Sanyaku

The title race has been narrowed to our top two Ozeki, Kotozakura and Hoshoryu, both 12-1. They will face off on Sunday with the yusho on the line. The champion will be on a Yokozuna run in January; the runner-up might be as well, especially if he reaches 13 wins. Sekiwake Daieisho moved to 7-6, guaranteeing him a place in the named ranks. Fellow Sekiwake Kirishima fell to 6-7; he must win out to retain his rank, and needs one more win to limit his drop to Komusubi. East Komusubi Wakamotoharu (8-5) has defended his rank and is in pole position for a Sekiwake slot if one of the incumbents falters. His West counterpart, Shodai, is already make-koshi and will drop back into the maegashira ranks. Abi currently leads the race for the open slot, with Wakatakakage not far behind and Takanosho still in the running.

Makuuchi <-> Juryo

We now have four rikishi with demotable records in the top division: Bushozan, Shishi, Asakoryu, and Ryuden. The trio of Nishikifuji, Sadanoumi, and Tokihayate still needs a win apiece for mathematical safety, but they’re probably okay given the thin ranks of promotion candidates. Kinbozan and Kitanowaka are assured of quick returns to the top division. Hakuoho and Tsurugisho can join them in Makuuchi with one more win apiece, while Kagayaki and Tamashoho need to win out and hope for favorable results elsewhere.

Juryo <-> Makushita

No change from yesterday. Chiyomaru and Onosho will drop out of the sekitori ranks, to be replaced by Hatsuyama and Kiryuko. Additional exchanges are possible but unlikely, especially given how the Day 14 bouts have been set up.

In the closing stages of a tournament, I enjoy paying attention to the implications of the results for the next banzuke. Follow along if you’d like.

Sanyaku

We’ll talk about the Ozeki in a couple of days. Both Sekiwake, Kirishima and Daieisho, have 6-6 records. Each needs two wins in three bouts to hold rank, although one win ensures a place in the named ranks (a 7-8 Sekiwake drops no lower than Komusubi, and on rare occasions can even stay at the current rank). East Komusubi Wakamotoharu (7-5) is one win away from defending his rank and possibly moving up if one of the Sekiwake falters. His West counterpart, Shodai, is already make-koshi and will drop back into the maegashira ranks. Abi currently leads the race for the open slot, with Wakatakakage and Takanosho waiting in the wings.

Makuuchi <-> Juryo

Bushozan is assured of a drop, while Shishi would need to win out and rely on favorable banzuke luck to avoid joining him. We have five other endangered incumbents, roughly in this order of distance to Juryo: Asakoryu, Ryuden, Nishikifuji, Sadanoumi, Tokihayate. With up to seven demotion candidates, good records in Juryo should be rewarded. At the moment, Kinbozan is assured of a quick return to the top division. After him the promotion queue is roughly as follows: Kitanowaka, Tsurugisho, Kagayaki, Hakuoho, Tamashoho, Kayo. Everyone on this list still needs between one and three wins for a proper promotion case, so getting good results down the stretch will be key.

Juryo <-> Makushita

This looks more straightforward. I expect Chiyomaru and Onosho to drop out of the sekitori ranks, to be replaced by Hatsuyama and Kiryuko. Additional exchanges are possible but unlikely.

The third division is somewhat lighter on talent and excitement that it has been in recent tournaments, but here’s a quick update on the yusho and promotion races. After 5 rounds of bouts, we have only undefeated 5-0 rikishi: Ms6e Kazekeno, Ms31w Hokutomaru, and Ms48w Osanai. The first two go head-to-head on day 11, while Osanai will fight the highest-ranked undefeated Sandanme man, Sd10e Nobehara.

The main goal of wrestlers in upper Makushita is to earn promotion to the salaried ranks. Kazekeno can return to Juryo following his one basho there back in May if he wins out, but is ranked just below the Ms-Ms5 “promotion zone” and so pretty much must go 7-0. In the promotion zone, we have one absent rikishi (Ms1e Asanoyama), three with losing records, and two Ms5’s who are 2-3, so even winning out is unlikely to earn them promotion. Nobody has a winning record yet, but Ms1w Hatsuyama, who won the division in September and missed out on promotion by half a rank, and Ms2e Kiryuko, both 3-2, can get there and put themselves in very strong position with wins tomorrow. Ms2w Miyagi (2-3) must win out, and Ms4e Kotokuzan (3-2) needs to do so as well or hope for excellent banzuke luck if he finishes 4-3.

At the moment, the only certainty in Juryo is the return to Makushita of His Roundness J11w Chiyomaru (0-10), but J10e Onosho (2-8) and new sekitori J13w Kotoeiho (4-6) need to start piling up wins to avoid joining him. For Onosho, this could be the first fall out of the sekitori ranks since 2016. Also not out of the woods are newcomer J13e Wakaikari, who’s rallied to a 5-5 record after starting with 5 losses sandwiched around a fusensho, J14e Nabatame (6-4) and J12e Daiseizan (5-5), each of whom could use two more wins.

While we are here, Bushozan is dropping out of the top division, Shishi, Asakoryu, and Ryuden (!) are in deep trouble, while Nishikifuji and Tokihayate need more wins than losses in the final five days to avoid having to rely on banzuke luck. Working in favor of the incumbents is the fact that only J1w Kinbozan (8-2) looks set for an immediate return to Makuuchi, while all other contenders need at least two more wins, and all except Tsurugisho need 3 or more, to have a strong promotion case.

Higher up the banzuke, Kirishima and Shodai, both 4-6, are at serious risk of vacating their sanyaku slots; the lead candidates to replace them should that happen are Abi, Wakatakakage, and Takanosho.

With the official November banzuke released, let’s take a look at how the Crystal Ball fared.

Komusubi

Right off the bat, my Komusubi West prediction was wrong. They went with M4e Shodai (10-5) over my guess, M7e Wakatakakage (12-3), and M2w Oho (9-6). Like I said, you could make valid arguments for any of the three, and at least I am happy to see my favorite wrestler (yes, you read that right) back in the named ranks.

M1e-M2e

Had I picked Komusubi West correctly, I probably would have gotten this right, but with my choice of WTK there, I went with Shodai-Oho-Hiradoumi rather than the actual order of Oho-Hiradoumi-WTK.

M3e-M4e

I got the three contenders here right, but erred a bit on the order by going with M2e Atamifuji (7-8), S1e Abi (5-10), and M7w Churanoumi (10-5). Abi got even more leniency than I expected, going ahead of Atamifuji, who can be miffed at his slight over-demotion.

M14-M17

The main thing I’m happy about is picking all 42 Makuuchi rikishi correctly, since the promotion-demotion picture wasn’t obvious at all. In terms of the exact rankings, Nishikifuji lucked out yet again by getting placed ahead of Onokatsu despite deserving to be behind him. And getting the last three rikishi right—M12e Bushozan (4-11), J11w Takerufuji (13-2) and J8e Asakoryu (11-4)—got me minimal Guess the Banzuke points because the banzuke committee ended up placing Bushozan at M17w, behind the borderline Juryo promotions.

Elsewhere

Here’s what I wrote in my prediction post:

Other smaller question marks: Roga/Gonoyama, Takayasu/Ichiyamamoto, Tamawashi/Meisei, Hokutofuji/Sadanoumi. And of course, count on the banzuke committee to make some completely unanticipated decisions that’ll leave us scratching our heads.

I got all those orders right, but it didn’t matter, because boy did the banzuke committee live up to that expectation. The main trend was the return of very lenient demotions for upper maegashira with terrible records. M1e Takanosho (4-11) landed a full rank higher than he deserved, and M3e Mitakeumi (4-11) benefited by a rank and a half. He and Wakatakakage were my biggest misses, but the overall effect of a lot of small differences on my GTB guess was … not good.

Oh well. I’m happy to see new Ozeki Onosato, Shodai at Komusubi, Wakatakakage climbing the ranks, and Shishi, Takerufuji, and Asakoryu in the top division! In Juryo, Hakuoho is back up to J2, Aonishiki debuts at J11, and Wakaikari and Kotoeiho (the artist formerly known as Kototebakari) at J13. On to the basho!