Sōkokurai (蒼国来)

Day 3 Undercard Matches to Watch

Liam R Abi (阿炎), Aminishiki (安美錦), Asanoyama (朝乃山), Daiamami (大奄美), Daieisho (大栄翔), Hatsubasho 2018, Ishiura (石浦), Kagayaki (輝), Ryuden (竜電), Sōkokurai (蒼国来), Takekaze (豪風)

After a great Day 1, it seemed like some of the early basho rust began to show on the second day of the 2018 Hatsu Basho. We may see a bit more rust tomorrow as Rikishi get back into the swing of things. That being said, so far I’ve been very impressed with many of the young rikishi at the bottom of the banzuke. Here are a few Day 3 undercard matches that should be entertaining, including several first time encounters.

Ryuden vs. Asanoyama

The day starts off with what should be an excellent matchup between Asanoyama and Ryuden. Asanoyama looked dialed in on Day 2 and easily took care of Nishikigi. His more serious demeanor seems to be doing wonders for his sumo. Ryuden was not so lucky on Monday, and he will be looking to get back into the win column on Day 3. This bout has the potential to become an uwatenage competition, as both men are known for their skillful throwing techniques. They have met once before in Juryo at the 2017 Natsu Basho in a match Asanoyama won.

Ishiura vs. Daiamami

Ishiura and Daiamami will face off for the first time in their careers on Day 3. Ishiura is no stranger to fighting much larger rikishi and has beaten behemoths like Ichinojo, Chiyotairyu, and Chiyomaru with his patented submarine attack. The only difference now is that pretty much everyone and their okasan knows how to deal with Ishiura’s favorite move. Given that Daiamami has never taken on Ishiura, we may see the smaller man try the submarine once more. Daiamami will have to be quick on his feet if he wants to pick up his second win.

Takekaze vs. Abi

While watching Takekaze this morning, I realized that if he were fifteen years younger he’d fit in quite well with the rest of the tadpole brigade. Therefore, from now on I’ll be dubbing the veteran rikishi Grampa Bullfrog. On Day 3, Grampa Bullfrog will square off against newcomer Abi, who again over-committed in his match with Ishiura yesterday and paid the price. This is another first-time matchup, and both men will be looking to secure their first win this basho.

Daieisho vs. Kagayaki

It may be too early to tell, but Kagayaki might finally be coming into his own this Basho. He looks far more focused and comfortable on the dohyo and has dominated his opponents so far. Tomorrow he takes on Daieisho, another member of the tadpoles. These two have a very long rivalry going, and have met eleven times previously. Kagayaki has won 6 of their bouts. Will Daieisho even their series, or will Kagayaki keep chugging along?

Sokokurai vs. Aminishiki

Aminishiki surprised me with his straightforward win against Chiyomaru today, and I was even more surprised that his knees survived pushing around Chiyo’s bulk! On Day 3 he meets another wily veteran in Sokokurai, who has a history of using all the tricks of the trade to outmaneuver his opponent. Wouldn’t it be something if Sokokurai pulled a henka only for Aminishiki to side step him at the bales? This should prove to be a very interesting match.

Terunofuji vs. Daishomaru

Despite Terunofuji having the size advantage, my money is on Daishomaru to win when these two meet for the first time on Day 3. Time and time again we at Tachiai have stated that Terunofuji is not well, and at this point, it’s depressing to watch the man everyone pegged as the next Yokozuna barely able to hold his own on the dohyo. At Maegashira 10, were Terunofuji to pull out he would very likely drop out of the Makuuchi division. But if he soldiers on he risks cutting his career short before he reaches his full potential. Unless he follows in Ura’s footsteps and goes down the route of medical intervention, I fear we will continue to see the mighty Kaiju get his mawashi handed to him for some time to come.

This Basho has just started and already things are heating up! Here’s hoping Day 3 is just as good, if not better!

 

Day 2 Undercard Matches to Watch

Liam R Asanoyama (朝乃山), Hatsubasho 2018, Ishiura (石浦), Sōkokurai (蒼国来), Takekaze (豪風), Terunofuji (照ノ富士) , , , , ,

Day 1 has come to a close, and what a day of sumo it was! While the first few days of any basho tend to be plagued by rusty rikishi and sloppy sumo, I was pleasantly surprised by the quality of competition today! With Leonid doing such a great job bringing readers coverage of the top matches to keep an eye on for each day, I thought I’d focus on the opposite end of the Makuuchi Banzuke and highlight a few bouts that may not make it on to the NHK highlights, but should still be quite good! So here are some undercard matches to keep an eye on for Day 2.

Ryuden vs. Daiamami

Jerking the curtain on Day 2 will be Makuuchi newcomer Ryuden and big Daiamami. Fan favorite Ryuden looked good in his first match against Nishikigi and showed no signs of top division jitters. Hoepfully he carries this confidence into his bout with foe Daiamami, who at Maegashira 17 sits all alone at the bottom of the banzuke. These two have had quite the rivalry, with Daiamami holding a 5-2 edge over Ryuden.

Asanoyama vs. Nishikigi

Are my eyes mistaken or did anyone else think Mr. Happy Asanoyama looked… angry today? Fresh off his first make koshi and finally sporting his  oicho-mage topknot, Asanoyama took control right from the tachiai and finished Daiamami off with a nice overarm throw. On Day 2 he will take on Nishikigi, and we will see if this attitude adjustment is permanent. If I’m Nishikigi, I’m hoping to see Mr. Happy on the dohyo tomorrow, because a focused, angry Asanoyama could be a fearsome opponent. These two have met three times prior, with Asanoyama leading their series 2-1.

Abi vs. Ishiura

After delighting fans with his superb shiko and nearly bending Daieisho in half on Day 1, Makuuchi newcomer Abi will try and secure his first win when he meets Ishiura on Monday. With his stocky torso and long limbs, Abi reminds me of a young Takanohana. If he can learn to use his proportions as effectively as the former Yokozuna, he has a very bright future ahead of him. However, he first needs to work on not over-committing to his thrusts, as doing so was the primary cause of his Day 1 loss. Should he overcommit tomorrow, the crafty Ishiura will make him pay for it. Ishiura holds a 4-3 lead over Abi.

Sokokurai vs. Takekaze

Sokokurai received a hearty welcome back to Makuuchi from the Tadpole committee courtesy of Daishomaru today. On Day 2 he will meet a fellow member of the old guard, Takekaze, who is also looking for his first win following a quick loss to Kagayaki. After a terrible 2017 where he recorded only two kachi koshi, one has to wonder just how much longer the 38-year-old Takekaze will go on before calling it a career. Hatsu very well could be his final Basho.

Kagayaki vs. Daishomaru

Despite a poor start, Kagayaki finished strong and looked calm and in control as he escorted Takekaze off the Dohyo. He meets fellow young gun and old foe Daishomaru on Day 2. While both of these men are talented pusher thrusters, the much larger Kagayaki has a big reach advantage, which he has used to take a 5-2 lead in their series

Terunofuji vs. Kotoyuki

Oh Terunofuji, it makes me sad to see you like this. The once mighty Ozeki, crippled by knee issues, was unable to do much against the bulky Chiyomaru. Things don’t get much easier for the Kaiju on Day 2 when he takes on Kotoyuki, who picked up his first win over Fuji’s stablemate Aminishiki Sunday. Expect Kotoyuki to go right for the jugular with his thrusting flippers, and if he can get Terunofuji to the bales his chances of winning are pretty good.

Sumo is off to a good start this year, in what may prove to be an awesome Basho!

 

Aki Banzuke Crystal Ball

lksumo Aki Basho 2017, Arawashi (荒鷲), Banzuke, Banzuke (番付), Chiyonokuni (千代の国), Debut, Endo (遠藤), Forecasting, Gōeidō (豪栄道), Hakuho (白鵬), Harumafuji (日馬富士), Hokutōfuji (北勝富士), Ichinojo (逸ノ城), Ikioi (勢), Ishiura (石浦), Juryo (十両), Kakuryu (鶴竜), Kisenosato (稀勢の里), Kotoshogiku (琴奨菊), Mitakeumi(御嶽海), Nagoya Basho 2017, promotion, San'yaku (三役), Sekiwake (関脇), Shōdai (正代直也), Sōkokurai (蒼国来), Takakeishō (貴景勝), Takanoiwa (貴ノ岩), Takarafuji (宝富士), Takayasu (高安), Takekaze (豪風), Tamawashi (玉鷲), Terunofuji (照ノ富士), Tochinoshin (栃ノ心), Tochiozan (栃煌山), Ura (宇良), Yokozuna (横綱), Ōzeki (大関)

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My Nagoya banzuke predictions turned out to be reasonably accurate. This last basho created quite a mess, and a less predictable banzuke––I don’t envy the guys who have to make the real thing, which we will get to see on August 28. I’m going to take a crack at it anyway.

Upper San’yaku

Y1 Hakuho Harumafuji
Y2 Kisenosato Kakuryu
O1 Takayasu Goeido
O2 Terunofuji  

No change in the Yokozuna pecking order after Nagoya. The real question is whether we will have more than one Yokozuna start, much less finish, the next basho. Takayasu takes over the top Ozeki spot after putting up the only reasonably solid Ozeki performance at Nagoya. Goeido and Terunofuji are both kadoban, and I hope Terunofuji can recover from his persistent injuries.

Lower San’yaku

Usually, this part of the banzuke is relatively predictable. Not so this time. Kotoshogiku drops out of San’yaku for the first time since 2010. The only certainties are that Mitakeumi will hold the S1e slot, and that Yoshikaze will remain in San’yaku after going 9-6 at Komusubi. Otherwise, there’s quite a logjam for the remaining slots, and a lot of uncertainty as to who will end up where. The contenders:

Tamawashi, who went 7-8 at Sekiwake and will drop at least to Komusubi after four tournaments at the higher rank.

Tochiozan, who had a great tournament at 12-3 as maegashira 5, defeating an Ozeki and both Sekiwake along the way.

Aoiyama, the Jun-Yusho and special prize winner, who went an amazing 13-2 as maegashira 8, but didn’t beat or even fight anyone of note until his defeat of a fading Yoshikaze on the final day.

Tochinoshin, who more than held his own in the meat grinder as maegashira 2, fighting all the big guns and defeating a Yokozuna, an Ozeki, both Sekiwake and a Komusubi on his way to a 9-6 record.

By the numbers, I would rank-order the 5 contenders for the 3 slots behind Mitakeumi as  Tochiozan, Yoshikaze, Aoiyama, Tochinoshin, Tamawashi, placing Tochiozan in the S1w slot, Yoshikaze and Aoiyama in the Komusubi slots, and leaving Tochinoshin and Tamawashi out in the cold. However, being in San’yaku confers certain privileges: Yoshikaze probably gets first dibs on the Sekiwake slot, and Tamawashi is unlikely to drop lower than Komusubi despite coming in last on the list above. Judging by past history, none of the performances were sufficiently strong to “force” the creation of extra San’yaku slots. So I’m going to go with the prediction below, much as it pains me to leave out Tochinoshin.

S Mitakeumi Yoshikaze
K Tochiozan Tamawashi

The Meat Grinder

I’m going to include the M1-M4e ranks here. Along with the San’yaku, this group makes up the “joi” or upper ranks, and regularly faces San’yaku competition (as we saw in Nagoya, the exact “joi” boundary is fuzzy, and changes during the tournament after withdrawals and, to some extent, based on performances to that point).

The meat grinder ranks actually acquitted themselves relatively well in Nagoya, unlike the disasters of the previous two basho. Tochinoshin and Hokutofuji both earned their kachi-koshi, and each deserves to be one rank higher up the banzuke, but there isn’t room. Onosho should find himself at M3 after two extremely impressive 10-5 tournaments following his Makuuchi debut. He seems unintimidated by anyone, and may hold his own despite his lack of experience. Chiyotairyu and Shohozan put up the only other solid records in the mid-maegashira ranks, and find themselves vaulting up the banzuke from M10.

M1 Tochinoshin Aoiyama
M2 Hokutofuji Kotoshogiku
M3 Onosho Chiyotairyu
M4 Shohozan

Mid-maegashira

The rest of Makuuchi was a mess of of make-koshi records, ranging from bad to worse, and some weak kachi-koshi performances among the lower ranks. This makes it difficult to come up with a fair and consistent rank order. Rikishi with 7-8 records in a weak field are especially hard to place, as their computed rank may suggest a promotion, which as far as I know is never done for kachi-koshi records. One can start by dividing the rikishi into groups of similar projected rank, and then worry about the order within each group.

Group 1, M4w-M5w: Ura, Shodai, Takakeisho.

Everyone’s favorite Ura managed a 7-8 record at M4e despite being thrown into the meat grinder prematurely and getting injured as a result. Shodai and Takakeisho each went 5-10 at M1. It would be reasonable either to place Ura at M4w, with the other two at M5, or to flip this order. Given that Ura went make-koshi, that he was under-ranked last basho, and that Shodai tends to get over-ranked, I have a feeling NSK will do the latter, despite Ura’s slightly higher computed rank.

Group 2, M6: Ichinojo, Kagayaki.

Ichinojo put up another lackluster performance, going 7-8. He should drop in rank, but there are no other reasonable contenders for M6e. Kagayaki has the best claim of the rest to M6w.

Group 3, M7-M9: Ishiura, Ikioi, Chiyoshoma, Takanoiwa, Chiyonokuni, Takarafuji.

A mix of poor records higher up the banzuke and better records quite far down the banzuke. Ikioi, Chiyoshoma, and Takanoiwa deserve bigger drops in rank, but Chiyonokuni and Takarafuji did not earn this much of a promotion. Ishiura actually has the best computed rank, and deserves the M7e slot, but since he went make-koshi (7-8) at M8w, he can’t be ranked any higher than that. The main question in this group is whether to place him at M8w, or move him below the two kachi-koshi guys, Chiyonokuni and Takarafuji. As with Ura, I’m opting for the lower rank.

Group 4, M10: Arawashi, Takekaze.

This is straightforward: M12 guys both went 8-7 and move up to M10.

Group 5, M11-M12: Daieisho, Chiyomaru, Daishomaru, Kaisei.

This order drops Daishomaru (M11w, 7-8) below Chiyomaru (M15w, 9-6), but keeps him above Kaisei, the top Juryo escapee.

M4 Shodai
M5 Takakeisho Ura
M6 Ichinojo Kagayaki
M7 Ikioi Chiyoshoma
M8 Takanoiwa Chiyonokuni
M9 Takarafuji Ishiura
M10 Arawashi Takekaze
M11 Daieisho Chiyomaru
M12 Daishomaru Kaisei

Lower maegashira, promotions, and demotions

Sadanoumi and Nishigiki earned Makuuchi stays by going kachi-koshi. Endo and Okinoumi suffer big drops but should be safe. Gagamaru earned a quick return to Juryo and should fall far down the Juryo banzuke, while Kotoyuki also definitely earned a demotion. Yutakayama and Asanoyama should definitely join Kaisei in Makuuchi, one of them at the expense of Sokokurai. This would mark a Makuuchi debut for Asanoyama. I think that Myogiryu will claim the last promotion slot, which will be vacated by Tokushoryu, and that Aminishiki will just miss out on promotion.

M13 Sadanoumi Endo
M14 Okinoumi Nishikigi
M15 Yutakayama Asanoyama
M16 Myogiryu
J1 Aminishiki Tokushoryu
J2 Sokokurai

Nagoya Day 14 Highlights

Bruce H Chiyonokuni (千代の国), Gōeidō (豪栄道), Hakuho (白鵬), Harumafuji (日馬富士), Hokutōfuji (北勝富士), Ishiura (石浦), Kotoshogiku (琴奨菊), Mitakeumi(御嶽海), Nagoya Basho 2017, Sōkokurai (蒼国来), Takayasu (高安), Takekaze (豪風), Tochinoshin (栃ノ心), Tochiozan (栃煌山), Ura (宇良), Yoshikaze (嘉風) , , , , , , ,

Takayasu-Harumafuji

It has been a rough morning in Castle Bermondsey, so I do beg forgiveness in being tardy with the update. Many of you will have seen the NHK highlight reel by now. For whatever reasons there seems to be a desire to keep Hakuho from claiming the yusho outright by now. I say this because Aoiyama has had a ridiculously easy schedule. Don’t get me wrong, he still won all of those matches fair and square. But compare this to some prior basho where anyone outside of san’yaku who was close to the leader group was given increasingly difficult matches until they fell away.

For example, you have a Maegashira 8 (Aoiyama) who is on a hot streak. So who does he get for day 14? A Komusubi? An Ozeki? Nah, lets pit him against a Maegashra 12. So there remains an outside tiny chance that Hakuho will lose to Harumafuji on day 15, and we will see The Boss square off against Aoiyama. Followed by several minutes of slow motion replay of Aoiyama’s pendulous man-mammaries swinging wildly as Hakuho batters his up and down the dohyo for sport.

In other news, Ura is now make-koshi, and it is for the best. He has many fans, and they seem to love their little wizard – he is lovable. But he was always going to go make-koshi the first time he faced the san’yaku battle fleet. In the grand scheme of things that would have been Aki, but due to injuries it was at Nagoya. He will come to rest down the banzuke, and with any luck be dominant down there and have a chance to not do further damage to that banged up knee. Trust me when I say, Ura will be back.

Selected Matches Day 14

Chiyonokuni defeats Sokokurai – Chiyonokuni’s rally is a great story coming out of Nagoya. After his turn in the meat grinder as Maegashira 1 during Natsu, he seemed to have started Nagoya down and unfocused. He was able to get his sumo together and return as strong as in the past, and lock down a winning record. Chiyonokuni is another rikishi we will likely see more good things from in the future.

Hokutofuji defeats Ishiura – Hokutofuji picks up kachi-koshi and will be a rank or two higher in Tokyo come September.

Onosho defeats Yoshikaze – Special prize for Onosho, I will predict. That would be two in a row for his first two Makuuchi basho. Yoshikaze looked like he was not quite fully spun up, and Onosho executed well.

Tochinoshin defeats Kotoshogiku – The big Georgain consigns Ojisan Kotoshogiku’s san’yaku rank to the past. Really nice execution by Tochinoshin in this match. His return to good form is a welcome development.

Tochiozan defeats Mitakeumi – No Ozeki run starting for Mitakeumi, there is always next time, but he will get to keep his Sekiwake rank. Tochiozan once again looked calm and worked his attack plan expertly.

Hakuho defeats Goeido – Goeido must beat Takayasu on day 15 to avoid the probationary kadoban status.

Harumafuji defeats Takayasu – Harumafuji once again deploys a tottari. Takayasu ends up looking even more hurt. This basho has really knocked him around, and I hope he gets a chance to heal up.