In the closing stages of a tournament, I enjoy paying attention to the implications of the results for the next banzuke. Follow along if you’d like.
Sanyaku
We’ll talk about the Ozeki in a couple of days. Both Sekiwake, Kirishima and Daieisho, have 6-6 records. Each needs two wins in three bouts to hold rank, although one win ensures a place in the named ranks (a 7-8 Sekiwake drops no lower than Komusubi, and on rare occasions can even stay at the current rank). East Komusubi Wakamotoharu (7-5) is one win away from defending his rank and possibly moving up if one of the Sekiwake falters. His West counterpart, Shodai, is already make-koshi and will drop back into the maegashira ranks. Abi currently leads the race for the open slot, with Wakatakakage and Takanosho waiting in the wings.
Makuuchi <-> Juryo
Bushozan is assured of a drop, while Shishi would need to win out and rely on favorable banzuke luck to avoid joining him. We have five other endangered incumbents, roughly in this order of distance to Juryo: Asakoryu, Ryuden, Nishikifuji, Sadanoumi, Tokihayate. With up to seven demotion candidates, good records in Juryo should be rewarded. At the moment, Kinbozan is assured of a quick return to the top division. After him the promotion queue is roughly as follows: Kitanowaka, Tsurugisho, Kagayaki, Hakuoho, Tamashoho, Kayo. Everyone on this list still needs between one and three wins for a proper promotion case, so getting good results down the stretch will be key.
Juryo <-> Makushita
This looks more straightforward. I expect Chiyomaru and Onosho to drop out of the sekitori ranks, to be replaced by Hatsuyama and Kiryuko. Additional exchanges are possible but unlikely.
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The fact that seven guys might be on their way down is staggering to me. What’s worse is Ryuden looks broken and I feel should go down (almost needs to go down) before Asakoryu but that’s the advantage of his rank.
those two are in a virtual tie, not sure who’d go down if it’s a choice between the two of them and they perform the same over the final 3 days
It‘s touching to see Sadanoumi in the demotion line. He had so many bouts that went close to win, but then missed.
Three feels like a good round number for Juryo-Makuuchi exchange .. More merit tickets on the barge, but imho promo cases are a little thin .. Asakoryu looks to be developing a survival plan in Makuuchi .. Ryuden needs to re-load/get healthy in juryo ..