Arawashi (荒鷲)

Kyushu Day 2 Highlights

Andy Abi (阿炎), Arawashi (荒鷲), Asanoyama (朝乃山), Chiyomaru, Chiyonokuni (千代の国), Chiyotairyū (千代大龍), Daiamami (大奄美), Endo (遠藤), Gōeidō (豪栄道), Kimarite (決まり手), Kyushu Basho 2018, Myogiryu (妙義龍)

Today was Oshidashi Day in Fukuoka. Well, in reality, nearly every day is oshidashi day. But 8 makuuchi bouts, or nearly half of the matchups, were decided by this most basic of the basic kimarite. In my mind, tsukidashi is basically oshidashi with velocity (think Abi’s Superman) while yorikiri is oshidashi with intimacy (think Kotoshogiku and “hug-n-chug”).

So it’s fitting that we start out with Kotoeko’s oshidashi win over a hobbled Arawashi. After a well-met tachiai, Arawashi pulled to his left which may not have been the best idea on that heavily wrapped knee. Kotoeko adjusted and drove through the straw bales. The announcer said yorikiri but that finish really lacked the 四つ身 intimacy one would think of. Kotoeko had Arawashi at arm’s length, like one would hold my son’s socks, rather than in close like Bogart and Bergman. The distinctions I’m drawing here are my own and (as is usual) could be wrong…it’s just the way I think of it and welcome discussion in the comments. Arawashi is 0-2 and looking Juryo bound.

Meisei followed up by showing us what Arawashi likely meant to do. The quick left pivot and firm hold on Chiyomaru’s right arm left Chiyomaru struggling (briefly) to maintain his balance before getting tipped over the side and rolling down the slope of the dohyo. Kotenage, one of two finishing throws in the top division today. Meisei’s off to a great start at 2-0. Chiyomaru is not at 0-2.

After an initial yotsu tussle, Chiyoshoma seemed to realize that would not be wise paired with someone 50 kilos larger. So he disengaged but tried to keep hold of Daiamami’s mawashi. That wasn’t working so he backed away altogether, skirting the tawara when, Bam!. Landing the slap to the giant’s face turned the retreating Chiyoshoma back into the aggressor. He dove for Daiamami’s belt and as the larger man attempted to circle, a quick kick out brought Daiamami earthward. Clever kekaeshi to go to 2-0. I like those. Herouth’s post from yesterday has another great example from the flying monkey. Daiamami is level, 1-1.

Daishomaru had a plan. And thinking back on it, this approach may have served Arawashi well earlier. At the tachiai, Daishomaru’s paw found its way to the back of Takanosho’s neck. Backing away to the left, as Arawashi had tried before, along with the addition of downward force of the right hand dispatched Takanosho. Hatakikomi under duress (distinct from henka-ki-komi). Daishomaru improved to 1-1 while Takanosho is still looking for his first win, 0-2.

Onosho is looking good early in this tournament. It’s too soon to start handing out special prizes but he’s in a position to clean up. Aoiyama, on the other hand, is looking shaky. This starts off with a brief slapping tussle that ends when Aoiyama gets his hand behind Onosho’s head and retreats, attempting another hatakikomi. However, Onosho was far too high and well balanced for this to be effective. Onosho countered quickly by driving forward and sending Aoiyama over the edge, stumbling into the spectators, nearly squashing Endo. Lacking intimacy, and lacking the force required to turn a mountain into a projectile, we have an oshidashi #2. Onosho is rocking to a 2-0 start; Aoiyama heading in the opposite direction, falls to 0-2.

Endo proved unfazed by his near-death experience and quickly beat Okinoumi. A motivated Endo is great to see. Strong tachiai, driving forward, Okinoumi could only hope for a last minute change of direction. But Endo locked on, engaged, and Okinoumi had nowhere to go but out. Oshidashi #3. Both wrestlers are 1-1.

Sadanoumi copied Endo’s lead against Chiyonokuni. Lock on, engage, drive forward. The difference, this time, was rather than having his arms extended, Sadanoumi immediately gripped Chiyonokuni’s mawashi before getting into gear. Chiyonokuni ended up in a painful-looking heap at the base of the dohyo. The intimacy gives us “yori-” and Chiyonokuni couldn’t keep his feet, we get -taoshi. The yoritaoshi win means Sadanoumi is off to a great 2-0 start. Chiyonokuni is 1-1.

Yutakayama squared up against Daieisho for a great, thrusting slapfest. Both wrestlers committed early to pushing/thrusting attacks. After taking a battering, Daieisho yielded in retreat and Yutakayama followed in hot pursuit. Yutakayama may have been a bit overeager to end things as a subtle shift redirected the mountain over the cliff-face…with a little help…dropping like a boulder to 0-2. Daieisho improves to 1-1. Tsukiotoshi is one of the hinerite, twisting kimarite, not one of the similarly named tsukidashi/tsukitaoshi “basic” kihonwaza.

Next, Kotoshogiku was able to lock in his patented hug-n-chug against Ikioi. Yorikiri. Ikioi falls to 0-2 on a shaky looking ankle. Kotoshogiku’s off to a great 2-0 start. Next, Shohozan seemed determined to prove Takarafuji has a neck. He nearly decapitated Isegahama’s senior sekitori at the tachiai and kept pressing, eventually convincing Takarafuji to yield, as he stepped out for oshidashi #4. Takarafuji is starting off winless while a confident Shohozan is 2-0.

Abi’s next against Takanoiwa. Hmmm…belt battle? No, silly question. Abi charged forward, fighting to his strength. Takanoiwa retreated quickly, falling to oshidashi #5 and 0-2 while Abi gets his first win his way.

Kagayaki and Asanoyama locked in quickly for a belt battle. Kagayaki’s left arm wrapped around Asanoyama’s right, but while he was seeking a good belt grip with the left, Asanoyama dropped his shoulder, working his arm free, and planted his hand firmly behind Kagayaki’s head. With a firm left-handed belt grip, he pivoted, throwing Kagayaki to the clay. Uwatenage. Asanoyama improved to 2-0 and Kagayaki fell to 1-1.

After his great start yesterday, Shodai somehow went back into “sleep” mode. You can’t just absorb Chiyotairyu’s tachiai at full force and expect to stay at the top of the dohyo. Ryuden chugged forward into an overwhelmed Yoshikaze. And Mitakeumi followed up fiercely driving through Tamawashi. Oshidashi #6, #7, and #8 and all six men are 1-1.

Tochiozan is looking chuffed. I’ve got my eye on this confident veteran. Today he battled Ichinojo. He wasn’t going to be able to drive through the much larger Mongolian but he stood his ground pretty well and when the opportunity presented itself, he quickly twisted left and let gravity do its thing, as Ichinojo dropped to 1-1 and Tochiozan stays undefeated early.

Takakei-yusho? It’s still far two early, obviously, but after two days Takakeisho has now dispatched two of his toughest competitors. There’s really not much to say about this one but a real disappointing loss from Goeido. There was no plan but to slap a few times and fight Takakeisho’s fight? He telegraphed his second shoulder charge giving Takakeisho enough time to slip outside and have a smoke. Takakeisho 2-0, Goeido 1-1.

Nishikigi’s plan going into the Tochinoshin bout was likely, “keep him off your belt.” Job done. However, he didn’t seem ready for Tochinoshin to pivot and shift direction. After taking a Georgian forearm to the chin at the tachiai, Nishikigi seemed out of sorts as Tochinoshin was in front…and then not. Tochinoshin pivoted, and charged in from the side, keeping Nishikigi on the defensive and turning until he charged him out over the side.

Not to disrespect Takakeisho’s upsets but Takayasu must be the yusho favorite now, though. His bout today against Hokutofuji is my bout of the day. This was a great oshi brawl. After a good while trading thrusts, Hokutofuji got Takayasu spun around and saw his chance! But as an Ozeki should, Takayasu recovered quickly, maintained his balance, read Hokutofuji’s final charge, and timed his hatakikomi beautifully. Takayasu escapes and stays undefeated and while Hokutofuji’s 0-2, he’s looking strong.

After an embarrassingly quick loss to Takayasu yesterday, Myogiryu was looking for redemption…and a kinboshi. He’s not had many chances lately and unless he pulls off something unexpected and near kachi-koshi, today would likely be his only chance with Kisenosato as the lone Yokozuna. Boy did he buckle down. After an initial tussle, Myogiryu must have been stunned to find himself with morozashi and superior position as the Yokozuna was far too upright. He charged forward and importantly kept his balance as Kisenosato tried to twist out of the way, before tumbling into the head shimpan.

Aki Day 5 Preview

Bruce H Abi (阿炎), Aki Basho 2018, Arawashi (荒鷲), Chiyomaru, Chiyonokuni (千代の国), Chiyotairyū (千代大龍), Endo (遠藤), Gōeidō (豪栄道), Hakuho (白鵬), Hokutōfuji (北勝富士), Ikioi (勢), Ishiura (石浦), Kagayaki (輝), Kaisei (魁聖), Kakuryu (鶴竜), Kisenosato (稀勢の里), Kotoshogiku (琴奨菊), Kyokutaisei, Mitakeumi(御嶽海), Myogiryu (妙義龍), Nishikigi, Ryuden (竜電), Shohozan, Shōdai (正代直也), Takakeishō (貴景勝), Takayasu (高安), Tochinoshin (栃ノ心), Tochiozan (栃煌山), Yoshikaze (嘉風), Yutakayama, Ōnoshō (阿武咲)

Aki Day 5

Thus act 1 of the Aki basho comes to a close. The job of act 1 is to sort who is hot, from who is not. This has been achieved with great flair and a satisfying amount of good sumo. For the first time since 1989, all Yokozuna are unbeaten after day 4. None of the Ozeki have more than 1 loss, and there are a pair of 4-0 rikishi in the Maegashira ranks. Mitakeumi keeps his Ozeki campaign burning bright by his membership in the 4-0 club, too. Following day 5, the 4+ wins club in the mid to lower Maegashira will likely find themselves competing a bit higher up the banzuke.

Kisenosato has made a fairly solid return, but I am becoming worried that he is not quite genki enough yet to survive week 2. The enormous amount of trouble he had with Kaisei denotes that he could be in real danger of running out of gas starting this weekend. A 15 day match schedule is brutal, and the Yokozuna’s stamina may not yet be up to the task.

With Kyokutaisei kyujo, the banzuke is un-balanced, and we will see visiting Juryo rikishi every day until things balance out by someone else going kyujo, or Kyokutaisei returning (which he should not do). My candidate for kyujo is Aoiyama, who badly hurt his ankle with an ungraceful dohyo dismount on day 4.

What We Are Watching Day 5

Arawashi vs Ishiura – Arawashi brings a 2-2 record up to Makuuchi for day 5. At Juryo 1 East, a kachi-koshi would bring him back to the top division. Meanwhile Ishiura is probably starting to worry where he can find 7 wins over the next 11 days.

Yoshikaze vs Chiyomaru – In a nearly as perilous position is the bulbous Chiyomaru, who has a loyal army of fans. If this were Nagoya, he could almost count on a walk-over win from Yoshikaze. Instead Yoshikaze is looking genki, if not quite berserk at this point of the basho.

Ryuden vs Nishikigi – A match of some interest! Both of them are 3-1, their career record is tied at 2-2, and both of them are fighting well in the first act. Nishikigi has been especially surprising, and I do hope he can keep delivering aggressive sumo.

Hokutofuji vs Kotoshogiku – Another of the great day 5 match ups. Kotoshogiku has been hit-or-miss, largely due to the cumulative damage to his body. But he has been on his sumo since day 1 for Aki. Then there is Hokutofuji, who suffered for a few tournaments with his own injuries, but seems to be dialed in for Aki. He is low, fast and aggressive. Hokutofuji will try to drive thrusts to Kotoshogiku’s center-mass, and stay moving. Kotoshogiku will try to lock him up and give him the business.

Shohozan vs Onosho – I am going to go ahead and say that Onosho is probably not ready for mid-Maegashira post surgery. He’s got loads of talent, skill and enthusiasm, but his body is just not in the fight. Shohozan is always in the fight, any fight, any time. So I see this one as another hard one for Onosho.

Kagayaki vs Tochiozan – Kagayaki comes in at 2-2, and because he is so deliberate, and focused on fundamentals, he slips below a lot of people’s attention. Like many of the fading generation of rikishi, Tochiozan has good days and bad, depending on how many of his acquired injuries are plaguing him today. In spot of that, this should be a fairly even match.

Myogiryu vs Abi – Myogiryu is compact an intense. Abi is disperse and frantic. This has ingredients for some fine sumo, but let’s see if they can set it on fire and send it screaming into the stands.

Chiyonokuni vs Asanoyama – Chiyonokuni is bound to catch a break at some time, and maybe he can pick one up from Asanoyama the Black Knight. Asanoyama has been steadily bulking up more or less in tandem with Freshman class president Yutakayama, and it seems to have helped his defense quite a bit.

Endo vs Kaisei – Endo, too, will eventually catch a break. He is looking very tentative right now, and I am starting wondering if he has re-injured himself either during Jungyo or in the practice matches just before the basho. He has been iffy since day one, and I am sure his fans want him to do what it takes to get whole. Kaisei has maintained his good humor during the tougher elements of his tour through the upper ranks, and I expect his score will improve soon.

Goeido vs Yutakayama – I am looking for Goeido 2.0 or higher again today. Goeido has been able to generate consistent offense thus far, and he is doing quite well. Yutakayama is big enough to require some careful work, but I think Goeido is up to the challenge. I also think that once Yutakayama is done being an Yokozuna-Ozeki chew toy, he will have a fair chance of a kachi-koshi.

Mitakeumi vs Tochinoshin – The big, double-wide match of the day. Tochinoshin leads the series 5-2, and both men are focused, intense and eager for wins. Mitakeumi will try to stay mobile, Tochinoshin will work for the left hand outside. I am just hoping everyone exits the dohyo without further injuries.

Ikioi vs Takayasu – In spite of whatever injuries he was nursing when Aki started, Ozeki Takayasu has been a solid wall of sumo thus far, and none of his opponents have been able to generate much offense against him. Ikioi, meanwhile, is getting the rough and brutal week 1 of the top Maegashira.

Kakuryu vs Chiyotairyu – Kakuryu holds a 9-0 career lead over Chiyotairyu, I don’t see too many chances of that changing today.

Kisenosato vs Shodai – Kisenosato is working harder than he should, most likely because it’s been many months since he has tried to compete. Shodai seems to be evolving, which is quite exiting as it was assume that if he ever got his tachiai into better condition, he would be quite formidable. I still expect Kisenosato to rack another today, but look to see if he struggles to move Shodai.

Takakeisho vs Hakuho – These two have some odd matches in their past. But it seems Hakuho is having some trouble generating forward pressure due to his injuries, and he will default to wanting to throw. This is a challenge against Takakeisho due to his extreme body shape. I still and looking for Hakuho to dominate the Tadpole, but it will be interesting to see how he works it out.

Nagoya Day 13 Highlights

Bruce H Abi (阿炎), Aoiyama, Arawashi (荒鷲), Asanoyama (朝乃山), Chiyomaru, Chiyotairyū (千代大龍), Daieisho (大栄翔), Endo (遠藤), Gōeidō (豪栄道), Hokutōfuji (北勝富士), Ichinojo (逸ノ城), Ishiura (石浦), Kaisei (魁聖), Kotoeko, Kyokutaisei, Meisei, Mitakeumi(御嶽海), Myogiryu (妙義龍), Nagoya basho 2018, Nishikigi, Ryuden (竜電), Sadanoumi (佐田の海), Takayasu (高安), Tamawashi (玉鷲), Tochiozan (栃煌山), Yoshikaze (嘉風), Yutakayama, Ōnoshō (阿武咲) , ,

Nagoya Day 13 Banner

So the theory that there was no Takayasu – Mitakeumi rematch due to time gained a bit of traction in my mind with day 13. Headed into the final division, the entire day’s events were about 20 minutes behind schedule, and the rikishi were encouraged to be prompt and shorten up the pre-match routines. As it was the day’s matches went right to the end. Clearly the new head shimpan and the timekeeper are having some problems organizing the basho.

Fans who were worried about Mitakeumi are encouraged to watch today’s match against Goeido in slow motion. Don’t worry, NHK, or Jason and Kintamayama on YouTube can and will supply footage. True champions overcome adversity and setbacks. Even when stupid calls don’t go their way. They show up and they play the game, and if they lose they go back and play again.

Highlight Matches

Meisei defeats Akiseyama – Akiseyama had early control of the match, but lost initiative when he attempted to change his grip and failed. From there it was Meisei’s match and he pushed hard for the win.

Onosho defeats Kotoeko – Onosho reaches kachi-koshi in the blink of an eye. One push against Kotoeko, followed by a slap down and it was all over.

Hokutofuji defeats Aoiyama – Aoiyama continues to compete hard, even though both legs are massively taped. Hokutofuji again unleashes a sharp tachiai, but bounces off Aoiyama’s massive body. Aoiyama lays on the attack, but Hokutofuji’s upper body endures it, while his lower body keeps moving forward. When Aoiyama attempted to pull, he gave up forward pressure and Hokutofuji surged ahead for the win. We have seen this from Hokotofuji again and again, it’s as if there are two separate processes at work, and more than once it has won the match. Hokotofuji is probably back at mid-Maegashira for Aki, and it’s going to be great to see him challenged.

Nishikigi defeats Sadanoumi – Nishikigi picks up win #6, with a good tachiai and working hard to get inside and then applied maximum force to Sadanoumi’s center mass.

Arawashi defeats Chiyomaru – Chiyomaru picked up his 8th loss, and is now make-koshi. Arawashi took a shallow double hand grip immediately at the tachiai, and pushed forward strongly to win the match.

Yutakayama defeats Tochiozan – Yutakayama goes to double digit wins, but it was an odd match. Yutakayama attacked high, and pressured Tochiozan backward to the bales. Both men lost balance and headed out simultaneously, but in spite of some nice acrobatics, Tochiozan touched down first. Tochiozan is now out of any possible yusho contention.

Asanoyama defeats Myogiryu – Asanoyama joins fellow freshman Yutakayama in double digit wins with his win over Myogiryu. Myogiryu took control early while Asanoyama struggled to find a firm hold. When Myogiryu backed him to the tawara, Asanoyama found the edge and held firm, bringing Myogiryu to his chest, and took control.

Ishiura defeats Kyokutaisei – I am starting to have hope. For the last few matches, Ishiura has been showing us a new level of his sumo. He is more fierce, more focused and more inventive than he has been since his debut tournament in Kyushu of 2016. And it’s giving him wins. Will it be enough to stave off a return to Juryo? I almost think that it might.

Ryuden defeats Daieisho – After a matta / false start Daieisho opened strong, and may have actually pushed out Ryuden’s heel, but no one called it and the match continued. Ryuden rallied strongly, and kept impressively low, bringing the battle back to the center of the dohyo. Daieisho became off balance when he hauled up hard on Ryuden’s loose mawashi, and inadvertently fell forward to lose. Daieisho now make-koshi.

Abi defeats Yoshikaze – The march to the hanyusho continues, and no force in nature seems to be able to stop it. Abi seems to take special care to keep Yoshikaze from falling, just as everyone else has. It seems whatever has robbed him of his sumo is a fairly open secret right now, and everyone gives him a lot of courtesy and protection. It both breaks my heart to know something is wrong, and does me glad to see how every competitor takes care.

Tamawashi defeats Kaisei – Tamawashi foregoes the obligatory kotenage and does a masterful job of disrupting Kaisei’s balance, and keeping him struggling for dependable footing. With repeated glancing collisions, eventually Kaisei falls down and nobody goes to the hospital. Success! Tamawashi picks up kachi-koshi as well.

Chiyotairyu defeats Ichinojo – Chiyotairyu hits his kachi-koshi as well today by keeping Ichinojo adjusting to what kind of sumo will happen next. The match ends with an all too familiar moment where Ichinojo seems to give up.

Takayasu defeats Endo – It was not even a real contest, as Endo was overwhelmed by Takayasu’s freight-train tachiai, and bounced off towards the south-east. Takayasu was happy to help give Endo another shove to ensure his rapid exit and loss.

Mitakeumi defeats Goeido – After day 12, fans who were hoping for a Mitakeumi yusho were incensed, with good cause. Even the commentators for NHK really could not line up behind the shimpan’s unexplainable call. Fans worried that Mitakeumi would lose his edge, would begin to doubt his sumo, and his winning streak would end. Well, take a look at what he did to Goeido. It was Goeido who lost his nerve as they went to the shikirisen, and had to reset. Look at Mitakeumi’s body language, his posture as he faces Goeido prior to the match. This guy has put his mental problems in a box, and put the box some place far far away. Goeido did indeed blast out of the tachiai, and he did succeed in knocking Mitakeumi back and lifting him. But look at Mitakeumi’s footwork in the split second following the tachiai. He absorbs the shock and rotates to his right. Goeido is now perilously overcommitted, and Mitakeumi’s left hand already hooking a grip. With his left hand on Goiedo’s mawashi, and his right hand on the back of Goeido’s neck, Mitakeumi has his feet firmly on clay, and swings Goeido towards the bales. Goeido recognizes he has crafted his own defeat, and we get to see the massive power of his legs come to play in an effort to slow his forward motion. But Mitakeumi follows through and forces Goeido out from behind. The home-town crowd goes wild for their favorite son as Goeido steps out. Top notch planning and execution from Mitakeumi. He played Goeido like a shamisen. At the end of the match as they go to bow. THAT LOOK! Goeido has found a new appreciation for his opponent.

Nagoya Day 13 Preview

Bruce H Abi (阿炎), Aoiyama, Arawashi (荒鷲), Asanoyama (朝乃山), Chiyomaru, Chiyonokuni (千代の国), Chiyotairyū (千代大龍), Endo (遠藤), Gōeidō (豪栄道), Hokutōfuji (北勝富士), Ichinojo (逸ノ城), Ikioi (勢), Ishiura (石浦), Kaisei (魁聖), Kotoeko, Kyokutaisei, Meisei, Mitakeumi(御嶽海), Myogiryu (妙義龍), Nagoya basho 2018, Nishikigi, Sadanoumi (佐田の海), Takakeishō (貴景勝), Takarafuji (宝富士), Takayasu (高安), Tamawashi (玉鷲), Tochiozan (栃煌山), Yoshikaze (嘉風), Yutakayama, Ōnoshō (阿武咲)

Goeido-Mug

Goeido Gets His Chance.

The controversy around the results of day 12’s final match will likely brew for a while. I firmly believe it will have little or no effect on the eventual outcome of the basho. Mitakeumi remains the man to beat, and the only rikishi who has a credible chance is his day 13 opponent, Goeido. What makes this such a puzzle is that Goeido is the ultimate hot/cold rikishi. When he is engaged, as we saw in Aki 2016, the man is unstoppable. But time and again his sumo falls apart, and he under performs. Now we ask – which Goeido will show up day 13? My money is on Goeido 2.1. Mitakeumi will get a blistering fireball of a fight right from the tachiai, but he will battle back with skill, cunning and no small amount of luck.

While the other 3 rikishi in the hunt group have fantastic records going into day 13, any of them represent more of a random “hit or miss” chance against Mitakeumi, rather than a credible threat. But one thing to keep in mind was the puzzle from a few days ago. Ask yourself, what will be the yusho winner’s record? If it’s anything higher than 12-3, Mitakeumi is the winner. That means that mathematically, Mitakeumi only needs one more win to reach, at minimum, jun-yusho status. Quite impressive for a man who has never reached double digits from San’yaku before.

Nagoya Leaderboard

Leader – Mitakeumi
Chasers – none
Hunters – Goeido, Yutakayama, Tochiozan, Asanoyama

3 Matches Remain.

What We Are Watching Day 13

Akiseyama vs Meisei – Meisei is headed back to Juryo, and his day 13 opponent is likely failing to get promoted to Makuuchi from the Juryo 1 slot. If Akiseyama loses to Meisei, he will have locked in his make-koshi.

Kotoeko vs Onosho – Onosho needs one more win to round out his kachi-koshi. Kotoeko is now deeply into a losing record, and possibly headed towards Juryo as well.

Aoiyama vs Hokutofuji – I think this is a brilliant match, in that I think Hokutofuji needs some bigger challenges before the end of the tournament, and I think Aoiyama needs to enjoy some rough and tumble sumo for day 13. Aoiyama is looking for win #8 today, and I do dearly hope that Hokutofuji makes him work hard. Hokutofuji holds a 3-1 lead over the “Man Mountain”.

Sadanoumi vs Nishikigi – If Sadanoumi should win today, he would get kachi-koshi while giving Nishikigi his make-koshi. Now I think that Nishikigi still has a drive to win, but has been rather listless during the second week of Nagoya. Hopefully there is enough genki left to possibly “win out” and end with a kachi-koshi. Nishikigi leads the series 8-5.

Chiyomaru vs Arawashi – Chiyomaru is still looking to avoid a make-koshi, and he’s against hapless Arawashi, who just can’t seem to get his sumo together in Nagoya.

Tochiozan vs Yutakayama – Two of the hunt group go head to head, and only one will remain. It’s not an easy call as Yutakayama continues to fight really well into the second week, and Tochiozan is likely to bounce back form his day 12 loss. But clearly there will be one less person 2 wins behind Mitakeumi following this match. Yutakayama has won both of their prior matches.

Myogiryu vs Asanoyama – Asanoyama needs to win to stay in distant contention for a spot at the yusho brawl if Goeido prevails. He’s up against Myogiryu who is already kachi-koshi, but likely wants to run up the score.

Ishiura vs Kyokutaisei – A Darwin match where the loser will pick up their 8th loss. For Ishiura, this would mean a near certain demotion back to Juryo to try and work out a change to his sumo that is effective against the larger opponents in Makuuchi.

Takarafuji vs Takakeisho – I am surprised how many times Takakeisho has employed his “wave action” sumo this tournament. I would think that the rest of the rikishi would have figured it out rather quickly, but it must be a real problem when he’s hitting you in the face every 3.2 seconds. Takarafuji will try to wrap him up and shut that down, but I worry he is not genki enough to succeed. Takakeisho has won all 3 of their prior matches.

Abi vs Yoshikaze – The next stop on Yoshikaze’s madding quest for secure a glorious hanyusho, he faces off against Abi on day 13. Now Abi’s reach and speed would normally be just playthings for the berserker, but this is clearly not the normal Yoshikaze. So I expect Abi will push him around a bit, and then Yoshikaze will go down to defeat.

Ikioi vs Chiyonokuni – The big question, of course, is Chiyonokuni fit to compete? I know that Ikioi will not give him an easy match, so I would at least expect Chiyonokuni to show up with a significant tape job on that left elbow. An Ikioi win would secure first kachi-koshi from within the joi. Ikioi holds a 7-3 career lead over Chiyonokuni.

Tamawashi vs Kaisei – Will we see another kotenage? Will Kaisei be holding his elbow on day 13? Kaisei is enormous, and the amount of effort Tamawashi would need to exert to apply that move may be beyond what he can muster on the slick Nagoya dohyo. A win would be Tamawashi’s 8th, and would open the question of his promotion to Sekiwake should Ichinojo fail it reach kachi-koshi.

Ichinojo vs Chiyotairyu – Chiyotairyu is still hunting his 8th win, and the last two days have seen Ichinojo revert back to the version that does enjoy sumo. Chiyotairyu has sadly become rather frantic in his sumo, and that won’t really be very useful against a large, partially mobile beast like Ichinojo.

Endo vs Takayasu – Don’t be surprised if you see an announcement that Takayasu has gone kyujo in the next 5 hours. He was clearly damaged from day 1, and now that he has kachi-koshi, a withdrawal would be understandable. But if this match goes ahead, I will be interested to see if Endo can reverse his act 3 fade that he seems to be in the middle of right now.

Goeido vs Mitakeumi – Here is your chuumoku-no-ichiban. All the other matches have their place, but this one is critical to the yusho race. I would look for Goeido to blast hard and fast out of the tachiai, attempting to overwhelm whatever Mitakeumi might have planned before he can begin any offensive sumo. I would expect Mitakeumi to at least hit and shift at the tachiai, knowing that Goeido will charge with everything he’s got. If Goeido wins, the yusho race closes to a 1 match difference. If Mitakeumi wins, he eliminates his strongest competitor. Goeido holds an 8-3 career advantage over Mitakeumi, but Mitakeumi has won 2 of their last 3 matches.