Goeido Gets His Chance.

The controversy around the results of day 12’s final match will likely brew for a while. I firmly believe it will have little or no effect on the eventual outcome of the basho. Mitakeumi remains the man to beat, and the only rikishi who has a credible chance is his day 13 opponent, Goeido. What makes this such a puzzle is that Goeido is the ultimate hot/cold rikishi. When he is engaged, as we saw in Aki 2016, the man is unstoppable. But time and again his sumo falls apart, and he under performs. Now we ask – which Goeido will show up day 13? My money is on Goeido 2.1. Mitakeumi will get a blistering fireball of a fight right from the tachiai, but he will battle back with skill, cunning and no small amount of luck.

While the other 3 rikishi in the hunt group have fantastic records going into day 13, any of them represent more of a random “hit or miss” chance against Mitakeumi, rather than a credible threat. But one thing to keep in mind was the puzzle from a few days ago. Ask yourself, what will be the yusho winner’s record? If it’s anything higher than 12-3, Mitakeumi is the winner. That means that mathematically, Mitakeumi only needs one more win to reach, at minimum, jun-yusho status. Quite impressive for a man who has never reached double digits from San’yaku before.

Nagoya Leaderboard

Leader – Mitakeumi
Chasers – none
Hunters – Goeido, Yutakayama, Tochiozan, Asanoyama

3 Matches Remain.

What We Are Watching Day 13

Akiseyama vs Meisei – Meisei is headed back to Juryo, and his day 13 opponent is likely failing to get promoted to Makuuchi from the Juryo 1 slot. If Akiseyama loses to Meisei, he will have locked in his make-koshi.

Kotoeko vs Onosho – Onosho needs one more win to round out his kachi-koshi. Kotoeko is now deeply into a losing record, and possibly headed towards Juryo as well.

Aoiyama vs Hokutofuji – I think this is a brilliant match, in that I think Hokutofuji needs some bigger challenges before the end of the tournament, and I think Aoiyama needs to enjoy some rough and tumble sumo for day 13. Aoiyama is looking for win #8 today, and I do dearly hope that Hokutofuji makes him work hard. Hokutofuji holds a 3-1 lead over the “Man Mountain”.

Sadanoumi vs Nishikigi – If Sadanoumi should win today, he would get kachi-koshi while giving Nishikigi his make-koshi. Now I think that Nishikigi still has a drive to win, but has been rather listless during the second week of Nagoya. Hopefully there is enough genki left to possibly “win out” and end with a kachi-koshi. Nishikigi leads the series 8-5.

Chiyomaru vs Arawashi – Chiyomaru is still looking to avoid a make-koshi, and he’s against hapless Arawashi, who just can’t seem to get his sumo together in Nagoya.

Tochiozan vs Yutakayama – Two of the hunt group go head to head, and only one will remain. It’s not an easy call as Yutakayama continues to fight really well into the second week, and Tochiozan is likely to bounce back form his day 12 loss. But clearly there will be one less person 2 wins behind Mitakeumi following this match. Yutakayama has won both of their prior matches.

Myogiryu vs Asanoyama – Asanoyama needs to win to stay in distant contention for a spot at the yusho brawl if Goeido prevails. He’s up against Myogiryu who is already kachi-koshi, but likely wants to run up the score.

Ishiura vs Kyokutaisei – A Darwin match where the loser will pick up their 8th loss. For Ishiura, this would mean a near certain demotion back to Juryo to try and work out a change to his sumo that is effective against the larger opponents in Makuuchi.

Takarafuji vs Takakeisho – I am surprised how many times Takakeisho has employed his “wave action” sumo this tournament. I would think that the rest of the rikishi would have figured it out rather quickly, but it must be a real problem when he’s hitting you in the face every 3.2 seconds. Takarafuji will try to wrap him up and shut that down, but I worry he is not genki enough to succeed. Takakeisho has won all 3 of their prior matches.

Abi vs Yoshikaze – The next stop on Yoshikaze’s madding quest for secure a glorious hanyusho, he faces off against Abi on day 13. Now Abi’s reach and speed would normally be just playthings for the berserker, but this is clearly not the normal Yoshikaze. So I expect Abi will push him around a bit, and then Yoshikaze will go down to defeat.

Ikioi vs Chiyonokuni – The big question, of course, is Chiyonokuni fit to compete? I know that Ikioi will not give him an easy match, so I would at least expect Chiyonokuni to show up with a significant tape job on that left elbow. An Ikioi win would secure first kachi-koshi from within the joi. Ikioi holds a 7-3 career lead over Chiyonokuni.

Tamawashi vs Kaisei – Will we see another kotenage? Will Kaisei be holding his elbow on day 13? Kaisei is enormous, and the amount of effort Tamawashi would need to exert to apply that move may be beyond what he can muster on the slick Nagoya dohyo. A win would be Tamawashi’s 8th, and would open the question of his promotion to Sekiwake should Ichinojo fail it reach kachi-koshi.

Ichinojo vs Chiyotairyu – Chiyotairyu is still hunting his 8th win, and the last two days have seen Ichinojo revert back to the version that does enjoy sumo. Chiyotairyu has sadly become rather frantic in his sumo, and that won’t really be very useful against a large, partially mobile beast like Ichinojo.

Endo vs Takayasu – Don’t be surprised if you see an announcement that Takayasu has gone kyujo in the next 5 hours. He was clearly damaged from day 1, and now that he has kachi-koshi, a withdrawal would be understandable. But if this match goes ahead, I will be interested to see if Endo can reverse his act 3 fade that he seems to be in the middle of right now.

Goeido vs Mitakeumi – Here is your chuumoku-no-ichiban. All the other matches have their place, but this one is critical to the yusho race. I would look for Goeido to blast hard and fast out of the tachiai, attempting to overwhelm whatever Mitakeumi might have planned before he can begin any offensive sumo. I would expect Mitakeumi to at least hit and shift at the tachiai, knowing that Goeido will charge with everything he’s got. If Goeido wins, the yusho race closes to a 1 match difference. If Mitakeumi wins, he eliminates his strongest competitor. Goeido holds an 8-3 career advantage over Mitakeumi, but Mitakeumi has won 2 of their last 3 matches.