After fighting for most of the basho on odd numbered days, for his fifth bout, American sumotori Wakaichiro has been swapped to day 10. This time he faces Jonokuchi 8 Toranofuji, from the Isegahama stable. Isegahama is a powerhouse heya, and is home to Harumafuji, Terunofuji and Takarafuji. They also have an enormous swarm of entry level fighters floating around Jonokuchi and Jonidan – giving the schedulers headaches as they try to keep them matched day over day.
Toranofuji began sumo via Mae-zumo the same basho that Wakaichiro did, so for this day, he faces another relative newcomer to the sport. Wakaichiro and Toranofuji both come into their day 10 match with a 3-1 record, the winning will secure their kachi-koshi, and likely promotion to Jonidan for the May basho.
As always, Tachiai will bring you all the details of this match as soon as we can get our hands on them. Go Texas Sumo!
One of these men is more consistent than the others – and basically everyone else.
Hi there – this is my first guest post on the site, so thanks for having me! Following Bruce’s analysis last week, contrasting the early upper san’yaku vs lower san’yaku results from the current Basho to that of last year’s Nagoya tournament, I posited that it might be interesting to have a look at a larger sample size and determine if what we’re seeing is the product of a shift in the performance of the upper san’yaku over time, and what it might mean.
I pulled the first week win/loss data (up through day 8) of each tournament going back to January 2015, the logic being that a 2 year period of first week bouts would give us an idea of what it means to perform at the level of a Yokozuna or an Ozeki in this day and age. I selected 8 days because this has typically been the tipping point in the tournament after which the upper san’yaku (of which there have usually been 7) stop being polite and start being real, and are then starting to fight each other.
Finally, I removed forfeit matches due to rikishi going kyujo from the equation entirely. While these wins and losses show up in the history books, they don’t give us a true read on whether or not the rikishi involved are performing at the expected talent level.
This is all basic stuff and is meant to be a jumping off point from which assumptions can be based so that we can have some more detailed conversations in future. So let’s see what the data (which you can see in rawer form here) tells us:
* A Yokozuna can usually be counted on to lose one match in the first week. Over 2015 & 2016, the win rate (or wins per day in Bruce’s format) of a Yokozuna is 85.7%. Taking into account that healthy rikishi will fight 24 times, we’d expect to see 3 losses from the group and this is exactly what happened in 8 of those 12 tournaments.
* Ozeki typically perform 15% worse than the Yokozuna. So, they lose a little more than 1 more match apiece on average than their more prestigious counterparts. Interestingly, this is exactly what has transpired in 2017 as well as 2015 and 2016 – the downturn in Yokozuna performance (~10%) has been almost exactly matched by their Ozeki counterparts in spite of Kisenosato moving up a level: his brilliant Hatsu masked disasters from Terunofuji and Kotoshogiku, while his promotion has covered for the kyujo Hakuho and underperforming Harumafuji and Kakuryu.
* Hakuho isn’t in trouble – at least as far as week 1 is concerned. He was 7-1 in January and having gone kyujo twice in the 2 years prior (including once mid-basho), he came back with 8-0 and 7-1 starts. He clearly was struggling early in this tournament along with Harumafuji and Kakuryu (who have since seen their records improve), but if his body works then the early results bear out when fighting against his lower ranking san’yaku competitors.
* Sekiwake up their game. Over 2015-16, the expected win rate for a Sekiwake in week 1 was a paltry 46.3% – you wouldn’t even expect them to end up 4-4 never mind challenge for Ozeki promotion, which obviously only happened once (Terunofuji) in that time frame. However this has increased over the first two basho of 2017 to 64.6% – almost as good as an Ozeki would usually be expected to perform (70%).
* This hasn’t been reflected at Komusubi level. Usually Komusubi win 33.2% of their first week matches, but that’s only up to 35.4% this year. Tochinoshin’s tanking at Hatsu is somewhat to blame for this but of the four Komusubi performances this year, only Takayasu has turned in a winning performance at the level in matches fought, and even that was only a 4-3 standing after 8 days. This is still as hard of a level as ever to compete at.
* The recent lower san’yaku level of performance isn’t totally unprecedented, however. While we began to see the tide swing toward the lower san’yaku in January, there were actually 5 better performances over the past couple years – a 5 basho streak starting with a 50% success rate in March 2015 through to a 43.8% hit rate in December 2015 – from the up and comers than in January (42.9% success rate).
* Takayasu may be more special than we think. Most Sekiwake have never returned to the rank over the past 2+ years: only 3 prior rikishi have re-obtained the title after losing it since the start of 2015. However, unlike Ichinojo, Myogiryu and Okinoumi, Takayasu looks to be the first to fight back and look capable of not only hold the rank but have the stuff to move up. Of the prior three, only Myogiryu was even tenuously able to cling on for one more basho at the ranking.
* Kisenosato starts as well as anyone not named Hakuho. While his historical troubles with finishing off the yusho have been well detailed, his week 1 performances have outshined Kakuryu over the last 2+ years and he’s in a dead heat with Harumafuji’s level of performance. While it’s not clear yet that he’s better at this level than a healthy Hakuho, Hakuho’s toe problem means the Shin-Yokozuna was already for all intents and purposes the top dog coming out of the traps even before the the first grain of salt was thrown at Haru.
* No one’s success rate has taken a bigger hit than Goeido. The Ozeki from Osaka’s first week win rate has dropped over 20% in 2017. Historically he’d been expected to win almost exactly two thirds of his opening week matches, but he now sits at a lacklustre 46% – the exact tally we’d typically expect from a Sekiwake that’s might be demoted lower. He really shouldn’t have turned up unfit at Haru.
So what does all of this mean? There’s a certain shift as we’re seeing results that haven’t been there over the past several years, but it’s much too soon to call it a day on the current crop of Yokozuna. At Haru, they’ve lost 2 more matches as a group than we’d expect to have seen, but as recently as November they were turning in a vintage week 1 performance that stands up to anything else they’ve done recently, battering the lower san’yaku with better than expected results.
Health aside, in the short term the data shows that we can probably expect to see some more turbulence in the rankings of a small group of rikishi in between the Sekiwake and Ozeki tiers, and what it means to fight at those levels may become somewhat blurry if Kotoshogiku ends up as the first in what could be a string of yo-yo rikishi. The next two or three basho will be telling to be sure, and I’ll continue to update the data to see how the san’yaku bear out against each other in the early going to try and pick up more signals.
Going into Haru, Terunofuji was a sad, depressing tale. As readers of Tachiai recall, both Andy and I lamented that Terunofuji was this amazing unstoppable force. Even Hakuho could not be counted on reliably to stop him. There were rikishi who were privately afraid to face him on the dohyo, as he had a tendency to win in ways that risked injury to his opponents.
Then came injuries, and more injuries. The Mongolian giant sometimes appeared as if he could hardly mount the dohyo let along present himself as a worthy opponent. As a result, he has been kadoban 4 times in the last 8 basho, and was becoming a bit of a parody of this original self. In the basho where he was able to secure a winning record, it was always 8-7, the minimum required. He was limping along, hoping to somehow endure.
On Tachiai we openly discussed if he should consider retirement, as he was not presenting Ozeki class sumo, and was embarrassing himself. There is nothing we can find in the sumo press that discusses how Terunofuji returned to close to his original form, but it’s clear that at least for Haru, the great Terunofuji is back.
Tachiai congratulates the big Ozeki in not just returning to confirmed Ozeki status, but doing so in a truly welcome display of strength and skill.
Arawashi needs a miracle to stave off make-koshi but as we saw last tournament, that doesn’t mean he can’t grab a few kinboshi. He pretty well man-handled Harumafuji today. He met him head-on from the tachiai and then stood his ground as Haru moved left, torqueing the yokozuna back across the ring and out. The Maegashira now has kinboshi against his three compatriot yokozuna, going back to last tournament. Harumafuji is now effectively out of the yusho race, three losses back.
Kisenosato stays in the lead shared with stablemate, Takayasu, as a quick pull led to a hatakikomi victory – and a belly full of clay for Kotoshogiku. Giku still needs 4 more wins in this final week to regain his rank. Kakuryu also put away his opponent, Takarafuji, with relative ease. He was never threatened by Takarafuji’s charge and maintained his position square in the center of the ring as he worked the maegashira out.
Terunofuji is hungry. Unfortunately, always eager Ikioi was the main course. All that was needed was a left handed belt grip and the ozeki paraded Ikioi around before shoving him off the dohyo to a losing record. Ikioi landed on his feet but that sure didn’t look too comfortable as Bruce is likely right, he seems a bit injured. So, now it’s assured he will fall down the banzuke. The only question is how far? It kills me when he goes on these losing streaks.
Takayasu effectively countered Takekaze’s version of the mini-henka to stay unbeaten and on top with Kise. He put on the brakes quickly and slapped the 37-year-old veteran for trying to pull that crap. Harumafuji usually succeeds in getting a secure belt grip and using the opponent’s momentum to start a death spin. (As mentioned above, it didn’t work for the yokozuna today because Arawashi stood his ground.) But Takekaze didn’t get any part of Takayasu’s belt. Instead, his face got a whole bunch of Takayasu, and then clay, as the sekiwake batted him down.
