Andy has questions:

Might Wakatakakage force a third Sekiwake slot to open up? Who will be demoted, who will earn promotion? Does anyone want to be Komusubi in Nagoya?

We’re here for (some) answers!

Yokozuna/Ozeki

Yokozuna Hoshoryu (10-3) did a credible job of staying in the yusho race, and earned his “Yokozuna kachi-koshi” (10+ wins; a term coined by Harumafuji). Hopefully, his physical condition can continue to improve and he can mount a stronger challenge to Onosato in July, when the latter will of course join him at the top rank. Ozeki Kotozakura (8-5) has avoided kadoban, so we are guaranteed at least three Y/O on the banzuke through September.

Sanyaku

Daieisho and Kirishima will be sekiwake again in July, as today’s loss should have ended any faint hopes of promotion for the former, while the latter has to really rue his 8-7 in March. With one more win, komusubi Wakatakakage (10-3) would force an extra slot and join them; he is 3-0 against tomorrow’s opponent, Hiradoumi. Komusubi Takayasu (4-9) is out. So we’ll have either one or two open slots, with two looking a lot more likely. M1e Wakamotoharu (6-7) would claim the first available spot by winning out, but is out of the running with one more loss. The other leading contender is M2e Abi (7-6), who needs one more win for his kachi-koshi; he should be a lock for an available slot with a 9-6, and that may even be enough to force an extra slot if WTK loses out and his brother wins out (though that’s 6 bouts that all need to go a certain way). At 8-7, Abi could conceivably get passed by M6e Oshoma (8-5) or M8e Onokatsu (9-4) if they win out, and that duo would then also be in the lead if WMH and Abi both finish make-koshi. M7e Hakuoho (8-5) and M9e Aonishiki (9-4) still have a shot if a lot of results go their way. I haven’t run through all the permutations, but there might be vanishingly unlikely scenarios in which M3w Hiradoumi (6-7) or maybe even M8w Kinobozan (8-5) could end up at komusubi by winning out.

Division Exchanges

I’ve covered what we know about Juryo <-> Makushita in a previous post. What about Makuuchi <-> Juryo? On the top-division side, M18e Tochitaikai’s (3-10) debut will end after a single basho. M17e Tamashoho (4-9) is set to join him unless he wins out and a lot of other results go his way. M15w Shonannoumi (4-9) is in only slightly better shape. Others still looking for a win or two to ensure a stay are M11w Shishi (3-10), M15e Ryuden (5-8), and M16w Nishikigi (6-7 after a 5-0 start).

In the second division, J1w Kusano (11-2), who arguably should have been promoted last time after his 14-1 yusho from the bottom of the division, is leaving no doubt this time. His sole chaser J5w Wakaikari (10-3) has also likely done enough for a top-division debut, and one more win will make that a certainty. J2e Hidenoumi (8-5) and J1e Mitakeumi (7-6) each need one more win for an undeniable promotion case. The J7 duo of Tomokaze and Kotoeiho, both 9-4, must win out and hope for favorable results elsewhere to have a shot. Tomorrow, we’ll get Mitakeumi vs. Tomokaze and Hidenoumi vs. Kotoeiho.

The title decider between Ms3e Otsuji and Ms39w Fukuzaki was quick but competitive. Otsuji won the tachiai and pushed Fukuzaki back. The March debutant moved sideways and grabbed Otsuji’s arm, pulling and then pushing him to the tawara. Otsuji rallied and pushed Fukuzaki across the ring, where the latter tried one final deflection maneuver. This glanced off Otsuji though, and exposed Fukuzaki’s back to his opponent, who quickly capitalized, winning by okuridashi. So Otsuji will be making an immediate return to Juryo, where he’ll hope to improve on his 5-10 March debut. He will be taking the place vacated by absent Wakanosho. Otsuji is the first Juryo dropout to immediately claim the Makushita yusho since Tokihayate did it exactly two years ago.

After Otsuji, things get murky in the promotion race. The remaining contenders are Ms4e Ishizaki, Ms4w Kotokuzan, and Ms5e Kyokukaiyu, all 4-2. Everyone else in the promotion zone is make-koshi after both Dewanoryu and Kitanowaka lost to Juryo opponents. So the exchanges will come down to who among the remaining trio can win their final bout, and how many demotable records there are in Juryo. Kyokukaiyu fights Ms8 Nishinoryu tomorrow; he must win to potentially avoid being last in the promotion queue and have any realistic chance of promotion. The Ms4 duo are being saved for Day 15 exchange bouts against the two most-endangered Juryo incumbents. J14w Mudoho (5-8) is set to be one of these; the other will come from among J10w Hatsuyama (4-9), J13w Daiamami (6-7), J13e Miyanokaze (6-7), and J12w Nabatame (6-7), depending on Day 14 results. I’ll give my best guess for what is likely to happen in my usual post-basho wrap-up post.

Ms60TD debutant Gyotoku looked stronger, but March debutant Ms39w Fukuzaki had better footwork, winning by oshidashi after deflecting his opponent to the side. Similarly, Ms3e Otsuji was driven to the bales by Ms16w Gojinyu but grabbed the belt and turned the tables with a last-gasp uwatenage. So it’s Otsuji vs. Fukuzaki on Day 13 for all the marbles.

In the promotion race, Otsuji (6-0) will be making an immediate return to Juryo. Ms1w Akua (2-4) was the only one of the six remaining promotion contenders to lose, and is now out of the running. The promotion queue after Otsuji is roughly as follows: Ms1e Kitanowaka (3-3) with a win, Ms4e Ishizaki (4-2) with a win, Ms2e Dewanoryu (3-3) with a win, Ms4w Kotokuzan (4-2), and Ms5e Kyokukaiyu (4-2). Dewanoryu will try his luck in Juryo tomorrow against endangered J13w Daiamami (5-6). The rest of the action will unfold over the final 3 days, likely with a series of crossover bouts.

The quarterfinal bracket matches took place today. In the bottom half of the bracket, Ms60TD debutant Gyotoku easily powered out veteran Kototsubasa, and March debutant Ms39w Fukuzaki defeated Chiyooga with a quick push-pull maneuver. In the top half, Fukuzaki’s heya-mate Goshima lost a hard-fought match by tsukidashi to Ms16w Gojinyu, who is ranked just outside the extended promotion zone, so even a 7-0 won’t get him to Juryo. Gojinyu debuted at Sd100TD as Kanzaki three years ago, and promptly won the Sandanme yusho. He’s been in Makushita ever since, rising as high as Ms8. Is this his breakthrough basho? Finally, Ms3e Otsuji crushed out Nishinoryu, who put up a fair bit of resistance but couldn’t turn the tables at the tawara. So it’ll be Otsuji vs. Gojinyu and Fukuzaki vs. Gyotoku on Day 11 to see who makes the finals. Goshima’s elimination means that all four semifinalists hail from different heya, guaranteeing that a single 7-0 champion will be crowned on Day 13.

In the promotion race, Otsuji (5-0) will be making an immediate return to Juryo. Both Ms1’s, Kitanowaka and Akua, lost today to drop to 2-3. The only remaining path for them is winning out, which would make Kitanowaka’s promotion certain and Akua’s very likely. The others still in contention are Ms2e Dewanoryu (2-3), Ms4e Ishizaki (3-2), Ms4w Kotokuzan (3-2), and Ms5e Kyokukaiyu (3-2); all must win out to have a shot. The only relevant action tomorrow is Kyokukaiyu visiting Juryo to fight Mudoho (against whom he’s 2-0), so come back on Wednesday for updates on the yusho and promotion races.