Here’s a quick recap of where things stand going into senshuraku. First, in honor of Bruce:

Darwin Bouts!

Eight rikishi head into Day 15 with 7-7 records, their destiny yet to be decided. So we could have had four Darwin bouts, but some of the pairings had already taken place, and that, combined with other scheduling considerations, led the torikumi makers to give us only two: Hokuseiho vs. Ura and Gonoyama vs. Shonnanoumi. The head-to-head between the Giant and the Magician stands at 1-1; Ura is also in the running for a career-first Komusubi promotion if he wins. Gonoyama and Shonannoumi have a six-bout rivalry going back to Juryo, with the former leading 4-2. That’s nothing, however, compared to Takayasu vs. Tamawashi (both 9-5), who’ve met on the dohyo 35 times dating back to 2012, splitting those bouts 18-17.

Yusho Race

Ozeki Kirishima (12-2) turned back the challenge of M8w Atamifuji (11-3) to claim pole position going into Day 15. If he can bear fellow Ozeki Takakeisho (9-5), or if Atamifuji falls to Sekiwake Kotonowaka (10-4), Kirishima takes the yusho. Otherwise, the two have a rematch for all the marbles. A championship by Kirishima would set up a Yokozuna run in January, and I am sure he’d like to clinch it with a 13th win, especially since that would also give him the outright record for most wins in 2023. A playoff loss could be considered a yusho equivalent, but 12 wins and a loss to a maegashira would be a much shakier foundation for a promotion claim.

San’yaku

Kotonowaka (10-4) will keep his Ozeki run going, although 11 wins would make the January target more attainable. Daieisho (9-5) would also like a win to extend his run. Wakamotoharu will vacate his rank after four tournaments at Sekiwake, and will fall out of san’yaku altogether for the first time in a year. Since his slot is supernumerary, we should be back down to two Sekiwake in January. Hokutofuji’s latest tenure at Komusubi won’t be any longer than his previous ones. Fellow Komusubi Abi (6-8) will likewise fall back into the rank-and-file. Atamifuji, M3e Takayasu (9-5), M1w Ura (7-7), and M5w Midorifuji (9-5) are in a tight race for the open Komusubi slots.

Makuuchi – Juryo Exchanges

We have three clear demotions: Kotoeko, Roga, and Kitanowaka. There are four strong promotion cases: Kotoshoho, Onosato, Bushozan, and Shimazuumi. Since 4 doesn’t equal 3, we need one more demotion candidate. There are two candidates for that dubious honor: Nishikifuji and Tohakuryu. At the moment, Nishikifuji would be the first of them to go, but if he wins and Tohakuryu loses, their roles would be reversed. In any case, one of them is going down for sure, and both are toast with a loss.

There are three candidates for a 5th promotion: J1e Aoiyama (7-7), who’ll go up with a win but is out of contention with a loss, J4w Mitoryu (9-5), and J4e Daiamami (8-6). Daiamami must win and hope the other two lose, in which scenario he’d go up with losses by Tohakuryu and Nishikifuji, but might not replace either of them if they win. Mitoryu will go up with a win unless Aoiyama wins. Losses by all three promotion candidates would leave only Mitoryu with a promotion chance, but he’d probably need losses by Tohakuryu and Nishikifuji. Confusing, I know!

Juryo – Makushita Exchanges

Going into Day 14, the first three Makushita-Juryo exchanges were clear. Hakuyozan, Takerufuji, and Oshoumi will swap places with Hakuoho, Hitoshi, and Azumaryu. Two exciting sekitori debuts and one meh return. Today Tochimusashi defeated Chiyosakae, assuring his return to Juryo. Chiyosakae now has a demotable record, but Tenshoho and Takakento could still end up “ahead” of him in the demotion queue. They are matched up with the remaining promotion candidates, Kitadaichi and Tsushimanada, respectively. If both incumbents win, they stay, and Chiyosakae gets exchanged with Tochimusashi. Losses by one or both of them, combined with a Chiyosakae loss, will give us five or six exchanges. If win by one of Tenshoho and Takakento, plus a win by Chiyosakae, would make things complicated—it’s not clear if Kitadaichi/Tsushimanada would get exchanged with Chiyosakae in this scenario, with Ms3w Kitadaichi more likely to do so than Ms4w Tsushimanada.

Come back tomorrow to see how everything shakes out!