The Natsu banzuke is out. So, how did my banzuke prediction do? Of the 42 Makuuchi rikishi, 28 were placed at the exact rank, and 3 more were at the correct rank but on the wrong side. That leaves 11 “misses”, 6 of which were off by half a rank, 4 by one full rank, and one (Nishikigi) by a rank and a half. I was most unsure about what exactly was going to happen at the ranks from M5 to M10, and most of the misses happened here, but there were some other head-scratching decisions by the banzuke committee.
What my guess got right:
- All the sanyaku ranks, including S1w Kirishima ahead of K1e Takayasu and no extra Komusubi slot for M1e Wakamotoharu.
- The identity of promotions from and demotions to Juryo. Roga, Kayo, Tamashoho, and Tochitaikai made the grade, while Kusano and Hidenoumi did not. Nishikifuji, Shirokuma, Takarafuji, and Mitakeumi dropped out of the top division (Mitakeumi for the first time since his 2015 debut, while Nishikigi and Asakoryu hung on by the skin of their teeth.
What my guess got wrong:
- Switched M2w Gonoyama and M3e Tamawashi. Apparently Gonoyama got the benefit of being in the joi.
- Got the order of M4w Ichiyamamoto, M5e Ura, M5w Chiyoshoma, and M6e Oshoma completely wrong. The placement of Ura, who posted a 7-8 record at M5e, ahead of Chiyoshoma, who went 6-9 at M2w, might be the most baffling banzuke decision I’ve ever seen. By the usual banzuke math, Chiyoshoma deserved to be half a rank ahead (5w vs 6e). He was also higher-ranked and had a much tougher schedule. Plus the banzuke committee usually tries to ensure at least a minimal demotion for 7-8 records unless there is no plausible alternative. I really don’t know what to make of this one.
- M8w Kinbozan ended up ahead of M9e Aonishiki and M9w Midorifuji. Apparently, like with Gonoyama above, his higher rank overcame a half-rank difference in computed rank.
- My guess had Nishikigi at the very last rank, M18e, because the math placed him in Juryo. The banzuke committee ranked him at M16w. I can see the rationale for placing him ahead of M17e Tamashoho and M18e Tochitaikai, who were coming up from Juryo, but then why didn’t M17w Asakoryu, who computed to the exact same rank as Nishikigi, get the same treatment?
The basho starts in less than two weeks, on Sunday May 11! Stay tuned for Tachiai coverage leading up to and during the tournament. There are many storylines to follow, headlined by whether Yokozuna Hoshoryu can put the March disappointment behind him and if the March champion, Ozeki Onosato, can join him at sumo’s highest rank.
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Agree that Either Nishikigi & Asakoryu OR Tamashoho & Tochitaikai should have been the bottom two ranks.
Instead they placed Nishikigi & Asakoryu in the bottom two West ranks and Tamashoho & Tochitaikai in the bottom two East ranks.
I always struggle with where to place the top Juryo man/men when they are well separated from the other promotees.
Speaking of the bottom, I wonder if Hokutofuji and Mitakeumi will announce their retirement soon. Besides giant Shonnanoumi’s awful soft sumo (he used to be a favourite of mine after I heard how hard his father pushed him), the former Ozeki has really stood out in the dohyo in terms of how weak he looks. Lower Maegashira and top Juryo has a conspicuously low standard, but I hope it improves this year.
Let’s see if Hokutofuji actually shows up to fight in Makushita; if not, he’s most likely done. I can see Mitakeumi giving it a shot to make it back up from J1e, depending on how his body is doing…
I think Chiyoshoma was put where he was because of dishonorable sumo to win a kinboshi through henka.
That it was such a negative-sumo move that, given the chance, they made a statement.
Yea right. They just wanted Ura as high as possible.
My prediction was very much the same as yours, but initially I had 3 komusubi slots: K1e Wakatakakage, K1w Wakamotoharu, and Takayasu forcing open a third slot due to his performance. Some friends knowledgeable than me in sumo suggested the current komusubi situation and I changed my prediction, albeit with a little resistance, to that.
I need to know, Wakamotoharu deserves that komusubi slot with his 9-6 at M1. Abi had 8-7 at M2 early 2024 and was promoted to K. The Waka brothers were higher ranked than Taka, so I should think they get precedence. Why was Wakamotoharu denied?
Yes, he deserved a slot, but the others deserved it more than him, so they got it. There are only two Komusubi slots to fill – they CAN open other ones, but only with extraordinary performances.
Thanks for the answer. I knew komusubi slot requirements were stringent, but I have to remind myself it is even more so than I think. But if we go with that approach, some might argue Takayasu should be M1. In my mind I adhere too rigidly to higher rank takes precedence, I guess. Takayasu deserves komusubi, but you have to feel for Wakamotoharu. Another aspect for both Wakamotoharu and Takayasu to consider is that they both are proven Sanyaku men, with experience there, so I wonder if that aids or harms their promotion considerations?
Until about 20 years ago, they tended to open extra slots for anyone who earned one. Then it flipped to, we’ll only do it if absolutely forced to. Not sure why. In terms of Takayasu vs. WMH, the former’s record was so much better that he deserved to be ~3 ranks higher, even starting from his lower rank. That’s why he’s on the east side ahead of WTK.
Fascinating, I wonder if financial considerations from the sumo bosses play a role, because more K slots means paying more money? And I think I heard somewhere that M1 to M5 all face the sanyaku, so an example of say 10-5 at M4 and 9-6 at M2 might be considered equal, but both better say compared to an 11-4 at M6. Its frustrating but also very fun puzzling out the numbers and ranks, but at the end of the day we are not privy to the in camera considerations of the sumo decision-makers and the intricacies of conduct and relationships. I think I prefer the mystery of sumo to the statistics, but in the same breath (and I know I am in a despised minority), I am still rankled by Hoshoryu’s Yokozuna promotion, with the Yokozuna mystique losing some of its aura due to that decision. But again, numbers are not law, and the sumo business has its own gears to oil, gears we are not always privy to. I will trust in Onosato to right things, he has the aura about him. I love reading these comments, so many knowledgeable folks here, thanks for guiding me and exploring the sumo world’s intricacies.
Isn’t Ichiyamamoto equally baffling with Ura? Both of them were unchanged after 7-8s, when there were candidates who could easily have slid above them. A lot of the others were coin tosses, but The Ich must have brought some nice omiyage back for the SA from one of the provincial tours (and Ura is Ura)..
It’s slightly less baffling only because he was half a rank higher. It’s still highly unusual to place him ahead of Chiyoshoma in this scenario.
I’m not sure I understand – he was 4W and stayed there, and Ura was 5E and stayed there. Isn’t that effectively the same thing?
That part of it, yes, but when you look at Chiyoshoma’s placement, the math had him effectively tied with Ichi, but clearly ahead of Ura, so the fact that they ranked Ura ahead of him is more baffling than that they did so with Ichi. Leaving a 7-8 in place isn’t that unusual, but I’ve never seen a case of someone who was higher-ranked and better-placed by the math end up behind.
Another way to look at it is that Chiyoshoma and Kinbozan were exactly where they should be. They each had 6-9 records and were demoted exactly 3 ranks. Its as if the Committee was working its way down the Banzuke and placed those two where they should be, before placing lower ranking rikishi either higher or lower than they should be, because those positions were already filled.
It’s strange though to do that with them and not with others; e.g. Tobizaru was also 6-9 and ranked just below Chiyoshoma and above Kinbozan, but he ended up with an extra half a rank demotion.
Well, shoot !
My idea of saying that Takarafuji would be saved by getting the M18 rank and having Asakoryu be the one going down to Juryo instead was proven to be totally wrong. >_<
What to learn from all this……… never go against Iksumo-oyakata’s better judgement ! ^_^’
You can also read the excellent article by lksumo describing Banzuke math https://tachiai.org/2023/06/11/nagoya-banzuke-crystal-ball-4/