Osaka Day 13 Preview

We go screaming into the final weekend of this tournament with the very real possibility of a double-digit Maegashira taking the cup on day 15. As has been said by sumo luminaries much more accomplished than myself, in this day—everyone is a contender. As lksumo has assured me many times, the schedule mostly goes by a well-understood formula, and that means that a lower-ranked rikishi can catch fire and run up a score high enough to take the cup, having never really been tested against the top-ranked men. This is also a function of the top-ranked men being too evenly matched to produce a score high enough to ensure that the cup remains in the named ranks.

As we set up for the last 3 days of this basho, it’s time to start trying to wonder who will suffer through the 7-7 matches on the final day. I call these “Darwin matches”, because only one survives with a winning record. Quite a few rikishi are on the perilous path that leads to a Darwin battle, so let’s see who can evade that outcome.

Haru Leaderboard

Aoiyama has sole possession of the lead in the race for the cup. He faces Takanosho on day 13.

Leader: Aoiyama
Chasers: Hakuho, Kakuryu, Asanoyama
Hunt Group: Mitakeumi ,Takanosho

3 matches remain

What We Are Watching Day 13

Kotonowaka vs Ikioi – The winner here picks up kachi-koshi today. Both have fought well, and both deserve it. I think whoever loses today is possibly going to find themselves in a Darwin match on day 15. Please, don’t let it be you, Ikioi.

Ishiura vs Shimanoumi – I am sure that Ishiura is quite happy to be going into the final weekend with 8 wins locked up. The question is, at Maegashira 12, does he really want to push for a big boost up the banzuke? He seems to do well around this rank, and running up the score enough to get him at the bottom of the joi-jin might not be a wise idea. Luckily, Shimanoumi has never lost to Ishiura, so maybe he can end up in a Darwin match on day 15.

Chiyotairyu vs Meisei – Chiyotairyu needs just one more win to get his 8. He has faded into week 2, losing 4 of his last 5. He has only fought Meisei once before, and he took the match. Good luck, Chiyotairyu!

Chiyomaru vs Tochiozan – Chiyomaru is very much on the Darwin path, but he has a chance to add a white start to his tally when he faces the miserable wreckage of Tochiozan. Normally, Tochiozan gives Chiyomaru the business (6-1), but he’s too beat up and injured now to pose much of a threat.

Sadanoumi vs Daiamami – Sadanoumi can dispense some sumo doom today if he can hand Daiamami his 8th loss and a make-koshi for Haru. He won their only prior match, and still seems to have some fighting spirit left.

Kotoshogiku vs Tochinoshin – Battle of the battered and broken former Ozeki. It’s like if your two favorite stuffed animals as a child got mangled in a horrific laundry accident, but hung around your bedroom anyhow because you were too sentimental to toss them out. A Tochinoshin loss today is make-koshi for him.

Takanosho vs Aoiyama – It’s a lot of weight to put on Takanosho—shutting down the yusho juggernaut that is Aoiyama. But that’s exactly who has gotten the nod to try his mettle on day 13. He and Aoiyama have a 3 match history that favors Takanosho 2-1. But right now, Big Dan’s V-Twin seems to be set to take him far, and I am not sure who might stop him from lifting the cup on Sunday with those enormous, pale, meaty arms.

Kaisei vs Kiribayama – The last time that Kaisei beat Kiribayama was in the multi-way playoff for the Juryo yusho during November of 2019. Ah, the good old days, when there was no plague loose in the world, and people got to go to the venue to watch sumo. But it may come down to Kaisei having his 8, and not wanting to run up the score, or risk injury. A win today would keep Kiribayama on track for a Darwin match on Sunday.

Azumaryu vs Tamawashi – Can Tamawashi muster enough genki energy to hand fellow Mongolian Azumaryu his make-koshi? Maybe…but an Azumaryu win today sets him on the path for inclusion in the round of Darwin matches we eagerly await on Sunday.

Myogiryu vs Nishikigi – These two miserable sots just need to hug it out. Luckily, Nishikigi’s sumo seems tailor-made for such a format, even if Myogiryu may find it distasteful. Both are already make-koshi, both need to just get past this basho, and for Nishikigi, he’s likely once again captain or at least boatswain of the Juryo barge of the dammed.

Terutsuyoshi vs Onosho – After a long and withering stretch of depressing matches, we get this lovely gem. One of these fine rikishi will exit the dohyo with a freshly minted kachi-koshi, and both of them deserve it. The loser is probably headed for Darwin with the rest of the condemned souls that are slated for the day 15 bloodletting. I expect a lot of intense action that will favor Terutsuyoshi early, and Onosho the longer it goes.

Takarafuji vs Mitakeumi – Both are kachi-koshi, but frankly, I really want to see Mitakeumi run up the score. At least 1 san’yaku slot will be open, and I would love to see the original tadpole return to the named ranks, and perhaps restart a bid to ascend to Ozeki this year.

Shohozan vs Tokushoryu – Another dry husk of a match between two grizzled veterans sporting deep losing records before the final weekend. Sure, Shohozan has a 6-3 career lead, but this one is just more misery.

Okinoumi vs Yutakayama – Yutakayama has never beaten Okinoumi in 3 attempts, and a win today would be yet another marker that the early leader of the Freshman cohort is back in business. He shares Maegashira 3 with Mitakeumi, so if there ends up being only 1 San’yaku slot, he may have to settle for a modest bump up the Maegashira ranks.

Daieisho vs Enho – Daieisho need just 1 more win to get his 8th, and Enho is looking hurt and dispirited now. Clearly he is headed back down the banzuke to calmer waters, but how far will he drop? They have split their prior 2, and with the abundance of rikishi now shutting down Enho’s pixie magic, there is ample footage of Enho losses for Daieisho to review.

Kagayaki vs Endo – Both of these mainstays are dangerously close to the Darwin path, with Endo serving as vanguard of the Darwin sacrifices marching toward day 15. They share a 5-5 career record, so this one is going to come down to Endo getting his frontal grip at the tachiai, and Kagayaki’s sometimes impressive footwork.

Hokutofuji vs Ryuden – Another match of disappointment: both of them are solid fighters, both are make-koshi, and both just need to finish the tournament without additional injuries. I am sure Hokutofuji will show up with more fighting spirit (he always does), but it’s a mystery if it will do him any good.

Abi vs Shodai – In spite of beating Hakuho on day 12, Shodai has to pick up 2 more wins for a kachi-koshi at his highest-ever rank. More likely, he too is on the Darwin path, and we may see him face off on day 15 in a 7-7 battle to survive. A loss today would be make-koshi for Abi, and a further slide down the banzuke.

Takakeisho vs Kakuryu – Takakeisho starts his tour through hell. Needing 2 wins to escape kadoban, he comes up against Yokozuna Kakuryu, who honestly is fighting better than Hakuho right now. He has beaten the Yokozuna once in their 4 career matches, but Takakeisho’s injuries may mean that Kakuryu makes fast work of the Grand Tadpole today.

Hakuho vs Asanoyama – I can’t even tell you how eager I am for this match. To make the score for Ozeki promotion, Asanoyama needs to beat a Yokozuna. Given the baloney sumo from Hakuho on day 12, I expect him to be brash, hasty and probably careless on day 13. That gives Asanoyama a sliver of an opening. We know Hakuho loves to fight high skill yotsu-zumo rikishi, and Asanoyama is that in spades. But if he gives Asanoyama his chance, he may find himself surprised. Good luck, Asanoyama!

Osaka Day 10 Preview

Image of Itadaki’s Amazing Hand-Made Bento Shamelessly Stolen From The NSK’s Twitter Feed, To Whom We Sincerely Apologize.

Hey! We made it to day 10! The closing day of act 2, and the act 2 mojo has been quite strong. Act 2 is where we narrow the field to find out who has what it takes to compete for the yusho, and to start sorting the survivors from the damned. It’s clear that Hakuho, whatever his aches and pains may be, is still the greatest living rikishi, and perhaps the greatest ever. He is undefeated at 9-0, and the only rikishi 1 loss behind are ranked far down the banzuke. Suffice it to day, I think we are looking at a Hakuho yusho.

We are awaiting with eager anticipation the results of Chiyomaru’s COVID-19 test results, which we expect at some point on Tuesday. Should he test positive, that will be the end of a foreshortened Haru basho. What does that mean for the yusho, the May banzuke, and everything else? Nobody knows for sure, and I would guess that if we ever get that far, the sumo kyokai will decide what to do. There is no real precident for this sort of thing, and that is enough to make any Japanese organization quite uncomfortable.

Haru Leaderboard

Leader: Hakuho
Chasers: Takanosho, Aoiyama
Hunt Group: Kakuryu, Asanoyama, Mitakeumi, Ishiura, Kotonowaka

6 matches remain

What We Are Watching Day 10

Kotoyuki vs Daiamami – Hey sumo fans, guess who is back? None other than “The Penguin” Kotoyuki! He was on a rather impressive run of sumo until he got injured just before Hatsu, and dropped from Maegashira 3 all the way down to Juryo 1. He is back to visit for a match against 4-5 Daiamami, but Kotoyuki’s sumo is looking poorly again.

Kotoshogiku vs Azumaryu – The 5-4 Kyushu Bulldozer mounts the dohyo again today to push toward his 8. Frankly, I am really impressed that Kotoshogiku can continue to lay down winning sumo in spite of his injuries. The only prior match went to Azumaryu, but given the fact that Azumaryu is not fighting so well, it is probably an even fight.

Shimanoumi vs Aoiyama – Aoiyama hit his 8th win on Monday, and now it’s all down to him running up the score. As we have seen throughout his history in sumo, Big Dan is not one to back off the throttle just because he is kachi-koshi.

Ishiura vs Kaisei – Henka complaints aside, Ishiura has been doing very well this basho, and in fact there is a good chance he can reach kachi-koshi today, if I can prevent the massive Kaisei from invoking the icon of all massive objects in motion—Isaac Newton. Should Ishiura fail to get out of Kaisei’s way, there are few forces short of Ichinojo that can slow him down. Stay nimble!

Meisei vs Ikioi – Yeah, sure, Meisei holds a 2-0 record, but does anyone think that Meisei has any mojo right now? I think he has laid in a course for make-koshi, as is proceeding at full impulse.

Kotonowaka vs Terutsuyoshi – A win today gives Kotonowaka his 8th, and the glory of the kachi-koshi interview. Say, ever wondered what would happen if there were a make-koshi interview? Get Raja Pradhan to do it, they give him all of the terrible jobs.

Nishikigi vs Tochiozan – I can’t belive it, but there is a solid chance that Nishikigi will be able to dodge make-koshi for another day. The exquisitely skilled Tochiozan is a walking bandage right now, and I would not expect him to do much if anything with vigor.

Shohozan vs Tochinoshin – Say, lets take two really strong rikishi, make sure they are really hurt, and watch them fight. No, that’s not theoretical, that happens day 10 (again) as we see the battle-damaged former Ozeki Tochinoshin take on the relic of “Big Guns” Shohozan. A Shohozan loss today means make-koshi, which we all know is coming, but we just don’t know when.

Chiyotairyu vs Kiribayama – A first time meeting between Chiyotairyu and Natsu basho kanto-sho winner, Kiribayama. Is he, at his relatively feather weight (94 kg vs 166.8 kg), ready for the overwhelming, thunderous tachiai? Word to Kiribayama, the occasional henka is not only useful, it can be amusing to the fans.

Takarafuji vs Takanosho – Another first-time match. We get to see the kachi-koshi Takanosho encounter the “defend and extend” sumo of Takarafuji. Takanosho is a straight-ahead yorikiri kind of guy, so I am really keen to see what happens when Takarafuji invites him to go chest to chest, but makes sure there is nothing he can do with it.

Sadanoumi vs Tamawashi – Both of these rikishi seem to be setting course for the same make-koshi system that Meisei is headed to at full impulse. Both are high-skill, capable rikishi who just seem to be having a stinker of a tournament. A Tamawashi loss today would be his 8th, which, given Sadanoumi’s 9-3 career advantage, may be the outcome.

Yutakayama vs Kagayaki – Oh, now this one looks tasty! Yutakayama really gave Takakeisho the business on day 9. For his longterm followers, it was not really out of character, but I am going to watch what he does with Kagayaki. They have split their prior 8 matches, so this is a great bell-weather bout on whether Yutakayama is doing better than his normal level.

Okinoumi vs Tokushoryu – Can Tokushoryu come back from 2-7 to rescue a kachi-koshi at Maegashira 2? Most unlikely, but given that his sumo fundamentals are strong (if narrow), and he has a toolkit of winning moves, it’s just possible. The more likely outcome is that veteran Okinoumi rides him like a hoppy toy around the edge of the dohyo before sending him on a jog around where the spectators should be for his 8th loss.

Daieisho vs Abi – I think Abi is still injured from Hatsu, and his double arm attack is still front and center in his sumo, but that sore knee means he lacks the stable platform to give his double arm thrust sufficient power to overwhelm his opponents. On top of that, Daieisho is on a hot streak, winning his last 6 in a row.

Hokutofuji vs Myogiryu – Loser gets make-koshi, that’s really all you need to know here.

Mitakeumi vs Endo – Mitakeumi unleashed an uwatedashinage on Endo in their January match, handing him his 3rd consecutive loss in the middle of the basho. If Mitakeumi can repeat that performance, it will be his 8th win, and a well deserved kachi-koshi for March. Endo seems to have hit a dead spot, losing 2 of his last 3.

Asanoyama vs Enho – Asanoyama is on a narrow path to an Ozeki promotion bid, and he needs quality wins to even get serious consideration. A loss to Enho on day 10 would most likely shut down the hype train for March, and cause him to try again next basho, whenever that happens.

Takakeisho vs Shodai – Fans should consign themselves to the very real possibility that Takakeisho will be kadoban following March. It’s pretty obvious he has an injury, and he’s just gamberizing as hard as he can. He holds a 7-3 career lead over Shodai, but right now Shodai is fighting better than Takakeisho is. The Ozeki needs 3 of his last 6 to make his 8, a tough climb for a man in pain.

Hakuho vs Onosho – This is some sort of twisted nod to Onosho’s fightback to the top ranks of sumo. He has finally completed his quest to return to the highest levels of competition, as he faces the dai-Yokozuna on day 10. True, Hakuho has and likely will mop the dohyo with him, but… what an honor!

Ryuden vs Kakuryu – In the “time to take your lumps” bucket with Onosho, it’s Ryuden’s turn to face Kakuryu. Ryuden is more aggressive, and I would love to see him unleash something unexpected and dangerous before Kakuryu shuts him down and sends him flying.

Osaka Day 8 Highlights

Chiyomaru image shamelessly stolen from the NHK web site, to whom we apologize

There was excellent sumo action on the dohyo for nakabi, but there is no doubt the story with the most potential impact to the basho is that Chiyomaru (5-3) is kyujo due to a persistent fever. Word from the NSK is that he is being tested for influenza, and they will take appropriate action to treat him. What? Not COVID-19 you say? Japan is a very orderly place, and the current medical protocol states that they test for influenza first. A reminder to readers, if any rikishi pops positive for the dreaded corona virus, the remainder of the basho will be canceled. I hope for the sake of Chiyomaru, whatever he has is not serious, and not long lasting. It’s a shame because in spite of whatever encroaching illness, he was fighting better than any basho in the last year.

While we hope that Chiyomaru is comfortable in his quarantine cell at the local CoCo’s Ichibanya, showing them the terror of “Tabehoudai”, I was thrilled to watch a match I have been waiting more than a year to see – Asanoyama vs Yutakayama. There was a lot wrapped up into this match. The two of them had a fierce rivalry going as they climbed the sekitori ranks, and it was Yutakayama who broke into the joi-jin first. But an injury sent him back down the banzuke, and by all indication, it took a while for him to get his body back, followed by him recovering his sumo. The outcome of that match has serious implications for Asanoyama’s hoped for Ozeki bid, as the numerical count of wins matters, but the quality of those wins (and any losses) are considered as well. Fans will remember that the lack of “Quality” was the reason stated for rejecting Takakeisho’s first bid for promotion. In true Ozeki style, he shrugged it off and continued to dominate matches in the following tournament.

Highlight Matches

Meisei defeats Chiyomaru – Any virus that inhabits Chiyomaru must feel like the luckiest protein chain in the world. There’s just so much space for you and all the kids. Poor guy, please get better soon.

Shimanoumi defeats Kotoshogiku – Plain and simple, those knees just could not maintain the pressure against Shimanoumi. The Kyushu Bulldozer had an unaccustomed grip on Shimanoumi, and struggled to use any of his “quick kill” moves that could have saved the endurance check against what is left of his knees. Kotoshogiku fans worry, as we know that his knees get worse in week 2.

Aoiyama defeats Daiamami – Big Dan Aoiyama shrugs off the loss on day 7, and completely disrupts Daiamami. Normally pulling like Aoiyama did is a very risky move, but he just managed to execute and complete it before he ran out of clay. A win tomorrow and Aoiyama is kachi-koshi.

Ishiura defeats Nishikigi – Nishikigi has nothing to offer any of the top division rikishi this March, and as a Nishikigi booster its sad to see. While Ishiura could have half-efforted this match and probably still won, he yet against brings some solid sumo to the dohyo. I think with a bit of work, he could replicate the Harumafuji death-spin that I miss so much. I am starting to think Ishiura might be a serious rikishi. Nishikigi now one loss from an early and brutal make-koshi.

Ikioi defeats Azumaryu – Classic Ikioi densha michi-sumo. Azumaryu had zero chance today. Sadly there were thunderous roars for the home town hero, only heavy breathing.

Kotonowaka defeats Chiyotairyu – Soft tachiai from Chiyotairyu, with an early pull down attack that released forward pressure. My compliments to Kotonowaka for recognizing that gambit from Chiyotairyu and exploiting it to good effect. Kotonowaka improves to 6-2.

Kaisei defeats Terutsuyoshi – Much as I enjoy Terutsuyoshi, sometimes good old Newtonian sumo carries the day. Kaisei used his enormous body to overwhelm Terutsuyoshi’s offense, and kept him moving back, never giving him a chance to set his feet and attack. Kaisei improves to 4-4 after a rough start to Haru.

Shohozan defeats Tochiozan – The battle of sadness, it was make-koshi for Tochiozan. His sumo is still there, but it has no power to win. Each day that goes by, there is more tape on Tochiozan, and you have to assume that the injuries are accumulating. Painfully.

Takarafuji defeats Sadanoumi – Takarafuji did not engage in his “defend and extend” sumo today. In fact this bout could almost be considered hasty by Takarafuji standards. Sadanoumi charged in with energy, but Takarafuji defended well at the tachiai, and quickly found he could move Sadanoumi back. One final shove sent Sadanoumi down the hanamichi for a Takarafuji win.

Tochinoshin defeats Tamawashi – Did anyone else cringe when Tochinoshin pivoted on that bandage right leg? I admire that win, but good lord, I have no interest in seeing the big wheel chair again this basho. That injured looking hop to take weight off of the right leg following the shitatedashinage to win the match told the story for me.

Takanosho defeats Myogiryu – Takanosho continues to be overwhelmingly genki this tournament, as there is something physically amiss with Myogiryu. It’s the only way I can explain that he is just 1 loss away form make-koshi on the middle day of the bahso.

Kagayaki defeats Kiribayama – I loved that Kagayaki tachiai. He came inside with both hands from underneath, and completely shut down any attempt at offense from Kiribayama. To his credit he got a left hand inside grip while he staggered to regain balance. But Kagayaki’s stance was solid, and he forced Kiribayama down, back and out.

Enho defeats Onosho – Wow! Both of these rikishi exceeded expectations today. Enho finally cooked off his best sumo, and I was baffled that Onosho’s balance had improved enough that it took 3 high maneuverability, high energy attack sequences form Enho to finish him off. First off, that flying henka. Beautifully executed, but Onosho recovered well. The tottari almost finished him, but Onosho kept his feet! Onosho rallied and attack with power, but it only set up the katasukashi. Great sumo offense from Enho, and surprisingly good defense work by Onosho today.

Daieisho defeats Tokushoryu – Tokushoryu has reverted back to Juryo level sumo, and he’s really out classed by the upper echelons of the banzuke this March. One more loss for the Hatsu yusho winner, and its make-koshi for him.

Okinoumi defeats Endo – Endo was lower, stronger and inside at the tachiai. But Okinoumi got a strong right hand outside grip, and went to work. Again, some element of Newtonian physics was at play, as Okinoumi had better leverage, and much better foot placement. Both men end the match at 4-4.

Yutakayama defeats Asanoyama – Oh the match I was waiting more than a year to see. Welcome back Yutakayama, we need your sumo to drive Asanoyama to higher levels of performance. Yutakayama set the form and cadence of the match, Asanoyama tried for too long to drive the match towards something resembling yotsu, but Yutakayama tore him up. I personally think this impacts Asanoyama’s Ozeki bid, as he was ransacked like a fully stocked Walmart facing a horde of corona virus panic shoppers by a Maegashira 3. That loud, fleshy thud at the end of the match? That may have been Asanoyama’s Ozeki promotion for March.

Shodai defeats Ryuden – Much as I knock Shodai, I hope (as I do for all rikishi) that they can do well and win every time they step on the dohyo. One of Shodai’s biggest problems is that he lets his worries and his mind defeat him, rather than letting his frankly good technique take care of business. So I was delighted to see him shake off his losing streak today, and in very good form. He did not give Ryuden even a moment to get started, inside, back and out.

Takakeisho defeats Hokutofuji – I did enjoy watching Takakeisho deliver multiple volleys against Hokutofuji today, as Hokutofuji continues his trek toward “The most powerful make-koshi in sumo”. My only knock is that Takakeisho did not quite finish him on the 3rd volley and eased up. Follow through, Grand Tadpole.

Hakuho defeats Abi – After Abi jumps early for a matta, it’s over in a flash in what looks like at least 40% slippiotoshi. Abi got at least one good blast in, but nothing was stopping Hakuho today. The dai-Yokozuna racks yet another day 8 kachi-koshi in his somewhat unbelievable career.

Kakuryu defeats Mitakeumi – Our second delightful densha michi match today. For reasons I can’t quite fathom, Mitakeumi decided to try to pull Kakuryu straight out of the tachiai. I can’t recall the last time I saw Mitakeumi look more like a wheel barrow full of compost on its way to the garden. Wow.

Asanoyama Keiko With Araiso-oyakata

As Herouth noted yesterday, Asanoyama was not exactly thrilled to receive an invitation to join Tagonoura-beya for degeiko (出稽古) or keiko outside of one’s own heya. Perhaps the risk of kawaigari with the former yokozuna was a bit less scary than the idea of kawaigari with the current dai-yokozuna, so Asanoyama did make the trip.

Welcome to Tagonoura-beya!

I digress, but for those going to Tokyo or in Tokyo, Asanoyama’s stable, Takasago, is in a great location for a visit. I LOVE THIS PLACE. I could just walk around these areas for days. Oh, wait, I actually do that whenever I’m there. It is a bit of a hike from Ryogoku station, between Ryogoku and Kinshicho of the Sobu Line and the Asakusa Line’s Honjo-Azumabashi station. Ryogoku is the station that is home to Kokugikan. Honjo-Azumabashi is in between Sky Tree (Oshiage) and Asakusa (home of the Kaminarimon Gate). Honjo-Azumabashi is on the side of the river with the big unchi, otherwise known as the headquarters of Asahi beer.

Maybe Asanoyama went with the longer trip?

So in his case it may have made more sense for Asanoyama and his entourage to go from Kinshicho, and take the Sobu line up to Koiwa…or get someone to drive them. I favor the idea of a bunch of sumo wrestlers on the train, especially if Asanoyama wanted to delay his punishment.

At least Araiso seems to have had fun, judging by the maniacal laughter while Asanoyama lies, defeated, on the dohyo behind him. The former Yokozuna took 16 of their 17 bouts. While Takayasu was available, the opposing sekiwake opted for butsukari with Asanoyama rather than doing any bouts. This worries me because if Takayasu isn’t ready for keiko bouts against a sekiwake — a week before the honbasho — he won’t be ready to win 10 of 15 real bouts against 1) a pair of Yokozuna with something to prove, 2) two desperate ozeki hoping to maintain their status, and, 3) a half-dozen up-and-comers gunning for his place.