San’yaku (三役)

Hatsu Basho Wrap Up and Predictions

lksumo Abi (阿炎), Aminishiki (安美錦), Arawashi (荒鷲), Asanoyama (朝乃山), Banzuke (番付), bcb, Chiyomaru, Daiamami (大奄美), Daieisho (大栄翔), Endo (遠藤), Forecasting, Gōeidō (豪栄道), Hakuho (白鵬), Haru Basho 2018 (Osaka), Hatsubasho 2018, Hokutōfuji (北勝富士), Ichinojo (逸ノ城), Ikioi (勢), Ishiura (石浦), Juryo (十両), Kachi Koshi, Kakuryu (鶴竜), Kisenosato (稀勢の里), Kotoshogiku (琴奨菊), Kyokutaisei, Make Kochi, Mitakeumi(御嶽海), Miyogiryu, Nishikigi, Okinoumi (隠岐の海), promotion, Ryuden (竜電), San'yaku (三役), Sekiwake (関脇), Shohozan, Shōdai (正代直也), Sōkokurai (蒼国来), Takakeishō (貴景勝), Takarafuji (宝富士), Takayasu (高安), Takekaze (豪風), Tochinoshin (栃ノ心), Yokozuna (横綱), Yoshikaze (嘉風), Yutakayama, Ōnoshō (阿武咲), Ōzeki (大関)

Lift

What a great basho with an unexpected champion. Below, I will go through the various tiers of Makuuchi (and upper Juryo) and assess the performances, as well as what they likely mean for the Haru banzuke reshuffle (as usual, a full “banzuke crystal ball” post will follow once I’ve had a chance to more carefully digest the results).

The Yokozuna

At Haru, we should see Kakuryu atop the banzuke, followed by Hakuho and Kisenosato. Although he faded with 4 straight losses after a 10-0 start before recovering to beat Goeido on senshuraku, Kakuryu did enough to justify his rank. I would give him a solid B. Hakuho (re)injured his toes, and gets an Incomplete. Kisenosato had to pull out due to underperformance rather than injury after racking up 4 losses in 5 days and handing out 3 kinboshi. It’s not clear what the way forward is for him. A generous D–.

The Ozeki

The two Ozeki will swap sides in Osaka, with Takayasu fighting from the more prestigious East side. His 12-3 record is by far his most impressive in 4 tournaments as Ozeki, although he has to wonder what might have been in this wide-open basho. Any tsuna talk is highly premature, but if he can build on this performance, we may hear it in the near future. A–

The other Ozeki, Goeido, looked strong out of the gate but then went 4-7 over the last 11 days, ending with a minimal kachi-koshi. He avoided going kadoban by the narrowest of margins. A gentleman’s C.

The Old Lower Sanyaku

This highly touted group did not exactly distinguish itself, only managing 23 wins among the four of them. As a result, we should see almost complete turnover in the Sekiwake/Komusubi ranks. The one holdover is Sekiwake Mitakeumi, who started 7-0 but then went 1-7 the rest of the way to maintain his rank by the narrowest of margins. Some of this can be chalked up to tougher second-week opposition, but it’s hard to excuse losses to Arawashi, Shodai, and Okinoumi. This is Mitakeumi’s 6th consecutive tournament in Sanyaku, all of them alternating 9-6 and 8-7 records. He will have to find another gear before the often-mentioned Ozeki run can materialize. Still, he stays at Sekiwake. B–

The rest of the group put up disastrous performances. Instead of starting his own Ozeki run, Sekiwake Tamawashi went 6-9 and will drop out of Sanyaku. It’s not clear what was wrong with his sumo, as he looked like his own formidable self on some days, and went meekly on others. The good news is that he should only drop to M1, and will have a chance to fight his way back up with a solid record in Osaka. C–

Shin-Komusubi Takakeisho had a typical shin-Komusubi rough tournament, going 5-10. He should stay in the joi in Osaka, falling to around M3. C– His friend and fellow Komusubi Onosho faired even worse in his second go-round at the rank, picking up only 4 wins before withdrawing with an injury. No miracle kachi-koshi finish this time. He should drop to around M5. D+

The New Lower Sanyaku

Joining Mitakeumi at Sekiwake will be the yusho winner, Tochinoshin. While there are many reasons to doubt he can replicate his amazing performance going forward, I’ll go out on a limb and say that if he accumulates 11-12 wins in each of the next two tournaments, we’ll see him at Ozeki. A+ Also rejoining the named ranks with a bang at Komusubi is Ichinojo, who really turned things around in the last two tournaments. If he can continue to bring convincing sumo to the dohyo, his size and skill could also see him at Ozeki before too long, although of course this is what was said about him after his amazing Makuuchi debut in 2014. A

Who gets the other Komusubi slot? The man who probably gained the most on senshuraku, sumo Elvis, Chiyotairyu. The big guy needed to win on the last day and have both Kotoshogiku and Endo lose, and this is exactly how things played out. The last and only time Chiyotairyu was ranked this high was also in 2014, and he’s spent most of the intervening time among the lower maegashira ranks, with 3 Juryo stints, so it’s good to see him climb the mountain again. A

The Joi

The upper maegashira ranks in Osaka will see more permutation than turnover. Based on the thinness and health issues of the Sanyaku, I’m going to generously extend the joi boundary down to M5. These ranks should look something like this:

M1 Tamawashi (S) Endo (M5)
M2 Arawashi (M4) Kotoshogiku (M2)
M3 Takakeisho (K) Takarafuji (M6)
M4 Shodai (M4) Shohozan (M9)
M5 Chiyomaru (M9) Onosho (K)

In addition to the aforementioned fallen Sanyaku rikishi, we have Kotoshogiku and Shodai treading water with their minimal make-koshi records and a pair of C‘s. Endo (A–) and Arawashi (B+) move up within these ranks. Takarafuji (B+) moves up from just below the joi, while Shohozan (A–) and Chiyomaru (A–) make some of the biggest moves up the board.

Dropping out of these ranks are Hokutofuji and Yoshikaze, who both had disastrous 4-11 tournaments, good for a pair of D‘s, along with Okinoumi (C–).

Makuuchi Promotions and Demotions

As has already been mentioned, the 8 lowest-ranked rikishi all earned winning records. For Ishiura, Asanoyama, Nishikigi, and Daiamami, this saved them from demotion to Juryo, but without much of a cushion for Haru. Daieisho, Yutakayama, and the newcomers Abi and Ryuden should move up into solid mid-maegashira territory. Yutakayama in particular is to be commended for turning things around in his third Makuuchi tournament by going 9-6, after his previous two appearances each ended in 4-11 records and quick returns to Juryo.

Dropping down into the M13-M17 ranks and fighting for survival in Osaka will be Ikioi and Sokokurai, who narrowly staved off demotion.

As a result of the solid performances at the bottom of the banzuke, not a lot of slots will be open for promotion. Dropping down to Juryo are Terunofuji, who desperately needs to take a page from Tochinoshin’s book, and Aminishiki. Also joining them will be Takekaze, the only rikishi among those who desperately needed a senshuraku win to not get it. Their slots should be taken by Myogiryu, Hidenoumi, and most likely Aoiyama, with Kyokutaisei just missing out on making his Makuuchi debut despite doing enough for promotion in most tournaments.

Kyushu Midpoint – Comments And Thoughts

Bruce H Gōeidō (豪栄道), Hakuho (白鵬), Harumafuji (日馬富士), Hokutōfuji (北勝富士), Ichinojo (逸ノ城), Kakuryu (鶴竜), Kisenosato (稀勢の里), Kyushu Basho 2017, Mitakeumi(御嶽海), San'yaku (三役), Takakeishō (貴景勝), Takayasu (高安), Tamawashi (玉鷲), Yoshikaze (嘉風) , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

It Was The Dog

As frequent readers will have noticed, several of our newer contributors are continuing to post amazing content to the site, and I am enjoying it so much, I have stepped back a bit and let them run. Though the Harumafuji scandal personally makes me rather sad, it turned into absolute blockbuster readership for Tachiai, and I would like to extend my thanks and welcome to all new readers.

We are now at the half way point of Kyushu, and a handful of rikishi are worthy of discussion. Let’s start at the top.

Hakuho – Clearly he is primed for yusho #40, and it’s now his to lose. True, he has his toughest opponents ahead, but right now he is dominating each and every match with his typical polished ease.

Kisenosato – As we guessed, he is back at least one basho too early. He has not really had a lot of sparring practice, and he is seriously at risk of going make-koshi at this time. The NSK did admonish him to wait and return only when he was ready to deliver Yokozuna grade sumo. Right now he is closer to upper Maegashira. I would rate him at only 70% of pre-injury Kisenosato, but I think he can get closer to 90% by Hatsu. It all comes down to returning to a maniacal training regimen with Takayasu, who is also in need.

Harumafuji – The story is becoming more convoluted as time marches on. Our earlier predictions that it might in fact be less sinister than original reports now look like they could pan out, and there is going to be a large amount of splatter that hits many parties involved in this. While things are not active (aside from the investigation moving forward), be aware that unless it’s a dire emergency, the NSK will leave further action until after the Kyushu basho is complete.

Kakuryu – One has to wonder if his involvement in the Takanoiwa incident may have played a role in his decision to sit out Kyushu.

Goeido – He continues to struggle with his identity. When he attacks with vigor, he wins; when he lets the other rikishi set the tone and tempo of the bout, he most likely loses. This is the gap that Goeido must cross if he would ever wish to stake a claim to his own tsuna. Until then, his fans have to hope that he stays true to his 2.0 self and remembers to attack and drive forward.

Takayasu – He’s going to clear kadoban, it’s fairly certain, but he’s only about 85% of his pre-injury self. So my prescription for him is to get cozy with his water bag, battle Kisenosato daily post-basho, and to sleep against his favorite, most comfortable teppo pole until new-years. I am sure your deshi will bring you KFC at Christmas (If not, let me know and I will fly over and get it for you), so revert to your gym-rat ways and go crazy again.

Mitakeumi – That toe is clearly giving him fits, and he may go kyujo once he gets his 8. Not really too much awesome from him this time, we just need him to heal up and come back at Hatsu like the future Ozeki he is.

Yoshikaze – Hot or cold with the Berserker. Thus far more cold than hot, and we have to hope he can cobble together his 8 before next Sunday.

Kotoshogiku – Komusubi is a tough rank, you get to give a lot of wins to the upper San’yaku, and Kotoshogiku is living that now. He stays in good cheer, and gives it his all each day, but his all is now painful and stiff, and possibly covered with ben-gay.

Onosho – Hey, don’t sweat this basho, kid. Komusubi is ancient Yayoi for “punching bag with legs”, it’s part of the welcome to being a serious sumotori, so have some fun with it. Consider using the Ishiura defense as chicks dig the loose mawashi, and play up the fact you look like a hippy-hop ball, possibly by commissioning your own line of plush figures. Also, try to get your weight centered over your feet, everyone knows you lean in hard, and they are now dialed into the fact you are not a weeble (as in, you do fall down).

Tamawashi – he wants back in san’yaku in a big way. He’s going to take your chanko and make you watch him eat it. Only possible defense might be to chase him away with a beer bottle. (Too soon?) [Yes. –PinkMawashi]

Takakeisho – This tadpole is having a great basho, if he can stay healthy he is going to be part of what pressures some of the old guys to hit intai. He’s shown surprising strength and fighting form against rikishi that intimidate his peers. He seems to not pay much mind to any of it, and just focuses on winning.

Hokutofuji – After a weak showing at Aki (most likely due to injuries), Kaio’s doppleganger is hell on wheels so far in Kyushu. He is showing fantastic sumo, and a fearless will to always drive forward. Should he manage to become more consistent and more efficient in his sumo, he could become a San’yaku mainstay.

Ichinojo – He is large, and I always say that being enormous is not an actual sumo strategy.  But when you are his size, if you get genki and can bring some actual sumo chops to a match, there is little that can stop you. Too early to say that he’s turned a corner, but it’s great to not cringe when you see him mount the dohyo.

Arawashi – While it’s not widely discussed, Arawashi was secretly upgraded by Elon Musk, and is now completely Tesla powered. This makes him not only a foreign born rikishi, but the first cyborg rikishi as well. Please be aware the NSK wants only one controversy at a time, so for the duration no one is talking about it (except your plucky crew at Tachiai).

Okinoumi – This guy has a persistent abdominal injury that can’t be healed, it can only be surgically repaired. When they do, his sumo career is probably over. So he muddles on and does the best he can, usually in varying degrees of pain ranging from “dear god, why?” to “kill me now”. So when you see him 6-1 after the first week, you have to feel happy for the man.

Aminishiki – Why not close out the list with Uncle Sumo? What a triumphant return to Makuuchi for a man who does not give up until he wants to. This guy is showing us sumo that is borderline magical in its efficiency and simplicity. Thank you for holding on to your dream sir, we should all consider following your example.

Kyushu Banzuke Crystal Ball

lksumo Arawashi (荒鷲), Banzuke, Banzuke (番付), Chiyonokuni (千代の国), Debut, Endo (遠藤), Forecasting, Gōeidō (豪栄道), Hakuho (白鵬), Harumafuji (日馬富士), Hokutōfuji (北勝富士), Ichinojo (逸ノ城), Ikioi (勢), Ishiura (石浦), Juryo (十両), Kakuryu (鶴竜), Kisenosato (稀勢の里), Kotoshogiku (琴奨菊), Kyushu Basho 2017, Mitakeumi(御嶽海), promotion, San'yaku (三役), Sekiwake (関脇), Shōdai (正代直也), Takakeishō (貴景勝), Takanoiwa (貴ノ岩), Takarafuji (宝富士), Takayasu (高安), Takekaze (豪風), Tamawashi (玉鷲), Terunofuji (照ノ富士), Tochinoshin (栃ノ心), Tochiozan (栃煌山), Ura (宇良), Yokozuna (横綱), Yoshikaze (嘉風), Ōzeki (大関)

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Like every tournament, Wacky Aki will have reshuffled the wrestlers’ ranks. The new banzuke for Kyushu won’t be announced until October 30, two weeks before the start of the basho on November 12. But if you want to get a good idea of where your favorite rikishi will end up being ranked, without having to wait a month, you’ve come to the right place. The banzuke forecast below should be accurate to within one or at most two ranks. There’s one real wildcard this time around, where the forecast might miss wildly, but we’ll get to that later in the post.

Upper San’yaku

Y1 Harumafuji Hakuho
Y2 Kisenosato Kakuryu
O1 Goeido Takayasu

As the only Yokozuna to start, finish, and win the tournament, Harumafuji takes over the top spot, switching places with Hakuho. The other three Yokozuna retain their rank order relative to each other. As the only Ozeki to finish Aki, as runner-up no less, Goeido takes over the O1e rank, switching places with Takayasu, who will be kadoban at Kyushu. And of course, we are down to two Ozeki: Terunofuji will drop to Sekiwake for Kyushu, with one chance to reclaim Ozeki status with double-digit wins. Whether or not he’ll be healthy enough to participate, much less get double-digit wins, is an open question; the same goes for Takayasu, who will need 8 wins to retain his rank.

Lower San’yaku

S1 Mitakeumi Yoshikaze
S2 Terunofuji
K Kotoshogiku Onosho

Mitakeumi and Yoshikaze both did just enough at Aki to retain their rank, each going 8-7. They will return as Sekiwake 1e and Sekiwake 1w, respectively. Terunofuji appears at the slightly unusual rank of S2e. Both Tamawashi (7-8) and Tochiozan (6-9) will vacate their Komusubi slots after failing to get their kachi-koshi. Among the higher-placed rank-and-filers, only Kotoshogiku and Onosho earned double-digit wins, and will take over the Komusubi slots.

Upper Maegashira

M1 Tamawashi Chiyotairyu
M2 Takakeisho Tochiozan
M3 Hokutofuji Shohozan
M4 Chiyonokuni Ichinojo
M5 Takarafuji Arawashi

This group is a mix of upper-ranked rikishi who are dropping in rank, but not very far (Tamawashi, Tochiozan, and Hokutofuji) and those in the upper half of the maegashira ranks with the strongest performances at Aki. Depending on the health and participation of the San’yaku ranks in Kyushu, some or all of this group will make up the joi. A case can easily be made for switching the positions of Hokutofuji and Shohozan.

Mid-Maegashira

M6 Chiyoshoma Daishomaru
M7 Tochinoshin Shodai
M8 Takanoiwa Chiyomaru
M9 Endo Ikioi
M10 Daieisho Kaisei
M11 Aoiyama Asanoyama

Twice as many kachi-koshi as make-koshi records in this group. Daishomaru, Endo, and Asanoyama make big jumps up the banzuke after earning double-digit wins at Aki. Conversely, the injured Tochinoshin and Aoiyama take big tumbles. This group also contains the underperforming Shodai and Ikioi. A case can be made for dropping Shodai (and, less likely, Tochinoshin) below Takanoiwa and Chiyomaru, and for dropping Ikioi below Daieisho and Kaisei.

Lower Maegashira

M12 Kagayaki Takekaze
M13 Okinoumi Aminishiki
M14 Kotoyuki Ura
M15 Nishikigi Myogiryu
M16 Daiamami

This group contains one of the worst performers at Aki, Kagayaki, as well as two rikishi who narrowly held on to their places in Makuuchi: Okinoumi and Nishikigi. It also contains the four rikishi who should be promoted from Juryo: top-division returnees Aminishiki, Kotoyuki and Myogiryu, as well as the amusingly named newcomer Daiamami Genki—may he live up to his family given name in his Makuuchi debut. These four take the places of rikishi demoted to Juryo: Ishiura, Tokushoryu, Yutakayama, and Sadanoumi.

Now, the wildcard: our favorite pink-sporting rikishi, Ura, who badly aggravated his already injured knee and had to drop out after two days and only one win. Based on a very limited history of similar cases, I placed him at M14w. I’d be surprised to see him ranked much higher, and he could be ranked as low as M16e, or even demoted from Makuuchi altogether, in favor of marginal promotion candidate Homarefuji. Of course, Ura’s participation in Kyushu is a huge question mark at best, but being ranked in the top division would limit the rate at which he drops down the banzuke if he sits out one or more tournaments.

For a Juryo forecast, I don’t think I can do any better than point you to predictions made on SumoForum by frequent Tachiai commenter Asashosakari and others.

Aki Day 12 Highlights

Bruce H Aki Basho 2017, Arawashi (荒鷲), Chiyonokuni (千代の国), Endo (遠藤), Gōeidō (豪栄道), Harumafuji (日馬富士), Hokutōfuji (北勝富士), Kotoshogiku (琴奨菊), Mitakeumi(御嶽海), San'yaku (三役), Shōdai (正代直也), Takakeishō (貴景勝), Takanoiwa (貴ノ岩), Takarafuji (宝富士), Tamawashi (玉鷲), Yoshikaze (嘉風) , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Goeido-Pissed

The Makuuchi yusho race changed subtly today, in that tournament leader Goeido lost his match to Shohozan, but the nearest competitor, Chiyotairyu, lost as well. But now there is an enormous group of rikishi at 8 wins that are two behind the leader. This has opened the tiniest of chances that something wild could happen in the final three days of this basho. The odds of that are still remote. There are 10 rikishi, including Yokozuna Harumafuji and Sekiwake Yoshikaze, who are 8-4 as of today. Goeido will face Harumafuji on the final day, and the outcome of that bout is not predictable.

Several rikishi secured their kachi-koshi today, including Endo, Arawashi, Daieisho, Onosho, Kotoshogiku and Yokozuna Harumafuji. Hokutofuji and Yutakayama both reached 8 losses, locking in a make-koshi and demotion of some sort for November’s Kyushu basho. In the case of Yutakayama, his second trip to Makuuchi did not pan out, and he will likely return to Juryo to try again.

In Juryo, there are 4 rikishi with 8 wins as of the end of day 12, and an additional 8 rikishi one win off the pace at 7. As has been the case in the past few tournaments, the Juryo squad seems to be very evenly balanced, and most of the scores cluster closely around the 7-8 / 8-7 median. Many fans are delighted that Aminishiki aka “Uncle Sumo”, is one of the co-leaders for the yusho. Ranked at Juryo 2, he has a very good shot of being on the promotion train for Makuuchi.

Highlight Matches

Endo defeats Sadanoumi – Watching this match, it’s clear that Endo is still a bit tender on the ankle that has been repaired. He picks up his kachi-koshi and has another couple of months to get more strength in that ankle. Sadanoumi really has not been able to generate much offense, and we can attribute that to the injury that had him kyujo for the first week.

Yutakayama defeated by Chiyomaru – Chiyomaru owned this match the entire way, and is fighting well for a mid-level Maegashira. Yutakayama is make-koshi and headed down to Juryo after his second attempt to land in Makuuchi seems to have failed.

Okinoumi defeats Takanoiwa – Out of the tachiai, Takanoiwa landed but could not hold a shallow left hand grip. Okinoumi, who seems to be feeling well enough to put some effort into his sumo, took control and delivered the win via tsukiotoshi.

Arawashi defeats Asanoyama – This was a great match, and both rikishi put a huge effort into their sumo today, and this battle raged on for a good amount of time. Probably one of the better matches today.

Chiyoshoma defeats Nishikigi – A close ending to their first attempt resulted in a monoii, and a rematch. The rematch resulted in Nishikigi being stunned for a few seconds after a tsuppari knocked him to the clay. It makes me wonder if someone checks these guys afterwards to see if they have a concussion that needs to be addressed.

Kaisei defeats Takarafuji – I really must compliment Kaisei for a vast improvement to his sumo this year. I think the weight loss has helped him quite a bit, and he took care of Takarafuji today.

Onosho defeats Chiyonokuni – When Chiyonokuni is in good health, he really delivers some exciting sumo. The match was quick, but intense, with Onosho taking command straight at the tachiai and driving Chiyonokuni back. Onosho now kachi-koshi and will be back in the joi for November.

Aoiyama defeats Kagayaki – The man-mountain Aoiyama is getting into his groove finally, and really delivers a massive pounding to Kagayaki, who desperately needs to regroup.

Kotoshogiku defeats Chiyotairyu – Blink and you will miss it! Kotoshogiku deftly tossed Chiyotairyu like he was taking out the trash. Kotoshogiku kachi-koshi with this win, and it will be quite awesome to see if he can re-ascend to San’yaku for November.

Mitakeumi defeats Shodai – Mitakeumi has been dangerously close to a make-koshi trajectory, but today’s win over Shodai helps his cause quite a bit. If both Mitakeumi and Yoshikaze end up with winning records, we will see another banzuke with significant contention for the San’yaku slots.

Yoshikaze defeats Takakeisho – Great to see Yoshikaze overcome Takakeisho’s “Wave Action Tsuppari” attack. With Yoshikaze now safely in winning record territory, we know at least one Sekiwake will be staying put for Kyushu. Takakeisho needs to mix things up a bit, as his single dominant attack form will be decoded, and the countermeasure to it adopted by all.

Shohozan defeats Goeido – This would have been a massive shift in the yusho race if it had not been that every chaser lost as well. Goeido remains two ahead of everyone. They had a tough time getting started, with “Big Guns” Shohozan jumping the tachiai twice. The Ozeki’s two attempt at pulling Shohozan down left him off balance, and Shohozan exploited that mistake in a blink of an eye. Great effort by both today.

Harumafuji defeats Tamawashi – Straightforward bout, but it’s clear that Harumafuji is in pain with every step. With this win Harumafuji is kachi-koshi, and can make a strong case for keeping the scissors in the drawer.