With the November banzuke dropping a week from now, it’s time to post my prediction. I’ll go through the major question marks below; scroll down if you just want to see the guess.

Komusubi

With one Komusubi slot open via Daieisho’s likely promotion to Sekiwake, and the other via demotion of K1w Hiradoumi (7-8), we need two replacements. M3w Wakamotoharu (11-4) has a clear claim on K1e. Whom to put on the West side is less clear. I’ve gone with little bro M7e Wakatakakage (12-3), who has the best numerical case, but M4e Shodai (10-5) faced a stronger schedule, as did M2w Oho (9-6), who also beat Shodai on Day 15, and you can make valid arguments for any of the three.

M1e-M2e

The first three maegashira slots will be filled, in some order, by Hiradoumi plus whichever two of the trio above miss out on Komusubi. The order is unclear though. All three maegashira have strong enough rank-record combinations to be ahead of Hiradoumi, but it’s pretty rare for a Komusubi with a 7-8 record to drop below M1. Given my choice of WTK for K1w, I’ve gone with Shodai-Oho-Hiradoumi, but my confidence here isn’t high.

M3e-M4e

The three contenders here are M2e Atamifuji (7-8), S1e Abi (5-10), and M7w Churanoumi (10-5). I’ve listed them in the order of my guess, on the grounds that Atamifuji shouldn’t be over-demoted and a dropping Sekiwake should get a bit of leniency, but Churanoumi actually has the best rank-record combination and could go ahead of one or both of them.

M14-M17

Usually, Juryo promotions don’t go ahead of incumbents with winning records, but I think the two-win difference between the last guy in Makuuchi, M17e Nishikifuji (8-7), and the top guy in Juryo, J1e Chiyoshoma (10-5), will be enough to overcome this. After that decision, M14w Onokatsu (7-8) and Nishikifuji slot in naturally at M14w and M15e, followed by the other two obvious promotions from Juryo, Tokihayate and Shishi, at M15w and M16e. That still leaves us with three slots to fill (Takakeisho’s retirement shrinks the san’yaku, leading to the return of M17w). The candidates here are three Makuuchi rikishi with records that would usually mean demotion—M12e Bushozan (4-11), M12w Kinbozan (4-11), and M16w Kitanowaka (6-9)—and two Juryo rikishi with records that are right at or just below the promotion line—J11w Takerufuji (13-2) and J8e Asakoryu (11-4). I’ll be very surprised if Takerufuji doesn’t come up, though whether he trades places with Kitanowaka or Kinbozan is a coin flip. I’ve actually opted to drop both and bring up Asakoryu, but again, I am far from confident.

Other smaller question marks: Roga/Gonoyama, Takayasu/Ichiyamamoto, Tamawashi/Meisei, Hokutofuji/Sadanoumi. And of course, count on the banzuke committee to make some completely unanticipated decisions that’ll leave us scratching our heads.

The full guess is below. Let me know what you think in the comments!

The Makushita yusho went to Ms16e Hatsuyama. Hatsuyama is ranked just a single rung below where a 7-0 record would normally lead to Juryo promotion, but see below. He debuted as a Sandanme tsukedashi back in March 2022 and has spent two years in Makushita, getting as high as Ms4.

In the Ms1-Ms5 promotion zone, six rikishi went kachi-koshi, qualifying them for a shot at a Juryo slot. They are top-ranked Ms1e Tochitaikai (4-3), young Ukrainian sensation Ms4w Aonishiki (6-1), His Roundness Ms3w Chiyomaru (5-2), Ms2w Wakaikari (4-3), Ms5w Kototebakari (5-2), and Ms4e Nabatame (4-3). We could spend time debating the exact pecking order among them, but it doesn’t really matter—they should all be promoted. That’s because there are nominally seven openings in Juryo. One is created by Takakeisho’s retirement, sliding everyone below him up a rung. The other six, in rough order of demotion probability, are J13w Chiyosakae (0-4-11), J9w Myogiryu (0-0-15), J12w Kiryuko (4-11), J3w Asanoyama (0-0-15), J13e Aoiyama (5-10), and J14w Oshoumi (6-9). The first three are going down for sure, as are two of the last three. But does one get to stay, and if so, who, or do they go with an unconventional 7th promotion? The options there are the above-mentioned Hatsuyama, Ms6w Kaisho (4-3), Ms9w Kamito (5-2), and Ms13w Miyagi (6-1). I don’t really like any of these, but something has to give.

We’ll get to satisfy our curiosity regarding who’s going up in a couple of days, but if it’s just the six (or fewer), we won’t know whom they’ve opted to save until banzuke day.

Congratulations to Sekiwake Onosato on his second Makuuchi yusho in just his 5th top-division tournament! The star collegian’s record-breaking start to his professional career, which began only in May of last year, includes a record of 90-29, zero make-koshi, and 8 special prizes! He won’t have a chance to add to that total, as his performance ensures his promotion to Ozeki, the fastest on record.

Now that the results are in the books, let’s take our customary preliminary look at how they’re likely to reshuffle the rankings chart for November.

Sanyaku

Absent Terunofuji will continue to occupy the Y1e rank. O1e Kotozakura (8-7) and O1w Hoshoryu (8-7) finished with identical records and will maintain their ranks, and the latter’s victory over the former on Day 15 means that neither will be facing demotion in November. And they’ll be joined at Ozeki by our Aki champion.

We had an embarrassment of riches with four Sekiwake. One retired (Takakeisho), one earned promotion, and one finished 5-10 (Abi). So only Kirishima (12-3) will remain at the third-highest rank, moving up to the top East position, and he should be joined on the West side by K1e Daieisho (8-7). With one Komusubi slot open via promotion, and the other via demotion of K1w Hiradoumi (7-8), we need two replacements. M3w Wakamotoharu (11-4) has a clear claim on K1e. Whom to put on the West side is less clear. Little bro M7e Wakatakakage (12-3) has the best numerical case, but M4e Shodai (10-5) faced a stronger schedule, as did M2w Oho (9-6), who also beat Shodai on Day 15. I need to take a closer look at who has the advantage here. With 1 Y, 3 O, 2 S, and 2K, sanyaku will shrink by one rank, meaning that M17w will be back on the banzuke for the first time since January.

The first three maegashira ranks will be filled, in some order, by Hiradoumi plus whichever two of the trio above miss out on Komusubi. And despite the shrinking sanyaku, the rest of the joi isn’t too hard to fill out this time.

Makuuchi-Juryo Exchanges

Takakeisho’s retirement opens up one bonus spot in the top division. I hope that injury victim M16e Shirokuma (4-9-2) will be sufficiently recovered to mount a strong comeback in Juryo. He should be joined there by M11w Kagayaki (3-12). That’s three normally certain openings, although after the decision to keep 6-9 M17e Nishikifuji last time, I am no longer certain of anything. And we have three strong candidates to fill these openings: J1e Chiyoshoma (10-5) and the J2 duo of Tokihayate and Shishi, both 9-6. I for one have looked forward to Shishi’s top-division debut ever since I first saw him battle Hokuseiho for the Jonidan yusho exactly four years ago.

From here, things get more complicated. We have three other Makuuchi rikishi with demotable records: M16w Kitanowaka (6-9), M12w Kinbozan (4-11), and M12e Bushozan (4-11). The next three best records in Juryo belong to champion J11w Takerufuji (13-2), J8e Asakoryu (11-4), and J5w Hakuoho (8-7). Only Takerufuji is promotable by the numbers, although Asakoryu just barely misses by half a rank. It seems highly unlikely that they’ll bring up Hakuoho. One likely scenario is that Takerufuji trades places with Kitanowaka and they call it a day. They could keep Kitanowaka and drop Kinbozan instead, although higher rank argues in Kinbozan’s favor, or drop both of them and bring up Asakoryu, which I think would have been more likely if that didn’t mean demoting one M12 with 4 wins and keeping the other.

I think I’ll call it here and leave the Juryo-Makushita exchanges for a separate post; boy, is there a lot to talk about! Let me know what you think in the comments.