Tachiai Formula Driven Ranking Comes Close
As expected, the banzuke for the Osaka tournament in March was published by the Japan Sumo Association this afternoon US time. Find it here. Much to our surprise, the formula defined after careful sifting of many past tournaments turned out to be fairly close in many cases. The most glaring miss was the demotion of Tochinoshin down to Maegashira 10, as opposed to rank velocity putting him only at Maegarshia 3. For future banzuke predictions, we will be adjusting the demotion scoring to try to get closer.
The other interesting wrinkle was that the new Maegarshia promoted from Juryo were inserted higher in the banzuke than expected. Some highlights
Three Sekiwake – As predicted, there are three wrestlers ranked at Sekiwake for March. This is the normal two with the addition of demoted Kotoshogiku, who is at this rank while he attempts a 10 win comeback to re-secure Ozeki.
Komosubi Power Couple – Mitakeumi and Shodai at Komusubi means there are no slackers in the San’yaku this tournament. This is going to be quite thrilling, I think. It also means that the Ozeki and Yokozuna are going to be vigorously challenged.
Takekaze top Maegashira – the veteran was strong in the January opener, and how he has a chance to really deliver the goods.
Takanoiwa was promoted to Maegarshira 2, vs the Maegarshira 4 predicted by the formula. As stated in the earlier posts, there is some hand modification done (it would seem) to get the banzuke “right”.
Hokutofuji was also 2 ranks higher, Maegashira 5 vs the predicted Maegashira 7. He had a strong run in January, and perhaps the NSK thinks it’s time for him to be tested above the middle of the pack.
Ura debuts in Makuuchi at Maegashira 12, I am hoping he makes the NHK World highlight show every day.
More in depth analysis coming from Tachiai now that we begin the march toward Haru. It’s time for sumo!