With act 1 for the final tournament of 2022 now in the record books, it’s time for us to start act 2. Act 2 is where we narrow the field to find out who has what it takes to compete for the yusho, and to start sorting the survivors from the damned. Right now there are eight rikishi who have a single loss, and I would expect the yusho race to emerge from that group. We already know that the winner will have at least 1 loss, and I would guess maybe even more than that. None of the Ozeki are in that group, unless you could Mitakeumi who is what we call an “Ozekiwake”. It’s still too early for the schedulers to do any work on narrowing that field in a major way, but if this pack of 8 holds together, we could have some great matches for the middle weekend coming up on days 7 and 8.

As long as we are on scores, with the start of day 6, nearly everyone has either a 3-2 or a 2-3 score. I am still hoping someone can turn up the intensity on this basho, and maybe deliver something other than everyone taking turns winning and losing.

What We Are Watching Day 6

Kagayaki vs Hiradoumi – After his unimpressive performance in September, Hiradoumi is at least fighting well this tournament. I think he has a distinct edge against Kagayaki today, and may end up kachi-koshi this time around.

Ichiyamamoto vs Mitoryu – Coming in with a rare 4 win record (at least for this crowd), Ichiyamamoto is not really doing anything different than September (6-9 finish), but it seems to be working a bit better this time out. He needs 4 more wins for kachi-koshi, and may get win #5 against Juryo visitor Mitoryu today.

Okinoumi vs Azumaryu – Matching 2-3 records, both of these rikishi need to get their sumo in gear starting today. Okinoumi is having one of “those” tournaments, where he’s showing up, fighting as best he can, but his body is just not the same sumo engine it was 5-7 years ago. Probably advantage Azumaryu.

Terutsuyoshi vs Oho – Terutsuyoshi is hurt, and if he could not convert his match on day 5 against Okinoumi, I am not sure how he might pick up any wins this time, as he won’t fight the equally injure Takarafuji. He has not beaten Oho in either of their prior matches, plus Oho seems to have come around to the notion that the sport of sumo requires fighting.

Atamifuji vs Chiyotairyu – I am glad that after his day 5 fight against Kagayaki, Atamifuji is done being polite and dropping matches. The guy is big, strong and powerful, and it’s high time that he started to clear the road ahead of him. He’s got a bulky obstacle in the form of Chiyotairyu to handle today. But unforntunately for those of us who are fans of sumo’s Thunder God, Chiyotairyu is hurt and fighting on par with Terutsuyoshi right now

Aoiyama vs Kotoeko – Kotoeko needs to use his agility and mobility to keep Aoiyama from bringing his big brawling arms into the match. Chiyoshoma was able to do that and win on day 4, Kotoshoho could not on day 5 and lost. They share an 11 match history that favors Kotoeko narrowly, 5-6.

Takanosho vs Chiyoshoma – Sadly, I laughed at Takanosho’s loss to Abi day 5. I am sure it was a big contest on the clay, but to those of us at home, it underscored that Takanosho seems to have lost some of his sumo, and hopefully he can get it back soon. Chiyoshoma comes in today with a matching 2-3 record, but a 3-5 career deficit.

Kotoshoho vs Abi – Abi is another member of the elite 4-1 club, and given his position lower down the banzuke, must be considered a contender to run his score into double digits, or even compete for the up next week. I don’t thing he’s going to have too much trouble with 3-2 Kotoshoho, who has dropped his last 2 matches in a row.

Onosho vs Tochinoshin – A tough aspect of being a fan of Onosho; he is either hot or cold, not usually in between. So far he has been very sharp this basho, and I think he’s got a real chance to win against Tochinoshin today. Tochinoshin is, if anything, less mobile this November than I have seen him in some time, and tends to go soft at the first element of lateral motion in this opponent’s sumo.

Nishikigi vs Takarafuji – Much as I like Nishikigi’s sumo, I am already weary of watching an injure Takarafuji struggle each day on the clay. I know he’s keeping his perfect record intact, but at some point, it’s sunset days for you sir, and maybe you should know when to heal up to stave off that sad day (at least for his fans) a bit longer.

Hokutofuji vs Endo – Endo can’t seem to muster his sumo right now, and has had a lack-luster year. Thus far he has been make-koshi for all tournaments save a 8-7 in Osaka. As such, he may be an easy mark for Hokutofuji today, who could really use the win.

Myogiryu vs Nishikifuji – Myogiryu has won both their prior matches, but right now I would sort Nishikifuji into the “hot” category in terms of his sumo. Both of them won their day 5 matches, and both of them are fighting well. This could be a solid match.

Ryuden vs Sadanoumi – A pair of 3-2 rikishi, who have an even 5-5 career record. Both are fighting a bit better than their middling score might indicate. Given their different sumo styles, the longer this match goes on, the more it will favor Ryuden.

Meisei vs Wakamotoharu – First ever match between these two, and I would have to think that Wakamotoharu wants to bounce back after that day 5 loss to Kotonowaka. Should be doable if he keeps his body calm and takes his time. Meisei maybe a bit over-promoted at M2E, but the banzuke this November was a mess.

Tobizaru vs Kotonowaka – Tobizaru had been part of the elite pack leading this mess of a basho, but his day 5 opponent, Mitakeumi, is a man on a mission. I am looking for hime to bounce back today against Kotonowaka, who has won the last 2 in a row, They share a 3-3 career record, so this might be a high-energy fight.

Tamawashi vs Kiribayama – Tamawashi seems to be on a fairly straight road to a make-koshi this time out. It could be one of any number of explanations, but he’s going to have 10 more matches to senshuraku. He has only won one match in six attempts against Kiribayama, so this may be another tough day for the September yusho winner.

Daieisho vs Hoshoryu – Daieisho is not quite in his best form, but this November, when he does connect, it seems to be with authority. Hoshoryu share a slice of the 8 way lead right now, and needs to recover at least his pride today after Midorifuji unloaded that kawazugake to win the match.

Wakatakakage vs Ichinojo – I am honestly surprised that Wakatakakage is part of the gray mass that is the 2-3/3-2 crowd starting act 2. He has not quite had his habitual cold start, but he has thus far failed to distinguish himself from the pack. He’s up against 2-3 Ichinojo, who is either strong or passive on a day to day basis. They have split their prior 8 matches 4-4.

Takayasu vs Mitakeumi – This has potential to be my favorite match of the day. These two have had 29 career fights, they are both part of the 4-1 group, and they both are keen to win. Mitakeumi because he needs to make his 10 to get his Ozeki rank bank, Takayasu because he seems to be playing spoiler this November. The career stats favor Takayasu 20-9, but Mitakeumi is a man on a mission.

Takakeisho vs Ura – Not sure where Ura’s sumo is this November, maybe enjoying the onsen somewhere near Osaka, but it is certainly not with him in Fukuoka. I expect that Takakeisho will expand his 10-3 career record against Ura today.

Midorifuji vs Shodai – Shodai needs to buckle down and fight like he means it starting now. He’s got Midorifuji who just completely pants’d Hoshoryu on day 5, and if he’s not careful, that spritely fellow will perform some witchcraft via his sumo and turn him into a newt.

We have already reached day 5 of the Kyushu basho – the end of act 1. The crew at Tachiai tend to look at any basho as a composition of 3 five day “acts”, each that has it’s own purpose and goals. For act 1, we try to knock the ring rust off of everyone, get them tuned up to honbasho intensity, and start to find out who is hot and who is not.

The day 4 action did quite a bit to pull the rug out from under than last goal. Not a single rikishi will end act 1 with a perfect 5-0 record. I am sure some sumo fan who is far more into the numbers than I am can tell me the last time that happened. But instead now we have a broad group of 2-2 rikishi heading into day 5. Years ago when the podcast crew were discussing the (at that time) impending post-Hakuho future, Josh wisely suggested that given that most of the rikishi were all showing up from the lower ranks with more or less the same level of quality, that the future of Makuuchi was going to look a lot like Juryo at that time. Only a handful of high performers, who would not be able to consistently turn in strong records.

That prediction as certainly been playing out in the past year or so, as each tournament we end up with a large number of athletes who finish the tournament without standout performance. I am quite certain this is a transitory state, and that new champions will arise to dominate the sport.

Due to everyone turning in middling performances so far, expect a lot of 2-2 vs 2-2 match ups today. More or less everyone has a participation trophy right now, unless you are from Isegahama.

What We Are Watching Day 5

Kagayaki vs Atamifuji – I, for one, am looking forward to the first match in the top division today. We got to see Atamifuji get out of “sumimassen” mode on day 4, and maybe he’s decided he’s done showing glowing respect for everyone in the top division, and will now proceed to fight them with his best sumo. He has a 1-1 record with Kagayaki, and like half of the top division, both of them come into today 2-2.

Tsurugisho vs Azumaryu – Tsurugisho is today’s Juryo visitor, and you can tell he’s not from the top division because he does not have a 2-2 record. Instead, he’s got a 4-0 record (gasp!) and in promotable range. Maybe he can turn in a solid record and return to the top division yet again. He’s had 23 matches against Azumaryu, and won 15 of them.

Ichiyamamoto vs Hiradoumi – These two could have been conformists, and shown up today with a 2-2 record, but decided to be a bit different, and they both have 3-1. Way to make everyone else look half hearted guys. Ichiyamamoto has never lost to Hiradoumi, so I the chances of them both exiting the dohyo with matching records are zero.

Okinoumi vs Terutsuyoshi – A battle of the non-conformists. Not only do neither one of these rikishi have the decency to show up with a 2-2 record, they don’t even start the day with matching scores. Terutsuyoshi is from Isegahama, and he does not need to have a 2-2 record. In fact, he’s banged up and should be getting treatment. But for some reason here he is, handing out white stars day after day.

Kotoeko vs Oho – These two have 3-1 records, so it’s a bit more comfortable. Maybe if both of them could give one of their wins to the other person as a loss, they could find a way to get back to 2-2, but I don’t think they could get the proper forms faxed in by the start of the day, so its out of the question. Instead they are going to have to fight it out, and decide whose 3-1 record is best. Maybe Oho will continue to fight like he’s ready to win today.

Onosho vs Chiyotairyu – This is unsettling. Not only are these two not at 2-2, their scores are mirror images at 3-1 and 1-3. It’s as if they are trying to mock the high standards of the top division. But given how Onosho is fighting that much better than Chiyotairyu right now, I expect Onosho will have a strong chance of picking up his 4th win today.

Aoiyama vs Kotoshoho – Aoiyama’s upper body seems to be as potent as ever, but his suspension system and drive train are probably in need of a complete rebuild at this point. Hopefully Kotoshoho studied Chiyoshoma’s day 4 win, and has figured out that if you just can endure the beating long enough to get in close to Aoiyama, you can move him around like a fridge on a furniture dolly.

Takanosho vs Abi – I really hope Abi did not do something to mess up that damage ankle on day 4. Out of all the perfect score people on day 4, I expected him to hang onto his zero loss streak. Now that he’s given that up, he needs to be careful that Takanosho does not come underneath his double arm thrust, find his belt and battle hug him to victory. Abi has a 5-1 series lead.

Chiyoshoma vs Tochinoshin – I was surprised to find that Chiyoshoma actually had a 4-3 match advantage over Tochinoshin. Tochinoshin did not look strong or stable against Takarafuji on day 4, but at least he can take comfort that he has the highly prized 2-2 score to start the day. But I wonder if Tochinoshin’s knee is starting to give him trouble again.

Endo vs Myogiryu – Endo has only a single win so far, and he’s up against Myogiryu, who has a conforming 2-2 score. With 17 prior fights between them, the tally is 9-8 with a slight edge to Myogiryu, but both have won one against the other in the only two matches they have had this year.

Takarafuji vs Ryuden – Takarafuji has a 7-2 career advantage, but that hardly matters right now, as Takarafuji is hurt and should have been kyujo this tournament. He has an unbroken record of showing up for every match, and as far as I can tell, trying to keep that intact is the only reason he’s not getting treated right now. Seems silly, but then I am not a sumotori in any way.

Hokutofuji vs Nishikifuji – I am trying to figure out if once again Hokutofuji will attempt to attain “The most powerful make-koshi in all of sumo” this tournament, or if he really is trying to win. He has won the only prior match on the clay against Nishikifuji, but Nishikifuji is fighting better than he is so far. I think it will hinge on if he can land that nodowa at the tachiai, or if it will miss its mark as it did on day 4.

Nishikigi vs Sadanoumi – Finally, a match we can feel comfortable with. Both men are polite enough to make sure they showed up at the start of the day with a 2-2 score, and they have politely traded wins for the past few years, with them taking enough care to have a career score of 11-10. All social commentary aside, I think Sadanoumi will have the early advantage in this match, that tilts toward Nishikigi the longer the fight goes on.

Wakamotoharu vs Kotonowaka – For yet another tournament, Wakamotoharu is calling putting together a winning record. This is the stealth rikishi, and he’s never one to soak up attention, but can this guy win. Kotonowaka only found his first win on day 4, so maybe he’s not used to it just yet, but he does have a 4-1 career advantage over Wakamotoharu.

Daieisho vs Kiribayama – If I had to give an award for “most improved” from the end of Aki to the end of act 1 of Kyushu, it would go to Kiribayama. His sumo seems to really be calm, collected and patient. As much as I love Tobizaru sumo, I did enjoy Kiribayama stuffing him under his chest and keeping him there for a while. Today, he won’t get any such chance. Daieisho puts every gram of power he can into every push and hit, and Kiribayama will need to be careful to keep his feet.

Tamawashi vs Takayasu – These two have a 31 match history, and would routinely pound the stuffing out of each other every tournament. In fact, it was Tamawashi’s “arm breaker” kotenage that damaged Takayasu’s elbow. So I expect sparks to fly today.

Wakatakakage vs Ura – At first I was amazed that Wakatakakage lost on day 4, but now it all makes sense. He’s a really nice fellow, and was looking to make sure his score was a polite, and matching, 2-2. That being said, Ura has never won a match against Wakatakakage, and with him starting day 5 at a terrible 0-4 score, things do not look positive for him.

Tobizaru vs Mitakeumi – So far Mitakeumi has only lost a single bout, and in my opinion remains more or less on track for his 10 wins. He has a solid 3-1 career advantage over Tobizaru, but I would suggest his best approach is going to be the same as his win over Ura on day 4. Stay close, box him in, and don’t let him use his agility to get back in the fight.

Midorifuji vs Hoshoryu – For some odd reason, Hoshoryu has been unable to beat Midorifuji once in any of their 5 prior matches. I won’t be the least bit surprised to see make that 6-0 today. We may even see a third watashikomi in their series. It’s kind of funny because Hoshoryu knows its coming, takes active steps to shut it down, and then… Surprise!

Meisei vs Shodai – This needs to be a win for Shodai. Sure, he’s part of the polite group at 2-2, but this kadoban stuff is going to be a real problem in week 2 and act 3 unless he takes steps to get his record in solid positive territory this week. He has a 9-3 career advantage over Meisei, so this had better be a white star today.

Takakeisho vs Ichinojo – Ichinojo seems to have some of the fire which drove him to the yusho in July still hanging around, and I think that he may find himself employing his best sumo today against Takakeisho. Truth be told, Ichinojo is big enough that if he can set his feet, I am not sure that Takakeisho can really move him. I hope we can put that to the test today. They share a close to even 9-8 career record.

At the start of day 4, we are looking at just a handful of rikishi with no losses. This includes

• Hoshoryu
• Tobizaru
• Abi
• Kotoshoho
• Hiradoumi

I expect by the end of act one at the completion of Thursday that there may be just one or two. As is common now in the post-Hakuho era, the competition space is surpassingly flat, and no rikishi is unassailable, and might be defeated on any given day. For recent fans of sumo, this seems perfectly natural. But there was a day just a few years ago were we could expect Hakuho and maybe Terunofuji to go a tournament or two per year without suffering a single loss. Will we ever get back to that level of dominance in the sport? I think we may see it in the next few years, sooner if some of the current leading men can improve a notch or two.

At the other end of the spectrum, we have 7 rikishi who have yet to find their first win. I suspect that at least half of them will beat their opponents today. But for some (such as Takarafuji), they are just too banged up right now to present much of an opponent to anyone in the top division. For fans of some of these long serving favorites, it may be a long 15 days.

What We Are Watching Day 4

Kagayaki vs Bushozan – Today’s Juryo visitor is Bushozan, who has been knocking around Juryo since early 2021. At Juryo 2W, he has a chance to make it to the top division if he can put up a solid kachi-koshi. But sadly he has a 1-2 start, and needs to turn things around right away. He is fairly evenly matched against Kagayaki, so I am looking for him to put up a lot of fight today.

Hiradoumi vs Azumaryu – Not sure what switch was thrown in Hiradoumi’s internal systems, but he’s been an entirely different rikishi than his weak 7-8 make-koshi in September would describe. The last man on the banzuke, he needs 8 wins to stay in the top division. At his 3-0 start, thats looking like a fairly certain bet. I will point out again that 1-2 Azumaryu has yet to have a kachi-koshi in the top division.

Okinoumi vs Atamifuji – First time match between grizzled and fading veteran Okinoumi and bright newcomer Atamifuji. Right now I am still waiting for Atamifuji to settle in and fight with the same power and speed he used to drive through Juryo and secure his top division debut. Okinoumi is not looking well, and seems to largely be going through the motions right now.

Kotoeko vs Terutsuyoshi – In the list of “people I pick to take a trip to Juryo, front of the line right now is dear injured Terutsuyoshi. He has yet to find his first win, and I don’t think that it’s coming today against another smaller, strong rikishi in Kotoeko. They have a remarkable 25 match history going back to 2015, that is 13-12 in favor of Kotoeko.

Ichiyamamoto vs Chiyotairyu – With this much forward power crammed into the first 8 seconds of the match, the win will be determined by who can keep their feet. My money for today is Ichiyamamoto, as Chiyotairyu seems to once again be struggling with some lower body injury. They share an even 2-2 career record.

Oho vs Kotoshoho – Kotoshoho has an excellent 3-0 start, and he will likely make that 4-0 today unless the genki version of Oho shows up at the venue. Oho is day to day in his sumo, and while I don’t think he’s quite good enough to be considered top division, his peers are not much better, and so he lingers up in Makuuchi.

Aoiyama vs Chiyoshoma – One of these days, Chiyoshoma is going to win his first match, and I think there is a good chance he will do it today. Aoiyama can only use the “Statue of Liberty” play right now. If he is forced to move, he’s toast. So Chiyoshoma must endure a volley of blows to get inside, get a grip and heave that mountain of pasty man-flesh to the side. Once he gets him moving, it should be trivial from there.

Onosho vs Abi – This is perhaps Abi’s most competitive match of week 1. Onosho has a slight 6-5 advantage over 3-0 Abi, and will give him a good fight. Both will focus on huge opening moves, and it will be for Onosho to disrupt the initial nodowa / double arm thrust combo if he wants to carry the match.

Takarafuji vs Tochinoshin – I expect Takarafuji to continue to be little more than ballast for his opponents for the next week and change as he seems to be in no condition to compete. Right now he has zero wins, and given that he can’t seem to bring any resistance to forward pressure, I don’t see him winning many if any matches in the remaining 11 days.

Takanosho vs Myogiryu – Takanosho took his first loss in his day 3 match against Aoiyama, after he received a volley from “Big Dan” and the V-Twin. Takanosho took an awkward step of the dohyo, and was not walking right afterward, and I hope that he did not injury himself at the end of that match. He holds a 5-3 career advantage over Myogiryu, and under normal circumstances should be able to dominate today’s match.

Nishikigi vs Ryuden – I like the way Ryuden has been fighting this November, and I think he may have been able to set aside his persistent hip problems, at least for now. Coming in at 2-1 with a 4-2 career advantage over Nishikigi, I would favor him to take the match today.

Endo vs Nishikifuji – First ever match, and I believe that Endo’s 1-2 score, and Nishikifuji’s 2-1 score don’t quite tell the tale of today. I think that both of them have a good chance of having a big win here today, and this one will either be quick and boring, or could turn into a roving brawl that is ended by guile and bold moves.

Wakamotoharu vs Sadanoumi – After that elbow to Ura’s face on day 3, I am going to hope that Wakamotoharu is a bit more careful. He has a 2-5 career deficit against “Mr Quick” Sadanoumi. Both men are 2-1 at the start of day 4, and I am eager to see the clash of styles that are wrapped up in this match. I think that Wakamotoharu will want to grapple and extend this match as much as he can, vs Sadanoumi who is always going to deliver his attacks at a rapid pace.

Hokutofuji vs Midorifuji – A battle of the *fuji crew, this is the first time they have ever fought. Given Hokutofuji’s tendency toward frantic early moves in any match, he may be a good candidate for yet another magnificent katasukashi.

Tobizaru vs Kiribayama – Oh this is likely to be a big, fun match. In the first three days of Kyushu, they have both delivered some of the best sumo of their careers to date, and I have big expectations from these guys in 2023. Tobizaru holds an 8-4 advantage over their career, but Kiribayama has taken a bit of a step change as of late and they have traded wins in their last two matches.

Tamawashi vs Daieisho – Tamawashi has had a cold start to begin the Kyushu basho. It’s a shame that he would go from a yusho in September to struggling to find his first win. But given the overhead of being the Yusho winner, and the distractions involved do tend to take their tool. He has a 12-9 career advantage over Daieisho, who comes in with a 2-1 record, and will likely take the match today.

Ura vs Mitakeumi – Winless Ura comes up against the Ozekiwake that needs to rack up the wins in week one as a hedge against his week 2 schedule. Right not Ura is not showing us much in the way of dominant sumo, but with Ura that can change at any moment, if he finds his opening. Mitakeumi holds a 4-1 career advantage.

Takayasu vs Hoshoryu – I still expect Takayasu to fade a bit in week 2 because of his long suffering injuries. But in the short term, he seems to be doing a wonderful job of putting dents in people’s records for Kyushu. Up today is Hoshoryu, who has only won one match against Takayasu out of five meetings. I think that so far this November, Hoshoryu has been showing us some of his best sumo ever, and this will be a solid match against a larger, more experience opponent.

Wakatakakage vs Kotonowaka – Kotonowaka has yet to win his first match, and I am not prone to give him much credit in today’s match against future Ozeki Wakatakakage. I find myself really enjoying Wakatakakage’s sumo right now, as he has progressed to the point where he is starting to make it look easy, and a careful observer can spot the details and fitness of how he can subtly do things that deliver him wins. Their history is 4-2 in favor of Wakatakakage, but I would be surprised if Kotonowaka can give him too much trouble today.

Takakeisho vs Meisei – Takakeisho’s pride and unblemished record took a dent on day 3 thanks to Takayasu. Today he’s got winless Meisei, who has only beaten the Ozeki 3 times in 10 tries. In spite of his day 3 loss, I still expect Takakeisho to be in competition for the cup in week 2.

Ichinojo vs Shodai – A big test for Shodai today, as he has a 5-13 career deficit against Ichinojo. Granted, with the media nonsense swirling around Ichinojo right now, he may be distracted by something other than Shodai’s “Wall of Daikon”, which is a shame. Shodai needs 6 more wins to clear kadoban, or face demotion to Sekiwake.