Congratulations to Ozeki Kirishima on a somewhat quiet but powerful 13-2 yusho! In the end, he finished two victories clear of his closest pursuers (Sekiwake Kotonowaka and rank-and-filers Atamifuji and Ichiyamamoto), and a similar performance at Hatsu could give us a new Yokozuna! With the November results in the books, let’s take our customary preliminary look at how they’re likely to reshuffle the rankings ahead of the January tournament.
Yokozuna and Ozeki
For now, Yokozuna Terunofuji will retain his position at the top of the banzuke. The Ozeki will get reshuffled based on their Kyushu win totals, with the new order being Kirishima (13-2), Hoshoryu (10-5), Takakeisho (9-6).
San’yaku
S1e Daieisho (9-6) and S2e Kotonowaka (11-4) successfully defended their ranks, while S1w Wakamotoharu (6-9) will be a maegashira in January. Daiesho has 19 wins over the past two tournaments, so mathematically he needs a 14-1 to hit the 33-win benchmark for Ozeki promotion, but his 60 wins in 2023 (trailing only Kiribayama’s 62), with four double-digit performances, could lower his target. Kotonowaka is in a stronger position, with 20 wins over two basho, and could get there with 12-13 wins in January.
The revolving door at Komusubi will continue, with neither Abi (6-9) nor Hokutofuji (5-10) able to hold rank. Their spots will go to former Ozeki Takayasu and fan favorite Ura, who will finally make his san’yaku debut! With Wakamotoharu’s demotion and no strong claims for extra san’yaku slots, the named ranks will shrink to 8, and M17w will reappear on the banzuke.
Upper Maegashira
This area of the banzuke will feature the trio demoted from san’yaku (Wakamotoharu, Abi, Hokutofuji), some well-performing maegashira (Atamifuji, Midorifuji, Gonoyama, Ryuden), and some holdovers with losing records who did just well enough to stay (Tobizaru, Shodai, Nishikigi).
Makuuchi-Juryo Exchanges
This worked out very cleanly after Day 15 results. Kitanowaka, Kotoeko, Roga, Tohakuryu, and Nishikifuji have demotable records and will be fighting in the second division in January. And there are five rikishi with clear promotion cases to take their place: Kotoshoho, Onosato, Bushozan, Shimazuumi, and Aoiyama (7-7). Oh, and Kotoshoho won his third Juryo yusho, defeating Onosato in a playoff rematch of their regulation bout, which also went to Kotoshoho.
Juryo – Makushita Exchanges
Four Makushita-Juryo exchanges are clear. Hakuyozan, Takerufuji, Oshoumi, and Tochimusashi will swap places with Hakuoho, Hitoshi, Azumaryu, and Takakento. One other exchange is possible—Chiyosakae or Tenshoho could be sent down in order to bring up Tsushimanada—but I am guessing that the incumbents have done just enough to avoid getting pushed down by a 4-3 Ms4w, despite the fact that Tsushimanada won his Day 15 “exchange bout” with Takakento [EDIT: the four exchanges are now confirmed, with Tsushimanada indeed missing out].
We’ll find out about the Juryo promotions in a couple of days; for the rest, we’ll have to wait until the banzuke is released on Christmas!
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What about Wakatakakage heading back to Juryo?
He was ranked outside the promotion zone and didn’t get a 7-0. He’d only be 7th in the line for promotion. He should be near the top of makushita in January and a good score should see him in juryo in March.
Could Kotonowaka and Daieisho go S1e/S1w respectively? Or does Daieisho stay S1e?
they used to swap them based on record, like ozeki, but more recently they haven’t been, unless the difference in records is big, two wins might not be enough
I know U‘re often mentioning the invisible line after Ms5, but still Kayo‘s 6:1 from Ms6 seems clearly stronger than Tsushimanada‘s 4:3 from Ms4! Are there any reasons to see that differently (like a heavier schedule) or is it just tradition?
Some combination of tradition and the fact that the Ms1-Ms4 guys mostly fight each other and juryo opponents. For what it’s worth, I don’t think either of them is going up, and when it comes to decisions within the division, Kayo should be ranked higher of the two (probably at Ms1e).
Tsushimanada had a harder schedule, yeah. Two juryo guys and nobody lower than Ms5w, and 5 of 7 opponents outranked him. Kayo only fought one opponent above Ms5w, and outranked all but two of his opponents.
Thanks, Iksumo and KZV, for your answers. I agree that it‘s more than just tradition.
The difference in the schedule is very surprising, regarding there is only one full rank between them. Ms1 to Ms5 are like the jo’i of Makushita.
Funny though (but somehow understandable now) that Tsushimanada is in front of Kayo in the promotion queue, but that he probably will be lower ranked than Kayo in Makushita if he‘ll miss Juryo. It‘s complicated…
It’s actually often called the Makushita jo’i. The slightly quirky thing is that the difference in schedule strength is most apparent between Ms4 and Ms5, though of course that changes with absences like Kiho’s
For quite a while I thought Takarafuji was going to get some seriously bad banzuke luck to finish his run at the record of consecutive makuuchi appearances. Until I remembered about Kotoeko! Phew – the Lustrous one still rolls on (for now)..
I decided to try my hand at predicting the entire top division banzuke. What do you think?
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Wh6TYYtG6gEZI5h_jPmC4EZ9JNtauGJN6HdrNA6fXxE/edit?usp=sharing
That’s a solid prediction; it differs from my first draft by a few minor rearrangements, and I have the guys coming up from juryo a little lower, but I’m still refining it.
Gonna miss Kotoeko fighting in Makuuchi. He’s been a mainstay for me since I started watching Sumo a few years ago
If he’s in fighting shape by January, he stands a good chance of bouncing right back up. Juryo doesn’t look like it’ll especially stacked next basho…
Looks like Tsushimanada missed out.
Yup, as expected. They’ve been showing a lot of leniency to incumbents at the expense of borderline promotion candidates. He sure reacted like he thought he was coming up when he beat Takakento, but Chiyosakae’s win kept him out