A lot is still at stake on the final weekend, but the promotion/demotion picture is coming into focus sufficiently for us to take a preliminary look at the banzuke implications of the remaining action.

Ozeki: with his 8th win, Kotozakura has cleared kadoban. Combined with Onosato’s 10 wins, this means we’ll have two Ozeki in good standing in May. Daieisho now has 20 wins at Sekiwake over the past two basho; one or two more, and we’ll have to start taking an Ozeki run seriously.

Sekiwake/Komusubi: S1e Daieisho (9-4) has successfully defended his rank. S1w Oho (5-8) will lose his, but can still limit his drop to Komusubi by winning out. Kirishima and Abi both sport 6-7 records at Komusubi and will need to win out to hold rank. By reaching 8 wins at the top of the maegashira ranks, M1e Wakatakakage should definitely return to San’yaku, regardless of whether or not any slots come open. Yusho race leader M4e Takayasu (11-2) should also have an undeniable promotion claim unless he collapses down the stretch. The other Onami brother, M1w Wakamotoharu (7-6) needs one more win to have a shot, though his chances will depend on other results. Others still in the conversation are M6w Takerufuji (9-4) and M7w Tamawashi (9-4).

Makuuchi/Juryo: The only certain demotion is M12e Nishikifuji (0-2-11). M17w Shirokuma (5-8) is on the brink, and even winning out won’t necessarily save him. M12e Takarafuji (3-10) and M10e Nishikigi (2-11) both need two wins for safety, while Mitakeumi, Asakoryu, Ryuden, and Shonannoumi need one apeice. Everyone else is guaranteed a spot in the top division in May, but the number of exchanges is still highly uncertain. J1e Tamashoho (8-5) and J3e Roga (9-4) are set for an immediate return to Makuuchi. J2e Kayo (8-5) will earn a top-division debut with one more win, and may have already done enough depending on how the demotion candidates fare down the stretch. Also in the running are J6w Hidenoumi (9-4), J3w Tochitaikai (7-6), and J5w Fujiseiun (8-5). His loss to Kayo probably knocked out record-setting rookie and last man in the division J14w Kusano (12-1) out of the promotion picture; he can console himself with a Juryo yusho and a spot much higher on the banzuke in May.

Juryo/Makushita: As detailed in my day 11 post, little has been decided here. The promotion order is roughly as follows: Ms1e Miyagi (3-3) if he wins, Ms1w Ishizaki (3-3) if he wins, Ms3w Mudoho (4-2), Ms2e Daiamami (3-3) if he wins, Ms4w Mita (4-2). Anyone on this list could still end up first in the promotion queue, or low enough to miss out. On the other side of the line between heaven and hell, injury victim J12w Kiryuko is certain to go down, J14e Otsuji (4-9) is all-but-certain to join him, and absent J2w Kitanowaka may be demoted depending on the number and strength of the promotion cases. J8e Hokutofuji (3-10) needs one more win and possibly two in order to avoid dropping from the sekitori ranks for the first time since his Juryo debut in 2016. Nabatame and Kazekeno are the other endangered incumbents; they’ll be safe with one more win. Tomorrow, Miyagi and Ishizaki will fight crossover bouts against Hokutofuji and Kazekeno, respectively, while Mudoho will try to strengthen his promotion claim against Ms9e Kyokukaiyu. Daiamami and Mita’s final bouts will take place on senshuraku, with their opponents being decided based on how the promotion/demotion picture looks after tomorrow’s action.