A lot is still at stake on the final weekend, but the promotion/demotion picture is coming into focus sufficiently for us to take a preliminary look at the banzuke implications of the remaining action.

Ozeki: with his 8th win, Kotozakura has cleared kadoban. Combined with Onosato’s 10 wins, this means we’ll have two Ozeki in good standing in May. Daieisho now has 20 wins at Sekiwake over the past two basho; one or two more, and we’ll have to start taking an Ozeki run seriously.

Sekiwake/Komusubi: S1e Daieisho (9-4) has successfully defended his rank. S1w Oho (5-8) will lose his, but can still limit his drop to Komusubi by winning out. Kirishima and Abi both sport 6-7 records at Komusubi and will need to win out to hold rank. By reaching 8 wins at the top of the maegashira ranks, M1e Wakatakakage should definitely return to San’yaku, regardless of whether or not any slots come open. Yusho race leader M4e Takayasu (11-2) should also have an undeniable promotion claim unless he collapses down the stretch. The other Onami brother, M1w Wakamotoharu (7-6) needs one more win to have a shot, though his chances will depend on other results. Others still in the conversation are M6w Takerufuji (9-4) and M7w Tamawashi (9-4).

Makuuchi/Juryo: The only certain demotion is M12e Nishikifuji (0-2-11). M17w Shirokuma (5-8) is on the brink, and even winning out won’t necessarily save him. M12e Takarafuji (3-10) and M10e Nishikigi (2-11) both need two wins for safety, while Mitakeumi, Asakoryu, Ryuden, and Shonannoumi need one apeice. Everyone else is guaranteed a spot in the top division in May, but the number of exchanges is still highly uncertain. J1e Tamashoho (8-5) and J3e Roga (9-4) are set for an immediate return to Makuuchi. J2e Kayo (8-5) will earn a top-division debut with one more win, and may have already done enough depending on how the demotion candidates fare down the stretch. Also in the running are J6w Hidenoumi (9-4), J3w Tochitaikai (7-6), and J5w Fujiseiun (8-5). His loss to Kayo probably knocked out record-setting rookie and last man in the division J14w Kusano (12-1) out of the promotion picture; he can console himself with a Juryo yusho and a spot much higher on the banzuke in May.

Juryo/Makushita: As detailed in my day 11 post, little has been decided here. The promotion order is roughly as follows: Ms1e Miyagi (3-3) if he wins, Ms1w Ishizaki (3-3) if he wins, Ms3w Mudoho (4-2), Ms2e Daiamami (3-3) if he wins, Ms4w Mita (4-2). Anyone on this list could still end up first in the promotion queue, or low enough to miss out. On the other side of the line between heaven and hell, injury victim J12w Kiryuko is certain to go down, J14e Otsuji (4-9) is all-but-certain to join him, and absent J2w Kitanowaka may be demoted depending on the number and strength of the promotion cases. J8e Hokutofuji (3-10) needs one more win and possibly two in order to avoid dropping from the sekitori ranks for the first time since his Juryo debut in 2016. Nabatame and Kazekeno are the other endangered incumbents; they’ll be safe with one more win. Tomorrow, Miyagi and Ishizaki will fight crossover bouts against Hokutofuji and Kazekeno, respectively, while Mudoho will try to strengthen his promotion claim against Ms9e Kyokukaiyu. Daiamami and Mita’s final bouts will take place on senshuraku, with their opponents being decided based on how the promotion/demotion picture looks after tomorrow’s action.

And we have a winner! Ms27e Oshoryu pulled down Ms39e Kawazoe to finish as the sole 7-0 rikishi in the third division and take the yusho. He will be rewarded with a spot in the promotion zone in May, which will be his highest career rank. Debuting in 2019, Oshoryu (then known as Motobayashi) got off to a scorching start, becoming one of only a handful of wrestlers to ever start 21-0, with consecutive yusho in the three lowest divisions. He ran his record to 24-0 in the next basho, his Makushita debut, before picking up his first loss and finishing 4-3. Oshoryu struggled in upper Makushita for the next couple of years, and since then has had two injury stints that dropped him to Jonidan and Sandanme, respectively. Let’s see if he can convert his rank in May into a sekitori debut five years after it seemed like an inevitability.

The last man before Oshoryu to start his career 21-0 was none other than fan favorite Ms30w Enho (6-1), whose only loss was to Oshoryu and who himself is coming back from a neck injury that dropped him all the way down to Jonokuchi. Since returning last July, he’s posted five consecutive 6-1 records. He should be ranked around Ms11 in May, so he’d need a 7-0 record for a Juryo promotion, which might be tough given the likely competition, but a good score should put him in good position to earn promotion in July.

Among those competing for the Makushita yusho in May will be another injury victim, former Ozeki Asanoyama, who took the Sandanme yusho without much credible opposition. It’s not a guarantee, but he’s very likely to be ranked Ms15 or higher, where another 7-0 would return him to Juryo. Others to keep an eye on in May include Kawazoe (6-1), who may or may not just make it into the extended promotion zone, as well as our two impressive Ms60TD debutants from Fujishima beya, Goshima (6-1) and Fukuzaki (5-2). The Natsu third-division yusho race promises a lot of excitement!

Please see this post for an intro to my third-division coverage. I figured I might as well start with the bracket. The Elite Eight is interesting indeed. We have former sekitori and salt thrower extraordinaire Akua, fan favorite comeback kid Enho, his stablemates Kawazoe and Seihakuho, and the two exciting Ms60TD debutants Goshima and Fukuzaki from Fujishima beya, who continued to look dominant in their round of 16 bouts. The quarterfinals are filled out by borderline prospect Nobehara and former mega-prospect Oshoryu, who is on yet another post-injury comeback trail after starting his career with 3 consecutive 7-0 lower-division yusho back in 2019, one of only a handful of rikishi to ever do so.

Akua won with his favorite kakenage and still has hopes of an automatic Juryo promotion if he can go 7-0. Enho pulled off a slick uwatedashinage in the second yusho bracket match between Isegahama and Fujishima beya this basho (Satorufuji defeated Fujinoyama back on day 3). And we have more of those on the docket, as the right side of the bracket is filled entirely by these two heya. Since wrestlers from the same heya can’t meet except in a playoff, it should be Kawazoe vs. Goshima and Seihakuho vs. Fukuzaki in the quarterfinals on day 9.

In the regular promotion zone (Ms1-Ms5), January champion Ms3w Mudoho (Oho’s brother) is the only rikishi to reach 3 wins after 4 rounds of bouts. He has a good shot at promotion with two more wins, and could luck out with one. Both Ms1’s, Miyagi and Ishizaki (Asakoryu’s brother), are 2-2 and must go 2-1 or better from here to earn a sekitori debut. Former Juryo man and entertaining tsuppari machine Tochimaru is in decent shape for promotion with a 2-2 record at Ms2w. Recent sekitori regular Ms2e Daiamami is not mathematically out of it at 1-3, but he’s looked terrible, with his only win coming today against the even more hapless Ms5w Tenshoho, who is out of the running at 0-4. Ms4w Mita (2-2) would have a shot if he wins out from here. Oh, and former Ozeki Asanoyama is 3-0 and has to be the favorite in the Sandanme yusho race.

Stay tuned for continued coverage as the third-division yusho and promotion races unfold! The only relevant action tomorrow is Mudoho’s visit to Juryo to take on J12e Hitoshi (5-2), so the next update will likely be posted on day 9.