In the day 12 preview, I made reference to an attempt to funnel as many rikishi as possible toward a 7-7 record at the end of day 14, to set up a series of “Darwin Matches”. To get there, the scheduling committee sometimes works to pair rikishi with middling records against each other, in hopes of steering as many of them as possible to that 7-7 outcome. If that had been going on, it was blown up today as many who needed a win lost, and many who needed a loss won. Does that mean no 7-7 “Darwin” matches on Sunday? Not at all. But I think the active effort to herd rikishi to that score fell apart today.

The two leaders, Asanoyama and Terunofuji, split their matches today, with Asanoyama losing to Daieisho, and Terunofuji beating Wakamotoharu. This gives Terunofuji sole possession of the yusho lead. But you will note when you watch the video of today’s senshuraku, Terunofuji had to leap from the dohyo at the end of his match, and you can see the pain written over his body. We just hope his knees hold out for another 3 days.

Highlight Matches

Ichiyamamoto defeats Chiyoshoma – Ichiyamamoto picks up a very welcome win in an even match that was lost when Chiyoshoma lost his stance and dropped to the clay. There was at least two Ichiyamamoto pull attempts in there too, and it was a chaotic mess of a match. Ichiyamamoto now 4-8.

Myogiryu defeats Daishoho – It took a few matta to get them started, I don’t know if Daishoho was trying to throw Myogiryu off, or if Daishoho chugged a dozen coffees before mounting the dohyo. It did not help Daishoho at all, and he was quickly out by yorikiri. Myogiryu now 7-5 and could reach kachi-koshi tomorrow.

Takarafuji defeats Mitoryu – I know that Takarafuji has struggled with maintaining forward pressure for most of Natsu, but he was able to stave off Mitoryu for a fair amount of time. After they were both tired enough, Mitoryu charged ahead, Takarafuji escaped and they both stepped out. A monoii declared a rematch. In the second attempt, we got to see the spectacle of Mitoryu attempting an henka. He actually caught a surprising amount of air in that leap. It failed and Takarafuji never let Mitoryu get balance back or place his feet. Mitoryu now make-koshi as both end the day 4-8.

Oho defeats Onosho – Oho has now won 7 of the last 8, and 4 in a row. Like many of his matches, he let Onosho do most of the work. But superb timing counts for quite a bit more than power forward at times. Onosho is convinced he is about to drive Oho out, but Oho steps aside and applies the hatakikomi to get his 8th win. He is now kachi-koshi for Natsu.

Tsurugisho defeats Hiradoumi – I feel for Hiradoumi, who has lost 3 days in a row trying to get his 8th. Hiradoumi finds his left hand blocked by an ottsuke, and can never quite get a working grip. Plus there is quite a lot of Tsurugisho to try and overcome. Tsurugisho finds his hold, and just powers through Hiradoumi’s defenses for a yorikiri to improve to 9-3.

Kotoeko defeats Sadanoumi – A funnel match that went on the rocks, Sadanoumi showed us some speed today, but perhaps more than he should have employed. He was all forward power when Kotoeko pivoted at the bales and sent him into the salt basket for a loss by tsukiotoshi. Kotoeko now 7-5.

Hokutofuji defeats Ryuden – Hokutofuji not ready to accept his obligatory make-koshi just yet. Ryuden had a few good combo attacks, but Hokutofuji took control at the tachiai and kept the pressure on. Ryuden ended the match falling sideways off of the dohyo by oshitaoshi, and Hokutofuji improves to 5-7.

Tamawashi defeats Aoiyama – In this battle of the grizzled veterans, it’s clear that Aoiyama is a bit more banged up than Tamawashi. Tamawashi is able to power through what passes for defense this month from Aoiyama, and the moment it is clear he is at the bales, Aoiyama goes soft and steps out. This is sumo from an injured man. Tamawashi takes the much needed win and is now 6-6, Aoiyama earns his 8th loss and is now make-koshi.

Mitakeumi defeats Kagayaki – Happy to say that Mitakeumi is not yet so far gone that he can be beaten by Kagayaki. Kagayaki gave it a good effort at the tachiai, but once Mitakeumi had him to his chest, he was all forward power to walk Kagayaki out. Mitakeumi now 7-5.

Ura defeats Tobizaru – These two are very inventive rikishi, and so it was surprising to see them throw more or less the same combos at each other time and again for the duration of this lengthy match. Don’t get me wrong, it’s a good fight and the crowd loved it. But I was looking for more nonsense than we got – at least at first. That ending exchange – you have Tobizaru off axis pushing into an unbalanced Ura, who plants his feet, ducks down and head rams a charging Tobizaru. Tobizaru grabs Ura’s head, and Ura lifts with his back and pivots. Down goes Tobizaru and Ura crumples to the clay, with his knees clearly a concern. Kimarite is listed as zubuneri – a head pivot throw, which was last seen in the top division in 1998 when Asahiyutaka used it to defeat Terao on day 5 in Osaka. Ura now 6-6.

Nishikifuji defeats Takanosho – When you are fighting as poorly as Nishikifuji has been this month, winning in reverse gear is “good enough” to be sure. He lets Takanosho supply the energy to power the uwatenage that wins the match, sealing Takanosho’s make-koshi at 4-8, while Nishikifuji advances to 3-9.

Abi defeats Meisei – Abi’s henka catches Meisei at the right time, and sets up the oshitaoshi one step later that wins the match. Meisei looks a bit hurt, or just knocked about and is slow to get up. Abi now 6-6.

Midorifuji defeats Takayasu – The powerful Takayasu of yesterday is nowhere to be seen today, as Midorifuji gets underneath and drives Takayasu out at a gallop. Midorifuji now 4-8.

Nishikigi defeats Kotonowaka – That’s 5 wins in a row for Nishikigi – what on earth? Nishikigi gets his preferred arm bar hold early, and Kotonowaka swaps to defense. With Kotonowaka moving back, Nishikigi keeps up the pressure and finds center mass. The results are an oshidashi that improves his score to 6-6.

Shodai defeats Kinbozan – The version of Shodai with some level of sumo skill mounted the dohyo today. Kinbozan had a good opening attack, but found Shodai reverse his position and grapple in for a quick yorikiri. Shodai now 6-6, and I wish I could buy that man some consistency.

Daieisho defeats Asanoyama – Daieisho takes Asanoyama out of his tie for the lead with a quick mega-thrust win. This is the sumo I expected from Daieisho I expected yesterday against Takakeisho, but good enough here. Because Asanoyama had the easier route to double digits, I wonder if maybe he is not quite ready to fight the san’yaku again just yet. The give away was that pull attempt that opened the door for Daieisho’s oshidashi. I am sure he will improve his sumo a bit more for Nagoya. Daieisho kachi-koshi at 8-4.

Hoshoryu defeats Hokuseiho – I did enjoy watching Hoshoryu come to grips with the size difference in real time. His body and his movements communicated “wow, what the hell is going on?” at least twice. To his credit he kept trying things until he found one that worked, and forced it to his advantage. The attempt at shitatenage fell apart, but broke Hokuseiho grip, and set up the okuridashi. Both end the day 8-4.
Hoshoryu: 8-4

Kiribayama defeats Takakeisho – As soon as Kiribayama got that right hand belt grip, it was two quick steps to the yorkikiri, and double digits for Kiribayama. Will it be enough for him to reach Ozeki for July? I think we will find out shortly after the tournament ends. He is now 10-2.

Terunofuji defeats Wakamotoharu – Wakamotoharu boldly goes chest to chest with the Yokozuna, and does an admirable job of keeping Terunofuji away from his belt. With a working hold Wakamotoharu surges forward toward the bales, but catches a pivot from Terunofuji and drops as he is placed out for Terunofuji’s 11th win. But the Yokozuna is badly off balanced, and hops down from the dohyo. He looks shocked with pain, and I have to wonder if maybe he did not just end his efforts for May. Terunofuji is 11-1 by yoritaoshi.

We are about to start day 12, and only a handful of matches remain in the 2022 Natsu basho. It’s going to be intense as we have a lot of high interest matches today including an extended tour of the upper ranks by the Miyagino giant Hokuseiho. The second to last match has a lot of attention from fans, some of them saying that whomever wins will be Ozeki in July. I am not yet convinced that Kiribayama will get the nod this basho if he only beats an injured Takakeisho. Of course the whole matter is up to the Sumo Kyokai, and I am sure we will hear about it shortly after the final match on Sunday.

For Sunday, there is now a Darwin’s Funnel in effect. We can clearly see the schedulers working to herd as many rikishi with middling scores towards a day 14 finishing score of 7-7, setting up a spread of single elimination matches. As nasty and cruel as it may seem, it underscores the zero sumo game that is sumo. Every time someone gets a white star, the other rikishi gets a black star. Thus there are only so many wins in any division at the end of day 15. Those that accumulate a lot, like Terunofuji and Asanoyama, have to pull them from their opponents.\

Natsu Leaderboard

We are nearly to the point where the only path to the cup will be with Terunofuji, Asanoyama and Kiribayama. I still favor Terunofuji to win it all, but the last 4 matches are likely to be brutal. I also wonder how many more upper rank challenges Hokuseiho will face. It’s one thing to throw the former Ozeki M14 Asanoyama at the san’yaku, he more or less belongs there right now, but it’s another thing for Hokuseiho to have a daily diet of sumo’s best right now. For having such challenges in his path, he has done remarkably well.

Leaders: Terunofuji, Asanoyama
Chasers: Kiribayama
Hunt Group: Wakamotoharu, Meisei, Hokuseiho, Tsurugisho

4 Matches Remain

What We Are Watching Day 12

Chiyoshoma (6-5) vs Ichiyamamoto (3-8) – Ichiyamamoto is already make-koshi, and may be employed here to donate a win to Chiyoshoma. He is the Kokonoe heyagashira, and it would be good to keep him in the top division. They have a fairly even 2-3 record, so this is far from a certain win for Chiyoshoma. He still needs 2 wins to reach his 8.

Myogiryu (6-5) vs Daishoho (5-6) – An excellent funnel match, as both of these rikishi are straddling the center line. Ideally Myogiryu would lose and they would both end the day 6-6. The wrinkle in that plan is that Myogiryu has beaten Daishoho in both prior matches.

Mitoryu (4-7) vs Takarafuji (3-8) – Mitoryu is one loss away from make-koshi, and he goes up against already make-koshi Takarafuji, who seems completely unable to execute anything other than the motions of a sumo match, without any of the required power to make it work.

Onosho (6-5) vs Oho (7-4) – As unlikely as it may seem, an Oho win today would be kachi-koshi for him. It would mean an amazing 7 wins out of the last 8 matches, which given how lethargic his sumo has been just does not seem plausible. Onosho won their prior match this year against an overall 1-2 career record. Maybe Onosho can come in ready to grab his 7th win today.

Tsurugisho (8-3) vs Hiradoumi (7-4) – I don’t recall ever seeing Tsurugisho fight this well in the top division. Today’s match will test out just how genki he is during act 3. He gets to face hot shot Hiradoumi, who has beaten Tsurugisho in all 3 prior matches. A win today for Hiradoumi would be kachi-koshi.

Sadanoumi (5-6) vs Kotoeko (6-5) – Both of these rikishi have fought well this basho, but not well enough to escape the funnel. They are straddling the center line and the recommended outcome is both are 6-6 at the end of today. Kotoeko does have a career 9-5 record against Sadanoumi, having won the last 6 matches in a row.

Hokutofuji (4-7) vs Ryuden (4-7) – One of these two will leave the dohyo today with a fresh new make-koshi. We all know that Hokutofuji is the man with the most powerful make-koshi in all of sumo, and that might make him a favorite to lose today. But in fact, he has a 10-5 career lead over Ryuden, who seems to be suffering once more from a chronic hip injury.

Aoiyama (4-7) vs Tamawashi (5-6) – A pair of grizzled old vets with 4 working tendons between them. Both are fighting at maybe 50% intensity, and it’s kind of tough to watch. Sure Aoiyama has a 9-7 career record against Tamawashi, but that’s not likely to matter right now given how banged up they both are. A loss today would be make-koshi for Aoiyama.

Kagayaki (5-6) vs Mitakeumi (6-5) – Another Darwin’s funnel match, with both rikishi straddling the center line. But Kagayaki has never won against Mitakeumi, and if Mitakeumi loses today, I am going to consider revoking his Tadpole status.

Tobizaru (5-6) vs Ura (5-6) – More funnel madness! Both men are 5-6, the winner gets to keep on track for a day 15 Darwin match, the loser is one black star away from make-koshi. Tobizaru holds a 5-1 career advantage, but I try to keep in mind that Ura seems to have found a reserve of reality distortion cream, and is using it to win matches the last 2 days.

Takanosho (4-7) vs Nishikifuji (2-9) – You combine Takanosho’s record, and his 0-3 history against Nishikifuji, and you get a likely outcome of make-koshi for Takanosho today. Nishikifuji is already there, so he is likely happy to bring another into the losing side of the roster. The only problem to that is how poorly Nishikifuji has been fighting this month.

Abi (5-6) vs Meisei (8-3) – Sadly once red hot Meisei has faded into the second week, and has now lost 3 of the last 4 after dropping a match to Hiradoumi on day 8. He has a tough fight against Abi today, who has a 6-4 history of taking his lunch money. In addition, Meisei has lost all prior matches to Abi this year. An Abi win would put him at 6-6, a prime position for the funnel.

Takayasu (1-1-9) vs Midorifuji (3-8) – Takayasu is already at a 10 loss make-koshi, so he’s really just trying to cushion the fall at this point. He’s got size and skill over Midorifuji on a good day, but Midorifuji is not looking anything like his normal self. He’s already make-koshi, and has lost 3 straight matches coming into today.

Kotonowaka (5-6) vs Nishikigi (5-6) – Both are 5-6, so this is a prime funnel match. Kotonowaka has the well earned reputation for being a tough competitor, but I hope he does not underestimate what Nishikigi can do if he gets the right opening. The winner will advance to 6-6 and be in the middle of the funnel for day 13.

Shodai (5-6) vs Kinbozan (4-7) – I am not sure who should win here. I know that if Kinbozan loses he is make-koshi, but that’s going to happen anyhow. If Shodai wins, he’s in the middle of the funnel. Oh my, such temptations. I think it would be best if Kinbozan can stave off make-koshi for another day. This is their first ever match.

Daieisho (7-4) vs Asanoyama (10-1) – Daieisho can reach kachi-koshi and knock Asanoyama out of the lead at the same time. That’s quite a nice ripe peach to be picked. He has a 9-7 career advantage against the former Ozeki, so maybe he can make it work. Their last match was day 12 of Natsu 2021, which Asanoyama won. Let the deja-vu commence!

Hokuseiho (8-3) vs Hoshoryu (7-4) – They are not giving Maegashira 11 Hokuseiho any breaks, he is now stomping up to battle against Hoshoryu, who needs to overcome a ludicrous size advantage to pick up his 8th win and reach kachi-koshi. Hopefully he watch the footage of how Wakamotoharu did it, but I would guess that Hakuho / Miyagino is loading his giant up with some explicit things to try in todays match. Should be worth staying up to watch.

Kiribayama (9-2) vs Takakeisho (7-4) – A big battle in the second to last match. If Takakeisho wins, he clears kadoban. If Kiribayama wins, he reaches double digits and has a fairly strong case to be promoted to Ozeki. If Takakeisho was healthy, he would have the advantage, but we know he is not. I expect Kiribayama is going to capture a belt hold early and toss the Grand Tadpole out of the pond.

Terunofuji (10-1) vs Wakamotoharu (8-3) – They have only fought twice before, with both going to Terunofuji. He’s holding in tough for the final 4 matches, and he’s still the favorite to take the cup. But Wakamotoharu has made a step change improvement to his sumo, and I want to see him give the Yokozuna a challenging fight today.

Day 11 started act 3 off with a bang. Two new kachi-koshi, three new make-koshi, and what looks like a Darwin funnel starting to form. The race for the cup is more or less down to 3 now, and we have set up some great matches for the final 4 days. We have to wonder what kind of switch was thrown in Oho and Nishikigi, as these guys are winning matches now rather than eating dirt.

Highlight Matches

Daishoho defeats Mitoryu – Many times, the battles of the mega-fauna unfold in slow motion, and this was the case today. Both men tend to operate at a languid pace today, comfortable to battle hug and lean into each other for a time. The end was no more exciting than the start, with Daishoho walking forward slowly for the yorikiri. Daishoho advances (slowly) to 5-6.

Kagayaki defeats Takarafuji – Takarafuji has no defense today, and his brand of sumo is 80% defense. Thus Kagayaki easily got him on the move and send him back, then out. It’s truly sad to watch this if you like Takarafuji. Kagayaki picks up a much needed win and is 5-6, while Takarafuji is now make-koshi at 3-8.

Ryuden defeats Aoiyama – Ryuden endures Aoiyama’s surprisingly limp thrusting attacks, latching onto Big Dan’s mawashi and getting him on the move. Aoiyama makes a half hearted (quarter hearted?) pulling attempt then goes soft and steps out. This is the look of a man who is hurt and has no intention of taking a fall to compound the issue. Both end the day at 4-7 and are ripe for make-koshi on day 12.

Onosho defeats Myogiryu – This match was low on tactical intrigue, but high on forward pressure. For a time Myogiryu battled back, but could not hold power against Onosho’s front push. He also goes soft and steps out to Onosho’s oshidashi. They both end the day at 6-5.

Takanosho defeats Chiyoshoma – Kind of a surprise finish on this one, as Chiyoshoma had all of the offense in this match. He used a number of push/pull combos to break Takanosho’s balance, but on the final pull down, was out before Takanosho landed. The gyoji looked a bit lost, but eventually pointed the gumbai at Takanosho. I expected a monoii on that alone, but it stood as called. Takanosho improves to 4-7.

Oho defeats Sadanoumi – There has been some sort of evolution in Oho, he has now won 6 of the last 7 matches. He could have lost today, had Sadanoumi kept closer contact. A couple of time Oho was off balance and out of position, just waiting for a slap down, but Sadanoumi was too far away. Oho eventually gets a body hold on Sadanoumi, and heaves him out for a yorikiri, improving to 7-4. Hard to think through that this cupcake could be kachi-koshi tomorrow.

Tamawashi defeats Ichiyamamoto – Tamawashi’s body may be too sore for him to pour on the power right now, but he still has the moves. I love how he captures Ichiyamamoto, turns him and then flings him out. That was loss #8 for Ichiyamamoto and he is make-koshi. Tamawashi improves to 5-6.

Tsurugisho defeats Mitakeumi – This was about as straightforward of a match as you could ask for. They grapple at the tachiai, and Tsurugisho envelopes Mitakeumi with his big hold and wide stance. That is actually saying quite a bit, as Mitakeumi is himself a rather wide fellow. Tsurugisho then crab walks forward and the yorikiri is complete. Tsurugisho now kachi-koshi at 8-3.

Asanoyama defeats Meisei – Meisei shows us how much he wants to win this match by surprising Asanoyama by setting up morozashi and lifting the former Ozeki clear of the dohyo. He puts Asanoyama’s heels on the tawara and looks to be about to score an major win. But Asanoyama counters with a pivot and thrust, sending them both the the clay. Meisei looks around for a monoii, but the Asanoyama win stands. Asanoyama hits double digits at 10-1, and maintains his share of the lead.

Kotoeko defeats Kinbozan – This guy beat an Ozeki? Kotoeko packs, boxes, tags and ships Kinbozan like he works at FedEx. At the tachiai Kotoeko gets a commanding grip, and takes control of the match. Kinbozan tries to evade and escape, but finds no exit before Kotoeko takes him out of the ring. Kotoeko now 6-5.

Nishikigi defeats Hokutofuji – A thousand years from now, the world’s stop scientists will try to figure out what happened to Nishikigi that he went from limp to potent like this. He has now won 4 in a row. Granted he was up against a man who prides himself on a vigorous make-koshi, and that tachiai was a terrible choice. Once Nishikigi takes hold, there was nothing Hokutofuji could do but try to wait for an opening. No opening was available, so Hokutofuji took the yorikiri instead. Nishikigi now 5-6.

Ura defeats Nishikifuji – Are fans getting tired of Ura’s celebration recovery moves? I know I am not, but I am a western barbarian from the anglosphere. I think this one was worth a bit of a celebration too. Nishikifuji was genuinely putting for a big effort to best Ura, and had him stalemated for most of the match. Ura did manage to break contact, and Nishikifuji went in for the win. Big gamble with Ura, who accepted Nishikifuji’s offer of a kinetic finish, and applied a tottari to send Nishikifuji hurtling past for a loss. Ura now 5-6.

Takayasu defeats Abi – Welcome back Takayasu! Abi goes for the big forward power thrusting attack, finds Takayasu is far too heavy today to really more, and gets a volley of blows to the back of his outstretched head. Down goes Abi by hatakikomi, and Takayasu gets his first win to be 1-10.

Shodai defeats Tobizaru – Tobizaru should have had that match, but there was a bit too “monkey” in his sumo today. Shodai lunged forward for a finishing move, mostly missed and was teetering at the edge of the ring. Sadly Tobizaru could not do anything with it, and caught Shodai’s follow up strike. Both end the day 5-6, and are headed for Darwin in my estimation.

Kotonowaka defeats Midorifuji – Midorifuji was horribly off balance from the start, and only his thrashing about kept Kotonowaka from dropping him to the clay any sooner. That’s loss 8 for Midorifuji, and he is make-koshi, while Kotonowaka improves to 5-6.

Kiribayama defeats Hiradoumi – Kiribayama looked very good today, strong, in control and shutting down all of Hiradoumi’s probing attacks. On the topic of Hiradoumi – this guy really gave the Ozeki hopeful a tough fight. He continues to impress me. But it seems Kiribayama is a man on a mission right now, with the skill to see it done. He waits out Hiradoumi, and then brutes him out by yorikiri. Kiribayama now 9-2, and faces kadoban Ozeki Takakeisho on day 12.

Wakamotoharu defeats Hokuseiho – What amazes me is that there is no chance to use an ottsuke against this guy. He just reaches over you and grabs your mawashi from the back. Wakamotoharu knows he is fighting an uphill battle, but really pours on the power against Hakuho’s giant. There is a lengthy chest to chest stalemate where Wakamotoharu seems to be testing how long Hokuseiho can maintain the pressure. The answer is – a long time. Wakamotoharu attacks first, and is shut down. Hokuseiho decides time is up, and moves for the yorikiri, but then Wakamotoharu gets one last roll of the dice. As Hokuseiho presses forward, Wakamotoharu moves for an utchari. Keep in mind, Wakamotoharu is rotating with giant in his grip, but manages to complete the arc, bringing Hokuseiho to the clay a moment before he touches down himself. Brilliant move. Wakamotoharu secures kachi-koshi at 8-3.

Takakeisho defeats Daieisho – What would you do if your friend was hurt and defending a hard-won rank that you yourself hope to achieve? That’s right, you make it look good. I am not saying Daieisho threw this match. But it did turn out the “right” way, did it not. Daieisho, you are a hero in my book. Both end the day 7-4, and Takakeisho can clear kadoban tomorrow.

Terunofuji defeats Hoshoryu – That’s nine matches that Hoshoryu has fought against Terunofuji, and not a single win. This guy gets worried about the kaiju and leaves the last 10% of his sumo in the akeni. Double inside grip against Terunofuji? You should know where that one goes. A quick kimedashi. Terunofuji evens up with Asanoyama at 10-1.

Welcome sumo fans to the opening day of act 3 of the 2023 Natsu basho. We enter the final five days of the tournament, where we sort everyone into kachi-koshi and make-koshi, and someone takes hope the Emperor’s Cup. Along the way there will plenty of twists and turns, and we will get to see much larger rank differences between competitors in head to head match ups. I am going to assume that the opening salvo in this barrage of awesome match ups is today’s Hokuseiho vs Wakamotoharu. Were I blessed to be in the Kokugikan for day 11, it would merit it’s own can of beer for this match alone.

Asanoyama continues to have the easier route to the yusho, but I expect that to change soon as well. He is more than up to the challenge of facing any of the san’yaku, though it is a bit unorthodox to put a M14 up against the named ranks. We all know its high time it happened. But to be fair, for every win he gets against these guys, it should juice his boost for Nagoya.

Natsu Leaderboard

With Meisei out of the leaders group, he’s going to hope that someone puts dirt on both Asanoyama and Terunofuji. He gets a big say in that today as he faces Asanoyama head to head in the middle of today’s fight card. Terunofuji starts his tour of the named ranks, and we get to see just how much his body can take for the final 5 days. I must compliment him on getting to 9-1 at the start of act 3, he’s one tough competitor. But can he brute his way through the pain for 5 more days?

Leaders: Terunofuji, Asanoyama
Chasers: Kiribayama, Meisei, Hokuseiho
Hunt Group: Hoshoryu, Daieisho, Wakamotoharu, Hiradoumi, Tsurugisho

5 Matches Remain

What We Are Watching Day 11

Mitoryu (4-6) vs Daishoho (4-6) – Daishoho has won 3 of their last 4 matches, including the one match earlier this year. Given that they have matching 4-6 records, the bias will be toward Daishoho winning again.

Kagayaki (4-6) vs Takarafuji (3-7) – Takarafuji will try to stave off make-koshi against the hapless Kagayaki. I am not sure where Kagayaki’s sumo has gone, but he’s been pretty miserable for a while now. Takarafuji is currently no better, but does bring a 13-6 career advantage into today’s match.

Ryuden (3-7) vs Aoiyama (4-6) – Ryuden likewise working to hold of on his 8th loss, against Big Dan Aoiyama today. Aoiyama has a 7-5 career advantage, and I think Ryuden has re-injured himself. Since day 6 he has lost 5 in a row, and cannot seem to handle movement well. He suffers from a chronic hip injury.

Onosho (5-5) vs Myogiryu (6-4) – The last two days have seen Onosho launch into chest to chest grappling contests within the first two steps, and each time it turns out poorly for him. Perhaps today we will see him return to his oshi-zumo form that tends to win matches for him. Or it could be the case that he has some injury or limitation that is causing him to not use “his brand of sumo” right now. He has a 13-3 career record against Myogiryu.

Chiyoshoma (6-4) vs Takanosho (3-7) – I expect Takanosho to lose this match today, and that will be make-koshi for him. He has lost 3 of the last 4, and both moving poorly, and not able to hold ground. By contrast Chiyoshoma is showing us some of the best sumo from him in the past year.

Sadanoumi (5-5) vs Oho (6-4) – I like this contest, as it puts to the test not just an 8 rank banzuke grip, but the question about wether Oho has actually gotten is sumo in line. I do hope we don’t see Sadanoumi sling himself at breakneck speed directly into Oho’s broad, pasty body. With any luck he will stay mobile and give Oho a lot of complexity to work through today.

Ichiyamamoto (3-7) vs Tamawashi (4-6) – Tamawashi has not lost to Ichiyamamoto in 2 prior attempts. But Tamawashi is a pale shade of his normal combative self, and I don’t know if he will be able to win this one today. Ichiyamamoto has lost five of the last six matches, and a loss today would be make-koshi for him.

Tsurugisho (7-3) vs Mitakeumi (6-4) – What would a day of sumo be without a battle of the mega-fauna? Mitakeumi is not nearly as bulbous as he was only recently, and it does seem to have improved his sumo somewhat. Is it enough to let him handle a nearly 200kg rampaging Tsurugisho? They have one prior match, during Natsu of 2015 when both were in Makushita. Wow!

Meisei (8-2) vs Asanoyama (9-1) – A big match that many of us are looking forward to. We get to see if Meisei can take the stuffing out of former Ozeki and yusho hopeful Asanoyama. Meisei lost his share of the lead when Hakuho’s giant, Hokuseiho, upended Meisei on day 10. He can do his part to claw his way back in the lead by putting Asanoyama on the deck. He will have his hands full, as Asanoyama has won 5 of their 7 prior matches, and continues to fight quite well.

Kinbozan (4-6) vs Kotoeko (5-5) – Fresh from dropping injured Ozeki Takakeisho, Kinbozan comes back down the ranks to tangle with Kotoeko. Both are near the make-koshi/kachi-koshi center line, and may be steering toward day 15 7-7 records. I agree, it’s time to start grooming the Darwin candidates.

Hokutofuji (4-6) vs Nishikigi (4-6) – Another Darwin grooming match, with both rikishi coming in at 4-6. They have 9 prior matches, and are just about evenly split. Nishikigi is on a bit of a tear as of late, having won 3 in a row including against Takakeisho and Wakamotoharu.

Ura (4-6) vs Nishikifuji (2-8) – Nishikifuji is already make-koshi, so perhaps this is him donating a win to keep Ura afloat. I think Ura is a good candidate for yet another Darwin match, which seem to be a recurring theme for him. He has won all 3 of their prior matches, including two prior this year.

Abi (5-5) vs Takayasu (0-1-9) – Look who is back! By back, I mean a broad, rather hairy back indeed. It’s Takayasu rejoining the competition for reasons nobody can explain. Maybe he wants a win or two to cushion his fall down the banzuke. Fair enough. Here, enjoy a fight with Abi.

Shodai (4-6) vs Tobizaru (5-5) – I think this is another Darwin grooming match. Tobizaru has also made it a habit as of late to end day 14 at 7-7, so he is a likely candidate given his score to start act 3. I don’t think they can nursemaid Shodai up to 7-7 except by using a stand in. His sumo the past few days has been pretty sour. He does hold a 6-2 career advantage against Tobizaru. Maybe he can rally today.

Kotonowaka (4-6) vs Midorifuji (3-7) – The expectation here seems to be that Kotonowaka will pick up his 5th win to keep him in the Darwin group, while rendering Midorifuji make-koshi with his 8th loss. All signs point to this as the most likely outcome, given that Kotonowaka holds a 5-1 career advantage.

Kiribayama (8-2) vs Hiradoumi (7-3) – Time for a bit of fun. Nagasaki upstart Hiradoumi can earn his kachi-koshi today by beating Ozeki hopeful Kiribayama. Not too tough a day on the job, right? They have ever fought before, and there is about a 10 rank banzuke different between them.

Hokuseiho (8-2) vs Wakamotoharu (7-3) – Ah, but we can do it the other way, too! Yotsu-zumo master practitioner Wakamotoharu can reach kachi-koshi today if he can just defeat the human apartment block in single combat. They have never matched before, and I do believe that Wakamotoharu will be trying something new and challenging today. Hopefully he coaxes Hokuseiho into an energetic fight.

Daieisho (7-3) vs Takakeisho (6-4) – Why stop there? Lets make a pair of friends fight! One of them is a kadoban OZeki and really needs the wins. The other would love to be Ozeki one day, but really needs to reach double digits. Normally these fights go to Takakeisho by a ratio of 16-6, but Takakeisho’s body is breaking down a bit more each day. A Daieisho win today would be kachi-koshi.

Terunofuji (9-1) vs Hoshoryu (7-3) – Its the Yokozuna vs the Peacock. Terunofuji has never lost a match to this strutting dandy, but there is a reach chance he might today. He has managed to blast his way through the lower ranks, enough to get him safely past kachi-koshi, but now the ready fights begin. Will he successfully win the match before Hoshoryu ever steps on the clay?