How fast the tournaments go! It seems like the Kyushu basho just started, but we only have the final weekend of action left. Let’s recap where things stand going into the home stretch.

Yusho Race

This is down to two men: Ozeki Kirishima, who is back after a bit of a cold spell that followed his March yusho and May promotion, and the youngster M8w Atamifuji, who is in the yusho race for the second consecutive tournament. Both sport impressive 11-2 records that are two wins clear of anyone else, and they clash on Day 14, guaranteeing the winner at least 12 wins and eliminating all others from the race. The winner will be in pole position going into Day 15, although the right combination of results could see a playoff rematch between the two.

San’yaku

With Kotonowaka (9-4) now limited to at most 11 wins, we’re not getting a new Ozeki, although he can keep the run going by getting to double digits. Wakamotoharu will vacate his rank after four tournaments at Sekiwake, and will fall out of san’yaku altogether for the first time in a year. Since his slot is supernumerary, we may be back down to two Sekiwake in January. Hokutofuji’s latest tenure at Komusubi won’t be any longer than his previous ones. Fellow Komusubi Abi (6-7) must win out to maintain his rank. Atamifuji, M3e Takayasu (8-5), and M5w Midorifuji (9-4) are in a tight race for sany’aku promotion, with M1w Ura (6-7) not out of it if he can win out.

Makuuchi – Juryo Exchanges

We now have three demotable records in makuuchi: Nishikifuji, Roga, and Kitanowaka, though none are completely unsalvageable yet. Absent Kotoeko should be the first to go down, and the first opening is definitively spoken for by Kotoshoho. Onosato has a promotable record and would be very unlucky to miss out; one more win will make his promotion certain. The rest of the promotion queue is Bushozan, Shimazuumi, Aoiyama (who would get priority if he can find his 8th win), and Mitoryu. Tohakuryu needs two wins for safety, and might be okay with one, while Takarafuji needs one by the numbers, but may be safe already anyway.

Juryo – Makushita Exchanges

In a battle of youth vs. wisdom, youth prevailed, with 19-year-old Isegahama phenom Ms42w Satorufuji (30-5 career record in 5 basho; two yusho) turning the tables on 37-year old wily veteran Ms11e Kitaharima, who knocked him out of the Sandanme title race in September, to take the Makushita yusho and knock Kitaharima out of the promotion picture. Both should be ranked in the Ms1-Ms5 promotion zone in January, where they could well meet again.

After today’s results, the first three Makushita-Juryo exchanges are clear. Hakuyozan, Takerufuji, and Oshoumi will swap places with Hakuoho, Hitoshi, and Azumaryu. Two exciting sekitori debuts and one meh return. Tomorrow, it’s Tochimusashi vs. Chiyosakae in what is likely to end up as a direct exchange bout; Tochimusashi would be 4th in line with a win, and Chiyosakae would be demotable with a loss, although others could still end up in the demotion queue ahead of him, and conversely a win wouldn’t leave him safe. Among the other incumbents who are not safe yet, Akua still needs a win, while Chiyomaru, Tenshoho, and Takakento need 2 apiece, although it’s debatable what sort of promotion cases could force down Akua even if he ended 5-10, or the other three with one more win. None are paired up tomorrow, so depending on those results, we may see them up against the remaining regular promotion candidates: Kitadaichi and Tsushimanada. Ms6w Kayo (5-1) and Ms6e Wakatakakage (4-2) sit just below the “invisible line” separating the Ms1-Ms5 promotion zone from the rest of the division, but could still potentially be in the conversation if they win and a lot of other results break just right, though realistically they’ll be looking to stake a strong promotion claim in January.