The Oyakata Reassignment Thought Experiment

The venerable John Gunning dropped a banger in the Japan Times last week, discussing the fallout of the Hokuseiho bullying scandal and the Miyagino beya caretaker drama. Developments in the latter story have seen the public and media barred from the training facilities at the heya’s Osaka lodgings, as new temporary boss Tamagaki tries to steady the ship.

Tamagaki is the former Komusubi Tomonohana, and has been drafted in from Oshima beya to restore the viability of the troubled stable. In his article, Gunning expands on a point that frequent Tachiai reader/commenter/participant Asashosakari and I were discussing recently on Sumo Forum, that one of the issues that could be contributing to problems at heya that lack oversight is the wildly uneven distribution of oyakata at stables in the Kyokai:

“Despite there being 105 elder name shares in the JSA, and (currently) just 45 stables, the distribution of the former among the latter is far from even. Musashigawa stable for example has 14 wrestlers and just one elder… while in Kasugano stable, seven former top division men supervise 16 wrestlers. A more even apportioning of that experience and wisdom would go a long way toward preventing situations where immature 21- and 22-year-old wrestlers are left in control of groups of teenagers.” – John Gunning, The Japan Times

Now, before the conspiracy theorists start furiously pounding away at their keyboards, John and I have been seen in the same place at the same time, I couldn’t tell you anything about hurling and the only feelings I have for Manchester United are occasionally pity or loathing. But he is onto something and it’s rather in line with this excerpt from my Forum contribution:

“Another thing that hasn’t come up here is Takashima’s defection from Miyagino to Isenoumi a couple years ago. I don’t know if the real reason for this ever cropped up, and maybe he just didn’t want to be a part of what Hakuho was going to build, but you’d think that having a veteran presence at the heya (ie adult in the room) would help to hopefully mitigate some situations.

It seems absolutely nuts that Kasugano and Isenoumi account for 10% of all elder shares between just the two heya, and Kasugano has another 3 official staffers.

Now that everyone can be a sanyo, a good use of the role would be using their time to support new oyakata to help them develop. I could be wrong but newer shisho who have a sanyo or very senior oyakata in the backroom team (ie Oshima when he was Tomozuna, Ikazuchi with Irumagawa, Hanaregoma with Minatogawa, Oshiogawa with Oguruma, etc.) seem to have had it pretty smooth sailing so far.”

Before you make the point, I know, quoting yourself is weird and should be reserved for self-help and wellness influencers who repost their tweets on their main Instagram feed. But I digress.

I actually don’t believe heya consolidation is the answer, because while it potentially solves one problem it creates another issue in terms potentially pushing the declining rate of recruiting even further. But I do think a realignment of oyakata – and especially sanyo – makes a ton of sense.

Gunning points out a number of issues that would be caused by migration of oyakata, all of which are valid and you should go read the article. For the purposes of this thought exercise, let’s set up some ground rules:

  • No oyakata leave their existing ichimon (keeps power balance the same as it is now), with one exception
  • Prioritise support for new shisho (who inherited or opened stables in the last 5 years) by experienced oyakata and sanyo
  • Don’t move oyakata to experienced single shisho if a better option exists
  • Try to keep sub-family alignments in order to preserve culture (ie, among stables which branched from or share affiliations with other heya within the larger ichimon)
  • We will ignore the geographical locations of the heya. Obviously, in real life it would be a big deal for an oyakata based in the south of Tokyo to move to, for example, Chiba or Ibaraki prefectures. I think it’s difficult to do this as a thought experiment and consider the personal circumstances of people we don’t know all that much about.

Takasago Ichimon

  • Jinmaku (ex-Fujinoshin, 63) moves to Takasago from Hakkaku

Just one move here. I toyed with moving Tanigawa to Nishikido beya, as he’s spent 13 years coaching first at Hakkaku and then Kokonoe and is the best candidate to assume a heya. But Kokonoe has 25 rikishi and probably needs all four coaches. While Nishikido beya has been more or less dead since its own scandal(s) and has no one to inherit it, you can always move someone in closer to the time that the current shisho is ready to go.

So, the move that I did make is the soon-to-retire Jinmaku. Hakkaku beya has 18 rikishi, but in addition to the chairman of the association it’s also coached by a former shisho in Azumazeki and a future one in Kimigahama (Okinoumi).  Takasago-beya, meanwhile, has 24 rikishi of its own, but only two coaches at present and the shisho is one of the youngest and least experienced in the Kyokai with only 3 years as a coach before taking over as stable master amidst a scandal. While Wakamatsu (former Asanowaka) is also there, this provides a much better balance.

Tokitsukaze Ichimon

  • Kagamiyama (ex-Tagaryu, 66) moves to Arashio from Isenoumi
  • Michinoku (ex-Kirishima, 65) and Tatsutayama (ex-Sasshunnada, 66) move to Otowayama from Michinoku
  • Urakaze (ex-Shikishima, 53) moves to Arashio from Michinoku
  • Katsunoura (ex-Kirinishiki, 61) moves to Oitekaze from Isenoumi
  • Takashima (ex-Koboyama, 66) moves to Isegahama ichimon from Isenoumi

As referenced above, Isenoumi beya has 7 coaches for 15 rikishi, which is absolutely ridiculous. Let’s keep the former Oikari, Ikioi and Tosanoumi all in the heya with the shisho, as they were all Isenoumi-beya products. Kagamiyama recently shut down a basically dead heya and migrated to Isenoumi, and as a sanyo his services are better utilised with the relatively inexperienced Arashio oyakata, who has produced multiple sekitori and also seems to be an active recruiter.

Oitekaze oyakata is vastly experienced, but he has 20 rikishi that he oversees himself. Katsunoura is older than him, but by the time he reaches the mandatory retirement age, one of Oitekaze beya’s vast number of sekitori will be ready to take their steps into coaching anyway, so this can be a temporary move.

The other departure from Isenoumi beya will be Takashima. Whatever his reasons were for leaving Miyagino beya, he should certainly never have been allowed to take a fairly prestigious name out of that ichimon to go to a stable that was already overloaded with coaches, especially given the greater need for that share in Isegahama ichimon in future. It may be coincidental that Hokuseiho’s reign of terror is said to have begun in the summer of 2022, which is exactly when Takashima left Miyagino-beya.

Tatsutayama is formerly of Izutsu beya, so that’s why I found the fit for him as a sanyo who can provide senior support in Kakuryu’s new Otowayama beya. Finally, Michinoku beya closes in April and it’s said the rikishi will have their choice of stables to join within the ichimon. Word on the street is that Michinoku’s Ozeki and shisho will join up with Kakuryu, but there’s no reason for four coaches there so we’ll send Urakaze to Arashio beya.

Isegahama Ichimon

  • Takashima (ex-Koboyama, 66) moves to Ajigawa from Isenoumi

This is a tough one to project, as we have the ongoing Hakuho disciplinary issues, as well as a handful of potential names that may be needed soon.

There’s going to be a serious kabu crunch here soon, as Takarafuji and Terunofuji probably aren’t that long for the mawashi, and Isegahama is going to need to hand over his stable next year. So, we’re bringing the Takashima kabu back into the family where it should have stayed, and we’ll put him as a mentor to Ajigawa for the time being.

Every other shisho in the ichimon has a partner except for Asahiyama, who is much more experienced and also has quite a small heya of rikishi who are similar in rank. We’ll leave things as they are with respect to Tamagaki and Miyagino beya for now, as that situation will resolve itself shortly anyway.

Nishonoseki Ichimon

  • Kumegawa (ex-Kotoinazuma, 61) moves to Naruto from Sadogatake
  • Minatogawa (ex-Daitetsu, 63) moves to Nishonoseki from Hanaregoma
  • Minezaki (ex-Misugiiso, 67) moves to Shikoroyama from Shibatayama
  • Shiratama (ex-Kototsubaki, 63) accompanies Hidenoyama when the heya branches out from Sadogatake
  • Merge Otake beya into Minato beya when it probably closes next year

There aren’t many stables with a surplus of coaches in this large ichimon, apart from Sadogatake which will soon lose Hidenoyama oyakata to a branch-out. We also don’t want to deplete Sadogatake beya too much, because with 24 rikishi it’s easily one of the biggest heya in the sport.

So I’ve made five recommendations here, in an attempt to exercise restraint. Shibatayama beya, with just eight rikishi and a very senior shisho, doesn’t feel like the best home for a sanyo like Minezaki, a former stable master in his own right, despite their long standing connection. So, I’ve sent him to support ex-Homasho at Shikoroyama-beya where he is the new shisho following the former Terao’s passing. Homasho has plenty of seasoning as a coach, but as a large stable which has had some issues in the past, a veteran oyakata seems better placed to assist there.

Sadogatake beya ultimately gets its allocation reduced by half here, as the very senior Shiratama could accompany Hidenoyama upon his branch-out to offer senior support. Hidenoyama, presumably, will be slightly reducing the overall number of deshi at Sadogatake when he leaves, anyway. We’ll also send Kumegawa oyakata to Naruto beya, to offer support to an oyakata who has shown tremendous scouting and recruiting prowess but whose rikishi have suffered plenty of issues on and off the dohyo.

Hanaregoma beya, with just nine rikishi, probably isn’t the best home for three oyakata, including the very senior Minatogawa. As a former Nishonoseki man himself, we’ll send him to assist ex-Kisenosato, who is the youngest shisho in the Kyokai and with one of the largest heya, thanks to the deshi brought by his deputy Nakamura (ex-Yoshikaze). But in an effort to avoid the Hakuho scenario, sticking a veteran presence in a very junior heya might be helpful, even if temporarily.

Finally, Otake beya will probably close next year. If the oyakata intends to continue as sanyo (provided the Kyokai is open to it), it might make sense to send him to Minato beya where there have been some behind-the-scenes issues in recent years in an attempt to lend some additional stability.

Dewanoumi Ichimon

  • Wakafuji (ex-Otsukasa, 53) to Shikihide from Kise
  • Nishikijima (ex-Shotenro, 42) to Futagoyama from Fujishima
  • Sekinoto (ex-Iwakiyama, 48) to Takekuma from Sakaigawa
  • Dekiyama (ex-Hochiyama, 42) to Musashigawa from Sakaigawa
  • Mihogaseki (ex-Tochisakae, 50) to Tatsunami from Kasugano
  • Iwatomo (ex-Kimurayama, 42) to Tamanoi from Kasugano

Some of these moves were obvious and some were less obvious, and in the end I decided to be somewhat conservative rather than doing anything radical. Each of these moves adds an oyakata to a single-oyakata stable.

Wakafuji’s move to Kise always seemed a little bit weird. The heya has a few other oyakata, none of whom really made sense to move (Futeno might ultimately be the successor and seems to have worked closely with many of the sekitori, while Tokushoryu and especially Akiseyama may only be in situ temporarily, depending on Shimanoumi’s situation). In any case, another veteran presence at a Shikihide beya which has had some internal issues in the past few years seems prudent.

Nishikijima was the only oyakata that seemed to make sense to move to Futagoyama, as all of the other Fujishima beya oyakata would be senior to a shisho who by now has some decent experience. On the flip side, Takekuma is a brand new heya and it seems prudent to stick a senior oyakata from the parent heya with the former Goeido, who is one of the youngest stablemasters in the Kyokai.

I pulled another oyakata out of Sakaigawa beya as well, with Dekiyama going to Musashigawa beya. This was an imperfect fit, but I felt better about pulling from Sakaigawa (itself, like the original Musashigawa, branched from Dewanoumi beya) rather than Kasugano beya for two reasons: 1) Sadanoumi and Myogiryu – who may well be the eventual successor – are both soon to retire, potentially giving the stable yet more oyakata; and 2) it’s possible that Tochiozan (Kiyomigata oyakata) is a branchout candidate from Kasugano himself, especially if Tochinonada (Takenawa oyakata) is the eventual successor to the heya in 3 years’ time.

I did however pull two oyakata from the bloated Kasugano beya: the first was the more obvious move, with the junior Kimurayama going to Tamanoi beya which branched from Kasugano, and which has a large volume of rikishi. The second was less obvious, and probably the biggest debate, as Tatsunami beya is another large stable. It also has a number of sekitori with more likely soon to follow, so it felt like an experienced coach was better than moving the likes of Tokushoryu, which is why I settled on Mihogaseki, the former Tochisakae. With Tatsunami not having any connections within the ichimon due to its relatively recent realignment, it was tougher to find a suitable candidate.

Conclusion

All in all, this was an interesting exercise. What it showed me was that it’s possible to improve the balance of coaching within the Kyokai by making around a dozen or so moves and without any radical realignment of the existing ichimon structure.

There will be more scientific ways of doing this, and more forensic ways that take into account the various personalities. As a back of the napkin exercise, however, I think it does show that if the Kyokai put some proper time into researching how to realign their coaching resources, they can probably come up with something even better that would be even more impactful.

It’s also worth linking to this recent article from the Asahi Shimbun. The piece details another solution, which is allowing coaching credentials and ideas to dictate the ability of a former rikishi to operate a stable, rather than the duration of their time on the dohyo. Perhaps we can visit some suggestions for concepts like that in a later post.

What do you think of all of this? Obviously this isn’t the standard Tachiai thought experiment and might be limited in scope to a handful of die-hard readers, but if anyone has any thoughts they’d like to share in the comments then I’d certainly love to kick those around as we get ready for the upcoming basho.

Heya Power Rankings: Nagoya-Aki 18

mitakeumi-preparing

Two thousand eighteen. The year that the underclassmen upset the balance of the hallowed Tachiai Heya Power Rankings. Well, almost. After Tochinoshin’s toe-bustin’ adventures in sansho and yusho, Ice Cold Kakuryu came back to restore the natural order of Yokozuna dominance.

But what’s this? A newcomer has etched his names in the annals of time with a heroic championship win, and you know what happens when that happens: he gets loaded up with special prizes. And in our rankings system, titles and prizes are a good way to load up your stable with points. Step forward Sekiwake Mitakeumi of Dewanoumi-beya, for you, king of tadpoles have arrived.

Ahem. Here’s the full chart for this period:

Heya Power Rankings - Aki 2018

Largely, you’ll note drop-offs in points across the board. This is what happens when everyone is injured. Here’s the top 20-formatted chart:

  1. (+16) Dewanoumi. 95 points (+75)
  2. (+1) Tagonoura. 65 points (+15)
  3. (+4) Sakaigawa. 58 points (+13)
  4. (+5) Tokitsukaze. 58 points (+33)
  5. (-3) Kasugano. 45 points (-45)
  6. (-1) Oitekaze. 44 points (-4)
  7. (-1) Kokonoe. 42 points (-5)
  8. (-4) Miyagino. 40 points (-10)
  9. (+7) Takanohana. 37 points (+16)
  10. (-9) Izutsu. 35 points (-60)
  11. (-3) Tomozuna. 28 points (-4)
  12. (-2) Minato. 25 points (even)
  13. (-2) Isenoumi. 23 points (-2)
  14. (+-) Takadagawa. 20 points (-2)
  15. (**) Kataonami. 20 points (+5)
  16. (**) Hakkaku. 20 points (+9)
  17. (**) Takasago. 20 points (+15)
  18. (+1) Isegahama. 18 points (even)
  19. (-4) Oguruma. 16 points (-6)
  20. (-8) Nishonoseki. 15 points (-10)

(legend: ** = new entry, +- = no movement, tiebreaker 1: higher position in the previous chart, tiebreaker 2: highest ranked rikishi on the banzuke. Nishonoseki and Sadogatake both had an even score after Natsu as well as Nagoya, so Nishonoseki grabs 20th position by virtue of Shohozan outranking Kotoshogiku.)

Movers

After a 38 year title drought, Mitakeumi’s sansho-laden yusho-winning tournament gives Dewanoumi-beya the top spot on our chart. Elsewhere, a 100% kachi-koshi rate for Sakaigawa-beya meant Goeido’s stable returned to the top 3. The impressive veteran Myogiryu (along with Sadanoumi) has succeeded so far in his bounceback to the top division to add to the returning Ozeki’s success in the Nagoya basho. As to whether this ageing crew behind the underachieving Ozeki can continue this improvement at the Aki basho, time will tell.

Yutakayama’s jun-yusho performance vaults Tokitsukaze-beya back into the upper echelons of our chart as well. The stable grabs fourth slot in spite of Shodai’s disappointing tournament. Both Shodai and Yutakayama should return to the joi for September’s forthcoming basho, and after a spirited but underwhelming tilt at the level in May, it will be intriguing to see if Yutakayama can ride the wave of his more recent success to greater achievement in the coming weeks.

Finally, a word for Takanohana-beya, whose beleaguered oyakata guided positive results from resurgent tadpole Takakeisho and Juryo-yusho winner Takanoiwa. When faced with a similar promotion push, Takanoiwa’s fellow Juryo man Takagenji stumbled to a 6 win make-koshi, otherwise the former dai-yokozuna turned stablemaster would be sporting 3 rikishi in the makuuchi ranks for Aki. That said, both Takakeisho and Takanoiwa may be well placed for continued improvement, and Takagenji’s twin Takayoshitoshi probably has a 2019 ETA on a hopefully more humble return to the professional ranks after a dominant 6-1 return to competitive sumo in July.

Losers

By far the most disappointing performance for me this time out has to be the stable that couldn’t even crack the chart, despite an astonishing seven sekitori: Kise-beya. The stable has an incredible number of rikishi in the upper tiers of the third, Makushita tier, as well as the Juryo ranks (and fan favorite Ura still to come back from injury), yet none of those rikishi have been able to make consistent progress. Remarkably, all seven members of the stable’s pro ranks fell to make-koshi losing records, so it’s possible that they were hindered rather than helped by not having to fight each other. Most notably, when faced with the possibility of promotion to the top division amidst a stunning late career comeback at Juryo 1, inelegant veteran Akiseyama fluffed his lines, unable to muster a single win until day 8 against a mostly steady stream of grizzled vets. Newcomer Churanoumi-nee-Kizaki meanwhile will return to the unsalaried ranks following a disappointing 5-10 debut at Juryo.

There’s no great shame in Kasugano-beya’s drop from the top 2 ranks after a series of strong chart positions this year, fuelled by the success of shin-Ozeki Tochinoshin. However, we probably wouldn’t have foreseen the man being docked points for going kyujo. Hopefully his return to competition as a kadoban Ozeki consolidates the stable’s position at the peak of our chart, and stablemates Tochiozan and Aoiyama will be fighting at advanced ranks as well next time out, following winning tournaments in Nagoya.

Izutsu-beya meanwhile takes a tumble following sole sekitori and back-to-back yusho winner Yokozuna Kakuryu returning to the place he occupied most of 2017: the kyujo list.

What’s Next

I’m looking for bouncebacks from Kasugano and Sadogatake beya. In the latter’s case, Kotoshogiku has been mostly competitive in the joi, but his kyujo status midway through Nagoya means he will be fighting at a much lower rank in September and if recovered, should be formidable. The stable will also have Kotoyuki also returning to the top flight.

Oitekaze-beya is another stable whose rikishi could be placed for success next time out. The heya features seven sekitori and despite setbacks for Daishomaru and Daieisho in Nagoya, both should be well placed for success. Oitekaze’s fan favorite Endo, meanwhile, should return to the joi and Juryo man Daishoho may well be positioned to compete for his makuuchi promotion.

Heya Power Rankings: Natsu-Nagoya 18

Kakuryu Yusho Parade
The ranking is strong with this ichimon

Yes, it’s that time again, the time when we tabulate all the points and rank the top heya based on their respective sekitori rank and performance in the previous basho. Last time out, Izutsu-beya grabbed the top spot off the back of a long awaited yusho win for Yokozuna Kakuryu. How do the top stables fare this time compared to last time? Onward:

Heya Power Rankings: Natsu-Nagoya 2018

And now that we’ve added a couple more new (but non-sekitori-bearing) stables to the chart, let’s have a look at this in our Top 20 format:

  1. (+-) Izutsu. 95 points (even)
  2. (+4) Kasugano. 90 points (+40)
  3. (-1) Tagonoura. 50 points (-40)
  4. (+4) Miyagino. 50 points (+14)
  5. (-2) Oitekaze. 48 points (-17)
  6. (+1) Kokonoe. 47 points (-1)
  7. (-3) Sakaigawa. 45 points (-15)
  8. (-3) Tomozuna. 32 points (-23)
  9. (+2) Tokitsukaze. 25 points (+5)
  10. (+3) Minato. 25 points (+5)
  11. (+8) Isenoumi. 25 points (+10)
  12. (+8) Nishonoseki. 25 points (+10)
  13. (**) Sadogatake. 25 points (+11)
  14. (-5) Takadagawa. 22 points (+1)
  15. (+2) Oguruma. 22 points (+6)
  16. (**) Takanohana. 21 points (+8)
  17. (-7) Dewanoumi. 20 points (even)
  18. (**) Onomatsu. 20 points (+20)
  19. (-5) Isegahama. 18 points (-1)
  20. (-8) Kise. 15 points (-5)

(legend: ** = new entry, +- = no movement, higher position in the previous chart breaks the tie. Shikoroyama and Kataonami also scored 15 points but were lower placed than Kise on the previous chart)

Movers & Losers

We’ll group both sets of upward and downward bound heya together this time. It’s an interesting chart to put into context this month because the absence of so many rikishi at the top of the banzuke meant that several rikishi from heya usually found further down the listing put up better results, grabbed kachi-koshi they otherwise might not have (see: Kotoshogiku, Shohozan, etc), and added more points to their stable’s tally.

So, this creates a situation where a heya like Takadagawa can actually score one more point than last time (via addition of Hakuyozan to Juryo) but slide 5 places overall. Similarly, Dewanoumi put up an equivalent score to last time (our model gives Mitakeumi the same amount of points for a kachi-koshi at Komusubi as a make-koshi at Sekiwake), yet slid 7 places overall. The more cynical among us might say there were 16 more impressive storylines than Mitakeumi eking out his winning record from a position where he looked like he’d throw it away again.

Izutsu-beya holds the top spot with no change in the tally owing to Kakuryu’s repeat yusho, while Kasugano-beya reclaims the second spot after Tochinoshin’s sansho-laden jun-yusho. His promotion means he’ll add more points to the heya’s tally next time as an ozeki, but the overall points tally will be dependent on yusho challenges going forward as he’ll be unable to repeat his special prize wins.

Beyond those two stables there weren’t many remarkable performances among the groups: Kokonoe actually took a step backwards in terms of points in spite of Chiyonokuni’s remarkable sansho-winning exploits, as the four other sekitori in his heya all put up make-koshi en-route to a miserable 23-37 combined record.

In terms of what’s next, the stables to watch with potential to bound up the listings in Nagoya are going to be Tagonoura (who will be forced into action next time with the return of kadoban Takayasu and a potential last stand for Kisenosato) and Kise. Kise-beya receives two promotees from Makushita (Kizenryu and Churanoumi-née-Kizaki) and will have fully 1/4 of Juryo with no fewer than seven rikishi in the division next time out. And potentially making way on the chart could finally and sadly be Isegahama-beya which slips to the penultimate spot this time: perma-injured Aminishiki has been relegated to Juryo, and Homarefuji and Terutsuyoshi will be hovering ominously in danger zone to the Makushita demotion to which former Ozeki Terunofuji has now been condemned.