Haru 2025 – Projected Shin-Makushita

I apologize for the delayed updates – I have taken on a new assignment at my non-sumo related day job that has required much more of my attention – including a few overseas trips (unfortunately, not to Japan).  I promise to catch up on the Kyushu 2024 and Hatsu 2025 shin-makushita in the upcoming periods. 

As a bit of a reset, here are the Haru 2025 expected shin-makushita profiles.

Daimasakari (大斧)

StableOitekaze
Age19
Height (cm/feet)167cm (5‘5“)
Weight (kg/lbs)147kg (323 lbs)
Home prefectureSaitama
High schoolSaitama Sakae
University—
Career Record31-11 (.738) Sandanme Yusho (Hatsu 2025)
DebutHatsu 2024

As a graduate of Saitama Sakae, Daimasakari already has a lot of sumo experience. He admired his high-school and Iruma Sumo Club senpai, Daieishō, and joined Oitekaze beya. Media reports that he is an uchi-deshi of Daieishō and will join a new stable if/when the current Sekiwake decides to branch out.  Like his senpai, his forte is tsuki-oshi and this has helped him rise quickly through the ranks – reaching Sandanme 15 before getting his first losing record. Of course, he promptly followed that disappointment with the 4th Division title – earning him a quick move into Makushita. In fact, he cited his first losing record as a motivator to do better this last bashō in his championship interview.

He started sumo in 2nd grade at the Iruma Sumo Clib. In his third year of junior high school, he placed 32nd in the National Junior High School Championships (former Japan Sumo Tournament). At Saitame Sakae, in his third year, he won the Kantō Tournament 100-kilogram class.  He was a best-16 finisher in the Kokutai Tournament, as well.

Daimasakari is not a tall wrestler and has to show bold and decisive sumo to compensate – thus using his rounder body to improve his pushing/thrusting attack.  He aims for the type of sumo of Daieishō and former Takakeishō.

Daikōshō (大皇翔)

StableOitekaze
Age22
Height (cm/feet)189cm (6‘2“)
Weight (kg/lbs)161kg (355 lbs)
Home prefectureKagawa
High schoolSouth Takamatsu High
UniversityNichidai  (日本大学)
Career Record26-9 (.743)
DebutHaru 2024

Joining Daimasakari in Makushita next tournament is his stablemate, Daikōshō.  Daikōshō is a Nichidai Graduate, which seems to be a feeder to various heya, including Oitekaze. There was hope for an all-Oitekaze playoff in Sandanme but Daikōshō was unable to win his 7th bout. Like Daimasakari, he rose through to the top of Sandanme before getting his first losing record – which may be about right for a university-experienced wrestler who is not “top tier”.

He started sumo young, and won a prefectural sumo tournament in junior high. In his high school sophomore year, he finished in the top 8 at the National High School Selection Tournament. At Nichidai, he was 32nd place in the National Student Championship, 3rd place in his weight class, and won the East Japan League Fighting Spirit Award. He has two brothers in sumo – his older brother, Daikishō (former Makushita wrestler who just won the Jonokuchi Division in Hatsu 2025 on his return to action from injury) is also with Oitekaze-beya, and his younger brother is still with Nichidai sumo club.

His mae-zumo loss was to Noda (see below), which he said made for a “bittersweet” debut, considering his university experience. He says he came up with his own shikona, taking the heya’s “daisho” base (大翔) and coming up with the kō “皇” based on his real first name.  The kō means “shining like the sun” and his real first name is Taiyō (大陽), meaning sun! His goal is also t be like Daieishō, for whom his older brother served as a tsukebito.  He admires him because they share the same tsuki-oshi technique.

Noda (野田)

StableFujishima
Age19
Height (cm/feet)185cm (6‘0“)
Weight (kg/lbs)124kg (274lbs)
Home prefectureWakayama
High schoolMinoshima High School
University—
Career Record27-8 (.771) Jonokuchi Yusho (Natsu 2024)
DebutHaru 2024

Noda won the Jonokuchi Division in his Grand Sumo debut, defeating Seihakuhō (current Makushita) after a minute with an Uwatenage. He also defeated Daikōshō (above) in the maezumo match and also knocked him out of a possible Sandanme playoff last tournament.  Thus, Noda has already shown he can beat more experienced university prospects.

Noda began taking sumo in 3rd grade at Higashiosaka Sumo Dojo. He became captain of the Minoshima High School (which does produce quality wrestlers) sumo club. While at Minoshima High School, he won a few titles.  As a freshman, he was in 3rd at the National High School tournament. As a sophomore, he received numerous titles – 3rd place at the national high school team competition, third place at the Hirosaki National High School tournament, and 3rd place at the National High School Tournament. In his junior year, he was in 2nd place at the junior weight class at the All Japan and team champion at the Kanazawa National High School Tournament. Most importantly, he won the World Junior Championships (team and individual titles) in October 2023 in the open division. This earned him a title of “Under 18 World Number 1” wrestler – a title previously held by Takakeshō and Kotozakura in their amateur days.  Thus, Noda attracted a lot of attention at his debut.

Noda aims to be a strong yotsu (belt) wrestler – and always hopes to be moving forward to victory. He said he aims to be like Fujiseiun and his first goal was to reach Makushita division (achieved) and then higher to sekitori. He claims to have dreamed of joining the sumo world since he began practicing and was relieved to have finally joined.

I have seen posts on Twitter that his physique and style remind some viewers of a young Takanohana.  That is very high praise, and if true bodes well for the young man’s future.

Shimizuumi (清水海)

StableSakaigawa
Age23
Height (cm/feet)175cm (5‘8“)
Weight (kg/lbs)126kg (277lbs)
Home prefectureKōchi
High schoolSaitama Sakae
UniversityNichidai  (日本大学)
Career Record22-6 (.786)
Debut:Natsu 2024 –  Jonokuchi (Nag 2024) and Jonidan (Aki 2024) Yusho

Shimizuumi is one of three brothers in Grand Sumo. His older brother, Tosashimizu (a former sumo world champion), is with Tokitsukaze stable and has not advanced past upper sandanme in his 9 year career.  His younger brother, Gōseimaru, just joined Takekuma stable at the end of 2024 and made his successful (4-3) debut last tournament. He has a 4th brother, who has not gone pro – but is part of the Wakayama Prefecture Corporate Sumo Club. Coming out of a university background (same university and class as Kusano and Kazuma), he easily won the Jonokuchi and Jonidan Divisions back-to-back, even defeating former top division’s Enhō in his Grand Sumo debut match. He has not yet had a losing record, but has received repeat 4-3 records at the top of Sandanme – possibly indicating he is reaching his current limit.

Coming from the sumo family, he started sumo at age 4 at the Tosashimizu Boys Club. After graduating Shimizu Junior High, where he was in the top 16 at the National Junior High School Tournament, he went on to powerhouse high school Saitama Sakae – where he became captain of their sumo team. He placed 3rd in the Kanto Tournament Heavyweight Division his Junior Year. He then went onto Nichidai. His biggest successes were the top 16 at the All Japan University Selection Kanazawa Tournament, 3rd in the East Japan Student over 135kg weight class, and top 8 in the All Japan over 135kg weight class.

He admires Hiradoumi and indicates he regularly receives advice from him.  He specializes in tsuki-oshi and also uses uwatedashinage. He enjoys watching videos of amateur and professional sumo – and was amazed to fight Enhō (someone who he regularly watched0 in his debut.  Defeating Enhō gave im great confidence.

Yonezawaryū (米沢龍)

StableSakaigawa
Age19
Height (cm/feet)190cm (6‘2“)
Weight (kg/lbs)132kg (290lbs)
Home prefectureYamagata
High schoolCentral Yonezawa High
UniversityNichidai  (日本大学) (quit early)
Career Record21-7 (.750)
Debut:Natsu 2024  

Yonezawaryū is out of Central Yonezawa High School and went to Nichidai – however, he was not a member of the University’s prestigious sumo club. He was on the Judo team and had no experience in sumo prior to joining Sakaigawa-beya.  In Judo, he received second place in the Tohoku Tournament during his high school years and he trained regularly with Harasawa (a silver medalist from the Rio Olympics).  He dropped out of Nichidai after one year to join the sumo world.  He looked good in mae-zumo, but ended up with a disappointing 3-4 record in his debut. He has since roared back with back-to-back-to-back 6-1 records, putting him on the cusp of Makushita. At the rank of Sandanme 50 East last basho, there is an outside chance he does not make it to Makushita – but my crystal ball told me to include him in this digest.

Yonezawaryū is considered a handsome and tall rikishi – who attracted a lot of media attention with his win over giant Dewanojo in the Hatsu Basho. The match was defined by a strong kachiage, followed by a brutal nodowa that stopped the heavy man in his tracks – but did not finish him off.  It took swift legwork and a powerful pull to bring down the giant to the delight of the crowd. The media is paying more attention to the growing number of fans of the young wrestler – people are saying: “This guy is really handsome”, ”Oh my God, he looks like he would be popular”, and “He has good looks that even men would fall in love with”.

Dairinzan (大凜山)

StableArashio
Age21
Height (cm/feet)182cm (5‘11“)
Weight (kg/lbs)143kg (314lbs)
Home prefectureAichi
High schoolIchinomiya Technology and Engineering High
University—
Career Record66-53 (.555) Jonidan Yusho (Kyu 2023)
Debut:Haru 2022  

Dairinzan is a graduate of Ichinomiya Technical and Engineering High School in Aichi Prefecture. He had no prior sumo experience before joining Arashio-beya, having participated in the rugby club during his school days. His rise up the banzuke was a bit slow, two tournaments in division 6 and eight in division 5 before winning the Yusho in Jonidan to send him into Sandanme. To decide the championship, he had to go against one of Andy’s prospects, Shiroma – a former university graduate – and Dairinzan knew he was going to be outclassed. He says he planned well for the match, and that the bout went the way he had envisioned it before.  Having never set foot in the dōhyō before, he indicated he needs to keep improving his tsuki-oshi and hit harder in the tachiai. His goal, at the time of winning the jonidan championship was to reach Makushita – so, goal achieved!

He has served as tsukebito for Wakamotoharo – a fact which he cites for the Jonidan victory. He credits his rise to the amount of sekitori at the stable that he can train with. With the intimidating last name of Maruyama (same as the 3rd Yokozuna from the early days of sumo), he had to choose a new ring name. The Rin character comes from his first name.

Ikazuchidō (雷道)

StableIkazuchi
Age19
Height (cm/feet)183cm (5‘11“)
Weight (kg/lbs)95kg (209lbs)
Home prefectureSaitama
High schoolShutoku High (quit early)
University—
Career Record65-47 (.580)
Debut:Natsu 2022  

Ikazuchidō has a number of interesting facts to report as he makes his Makushita Debut. He has a slender and muscular physique, a background in Judo, and the nickname “Nelly” – which comes from his real name – Nelly Yamada. If you are thinking Nelly is not a typical Japanese first name, you would be right – as he is half Nigerian/half Japanese. When I have seen him win on the Abema stream, it is often due to his Judo background (kakenage and other throws).

Ikazuchidō joined Irumagawa-beya as the first uchi-deshi of Ikazuchi Oyakata (who took over Irumagawa-stable shortly after). He was personally scouted by Ikazuchi Oyakata for his perseverance and judo skills. I had been cheering for him to make Makushita – but saw his clinching match where he let his emotions get the better of him on the dohyo.  Ideally, he can practice his stoicism.

Yamatō (山藤)

StableDewanoumi
Age21
Height (cm/feet)182cm (5‘11“)
Weight (kg/lbs)74kg (162lbs)
Home prefectureGifu
High schoolGifu Agricultural and Forestry High
University—
Career Record66-49-4 (.574)
Debut:Haru 2022  

Yamatō started wresting at the Gifu Wednesday Sumo Club when he was in 4th Grade and participated in the national children’s sumo tournament for three consecutive years from that point on.  When he was at Sakuragaoka Junior High, he participated in both the National Junior High and National Prefectural Junior High tournaments.  In the second year of high school, he won the team championship and individual lightweight division championship at the Prefectural High School Championships. He also won the individual lightweight division championship at the Tokai High School Sumo Tournament. He had been selected to participate in the preliminary round (for Japan) at the World Junior Sumo Champioships, but this competition was cancelld due to the pandemic. He was invited to join Dewanoumi stable by his older brother, the Sandanme wrestler Suiō (翠桜).

As a lightweight wrestler (possibly the third lightest in all of Grand Sumo), he entertains the audience with exciting techniques and footwork – these were on display early in his career when he won his first playoff match by ashitori in a 4-man playoff for the Jonokuchi division championship. The audience is often surprised to see someone in the ring with “the body shape of an ordinary person”.  Fans have even called him the “handsome, ultra-thin macho rikishi”. He has struggled to gain weight since joining the stable, saying “I cannot eat a lot of rice, so I have to make do with noodles and protein”. His goal is to increase his weight to 100kg and be promoted to Makushita (at least this was achieved). Being promoted to makushita in the 70kgs range is pretty rare these days. It will be very entertaining to see a “stick bug” participating in the Makushita division – why?  Because he often trains with stablemate Dewanojō, one of the heaviest professional sumo wrestlers.

Hatsu 2025 Banzuke Crystal Ball

The holidays mean that the January rankings will be released early—Sunday or Monday, depending on where you are in the world. I took an early look at some of the key banzuke decisions immediately after the Kyushu basho; now here’s my full banzuke guess. Scroll down for a brief analysis.

The named ranks should be correct; the only plausible change would be to slide Wakamotoharu ahead of Daieisho. The identities of the first 5 maegashira are clear, though several arrangements for M1e-M3e are possible. The biggest wildcard is probably how much of a parachute the 4-11 M4 duo of Churanoumi and Oshoma are given. There are several potential local switches, especially in the long run of wrestlers of similar rank with 8-7 and 7-8 records in the middle of the banzuke. And Nishikifuji could well end up at M17e, though given his recent treatment and the general incumbent preference, I’ve opted to bump him up a rank in my prediction. Anyway, we’ll see how close I got in a few days; in the meantime, let me know what you think in the comments.

Banzuke Musings for Hatsu 2025

Yokozuna Runs

Kyushu champion Kotozakura (14-1) is unquestionably a candidate for promotion to the highest rank in January. A second consecutive yusho should seal the deal under almost any imaginable circumstances. A sufficiently strong runner-up performance with a minimum of 12 wins could also do the traick. The runner-up, Hoshoryu (13-2), must win at Hatsu to be promoted, and it’ll probably take a yusho with at least 13 wins.

Ozeki Runs

It is conceivable that Wakamotoharu, with 11 wins at M3 in September and 10 at Komusubi in Kyushu could get promoted with a sufficiently dominant performance in January, but given that 11 wins is his career high, I am not holding my breath.

Sanyaku

There’s little suspense here. Our two Sekiwake will be S1w Daieisho (8-7) and K1e Wakamotoharu (10-5). The two Komusubi slots will go to M3e Abi (11-4) and M2e Wakatakakage (10-5). M6e Takanosho (11-4) is next in line, but it seems highly unlikely that he would force open an extra slot.

Makuuchi <-> Juryo

A lot was on the line on the final day. Bushozan and Shishi were already set to go down, Ryuden lost to join them on the Juryo barge, and a win by Asakoryu was too little, too late to save him given the results in the second division. Sadanoumi and Tokihayate both lost, creating the potential for six exchanges. Five spots are spoken for by Kinbozan, Hakuoho, Kitanowaka, Kagayaki, and Tamashoho, who all won on the final day. Tsurugisho lost, however, tanking his promotion chances. The sixth-best promotion claim belongs to J6w Shiden (10-5), but this will probably not be enough to push down Tokihayate, giving the latter a lucky escape.

Juryo <-> Makushita

Chiyomaru and Onosho will drop out of the sekitori ranks, to be replaced by Hatsuyama and Kiryuko. A loss by Daishoho leaves open the possibility that he could be exchanged with Kotokuzan. As usual, we’ll learn about the promotions to Juryo in a couple of days, while the rest of the banzuke won’t drop until December 23. I should have a full prediction post closer to its release. In the meantime, let me know what you think in the comments.

Banzuke Scenarios, Day 14

Here’s what to watch for to add some extra spice to Day 15 bouts.

Sanyaku

S1w Daieisho (8-6) will keep his rank. S1e Kirishima (6-8) will lose his and must beat Onosato tomorrow to limit his drop to Komusubi. K1e Wakamotoharu (9-5) should take over the vacant Sekiwake slot. One Komusubi spot has been opened by K1w Shodai (4-10). A loss by Kirishima would open a second, in which case we’ll have M3e Abi (11-3) and M2e Wakatakakage (10-4) at Komusubi, with only their order riding on tomorrow’s results. If Kirishima wins, and Abi ends with a better record than WTK, Abi takes the open spot, while WTK could be considered for an extra one, especially with 11 win. If they end up tied with 11 wins, WTK gets the open slot, and Abi could be considered for an extra one, though his rank would give him a somewhat lower chance.

Makuuchi <-> Juryo

Bushozan and Shishi are guaranteed to go down. Asakoryu could conceivably save himself with a win, but only if Ryuden and all Juryo promotion candidates who have not yet clinched promotion lose. Ryuden could stay with a win, but again only if all the promotion candidates lose. Sadanoumi and Tokihayate each need a Day 15 win for definite safety. Kinbozan and Kitanowaka are assured of quick returns to the top division. Hakuoho has a promotable record, but could still conceivably miss out if he loses tomorrow and Tokihayate, Sadanoumi, Kagayaki, and Tamashoho all win. A minimum of three exchanges is assured, and we could see as many as six if Tokihayate and Sadanoumi lose and Kagayaki, Tamashoho, and Tsurugisho all win.

Juryo <-> Makushita

Chiyomaru and Onosho will drop out of the sekitori ranks, to be replaced by Hatsuyama and Kiryuko. It is conceivable that losses by Daishoho and (less likely) Nabatame could bring up Kotokuzan and (less likely) Akua to replace them. I think Nabatame stays even with a loss, whereas Daishoho with a loss vs. Kotokuzan would be a toss-up.