Are we really going to see a double Yokozuna promotion?

On top of all the normal excitement for the first basho of the year, Hatsu 2025 brings the added anticipation of a potential double Yokozuna promotion. With Kotozakura and Hoshoryu both on rope runs, how likely are we to see two new Yokozuna in March?

Taken individually, both men are in range of “normal” pre-Yokozuna careers. Since 1958, wrestlers promoted to Yokozuna have needed an average of 32 tournaments in makuuchi to achieve the rank. Kotozakura is in his 28th tournament and Hoshoryu is only one behind at 27. Both rikishi are in the average range of others promoted to Yokozuna.

ShikonaBasho to Promotion
Taiho11
Futahaguro12
Asashoryu13
Kitanoumi15
Wajima15
Akebono15
Kashiwado19
Hakuho19
Chiyonofuji22
Hokutoumi23
Tochinoumi23
Sadanoyama25
Takanohana26
Wakanohana (56)27
Onokuni28
Wakanohana (45)31
Terunofuji31
Asashio35
Tamanoumi36
Kitanofuji37
Takanosato43
Kakuryu44
Asahifuji45
Musashimaru46
Harumafuji47
Wakanohana (66)47
Kotozakura57
Mienoumi60
Kisenosato73

In the case of Hoshoryu, a promotion would be somewhat surprising only because of how precisely “on average” he has been. As seen in the table below, The Nephew has been right on pace with the number of tournaments spent at every level. A top performance and promotion in January would be 4 tournaments early!

 

Tournaments at rank

 OzekiSekiwakeKomusubiMaegashiraTotal
Average*13.35.93.29.431.9
Kotozakura6341528
Hoshoryu963927
  • 1958-Present

If either Kotozakura or Hoshoryu earn promotion, it would be unremarkable. But what about both? While it has only happened in 1961 and 1970, the two have something in their favor. In both previous double-promotions, the rikishi were on similar career arcs to one another. In January 1970, Tamanoumi was promoted after his 36th Makuuchi tournament. Kitanofuji joined him after his 37th tournament. Similarly, in September 1961, Taiho was promoted after only his 11th tournament. While Kashiwado got the rope after his 19th basho. The 8 basho gap seems significant; but only 8 men have achieved the rank of Yokozuna in under 20 tournaments: so they are in a similar grouping. The 28 tournaments for Kotozakura and 27 for Hoshoryu fit the pattern of rikishi at similar stages in their career enjoying simultaneous promotion.

In the modern area, there has been one joint promotion of fast risers in 1961 and one joint promotion of slightly slower than average champions in 1970. Perhaps we are due for a pair of slightly faster than average ascenders in 2025. But it seems highly unlikely.

In a fitting twist, the sumo spirits seem to have other pairs ready to ruin the party. At the top Terunofuji is set to appear and reassert his dominance. An even greater threat is probably Onosato. Right below the Ozeki, the Waka- brothers will be looking to continue their rise. And further down still, Takerufuji and Hakuoho seem set to rack up early wins against overmatched opponents in hopes of playing late spoilers.

January 12th can’t get here soon enough!

Two Juryo Promotions Confirmed

As Leonid postulated, Hatsuyama (Tamanoi) and Kiryuko (Tatsunami) were promoted to Juryo. Hatsuyama will make his debut while Kiryuko will have his second attempt competing as sekitori. Kotokuzan’s narrow 4-3 record was not good enough to earn promotion from Ms4 but he will move closer to the promised land and have a good chance at promotion in January. Makuuchi veterans Chiyomaru and Onosho will likely slide into Makushita in January.

There is also news of eight retirements after the Kyushu tournament. Three men from Sandanme retired: Hayanami, Kotoozutsu, and Chiyoresshi. Two men from Jonidan retired: Daishosei and Kotoryusei. Jonokuchi wrestler Daishiyama as well as Nishikiori and Kokiryu, who had fallen off the banzuke, also retired. Unfortunately, I have not seen any news of Kawazoe since his early win and subsequent kyujo announcement. We will bring an update as soon as we have one.

Kyushu Promotions

We received the news today that Onosato’s promotion to Ozeki is official. The Kyokai made them stand there and wait for a half-hour before getting down to business. The actual ceremony lasted about 50 seconds. I mean, the kid isn’t used to waiting. He didn’t even wait to get an oicho-mage before earning this promotion. But they waited so long, he might be able to get one now.

Onosato’s promotion

Juryo

Leonid predicted the six Juryo promotions correctly. It did end up being six promotions, not seven. We will probably not know who was demoted, and who escaped, until the banzuke comes out. Do you think Kiryuko stays? The list of promotees is:

  • Wakaikari (Isenoumi)
  • Aonishiki (Ajigawa)
  • Kotoeiho (Sadogatake)
  • Tochitaikai (Kasugano)
  • Chiyomaru (Kokonoe)
  • Nabatame (Futagoyama)

The first three are new to the division. Kototebakari changed his shikona to Kotoeiho. The character for “ei” is the same for Sakae, as in his Saitama Sakae High School. Hō is the same as in his brother’s shikona, Kotoshoho.

Sumo News Update 2024.06.02

Natsu Basho ended last weekend. We have to wait until July for the next tournament. Once we get the Juryo promotions, we’re Gone Till November July, right? Well, the Kyokai’s usual board meeting had a full agenda so we have had a bunch of sumo-related news this week.

Juryo Promotions Announced

We will have three promotions from Makushita to Juryo for Nagoya. Kayo and Nabatame earned their first sekitori promotions and Fujiseiun will return to Juryo for the first time since he fell out of the division in September.

Kayo is one of Nakamura-oyakata’s recruits from Nippon Sports Science University, aka Nittaidai. The university has developed a number of top sumo wrestlers, including sekitori stablemates* Onosato and Shirokuma, as well as up-and-comers like Onokatsu and veterans like Myogiryu. Kayo earned a sandanme tsukedashi but has spent much of the last two years in Makushita. A spot in the massive playoff at Aki last year seems to have lit a spark under him and he has been on the radar for promotion to Juryo since.

Nabatame started his sumo career after high school, just before the pandemic hit. He was definitely one of our highlighted up-and-comers during those quiet tournaments. I have quietly been following his rise since he featured in one of the early maezumo cohorts that I followed during the pandemic. (How many of you remember Taiyo and his maezumo henka? One of the PowerBall goals of Tachiai is to have the resources to cover each division and better profiles of the younguns in maezumo, along with deeper features about the fascinating cultural tangents I find myself learning about.) But I would bring back that maezumo coverage in a heartbeat. Nice to re-read those articles and catch myself back up on his entry to the sport. Nabatame has since been grinding it out in Makushita, slowly but steadily climbing to the top of the division. We are happy to see that he has finally earned his promotion to sekitori.

Fujiseiun returns to the Juryo ranks after an injury forced him to drop after just a single tournament fighting in Juryo (his second tournament was kyujo). It is always hard to see these up-and-comers hit major obstacles. He had hit the scene and steamrolled through the lower divisions in 2021, winning his first 21 bouts and claiming two of the three yusho, only losing the Jonidan yusho in a playoff to his peer, Osanai. So it is great to see that he will don his kesho mawashi yet again.

While we are talking about these banzuke placements for July, I should also note here that two Makushita tsukedashi were approved by the Kyokai. Ishizaki Ryoma (23) and Kawabuchi Kazuma (22) will begin their professional sumo careers this summer. Ishizaki will join his older brother, Asakoryu, at Takasago-beya having claimed third place at last year’s National Sumo Championships. Kawabuchi claimed the adult division yusho at a separate athletic tournament last year and he joins Kise-beya.

Nakamura Beya Opens

The little asterisk there in Kayo’s promotion report had to do with his sekitori stablemates because they are not his stablemates any longer. Mid-week, Kayo celebrated his promotion to Juryo with photo-ops and press conferences joined by Kisenosato. However, during this week’s board meeting the Kyokai approved Nakamura’s independence bid, setting June 1 for when Nakamura would split away from Nishonoseki. So, by the end of the week Kayo was moving into new digs at his new heya with his new master — without Onosato and Shirokuma.

I believe the new stable is at the location vacated by Michinoku-beya, just on the other side of the tracks from Kokugikan in Ryokoku. Nakamura-oyakata (ex-Yoshikaze) is now a stable master in his own right. There is a great new website, nakamurabeya.jp, with details of the occupants: eight wrestlers, the Yobidashi Rokuro, and hairdresser Tokokasumi. There is also a great little personalized note from Yoshikaze about each of them.

Mini-Jungyo Sumo Events

I will get to the retirement events in a moment but I thought June was going to be pretty chill, event-wise. The Kyokai has decided to participate in two more promotional events in June.

The first will be a PR event for the Kyusho Basho next Sunday, June 9 in Fukuoka. Four top-division wrestlers will be there. Top billing goes to Hiradoumi (his rise has been quite something). Ura, Shodai, and Sadanoumi will also be there. Shodai and Sadanoumi are both from Kumamoto.

Secondly, the Kyokai will also participate in a Sports Expo at the Dolphins Arena in Nagoya on June 16. Next year, the Arena is slated to be replaced by a new IG Arena. (Oh, God, please tell me there’s air conditioning.) In celebration of the new, refrigerated digs the Kyokai will host a crossover event with the Dolphins basketball team. Aside from the hoopsters, Onosato, Tobizaru, Midorifuji, Atamifuji, and Abi will participate.

So, if you are in Fukuoka or Nagoya this month, you have a chance to pop by and meet some of your favorite sumo wrestlers — or even Shodai.

Ishiura Danpatsushiki

On Saturday, June 1, the Kokugikan hosted Ishiura’s retirement and name change event, since he carries on as a coach, Magaki-oyakata, in the Association. Hakuoho made waves by singing the jinku (traditional folk singing) portion and Enho closed things with the bow-twirling ceremony.

Takerufuji, mounted the dohyo and faced off against Meisei in one of the exhibition bouts. Usually these exhibition events are not big news makers on the dohyo but the fact that Takerufuji was healthy enough to participate in the feature bouts is a good sign for July.

Given the closure of Miyagino-beya, Hakuho was robbed of the privilege of taking the final cut of Ishiura’s topknot but he did get to use the scissors and take a snip. Isegahama-oyakata got the honor of taking the final cut.

Akiseyama Danpatsushiki

And on Sunday, June 2, the Kokugikan opened its doors again for Akiseyama’s retirement ceremony. The Kise-beya affair celebrated the big man’s career and shared stories of his camaraderie with fellow wrestlers. In particular they shared a story involving Goeido.

Though Goeido entered the sumo world a few years earlier than Akiseyama, the former Ozeki was actually Akiseyama’s junior schoolmate while they attended Saitama Sakae high school. Goeido went straight into a sumo career while Akiseyama attended Nihon Daigaku. Goeido had given Akiseyama some encouragement when Akiseyama had been thinking of retirement. Akiseyama took the encouragement to heart and earned another promotion to Juryo.

Looking Ahead

I will keep an eye on the sumo news, as always, but I anticipate my next post will be next weekend after Chiyonokuni’s retirement ceremony and the Fukuoka PR event.