After my preliminary look at what the May results mean for the July banzuke, I am going to take a shot at a more detailed banzuke prediction. These posts used to be a regular Tachiai feature, but I’ve been a bit remiss in writing them recently. In order to preserve some of the challenge for those who play Guess The Banzuke (GTB), I’ll point out the biggest question marks but won’t necessarily give my answers, at least in part because I haven’t made final decisions on some of them.

Methodology: Basic Banzuke Math

If you read my promotion/demotion posts, you often see me talking about where a rikishi should rank “by the numbers.” What do I mean? It’s not giving away any big secrets to note that banzuke movements in Makuuchi (aside from San’yaku) and Juryo roughly obey the following algorithm:

1. Start with the rikishi’s current rank.
2. Move the rikishi up a rank for every win, and down a rank for every loss. Or, equivalently, take the difference between the number of wins and losses and move the rikishi up or down by that number of ranks.

To give a concrete example, M4w Nishikigi (9-6) should move up 3 ranks, to M1w.

Now, if this were all there was to banzuke construction, we wouldn’t need a banzuke committee, and GTB wouldn’t be much of a game. The first problem, of course, is that we need to fill each rank with exactly one wrestler, whether or not anyone computes to that rank by the algorithm above. If you run the numbers on the current banzuke, you’ll find, for instance, that no one computes to M1e, while 3 wrestlers compute to M5e. The obvious first solution is to sort the rikishi by their computed ranks and place them on the banzuke in order, and this is basically what one does, but this still doesn’t resolve everything.

For starters, as we’ve already seen, there are ties. How do you rank-order M4e Ura (7-8), M6e Meisei (8-7), and M14e Asanoyama (12-3), who all compute to M5e? Also, a simple rank ordering can violate basic rules of banzuke construction, such as that a wrestler with a losing record should not be promoted (this problem often arises for those with 7-8 records). There are also questions about how to handle promotions/demotions for the San’yaku ranks and between Juryo and Makuuchi, what to do with extreme winning and losing records, etc. While some insights can be gleaned from past banzuke, there are no clear rules, and banzuke committee decisions can be inconsistent from one banzuke to the next and even for similar scenarios within a given banzuke, possibly in part due to subjective factors that outsiders aren’t privy to. This is the art of banzuke prediction, and the challenge of GTB.

The Named Ranks

This part is easy. Yusho winner Y1e Terunofuji (14-1) will maintain his rank as the sole (East) Yokozuna. Ozeki Takakeisho (8-7) will be joined at the rank by the newly promoted Kirishima (11-4). The other three Sekiwake—S1w Hoshoryu (11-4), S2e Daieisho (10-5), and S2w Wakamotoharu (10-5)—will remain at the third-highest rank and carry Ozeki runs into July. There are a couple of minor wrinkles in the exact placements here, which I will leave you to figure out on your own. At Komusubi, K1e Kotonowaka (8-7) will keep his rank, but absent K1w Wakatakakage and 6-9 K2e Shodai with lose theirs. There is one obvious candidate to fill the empty K1w slot: M1e Abi (8-7), who should be Komusubi by the numbers and is the highest maegashira by computed rank order.

The New Joi

These are the maegashira who fill out the top 16 round-robin along with the San’yaku ranks. Nominally, the joi will extend down to M4. These ranks should be occupied by the other two kachi-koshi survivors from the “zone of death”, M4w Nishikigi (9-6) and M3e Tobizaru (8-7), along with falling Shodai, M1w Midorifuji (6-9), and M4e Ura (7-8), rising M6 duo of Mitakeumi (9-6) and Meisei (8-7), and, last but not least, former Ozeki M14e Asanoyama (12-3), who should get a full tour of the named ranks next time. The order by the banzuke math would make the ranks M1e Nishikigi, M1w Tobizaru, M2e Shodai, M2w Mitakeumi, M3e Midorifuji, M3w-M4w Ura/Meisei/Asanoyama. Ura can’t rise above M4e, of course, so that probably leaves Meisei at M3w, and the only question is whether Ura keeps his rank with a 7-8 score or gets bumped down one spot by the much-lower ranked Asanoyama.

Mid-Maegashira

Here we hit a bit of a hole in the banzuke, as the falling rikishi yet to be placed had atrocious records, and there weren’t many winning scores in this part of the banzuke. Pulling up M9w Hiradoumi (9-6) to M5e is not too much of a stretch, but after that we should see some very lucky promotions. I don’t see a better candidate than M9e Onosho (8-7) for M5w, even though this is an over-promotion by 2.5 ranks. And M11e Hokuseiho (8-7) and M16w Oho (11-4) are the best remaining choices to occupy M6. M2e Takayasu’s late entry, which garnered him 3 wins, allows us to fill M7e by giving him a gentle demotion, after which we can stop the bleeding by keeping the 7-8 trio of M7w Tamawashi, M8e Sadanoumi, and M8w Takanosho at their ranks, and dropping M7e Hokutofuji (6-9) to M9e.

Bottom Half of the Maegashira Ranks

Everything to this point has been fairly clear-cut, aside from possible slight rearrangements. But now we have wrestlers with vastly different ranks and records vying for spots. Strictly by the math, Juryo champion J1e Gonoyama (14-1) should already have been placed, but the treatment of Asanoyama and Ichinojo suggests that promotions from Juryo never make it that high. We also have to decide where to slot in J1w Shonannoumi (11-4) and regulation co-leader J8w Ochiai (14-1), who will appear on the next banzuke under his new shikona Hakuoho. Among the incumbents, we have four rikishi with winning records still to place: M12w Kotoeko (8-7), M14w Myogiryu (9-6), M13e Chiyoshoma (8-7) and M15 Tsurugisho (9-6). Then there are the highly ranked rikishi without a lot of wins: M3w Nishikifuji (3-12), M5e Kinbozan (4-11), K1w Wakatakakage (0-0-15), M5w Kotoshoho (2-13), and M2w Endo (0-7-8). There’s also M11w Daishoho (6-9) and the M10 duo of Ryuden and Takarafuji, both 5-10. Finally, who gets the final two spots in the division? It’s between M12e Aoiyama (5-10), who won on the final day to be just safe by the numbers, and J8e Atamifuji (13-2) and J3e Bushozan (10-5), who’ve both done more than enough to earn promotion. Endo could technically be considered demotable, but this would be extremely unusual given his rank.

So how will this all shake out? Honestly, I have no idea, but here’s one possible draft:

9e Hokutofuji	9w Kinbozan
10e Nishikifuji	10w Wakatakakage
11e Myogiryu	11w Kotoeko
12e Chiyoshoma	12w Tsurugisho
13e Kotoshoho	13w Endo
14e Gonoyama	14w Daishoho
15e Ryuden	15w Takarafuji
16e Shonannoumi	16w Ochiai
17e Aoiyama	17w Atamifuji

Have a better idea? What do you think I got wrong, in big ways or small? Let me know in the comments!

Who Is Leaving Makuuchi?

M13w Ichinojo has retired. Ms16e Mitoryu (5-10) and Ms15e Ichiyamamoto (4-11) will without a doubt be ranked in Juryo, and M17e Kagayaki (7-8) is all-but-certain to join them. We know that he’s benefited from extremely lenient treatment in the past, and it’s possible to survive with a borderline make-koshi from the last rank, especially with M17w reappearing on the next banzuke due to the shrinking San’yaku, but the promotion cases of Atamifuji and Bushozan ought to be strong enough to push down someone with a demotable record.