As reported today in the Japan Times, the Sumo Association has agreed that sumo rising star Asanoyama is to be promoted to Ozeki, sumo’s second highest rank. In comments following the completion of the Haru basho in Osaka, the shimpan committee had broadly signaled that they would vote in favor to promote Asanoyama. There will be a formal meeting held on Wednesday to compile the May banzuke, which will mark the official promotion. Following this meeting, representatives from the association will travel to the Takasago stable to announce the promotion. For fans who have seen this in the past, such as Tochinoshin and Takakeisho, the Asanoyama, Takasago oyakata and Takasago okamisan will all be in formal clothes, and will assume a saikeirei bow, and accept the promotion.
Although Asanoyama feel short of the customary 33 wins over 3 tournaments from San’yaku (he ended the run with 32), the NSK has decided that sumo needs to replenish the upper ranks, and have wisely bestowed Ozeki on this talented young man. With the only remaining Ozeki hurt, and now kadoban, and both Yokozuna nearing the point of retirement, a strong, healthy and talented younger rikishi is a perfect promotion candidate. We think that we will see at least one more top rank promotion this year, and likely at least one more next year as the old guard continues to fade, and the next generation of kanban rikishi take their places.
Asanoyama won his first yusho in may of 2019 from Maegashira 8, finishing 12-3, and picking up 2 special prizes. He also is the only rikishi to ever be awarded the Trump Cup. Since then he has picked up 2 more special prizes and a jun-yusho. He has scored double digits in 5 of the last 6 basho. Tachiai predicts that if he can stay healthy and keep his body working well, Asanoyama will make a fine Ozeki.
With the results of the Haru basho in the books, we can start to forecast how the rankings will get reshuffled for the next tournament. As usual, I will write a full banzuke prediction post once I’ve digested the results, but we can look at the general outlines now.
Yokozuna and Ozeki
The senshuraku clash between Hakuho and Kakuryu was not only for the yusho, but also for banzuke position. With his victory, Hakuho will once again be ranked on the more prestigious East side for the 53rd time in his superlative career.
Word on the street is that Asanoyama will officially get the nod to ascend to sumo’s second-highest rank on Wednesday. He’ll join the incumbent (now kadoban) Takakeisho, and as a newcomer to the rank, will be placed on the West side. Oh, and the presence of two bona fide Ozeki on the banzuke means that Kakuryu won’t have to fill in as a Yokozuna/Ozeki again next time.
Sekiwake and Komusubi
West Sekiwake Shodai (8-7) successfully defended his rank, and should slide over to the East side to fill the opening created by Asanoyama’s impending promotion. Both incumbent Komusubi will fall out of the named ranks—Hokutofuji after a disastrous 4-11 tournament and Endo as a result of a surprisingly lackluster final-day loss that dropped his record to 7-8. This means that we need one new Sekiwake and two new Komusubi.
Two candidates are clear: M3w Mitakeumi (10-4), who I believe will be the West Sekiwake despite fading to a 1-3 finish. Mitakeumi returns to san’yaku after a two-basho absence that ended a streak of 17 consecutive tournaments in the named ranks. His 19th appearance in lower san’yaku will tie him with Goeido for 7th most this century. M1e Daieisho (8-7) will make his second appearance at Komusubi after a one-basho absence.
Who will be West Komusubi? This comes down to the breakout man of the tournament, M9e Takanosho (12-3), and an old steady hand, M2e Okinoumi (8-7). Takanosho has a slightly stronger case “by the numbers”, but I believe that the large disparity in rank, Okinoumi’s tougher schedule, and his track record of six past san’yaku appearances (he was last Sekiwake at Kyushu 2016) will see the veteran get the nod.
Upper Maegashira
Which rank-and-filers will get to battle the named ranks in the next tournament? The term “joi-jin” (or just “joi”) is often used to describe the upper rankers and the maegashira who serve as their opponents. Typically, this group contains the top 16 men on the banzuke, although the line is blurred by withdrawals, avoidance of same-heya matchups, etc. In any case, with the san’yaku ranks set to grow to eight, rikishi ranked M1-M4 will be firmly in this group.
I’ll try to work out the most likely order later, but the top four maegashira should be Endo, Takanosho, Yutakayama, and Onosho. M3 should be filled by Takarafuji and Kagayaki (or possibly Kiribayama). There are four contenders for M4: Kiribayama (or Kagayaki), Abi, who could hang on to the current M4w with his minimal 7-8 make-koshi, Hokutofuji, and Aoiyama, who could rise all the way from M13 with his 11-4 final tally (not surprisingly, he and Takanosho will be making the biggest leaps up the rankings).
Makuuchi/Juryo Exchanges
While the final-day results greatly clarified the picture toward the top of the banzuke, they left the exchange situation a bit muddy. Three demotions are certain: Tsurugisho, Daiamami, and Azumaryu. Tochiozan also appears set to drop to Juryo, with his final-day victory being too little, too late. And the Juryo results (and the disappearance of the M18 rank) will likely force down Meisei after he was unable to secure his kachi-koshi on the final day.
That’s 5 likely open slots in the top division, but there are 6 strong promotion cases in Juryo. J1e Kotoyuki (8-7) has the weakest case numerically, but the strongest historically: the top man in Juryo has failed to get promoted with an 8-7 record only twice in roughly the past 50 years. J2w Wakatakakage (10-5) and the Juryo champion J6e Kotoshoho (12-2) should be locks for promotion, the former returning after his promising debut was interrupted by injury and the latter making a much-anticipated debut of his own. It’s not completely clear whether J3e Terunofuji (10-5) is head of J5e Kotoeko (11-4), who has one more win from two ranks below, but both should have strong enough cases to force down Meisei.
That’s 5 up and 5 down. Who else could be at risk? Recent demotions of absent M3 Tomokaze and Kotoyuki to J1e strongly suggest that M1 Takayasu (0-5-10) is safe, as does the fact that the last time an M1 was demoted was 1798! M15w Chiyomaru (7-6-2) should also be safe, especially given that his three-day absence was involuntary. That leaves one Makuuchi man on the bubble: M14w Nishikigi (6-9). Nishikigi has a history of escaping demotion with records that could easily send him down, and he may do so yet again: J4e Tobizaru (10-5) is likely one win short of making his own top-division debut after final-day victories by Nishikigi, Kotoyuki (by default!), Kotoshoho, and Kotoeko. That’s a lot of results to go against you.
Juryo/Makushita Exchanges
As I noted yesterday, the Juryo demotions seem to be set at three—Yago, Asagyokusei and Tomokaze—while there are four promotable rikishi at the top of Makushita: Ms2w Kotodaigo (4-3), Ms3e Asabenkei (6-1), Ms3w Fujiazuma (5-2), and Ms4e Chiyonoo, who moved to 5-2 today after his defeat of J10 Takagenji. Asabenkei and Fujiazuma should join the sekitori ranks for sure, while Chiyonoo’s one extra win might also jump him over higher-ranked Kotodaigo. I don’t think the banzuke committee will over-demote Mitoryu or Chiyonoumi to free up a 4th slot for one of them. In any case, while we’ll have to wait for the rest of the banzuke to be released on April 27 (Japan time), we’ll find out about the Juryo promotions on Wednesday.
Along with the yusho, there are a number of special prizes awarded to rikishi with notable matches or excellent scores over the 15 day tournament. They come with a nice trophy, a certificate, and most importantly money, as in ¥2,000,000! For Haru, we have these winners:
He finished 9-6, but along the way he put dirt on Yokozuna Hakuho. Bouncing back from injury and a trip through Juryo, Onosho has been hit or miss since 2018, but finally seems to have his sumo together. He’s won the Kanto-sho 3 times, but this is his first Shukun-sho.
Takanosho – Kanto-sho (Fighting Spirit Prize)
He finished at 12-3 from Maegashira 9, and really surprised fans and opponents too. A stable mate of Takakeisho, he spent a long time in Makushita as Masunosho before making Sekitori and taking the Takanosho shikona. Only time will tell if this is his new normal or he just caught fire in the empty stadium in Osaka.
Aoiyama – Gino-sho (Technique Prize)
Big Dan held the sole lead for the yusho for a time in week 2, and showed some of his best sumo in a year. He has previously won the Kanto-Sho 3 times, but this is his first Gino-sho. He is likely to get a big promotion in the next banzuke, but always struggles above Maegashira 6.
A smashing ending to the March tournament, it was a Yokozuna battle in the final match of the final day. Both of them fought well, and Hakuho prevailed. Congratulations to the dai-Yokozuna, Hakuho Sho, “The Boss” for his 44th yusho. In some future age, there may be a rikishi that can equal or succeed what Hakuho has done, but I can’t conceive of a time or a rikishi who could best the marks and records he continues to exceed.
It seems that with his day 15 win over Takakeisho, Asanoyama has been deemed worth of Ozeki promotion. This is excellent news as with a single, injured and now kadoban Ozeki, and two remaining Yokozuna both nearing the end of their careers, it was high time to promote someone. I recall that for both Tochinoshin and Takakeisho they held the promotion back for one tournament to check for “good performance”. They both made the cut the next basho, but I am glad that they were flexible given the situation. The new Ozeki is young, healthy and strong. He is a convert to yotsu-zumo and he continues to gain skill. Long time readers will note the tag, “Asanoyama ❤️ Sumo” that has adorned some posts featuring him. When he first entered the top division, he would bring the same positive attitude to the dohyo no matter who he faced. He could get completely whacked and thrown into the shimpan, he would mount the dohyo to bow, and you could just read his face. “Man, what a great day to do sumo! I can’t wait for tomorrow.” With that kind of attitude, there was little doubt he would find his way higher in time. Congratulation to the new Ozeki.
Highlight Matches
Ishiura defeats Aoiyama – Nice up and duck tachiai from Ishiura, it bought him some time as Aoiyama had to shift to chase him down, and delayed Big Dan’s opening attack. As Aoiyama closed in, Ishiura deftly landed a left hand grip, and kept the match on his terms. What a surprise to see these two go chest to chest, and an even bigger surprise to see Ishiura prevail with a yorikiri. Ishiura finishes Haru 9-6.
Terutsuyoshi defeats Daiamami – Second match in a row where the smaller rikishi opts for a mawashi battle, and scores a win. Just seconds into the match, Terutsuyoshi has morozashi, and hapless Daiamami can find no way to use his superior height and mass to any advantage. Terutsuyoshi finishes Haru 9-6
Shimanoumi defeats Chiyotairyu – Chiyotairyu gave it a strong start, but when it was clear that Shimanoumi had the match in hand, Chiyotairyu eased up and took his 7th loss. Shimanoumi finishes Haru at 9-6.
Nishikigi defeats Sadanoumi – An uncharacteristically slow tachiai from Sadanoumi, and he allowed Nishikigi to land a left hand inside grip that quickly turned to morozashi. Nishikigi engaged a lift-and-shift attack for the win. Both finish Haru at 6-9.
Kotonowaka defeats Tochinoshin – A huge back and forth battle, which saw Tochinoshin struggle for grip and body placement. He allowed Kotonowaka to box him in early, and found himself without many paths to execute offensive sumo. The match ended when Tochinoshin bucked his hips to grab the left hand outside grip, and it looks like that bandaged right knee collapsed. Painful sumo to watch, without a doubt. Kotonowaka ends Haru with 9-6.
Kagayaki defeats Meisei – Our first Darwin match goes to Kagayaki. Mr Fundamentals kept Meisei centered, and kept his feet heavy, thrusting at all times. It’s the kind of sumo that we see from Kagayaki when he is dialed in, and he finishes Haru 8-7. This is his 3rd kachi-koshi tournament in a row, and the highest rank he has ever had a winning record over 15 days.
Tochiozan defeats Myogiryu – It does my heart good to see Tochiozan muster one last win in the top division before he possibly ends up in Juryo for the next tournament. To be honest, it was as much Myogiryu’s slippiotoshi as anything Tochiozan did, but the win still counts.
Ryuden defeats Azumaryu – Azumaryu had the early advantage in this match, but could not finish it in the opening moments. It was great to see Ryuden battle back, and inch at a time and slowly gain control of the fight. Really nice endurance, persistence and incremental sumo from Ryuden today. He finishes Haru 6-9.
Abi defeats Kaisei – Abi went for the double arm thrust, and quickly discovered Issac Newton was in control of this match. The mass that is Kaisei was in motion, and no amount of force that Abi could muster would have a meaningful effect. But Abi deftly moved aside and let momentum do 90% of the work, finishing Kaisei with a well placed shove. Abi finishes Haru 7-8.
Enho defeats Ikioi – This was Ikioi’s first encounter with Enho’s pixie magic, and for the uninitiated, it can be quite the shock. That shallow right hand grip look like it was painfully close to Ikioi’s dangly parts, and the fact that it was the subject of a torque and pull my have given Ikioi a moment of grave concern. The kimarite is listed as shitatenage, but could also be called (at least in English) a “twisting genital pull down”. Anyone with higher skill in Japanese want to take a crack at that for me? Enho ends Haru 6-9.
Onosho defeats Mitakeumi – I am very happy that Onosho ended Haru with a 9-6, and he looked very dominant today. But I was hoping that Mitakeumi would hit 11, and force a slot to open for him. But a week 2 fade has always been part of his sumo, and he lost 3 of his last 4 against the likes of Takanosho and Aoiyama. Onosho finishes Haru with a winning record and a special prize. I look forward to him being a harrier to the named ranks in the next basho.
Yutakayama defeats Chiyomaru – Our next Darwin match, “Big Unit” Yutakayama stood up to Chiyomaru’s thrusting attack, and returned it measure for measure. Unable to move that much mass, Yutakayama gave ground and let Chiyomaru’s naturally foward center of gravity do some of the work for him. Risky move for a backward-motion pull down, but Yutakayama made it work. The gumbai went to Chiyomaru, but a monoii reversed that and gave the win to the Yutakayama. He finishes with an 8-7 kachi-koshi, and I am eager to see him join Onosho in being semi-permanent members of the next generation joi-jin.
Tamawashi defeats Tokushoryu – Everyone wanted Hatsu yusho winner Tokushoryu to close out with a win, except for Tamawashi. Tamawashi has been fighting poorly this basho, but managed to overpower Tokushoryu and score his 6th win to finish Haru 6-9.
Okinoumi defeats Kotoshogiku – The final Darwin match was two long serving veterans, who must be starting to think, “I am getting to old for this”. Although Kotoshogiku was able to get his hug-n-chug attack running, his damaged knees cannot support more than a fraction of the attack’s full power. Okinoumi circled away and when Kotoshogiku slipped, Okinoumi followed through and took him to the clay. Okinoumi finishes kachi-koshi at 8-7.
Kiribayama defeats Daieisho – Daieisho came out strong and aggressive, pushing Kiribayama back to the bales in the first 3 steps. Facing an immedate loss, Kiribayama pivoted into a last ditch uwatenage, which found its mark and won the match for Kiribayama. He ends Haru 9-6.
Takarafuji defeats Endo – Takarafuji shut down Endo’s preferred weapon, the left hand frontal grip, and dispatched him shortly after the tachiai. Interesting variation from a rikishi who typically will prolong a match and wear his opponent down. Takarafuji ends with a well deserved 9-6 record, and Endo finishes Haru make-koshi at 7-8.
Shohozan defeats Hokutofuji – A Shohozan henka was only partially effective, but when the two re-engaged, there was a well placed face slap that seemed to distract Hokutofuji at the exact moment Hokutofuji wanted to get his left hand inside. Shohozan showed outstanding mobility and kept Hokutofuji from really setting up much offense, and finished Shohozan with a move to the side and a shove over the bales. Both end Haru with 4-11 records, and badly need to return to Tokyo and regroup.
Takanosho defeats Shodai – I think Takanosho surprised Shodai today. Takanosho had Shodai turned to his side and was pushing from Shodai’s left two steps after the tachiai. From that position, even the best struggle to defend. But Shodai had the sense to try a desperation throw as he was headed out. It failed and the win went to Takanosho, who finishes Haru with a blistering 12-3, and the fighting spirit prize.
Asanoyama defeats Takakeisho – Takakeisho worked hard to keep Asanoyama away from his belt, and for the most part it worked. But all of the time and effort on defense meant the Ozeki generated precious little offense, and he spent the majority of the match reacting to Asanoyama. Asanoyama stayed focused and exploited an awkward step by Takakeisho. The win seems to have clinched his Ozeki promotion while simultaneously sending Takakeisho into make-koshi, and kadoban. Head home and heal up, Grand Tadpole. We await your next tournament. Asanoyama finishes Haru 11-4.
Hakuho defeats Kakuryu – Both had a lot of action in this match, but the defining moment was Kakuryu attempting to change his grip, and Hakuho getting lower than I have seen him in several months and driving forward like some over powered battle crab. I am very happy to see Hakuho can still summon sumo like that at least once a tournament. He finishes Haru 13-2, and takes home his 44th yusho. I think this is the 3rd oldest yusho in history, as Hakuho is 35 years old now, and still able to dominate the sport.
With the Haru basho in the history books, we pause to thank our readers, the Japan Sumo Association, and the sumo work for 15 days of much needed distraction from the increasingly worrisome headlines of the world around us. Against all odds they successfully conducted and completed an intensive event spanning more than 2 weeks in an age of a virulent disease. Nobody got sick (that we know of), and everyone gave it their best in spite of an empty hall that, in the beginning, seemed quite spooky. I am personally quite grateful for the competition, and the spectacle of sumo. Thank you all.
