The Makushita yusho went to Ms16e Hatsuyama. Hatsuyama is ranked just a single rung below where a 7-0 record would normally lead to Juryo promotion, but see below. He debuted as a Sandanme tsukedashi back in March 2022 and has spent two years in Makushita, getting as high as Ms4.
In the Ms1-Ms5 promotion zone, six rikishi went kachi-koshi, qualifying them for a shot at a Juryo slot. They are top-ranked Ms1e Tochitaikai (4-3), young Ukrainian sensation Ms4w Aonishiki (6-1), His Roundness Ms3w Chiyomaru (5-2), Ms2w Wakaikari (4-3), Ms5w Kototebakari (5-2), and Ms4e Nabatame (4-3). We could spend time debating the exact pecking order among them, but it doesn’t really matter—they should all be promoted. That’s because there are nominally seven openings in Juryo. One is created by Takakeisho’s retirement, sliding everyone below him up a rung. The other six, in rough order of demotion probability, are J13w Chiyosakae (0-4-11), J9w Myogiryu (0-0-15), J12w Kiryuko (4-11), J3w Asanoyama (0-0-15), J13e Aoiyama (5-10), and J14w Oshoumi (6-9). The first three are going down for sure, as are two of the last three. But does one get to stay, and if so, who, or do they go with an unconventional 7th promotion? The options there are the above-mentioned Hatsuyama, Ms6w Kaisho (4-3), Ms9w Kamito (5-2), and Ms13w Miyagi (6-1). I don’t really like any of these, but something has to give.
We’ll get to satisfy our curiosity regarding who’s going up in a couple of days, but if it’s just the six (or fewer), we won’t know whom they’ve opted to save until banzuke day.
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I think the tip off here is Asahisho departing the kyokai, he had a loaner kabu
Given the current state of affairs I would imagine that means we’re looking at intai for one or both of Myogiryu and Aoiyama. I think Asanoyama is safe since his demotion was an edge case anyway, and if anyone gets overpromoted it’s probably Kaisho, with Nabatame definitely being up.
But as you say, we’ll see in a couple days.
A Myogiryu retirement – he’s supposed to be the owner of the share that ex-Asahisho had to give up – wouldn’t really change anything about the promotion/demotion question though, since he’s one of those who are definitely headed down. Would make makushita-joi a more straight-forward thing though; with him included I’m counting 31 reasonable candidates for the top 15 ranks. ;)
Similarly Aoiyama, whose retirement would only matter if he’s the one they would otherwise tab for that last available spot. I wouldn’t be surprised if both guys decide to hang around for that October juryo salary anyway and only retire closer to Kyushu basho.
But in fact, Aoiyama wouldn’t even surprise me if he gave it one last go in makushita (assuming he does get demoted)…one thing we’ve seen repeatedly with him over the years is that, predictable as it may be, his fighting style seems to give major trouble to opponents who haven’t previously been exposed to it. Physically he’s obviously very broken down, but his spirit looked intact to me in his four juryo tournaments. He could well get a lucky draw and sneak away from Fukuoka with 4 wins for an immediate return, and perhaps he feels the same.
Head-scratching to remember my exact line of thinking, but I think my Asahisho departure connection was more about if Myogiryu had him forced off of Furiwake AND Aoiyama also retired, then it would mean there would be no kabu available for him (otherwise why wouldn’t Asahisho have jumped onto Dekiyama – although I’m not sure if that’s been linked to anyone in particular, be it Aoiyama or possibly Sadanoumi).
Now of course Myogiryu has gone, so it will be interesting to see if we get an announcement out of Aoiyama anytime soon, before/during/after the juryo promotion announcement for example. As a marketer myself, I am often impressed that the Kyokai doesn’t like to stack their big announcements and they try to give some air time to each one.
I think you might be right about Aoiyama. Curious though as you have a similar line of thinking to me on a few things (notably: “issues that matter more to sumo fans than they do in reality”) I am wondering how much this “guy should retire before the banzuke is made in order to save or create space for some other guy” is a real issue that exists. My gut feeling tells me the sumo reaction would be “if you’re good enough to be in the division in the first place, you’ll be there.” But it is something I want to ask folks about next time I get to speak with people closer to the action in Tokyo.
The really puzzling part about Asahisho is that he left the Kiriyama share in favour of Furiwake in the first place, less than two months ago. Since Kiriyama was last owned by an Isegahama-affiliated oyakata, I figured that a Terunofuji intai might be imminent then (or perhaps Takarafuji, unlikely as that appeared), but now Myogiryu has retired even earlier than whoever is going to need Kiriyama, so it’s all a bit odd.
Good question about how much pressure, if any, there is on guys to retire promptly. My guess would be that the default is “not much” but that, like most things, it differs rikishi by rikishi and case by case. Some veterans might personally believe that it’s important to not block anybody on the way out, or sometimes there might be situations where it’s clear which specific rikishi would benefit from the exit (same heya, same ichimon, a behind the scenes friend, etc.) and there’s either mutual agreement or some convincing going on.
Aaand…Aoiyama intai, too. Iwatomo kabu, last used by the late ex-Kimurayama.
Unless there’s an imminent intai somewhere else (which is hard to imagine), this makes the Asahisho news even more strange. Maybe he just found work outside the Kyokai and needed to leave now. But it is a bit odd he’d have jumped to Furiwake instead of Dekiyama in any case.
I guess it’s plausible that Onosho might have to give in to his injuries but even so, he wouldn’t be dropping from Juryo until after the next basho.
Assuming Terunofuji is ticketed for Kiriyama, all the other potentials (Tamawashi, Takayasu, Hokutofuji, Takarafuji, Chiyomaru !?) wouldn’t seem to have an immediate need for the name, and Endo doesn’t seem likely to take up the name he’s been linked to in the near future. The one wild card might be Mitakeumi who looks cooked and probably is making plans, and Dekiyama has long been connected to the heya (if that even matters anymore).
We’ll probably never find out for sure, but I still believe that Dekiyama was actually freed up for Aoiyama back in May, but Kimurayama’s untimely death opened up a closer option (i.e. already in Kasugano-beya, not just Dewanoumi-ichimon as a whole).
Maybe I’m attaching too much importance to Dekiyama getting vacated, though, and its last holder just jumped ship (ex-Hochiyama to Tatsutagawa) because it’s a safer long-term option, not because anything was imminent with Dekiyama. It does seem strange that the kabu is just sitting there now.
I actually thought Mitakeumi looked much better in the last three tournaments than he had at any point since he lost the ozeki rank; sure, he’s still losing plenty of bouts and he’s obviously not getting back to ozeki, but the completely feeble, one-sided losses he regularly had for a while don’t seem to be happening anymore.
With Aoiyama and Myogiryu gone and assuming it’s not Mitakeumi, I guess the next development in the Dewanoumi group might be something with Kise-beya? Ex-Tokushoryu and ex-Akiseyama on borrowed shares, Shimanoumi and Hidenoumi both 35 years old and perennially just a couple of steps from makushita…
As I am one of those who would promote any yusho winner in any division, I do hope they‘ll give the nod to Hatsuyama.
I just like that there is a rikishi named Miyagi!