With the June 30 release of the banzuke approaching, it’s time for the Crystal Ball to weigh in. Scroll to the end if you just want to see the guess, and let me know what you think in the comments.

The named ranks

Onosato’s record-setting promotion to sumo’s highest rank has been confirmed, so we will have two Yokozuna on the banzuke for the first time since Aki 2021, when Hakuho retired immediately after Terunofuji’s promotion. We have to go back even further, to Haru 2020, for the last meeting between two Yokozuna (Hakuho and Kakuryu). Even though Onosato (14-1) outperformed the reigning Y1e Hoshoryu (12-3), I’ve opted to keep the latter on the East side, as the newcomer to the rank usually debuts behind the incumbents unless the difference in performance is extreme. Since two Ozeki are required, and we are down to one, Onosato will fill in as a Yokozuna-Ozeki on the banzuke (a role last filled by Terunofuji at Natsu 2023), with Kotozakura filling the sole O1e rank.

We will have three Sekiwake: S1e Daieisho (10-5) and S1w Kirishima (11-4), who both posted double-digit wins at the rank, and S2w Wakatakakage, whose 12 wins at Komusubi are sufficient to force open an extra slot. I’ve opted not to reorder Daiesho and Kirishima despite the one-win difference in performance, and I’ve placed Wakatakakage at S2w to balance out Kotozakura.

Wakatakakage’s promotion and the demotion of fellow Komusubi Takayasu (6-9) requires filling two Komusubi slots. Given that no one ranked M1-M5 posted a winning record, M6e Oshoma (10-5) is the obvious candidate for K1e. M9e Aonishiki (11-4) has the second-best claim and should make his sanyaku debut at K1w in only his third top-division tournament. Although this seems like an extreme over-promotion, Aonishiki’s rank and record in a vacuum corresponds to M2e, so it’s not a huge leap to Komusubi, and similar promotions have happened in the past when the rank needed to be filled. The alternatives I’ve seen proposed, such as not promoting Wakatakakage or keeping Takayasu at K1w, are really not something that’s ever been done in the past.

The rank-and-file

I won’t go through all the choices I’ve made, just the ones that don’t seem straightforward. I’ve placed Takayasu at M1e, which is a very lenient demotion, but there is precedent, including in cases like this banzuke when M1e went 7-8. Anywhere else, keeping someone in place after a 7-8 record is a perfectly reasonable option, but I don’t think they want to do it at the very top maegashira rank. So I have Wakamotoharu sliding over to M1w, followed by half-rank demotions for Oho and Abi. One could push the M8 duo of Onokatsu and Kinbozan, both 10-5, higher than M3, but they are getting their full 5-rank promotions, and their position outside the joi should mean they lose any tiebreakers.

Then we come to one of the tricky choices. M3e Tamawashi, M3w Hiradoumi, and M4e Takerufuji all finished 6-9 and will be placed on the banzuke in that order. All were in the joi. So where do we slot in M7e Hakuoho (8-7), whose rank and record place him in a virtual tie with Tamawashi? Anywhere from 4e (before the trio) to 5w (after them) would be defensible. I’ve gone back and forth on this—all historical precedent suggests Hakuoho should be ranked first, but the banzuke committee has shown a strong recent tendency to favor higher rank. I feel like I have to go with the evidence though, and opt for Hakuoho at M4e; if this is wrong, it will be an interesting data point for future banzuke.

The next problem spot is the ordering of M13w Sadanoumi (10-5), M2w Gonoyama (4-11) and M4w Ichiyamamoto (5-10). Sadanoumi ought to be one rank ahead by rank and record, but this hasn’t been enough recently to overcome preference in favor of the joi rikishi. And for those, I’d normally favor rank, but last banzuke’s placement of Ichiyamamoto ahead of Chiyoshoma is making me rethink this. So my guess has Ichiyamamoto-Gonoyama-Sadanoumi, but nothing would surprise me here, though I see little reason for Sadanoumi to be ranked between the other two. The M11-M12 ranks, where I’ve gone with Chiyoshoma–Tokihayate–Asakoryu–Midorifuji, could again see almost any ordering of this quartet.

And then we have to decide who is coming up from Juryo and where to place them. Despite his extremely impressive performance, I went with a conservative M14e placement for two-time Juryo champion J1w Kusano (13-2). In recent years, only a handful of wrestlers coming up from the second division have been ranked higher, so I don’t see the banzuke committee pushing him ahead of Shodai or Churanoumi. Then it gets tricky. As I mentioned in my banzuke preview post, I see J5w Wakaikari (12-3), J2e Hidenoumi (9-6), J1e Mitakeumi (8-7) and J7w Kotoeiho (11-4) joining Kusano on the way up, with M11w Shishi (4-11) just surviving in Makuuchi, though it would not be a shock if M16w Nishikigi (6-9) survived at the expense of Kotoeiho. The guys being promoted should be ranked in the order above, so it’s just a question of where to intersperse incumbents M14e Kotoshoho (6-4-5), M16e Kayo (7-8), and the above-mentioned Shishi. My choices here were heavily influenced by what happened on the last banzuke, where M10w Shonannoumi (4-11) ended up ahead of J2e Kayo 9-6, M10e Nishikigi (3-12) was placed ahead of J1e Tamashoho (8-7), and M16e Asakoryu (6-9) stayed ahead of J3w Tochitaikai (9-6). If the banzuke committee stays consistent (ha!), this should place Kotoshoho ahead of Hidenoumi and Shishi ahead of Mitakeumi (Kayo is locked into M16e).

We’ll find out how the rankings actually shake out a week from now.