banzuke Crystal Ball

lksumo Abi (阿炎), Aminishiki (安美錦), Arawashi (荒鷲), Asanoyama (朝乃山), Banzuke (番付), bcb, Chiyomaru, Chiyonokuni (千代の国), Chiyoshoma, Daiamami (大奄美), Daieisho (大栄翔), Daishomaru, Endo (遠藤), Forecasting, Gōeidō (豪栄道), Hakuho (白鵬), Haru Basho 2018 (Osaka), Ichinojo (逸ノ城), Ikioi (勢), Ishiura (石浦), Juryo (十両), Kachi Koshi, Kagayaki (輝), Kaisei (魁聖), Kakuryu (鶴竜), Kisenosato (稀勢の里), Kotoshogiku (琴奨菊), Kotoyuki, Mitakeumi(御嶽海), Miyogiryu, Nishikigi, Okinoumi (隠岐の海), promotion, Ryuden (竜電), San'yaku (三役), Sekiwake (関脇), Shohozan, Shōdai (正代直也), Sōkokurai (蒼国来), Takakeishō (貴景勝), Takayasu (高安), Takekaze (豪風), Tamawashi (玉鷲), Terunofuji (照ノ富士), Tochinoshin (栃ノ心), Tochiozan (栃煌山), Yokozuna (横綱), Yoshikaze (嘉風), Yutakayama, Ōnoshō (阿武咲), Ōzeki (大関)

Aminishiki

Unlike the Hatsu banzuke mess, the Hatsu results should make for a fairly predictable Haru banzuke.

Upper San’yaku

Y1

Kakuryu

Hakuho

Y2

Kisenosato

O1

Takayasu

Goeido

The rankings aren’t in doubt, but nonetheless there are many questions about this group. Which if any Yokozuna will show up? Kakuryu (ankle) and Hakuho (toes) are nursing injuries. Kisenosato has declared that the next tournament he enters will be his make-or-break one—perform at Yokozuna level for 15 days or retire. My guess a month before the basho is that Hakuho is very likely to participate, Kakuryu is also likely to compete, and Kisenosato will most likely sit this one out.

Lower San’yaku

S

Mitakeumi

Tochinoshin

K

Ichinojo

 Chiyotairyu

In the upper ranks, a kachi-koshi (winning record) is no guarantee that your position within the rank won’t change: witness the Yokozuna and Ozeki getting reshuffled based on their performances at the previous basho. This used to be the case for Sekiwake as well, with 8-7 East Sekiwake frequently moving to West Sekiwake for the subsequent tournament when a more deserving candidate for East Sekiwake existed. However, this seems to have changed about ten years ago (perhaps someone can shed light on the history), and an 8-7 record at Sekiwake (or Komusubi) now appears to guarantee retention of rank and side. A recent example of this is S1e Tamawashi not switching sides with S1w Takayasu even after their respective 8-7 and 12-3 performances at last year’s Haru basho. Long story short, 8-7 Mitakeumi will retain his S1e rank, with 14-1 yusho winner Tochinoshin joining him at Sekiwake on the West side. Ichinojo and Chiyotairyu, the highest-ranked maegashira with winning records at Hatsu, should take over the Komusubi slots vacated by Takakeisho and Onosho.

Upper Maegashira

M1

Tamawashi

Endo

M2

Arawashi

Kotoshogiku

M3

Takakeisho

Takarafuji

M4

Shodai

Shohozan

M5

Chiyomaru

Onosho

Endo has been ranked M1 twice before, but has never broken through to San’yaku. Is this his time? Arawashi would similarly tie his highest rank, while Chiyomaru has never been ranked above M8. Everyone else in this group has been ranked in San’yaku, most of them within the last couple of years.

Mid-Maegashira

M6

Kaisei

Hokutofuji

M7

Yoshikaze

Kagayaki

M8

Abi

Okinoumi

M9

Chiyoshoma

Chiyonokuni

M10

Daieisho

Tochiozan

M11

Yutakayama

Ryuden

A mix of rikishi in a holding pattern in this part of the banzuke (Kaisei, Chiyoshoma, Chiyonokuni, Tochiozan), higher-ranked rikishi dropping down after rough Hatsu performances (Hokutofuji, Yoshikaze, Okinoumi), and up-and-comers making a move up the banzuke (Kagayaki, Abi, Daieisho, Yutakayama, Ryuden). Three of the rikishi promoted from Juryo for Hatsu put up good numbers and find themselves here.

Lower Maegashira

M12

Kotoyuki

Daishomaru

M13

Ishiura

Ikioi

M14

Asanoyama

Nishikigi

M15

Myogiryu

Sokokurai

M16

Daiamami

Hidenoumi

M17

Aoiyama


Predicted demotions to Juryo: Terunofuji, Aminishiki, Takekaze. Predicted promotions: Myogiryu, Hidenoumi, Aoiyama. Often, this area of the banzuke contains a bunch of poor performances from the previous basho, but the only one who really fits that bill is Ikioi, who is dropping from M6 after putting up a 4-11 record. Kotoyuki, Daishomaru, and Sokokurai put up mediocre numbers, but Ishiura, Asanoyama, Nishikigi, and Daiamami all earned kachi-koshi records at Hatsu. Nevertheless, they’ll be fighting for their Makuuchi lives again in Osaka, as everyone in this group needs a minimum of 6 wins (more for those closer to the bottom) to be safe from demotion.