Haru Story 4 – Kotoshogiku

Kotoshogiku-struggle

A Hard Road To Glory

The current crop of Ozeki (aside from Kisenosato) have been battling chronic injuries and a general lack of performance. The poster child for this miasma is Kotoshogiku, who just more than a year ago won the 2016 Hatsu basho, breaking a years long streak of Mongolian yusho. One year later, after being kadoban 3 times, he was demoted from Ozeki; a startling turn of fortunes for a powerful and iconic rikishi.

For Haru, he is one of 3 men who hold the Sekiwake rank, an unusual arrangement. Kotoshogiku as one chance to regain his rank – he must defeat 10 opponents out of the 15 he will face in Osaka. This will be no easy feat, and frankly, it should be impossible.

By his own admission, Kotoshogiku still suffers from the same injuries to his knees and back that have sapped his performance for the past year. His signature technique is to wrap up his opponent and apply a brutal, nearly unstoppable hip pumping attack. when he is healthy, and when he can get his “hug and chug” going, he is practically unstoppable. But without a strong and healthy lower body, Kotoshogiku cannot execute his signature move.

His path is steep and difficult to make 10 wins – meaning he can only lose 5 matches. In the first week, he will face Hakuho, Kakuryu, Harumafuji, Kisenosato, Goeido and Terunofuji. Granted several of those rikishi are currently battle damaged, but he has to survive this group only losing 5. In week two he will be facing the fierce San’yaku battle fleet, which is especially potent this basho, with some of the strongest performances during Hatsu in recent memory.

The Tachiai crew loves to watch a healthy, vigorous Kotoshogiku apply his brand of sumo, but we worry those days are now just a warm memory, and one of our favorites will now face a brutal rebuke on his campaign to reclaim Ozeki glory.

Haru Story 2 — New Ozeki?

All eyes will be on Kisenosato as he makes his debut as the newest Yokozuna. Kisenosato is one of the greatest ozeki of all time. His run of 31 consecutive tournaments at the rank, averaging 10.7 wins per tournament, is a testament to his longevity and his consistency. The answer to the question, “Why hasn’t he won or been promoted before?” needs a one word answer: “Hakuho.” As Bruce wrote in “Haru Story 1,” this new yokozuna chapter of his career is the top question going forward.

However, talk will quickly turn to the diminished ozeki ranks. The door is wide open for a young up-and-comer to challenge for promotion. So, I ask of our readership, “Who will be the next Ozeki?” I’m not asking who will make the “next ozeki run” but who will actually be the next wrestler to secure a promotion? It will happen this year(…or else I will be in a lot of pain).

The leading candidates are in the poll below. Takayasu is arguably already on an ozeki run. We will need to see him carry this through summer. He leads the group of youngsters, including Mitakeumi & Shodai. He’s the most experienced of the three and has been pretty consistently in the top portion of the makuuchi for the past few years. Mitakeumi and Shodai have both made their starts in professional sumo a full 10 years after Takayasu but their rises have been meteoric. Can one of them make a quick Terunofuji-like charge for a championship?

Tamawashi’s chances likely put him at the top of the “veterans,” which I’m including Sokokurai and Kotoshogiku (whose path is obviously easiest). Tamawashi’s been around for ages. He’s as old as Sokokurai and Kotoshogiku, all born in 1984 and all three having been in sumo for more than a decade, but as recently as May 2013 he was down in Juryo. He’s been a solid wrestler but unassuming. Has he just been biding his time?

Alright, enough with me asking the questions. Here’s the one I hope you all will answer:

March Banzuke Released!

banzuke

Tachiai Formula Driven Ranking Comes Close

As expected, the banzuke for the Osaka tournament in March was published by the Japan Sumo Association this afternoon US time. Find it here. Much to our surprise, the formula defined after careful sifting of many past tournaments turned out to be fairly close in many cases. The most glaring miss was the demotion of Tochinoshin down to Maegashira 10, as opposed to rank velocity putting him only at Maegarshia 3. For future banzuke predictions, we will be adjusting the demotion scoring to try to get closer.

The other interesting wrinkle was that the new Maegarshia promoted from Juryo were inserted higher in the banzuke than expected. Some highlights

Three Sekiwake – As predicted, there are three wrestlers ranked at Sekiwake for March. This is the normal two with the addition of demoted Kotoshogiku, who is at this rank while he attempts a 10 win comeback to re-secure Ozeki.

Komosubi Power CoupleMitakeumi and Shodai at Komusubi means there are no slackers in the San’yaku this tournament. This is going to be quite thrilling, I think. It also means that the Ozeki and Yokozuna are going to be vigorously challenged.

Takekaze top Maegashira – the veteran was strong in the January opener, and how he has a chance to really deliver the goods.

Takanoiwa was promoted to Maegarshira 2, vs the Maegarshira 4 predicted by the formula. As stated in the earlier posts, there is some hand modification done (it would seem) to get the banzuke “right”.

Hokutofuji was also 2 ranks higher, Maegashira 5 vs the predicted Maegashira 7. He had a strong run in January, and perhaps the NSK thinks it’s time for him to be tested above the middle of the pack.

Ura debuts in Makuuchi at Maegashira 12, I am hoping he makes the NHK World highlight show every day.

More in depth analysis coming from Tachiai now that we begin the march toward Haru. It’s time for sumo!

Handicapping The Haru Banzuke – Part 1

banzuke-1

Sizing up San’yaku.

We still have many weeks before the start of the March sumo tournament in Osaka, with 4 weeks until competition begins, and 2 weeks before the banzuke is released. But I was told something that fascinated me – the Nippon Sumo Kyokai creates a draft banzuke for the next tournament shortly after the prior one finishes, and then tweaks it in the intervening weeks. This may be completely fictitious, but if they can do it, why can’t we?

Being a technology guy who loves sumo, I started examining the ratios between rank, win / loss and position on the subsequent banzuke. It let me a couple of formulas, which may be useful, and a really overly complex spreadsheet. That gives us some ranks to start from, and a motivation for discussing what may drive the Haru basho. I am going to break these into a series of postings that span the Makuuchi banzuke. Up today, the San’yaku group.

East Rank West
Hakuho Yokozuna Kakuryu
Harumafuji Yokozuna Kisenosato
Goeido  Ozeki  Terunofuji
Kotoshogiku Sekiwake Tamawashi
Takayasu Sekiwake
Shodai Komusubi Mitakeumi

Yokozuna

Sort of the easy group, they don’t get demoted so they swap positions from tournament to tournament. During Hatsu, Harumafuji and Kakuryu both withdrew due to injuries, and Kiseonsato is the shin-Yokozuna. This puts Hakuho back Y1e again (where he belongs). I put Kakuryu at Y1w with Harumafuji at Y2e and Japan’s new celebrity hero, Kisenosato, at the starter slot in Y2w.

Harumafuji has started making public appearances again, but he reportedly tore a thigh muscle in January, and sometimes those things are tough to heal. Kisenosato, by all reports, is training his brains out after being on a whirlwind PR tour. Part of this may be making sure he lives up to the Yokozuna rank he takes great pride in, and part of it may be tuning up Takayasu for his Ozeki run.

Ozeki

Thanks to Kisenosato’s promotion and Kotoshogiku’s demotion, there are only 2 Ozeki going into Haru, one of them is gravely injured, and one of them is kadoban and a physical basket-case. Goeido is O1e, but it’s not certain he will be recovered enough to join in competition in Osaka (where he is a home-town favorite). Given that they re-assembled his ankle with plates and screws, he may in fact be forced to retire. As of today, Goeido has been canceling his public appearances and keeping a low profile in recovery. We dearly love Goeido 2.0, but fear he may never have a chance to shine again.

Terunofuji is kadoban, and faces a real chance of demotion this time. With the Sekiwake, Komusubi and upper Maegashira all strong and looking to advance, there will be no quarter given at Haru. Terunofuji’s injuries are complex and chronic, and there may be no way for him to resume the sumo he deployed that made him (at one time) a Yokozuna contender. Today, he can only hope to heal, or find a worthy exit path.

Sekiwake

There will be at least three Sekiwake ranked sumotori in Osaka, the normal two plus the demoted Kotoshogiku, provided he does not decide to retire before hand. That gives us Kotoshogiku as Sekiwake 1e, with Tamawashi as Sekiwake at 1w. Computationally, Takayasu came out higher than Tamawashi, but seeing that Tamawashi is retaining his rank, he has a slight edge over Takayasu, who shows up at the rather exotic rank of Sekiwake 2e.

Komusubi

As describe in a prior post, the competition for a Haru San’yaku slot was fierce, with records that would have typically promoted rikishi into the upper ranks, not getting them even close to a berth in the named positions. Rounding out at Komusubi, we have Shodai falling out of Sekiwake to 1e and Mitakeumi rising on a superb Hatsu record to 1w.