Congratulations to Ozeki Kirishima on a somewhat quiet but powerful 13-2 yusho! In the end, he finished two victories clear of his closest pursuers (Sekiwake Kotonowaka and rank-and-filers Atamifuji and Ichiyamamoto), and a similar performance at Hatsu could give us a new Yokozuna! With the November results in the books, let’s take our customary preliminary look at how they’re likely to reshuffle the rankings ahead of the January tournament.

Yokozuna and Ozeki

For now, Yokozuna Terunofuji will retain his position at the top of the banzuke. The Ozeki will get reshuffled based on their Kyushu win totals, with the new order being Kirishima (13-2), Hoshoryu (10-5), Takakeisho (9-6).

San’yaku

S1e Daieisho (9-6) and S2e Kotonowaka (11-4) successfully defended their ranks, while S1w Wakamotoharu (6-9) will be a maegashira in January. Daiesho has 19 wins over the past two tournaments, so mathematically he needs a 14-1 to hit the 33-win benchmark for Ozeki promotion, but his 60 wins in 2023 (trailing only Kiribayama’s 62), with four double-digit performances, could lower his target. Kotonowaka is in a stronger position, with 20 wins over two basho, and could get there with 12-13 wins in January.

The revolving door at Komusubi will continue, with neither Abi (6-9) nor Hokutofuji (5-10) able to hold rank. Their spots will go to former Ozeki Takayasu and fan favorite Ura, who will finally make his san’yaku debut! With Wakamotoharu’s demotion and no strong claims for extra san’yaku slots, the named ranks will shrink to 8, and M17w will reappear on the banzuke.

Upper Maegashira

This area of the banzuke will feature the trio demoted from san’yaku (Wakamotoharu, Abi, Hokutofuji), some well-performing maegashira (Atamifuji, Midorifuji, Gonoyama, Ryuden), and some holdovers with losing records who did just well enough to stay (Tobizaru, Shodai, Nishikigi).

Makuuchi-Juryo Exchanges

This worked out very cleanly after Day 15 results. Kitanowaka, Kotoeko, Roga, Tohakuryu, and Nishikifuji have demotable records and will be fighting in the second division in January. And there are five rikishi with clear promotion cases to take their place: Kotoshoho, Onosato, Bushozan, Shimazuumi, and Aoiyama (7-7). Oh, and Kotoshoho won his third Juryo yusho, defeating Onosato in a playoff rematch of their regulation bout, which also went to Kotoshoho.

Juryo – Makushita Exchanges

Four Makushita-Juryo exchanges are clear. Hakuyozan, Takerufuji, Oshoumi, and Tochimusashi will swap places with Hakuoho, Hitoshi, Azumaryu, and Takakento. One other exchange is possible—Chiyosakae or Tenshoho could be sent down in order to bring up Tsushimanada—but I am guessing that the incumbents have done just enough to avoid getting pushed down by a 4-3 Ms4w, despite the fact that Tsushimanada won his Day 15 “exchange bout” with Takakento [EDIT: the four exchanges are now confirmed, with Tsushimanada indeed missing out].

We’ll find out about the Juryo promotions in a couple of days; for the rest, we’ll have to wait until the banzuke is released on Christmas!

Here’s a quick recap of where things stand going into senshuraku. First, in honor of Bruce:

Darwin Bouts!

Eight rikishi head into Day 15 with 7-7 records, their destiny yet to be decided. So we could have had four Darwin bouts, but some of the pairings had already taken place, and that, combined with other scheduling considerations, led the torikumi makers to give us only two: Hokuseiho vs. Ura and Gonoyama vs. Shonnanoumi. The head-to-head between the Giant and the Magician stands at 1-1; Ura is also in the running for a career-first Komusubi promotion if he wins. Gonoyama and Shonannoumi have a six-bout rivalry going back to Juryo, with the former leading 4-2. That’s nothing, however, compared to Takayasu vs. Tamawashi (both 9-5), who’ve met on the dohyo 35 times dating back to 2012, splitting those bouts 18-17.

Yusho Race

Ozeki Kirishima (12-2) turned back the challenge of M8w Atamifuji (11-3) to claim pole position going into Day 15. If he can bear fellow Ozeki Takakeisho (9-5), or if Atamifuji falls to Sekiwake Kotonowaka (10-4), Kirishima takes the yusho. Otherwise, the two have a rematch for all the marbles. A championship by Kirishima would set up a Yokozuna run in January, and I am sure he’d like to clinch it with a 13th win, especially since that would also give him the outright record for most wins in 2023. A playoff loss could be considered a yusho equivalent, but 12 wins and a loss to a maegashira would be a much shakier foundation for a promotion claim.

San’yaku

Kotonowaka (10-4) will keep his Ozeki run going, although 11 wins would make the January target more attainable. Daieisho (9-5) would also like a win to extend his run. Wakamotoharu will vacate his rank after four tournaments at Sekiwake, and will fall out of san’yaku altogether for the first time in a year. Since his slot is supernumerary, we should be back down to two Sekiwake in January. Hokutofuji’s latest tenure at Komusubi won’t be any longer than his previous ones. Fellow Komusubi Abi (6-8) will likewise fall back into the rank-and-file. Atamifuji, M3e Takayasu (9-5), M1w Ura (7-7), and M5w Midorifuji (9-5) are in a tight race for the open Komusubi slots.

Makuuchi – Juryo Exchanges

We have three clear demotions: Kotoeko, Roga, and Kitanowaka. There are four strong promotion cases: Kotoshoho, Onosato, Bushozan, and Shimazuumi. Since 4 doesn’t equal 3, we need one more demotion candidate. There are two candidates for that dubious honor: Nishikifuji and Tohakuryu. At the moment, Nishikifuji would be the first of them to go, but if he wins and Tohakuryu loses, their roles would be reversed. In any case, one of them is going down for sure, and both are toast with a loss.

There are three candidates for a 5th promotion: J1e Aoiyama (7-7), who’ll go up with a win but is out of contention with a loss, J4w Mitoryu (9-5), and J4e Daiamami (8-6). Daiamami must win and hope the other two lose, in which scenario he’d go up with losses by Tohakuryu and Nishikifuji, but might not replace either of them if they win. Mitoryu will go up with a win unless Aoiyama wins. Losses by all three promotion candidates would leave only Mitoryu with a promotion chance, but he’d probably need losses by Tohakuryu and Nishikifuji. Confusing, I know!

Juryo – Makushita Exchanges

Going into Day 14, the first three Makushita-Juryo exchanges were clear. Hakuyozan, Takerufuji, and Oshoumi will swap places with Hakuoho, Hitoshi, and Azumaryu. Two exciting sekitori debuts and one meh return. Today Tochimusashi defeated Chiyosakae, assuring his return to Juryo. Chiyosakae now has a demotable record, but Tenshoho and Takakento could still end up “ahead” of him in the demotion queue. They are matched up with the remaining promotion candidates, Kitadaichi and Tsushimanada, respectively. If both incumbents win, they stay, and Chiyosakae gets exchanged with Tochimusashi. Losses by one or both of them, combined with a Chiyosakae loss, will give us five or six exchanges. If win by one of Tenshoho and Takakento, plus a win by Chiyosakae, would make things complicated—it’s not clear if Kitadaichi/Tsushimanada would get exchanged with Chiyosakae in this scenario, with Ms3w Kitadaichi more likely to do so than Ms4w Tsushimanada.

Come back tomorrow to see how everything shakes out!

How fast the tournaments go! It seems like the Kyushu basho just started, but we only have the final weekend of action left. Let’s recap where things stand going into the home stretch.

Yusho Race

This is down to two men: Ozeki Kirishima, who is back after a bit of a cold spell that followed his March yusho and May promotion, and the youngster M8w Atamifuji, who is in the yusho race for the second consecutive tournament. Both sport impressive 11-2 records that are two wins clear of anyone else, and they clash on Day 14, guaranteeing the winner at least 12 wins and eliminating all others from the race. The winner will be in pole position going into Day 15, although the right combination of results could see a playoff rematch between the two.

San’yaku

With Kotonowaka (9-4) now limited to at most 11 wins, we’re not getting a new Ozeki, although he can keep the run going by getting to double digits. Wakamotoharu will vacate his rank after four tournaments at Sekiwake, and will fall out of san’yaku altogether for the first time in a year. Since his slot is supernumerary, we may be back down to two Sekiwake in January. Hokutofuji’s latest tenure at Komusubi won’t be any longer than his previous ones. Fellow Komusubi Abi (6-7) must win out to maintain his rank. Atamifuji, M3e Takayasu (8-5), and M5w Midorifuji (9-4) are in a tight race for sany’aku promotion, with M1w Ura (6-7) not out of it if he can win out.

Makuuchi – Juryo Exchanges

We now have three demotable records in makuuchi: Nishikifuji, Roga, and Kitanowaka, though none are completely unsalvageable yet. Absent Kotoeko should be the first to go down, and the first opening is definitively spoken for by Kotoshoho. Onosato has a promotable record and would be very unlucky to miss out; one more win will make his promotion certain. The rest of the promotion queue is Bushozan, Shimazuumi, Aoiyama (who would get priority if he can find his 8th win), and Mitoryu. Tohakuryu needs two wins for safety, and might be okay with one, while Takarafuji needs one by the numbers, but may be safe already anyway.

Juryo – Makushita Exchanges

In a battle of youth vs. wisdom, youth prevailed, with 19-year-old Isegahama phenom Ms42w Satorufuji (30-5 career record in 5 basho; two yusho) turning the tables on 37-year old wily veteran Ms11e Kitaharima, who knocked him out of the Sandanme title race in September, to take the Makushita yusho and knock Kitaharima out of the promotion picture. Both should be ranked in the Ms1-Ms5 promotion zone in January, where they could well meet again.

After today’s results, the first three Makushita-Juryo exchanges are clear. Hakuyozan, Takerufuji, and Oshoumi will swap places with Hakuoho, Hitoshi, and Azumaryu. Two exciting sekitori debuts and one meh return. Tomorrow, it’s Tochimusashi vs. Chiyosakae in what is likely to end up as a direct exchange bout; Tochimusashi would be 4th in line with a win, and Chiyosakae would be demotable with a loss, although others could still end up in the demotion queue ahead of him, and conversely a win wouldn’t leave him safe. Among the other incumbents who are not safe yet, Akua still needs a win, while Chiyomaru, Tenshoho, and Takakento need 2 apiece, although it’s debatable what sort of promotion cases could force down Akua even if he ended 5-10, or the other three with one more win. None are paired up tomorrow, so depending on those results, we may see them up against the remaining regular promotion candidates: Kitadaichi and Tsushimanada. Ms6w Kayo (5-1) and Ms6e Wakatakakage (4-2) sit just below the “invisible line” separating the Ms1-Ms5 promotion zone from the rest of the division, but could still potentially be in the conversation if they win and a lot of other results break just right, though realistically they’ll be looking to stake a strong promotion claim in January.

Thankfully, it doesn’t, and we can look forward to four more exciting days of sumo. But let’s take a look at what would change in san’yaku and in the top division if the basho ended today.

First, we’d have two new Komusubi and a new Sekiwake. K1w Hokutofuji’s (3-8) demotion is sealed, while K1e Abi (4-7) can’t afford another loss. S1w Wakamotoharu has the same 4-7 record, so another loss would cost him his rank, but he could limit his fall to Komusubi if he finishes 7-8. At the moment, we’d have new Sekiwake Takayasu (M3e, 7-4) and new Komusubi Midorifuji (M5w, 8-3) and Atamifuji (M8w, 9-2).

Oh, and we could get a new Ozeki. S2e Kotonowaka (9-2) came into this tournament with 20 wins while ranked in san’yaku in the two prior tournaments. If he wins out, he’ll get the nod for sure. 12 wins might also be enough, especially if they come with a yusho. Anything less, and he’ll have to try again in January.

As for Makuuchi-Juryo exchanges, nothing is set in stone yet, but right now we’d have four rikishi on each side of the line trading divisions. J1w Kotoshoho (8-3) would have to have a terrible finish and terrible luck to miss out on a quick return to the top division. J2w Shimazuumi (7-4), J1e Aoiyama (6-5) and J5e Onosato (8-3) are in a good position but still have some work to do. Injury victim M10w Kotoeko (2-8-1) is set to fall if he can’t reenter and pick up a couple of wins. The other endangered incumbents, in order, are M16e Roga (3-8), M17e Kitanowaka (4-7), M15e Tohakuryu (3-8), M16w Nishikifuji (4-7), and M13e Takarafuji (3-8). Given the current odd number of rikishi in Makuuchi, we should see some potential exchange bouts down the stretch, starting with Shimazuumi’s attempt to get his kachi-koshi while pushing down Tohakuryu tomorrow.